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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Solar Power System Evaluated for the Human Exploration of Mars

The electric power system is a crucial element of any mission for the human exploration of the Martian surface. The bulk of the power generated will be delivered to crew life support systems, extravehicular activity suits, robotic vehicles, and predeployed in situ resource utilization (ISRU) equipment. In one mission scenario, before the crew departs for Mars, the ISRU plant operates for 435 days producing liquefied methane and oxygen for ascent-stage propellants and water for crew life support. About 200 days after ISRU production is completed, the crew arrives for a 500-day surface stay. In this scenario, the power system must operate for a total of 1130 days (equivalent to 1100 Martian "sols"), providing 400 MW-hr of energy to the ISRU plant and up to 18 kW of daytime user power. A photovoltaic power-generation system with regenerative fuel cell (RFC) energy storage has been under study at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. The conceptual power system is dominated by the 4000- m2 class photovoltaic array that is deployed orthogonally as four tent structures, each approximately 5 m on a side and 100-m long. The structures are composed of composite members deployed by an articulating mast, an inflatable boom, or rover vehicles, and are subsequently anchored to the ground. Array panels consist of thin polymer membranes with thin-film solar cells. The array is divided into eight independent electrical sections with solar cell strings operating at 600 V. Energy storage is provided by regenerative fuel cells based on hydrogen-oxygen proton exchange membrane technology. Hydrogen and oxygen reactants are stored in gaseous form at 3000 psi, and the water produced is stored at 14.7 psi. The fuel cell operating temperature is maintained by a 40-m2 deployable pumped-fluid loop radiator that uses water as the working fluid. The power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture features eight independent, regulated 600-Vdc channels. Power management and distribution power cables use various gauges of copper conductors with ethylene tetrafluoroethylene insulation. To assess power system design options and sizing, we developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict detailed power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled the requisite Mars surface environments: solar insolation, Sun angles, dust storms, dust deposition, and thermal and ultraviolet radiation. Using this code, trade studies were performed to assess performance and mass sensitivities to power system design parameters (photovoltaic array geometry and orientation) and mission parameters (landing date and landing site latitude, terrain slope, and dust storm activity). Mission analysis cases were also run. Power results are shown in this graph for an analysis case with a September 1, 2012, landing date; 18.95 North latitude landing site; two seasonal dusts storms; and tent arrays. To meet user load requirements and the ISRU energy requirement, an 8-metric ton (MT) power system and 4000-m2 photovoltaic array area were required for the assumed advanced CuInS2 thin-film solar cell technology. In this figure, the top curve is the average daytime photovoltaic array power, the middle curve is average daytime user load power, and the bottom curve is nighttime power. At mission day 1, daytime user power exceeds 120 kW before falling off to 80 kW at the end of the mission. Throughout the mission, nighttime user power is set to the nighttime power requirement. In this analysis, "nighttime" is defined as the 13- to 15-hr period when array power output is below the daytime power requirement. During dust storms, power system capability falls off dramatically so that by mission day 900, a daily energy balance cannot be maintained. Under these conditions, the ISRU plant is placed in standby mode, and the regenerative fuel cell energy storage is gradually discharged to meet user loads.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microscopic entropy of rotating electrically charged AdS 4 black holes from field theory localization

We employ supersymmetric localization to determine the exact partition function of 3d N = 2 gauge theories on a background given by a round S 2 fibered over a circle and certain complexified background fields. The Coulomb branch localization locus includes monopole configurations, and the partition function reduces to a matrix model. We consider the partition function of the ABJM theory on this background as an explicit case. We verify that the large-N limit of the ABJM theory partition function produces, in the Cardy limit, the entropy function of the dual rotating, electrically charged asymptotically AdS 4 supersymmetric black holes and thus provides a microscopic explanation for the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1992

The role of spatial attention in visual word processing

Subjects made lexical decisions on a target letter string presented above or below fixation. In Experiments 1 and 2, target location was cued 100 ms in advance of target onset. Responses were faster on validly than on invalidly cued trials. In Experiment 3, the target was sometimes accompanied by irrelevant stimuli on the other side of fixation; in such cases, responses were slowed (a spatial filtering effect). Both cuing and filtering effects on response time were additive with effects of word frequency and lexical status (words vs. nonwords). These findings are difficult to reconcile with claims that spatial attention is less involved in processing familiar words than in unfamiliar words and nonwords. The results can be reconciled with a late-selection locus of spatial attention only with difficulty, but are easily explained by early-selection models.

Mccann, Robert S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid characterization and failure analysis of 6276 rooftop-harvested photovoltaic connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors, which link modules in series and connect PV strings in parallel, have increasingly been recognized as a primary contributor to PV system failures and a source of numerous fire incidents. However, publicly available data on the rates and types of connector failures are scarce, primarily due to the proprietary nature of the information and the need for comprehensive analysis. This study represents the first large-scale investigation of harvested PV connectors, drawing from a dataset of 6276 connectors from residential rooftop solar systems across the United States. The outcome of this work is twofold: 1) we have established a rapid characterization method for large populations of harvested connectors, incorporating visual inspection, resistance measurements, and X-ray imaging; and 2) the analysis made possible by our rapid-processing method has revealed, for a population of connector models provided by a single rooftop installer, failure statistics and insights for various connector makes and models, installation practices, operating currents, and internal component displacements. This research identifies common failure modes that could be considered in future connector designs standards, and operations and maintenance practices, to ultimately improve the reliability of this vital component of PV infrastructure.

MC4↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmological Parameters from the 2008 Power Spectrum

We present cosmological parameters derived from the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation observed at 148 GHz and 218 GHz over 296 deg(exp 2) with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) during its 2008 season. ACT measures fluctuations at scales 500 < l < 10,000. We fit a model for the lensed CMB, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ), and foreground contribution to the 148 GHz and 218 GHz power spectra, including thermal and kinetic SZ, Poisson power from radio and infrared point sources, and clustered power from infrared point sources. At l = 3000, about half the power at 148 GHz comes from primary CMB after masking bright radio sources. The power from thermal and kinetic SZ is estimated to be Beta(sub 3000) is identical to 6.8 +/- 2.9 mu K (exp 2), where Beta (sub l) is identical to l(l + 1) C(sub l)/2pi. The IR Poisson power at 148 GHz is Bewta(sub 3000) 7.8 +/- 0.7 muK(exp 2) (C(sub l) = 5.5 +/- 0.5 nK(exp 2)), and a clustered IR component is required with Beta (sub 3000) = 4.6 +/- 0.9 muK(exp 2), assuming an analytic model for its power spectrum shape. At 218 GHz only about 15% of the power, approximately 27 mu K(exp 2), is CMB anisotropy at l = 3000. The remaining 85% is attributed to IR sources (approximately 50% Poisson and 35% clustered), with spectral index alpha = 3.69 +/- 0.14 for flux scaling as S(nu) varies as nu(sup alpha). We estimate primary cosmological parameters from the less contaminated 148 GHz spectrum, marginalizing over SZ and source power. The ACDM cosmological model is a good fit to the data (chi square/dof = 29/46), and ACDM parameters estimated from ACT+Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) are consistent with the seven-year WMAP limits, with scale invariant n(sub s) = 1 excluded at 99.7% confidence level (CL) (3 sigma). A model with no CMB lensing is disfavored at 2.8 sigma. By measuring the third to seventh acoustic peaks, and probing the Silk damping regime, the ACT data improve limits on cosmological parameters that affect the small-scale CMB power. The ACT data combined with WMAP give a 6 sigma detection of primordial helium, with Y(sub p) = 0.313 +/- 0.044, and a 4 sigma detection of relativistic species, assumed to be neutrinos, with N(sub eff) = 5.3 +/- 1.3 (4.6 +/- 0.8 with BAO+H(sub 0) data). From the CMB alone the running of the spectral index is constrained to be d(sub s) / d ln k = -0,034 +/- 0,018, the limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio is r < 0,25 (95% CL), and the possible contribution of Nambu cosmic strings to the power spectrum is constrained to string tension G(sub mu) < 1.6 x 10(exp -7) (95% CL),

Dunkley, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Islands far outside the horizon

Information located in an entanglement island in semiclassical gravity can be nonperturbatively reconstructed from distant radiation, implying a radical breakdown of effective field theory. We show that this occurs well outside of the black hole stretched horizon. We compute the island associated to large-angular momentum Hawking modes of a four-dimensional Schwarzschild black hole. These modes typically fall back into the black hole but can be extracted to infinity by relativistic strings or, more abstractly, by asymptotic boundary operators constructed using the timelike tube theorem. Remarkably, we find that their island can protrude a distance of order $\sqrt{\ell_p{r}_{\textrm{hor}}}$ outside the horizon. This is parametrically larger than the Planck scale ℓ p and is comparable to the Bohr radius for supermassive black holes. Therefore, in principle, a distant observer can determine experimentally whether the black hole information paradox is resolved by complementarity, or by a firewall.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward distinguishing Dirac from Majorana neutrino mass with gravitational waves

We propose a new method toward distinguishing the Dirac versus Majorana nature of neutrino masses from the spectrum of gravitational waves (GWs) associated with neutrino mass genesis. Motivated by the principle of generating small neutrino masses without tiny Yukawa couplings, we assume generic seesaw mechanisms for both Majorana and Dirac neutrino masses. For Majorana neutrinos, we further assume a spontaneously broken gauged U ( 1 ) B − L symmetry, independently of the type of Majorana seesaw mechanism, which gives a cosmic string induced GW signal flat over a wide range of frequencies. For Dirac neutrinos, we assume the spontaneous breaking of a Z 2 symmetry, the minimal symmetry choice associated with all Dirac seesaw mechanisms, which is softly broken, generating a peaked GW spectrum from the annihilation of the resulting domain walls. In fact, the GW spectra for all types of Dirac seesaws with such a broken Z 2 symmetry are identical, subject to a mild caveat. As an illustrative example, we study the simplest respective type-I seesaw mechanisms, and show that the striking difference in the shapes of the GW spectra can help differentiate between these Dirac and Majorana seesaws, complementing results of neutrinoless double beta decay experiments. We also discuss detailed implications of the recent NANOGrav data for Majorana and Dirac seesaw models. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling similarities and quasinormal modes of D0 black hole solutions

We study the gravity solution dual to the D0 brane quantum mechanics, or BFSS matrix model, in the ’t Hooft limit. The classical physics described by this gravity solution is invariant under a scaling transformation, which changes the action with a specific critical exponent, sometimes called the hyperscaling violating exponent. We present an argument for this critical exponent from the matrix model side, which leads to an explanation for the peculiar temperature dependence of the entropy in this theory, S ∝ T 9/5 . We also present a similar argument for all other Dp-brane geometries. We then compute the black hole quasinormal modes. This involves perturbing the finite temperature geometry. These perturbations can be easily obtained by a mathematical trick where we view the solution as the dimensional reduction of an Ad S2+9/5 × S 8 geometry.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1995

On the universality of microlensing in quadruple gravitational lenses

It is well known that multiply imaged quasars are likely to be affected by microlensing. Quadruply imaged systems are especially useful laboratories for studying microlensing because their macrolens models are relatively well constrained. We begin with analytical results for a simple family of galaxy models. These results can be used to estimate the magnifications and time delays for the quadruple systems. We compute expected brightness fluctuations due to microlensing in several such systems for a range of source sizes. Among these we treat for the first time the limiting case of a completely unresolved source. For the case of MG 0414+0534 we interpret the discrepant optical-to-radio flux ratios for the different components as the result of microlensing. On the assumption that the lensing galaxy is roughly isothermal this gives a 95% confidence upper limit on the optical source size of 10(exp 16) cm x (mean value of M)/0.1 solar mass(exp 1/2) where (M) is the average stellar mass of the lensing galaxy. For more centrally concentrated macromodels the upper limit is greater. Sufficiently long strings of photometric observations can in principle constrain the degree of concentration.

Witt, Hans J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Power Systems Evaluated for Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicles

Solar electric propulsion (SEP) mission architectures are applicable to a wide range NASA missions including the robotic exploration of the outer planets in the next decade and the human exploration of Mars within the next 2 decades. SEP enables architectures that are very mass efficient with reasonable power levels (1-MW class) aerobrake and cryogenic upper-stage transportation technologies are utilized. In this architecture, the efficient SEP stage transfers the payload from low Earth orbit (LEO) High Energy Elliptical Parking Orbit (HEEPO) within a period of 6 to 12 months. highthrust, cryogenic upper stage and payload then separate from the SEP vehicle for injection to the planetary target, allowing for fast heliocentric trip times. This mission architecture offers a potential reduction in mass to LEO in comparison to alternative all-chemical nuclear propulsion schemes. Mass reductions may allow launch vehicle downsizing enable missions that would have been grounded because of cost constraints. The preceding figure illustrates a conceptual SEP stage design for a human Mars mission. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field designed conceptual SEP vehicle, conceived the mission architecture to use this vehicle, and analyzed the vehicle s performance. This SEP stage has a dry mass of 35 metric tons (MT), 40 MT of xenon propellant, and a photovoltaic array that spans 110 m, providing power to a cluster of eight 100-kW Hall thrusters. The stage can transfer an 80-MT payload and upper stage to the desired HEEPO. Preliminary packaging studies show this space-station-class SEP vehicle meets the proposed "Magnum" launch vehicle and volume requirements with considerable margin. An SEP vehicle for outer planetary missions, such as the Europa Mapper Mission, would be dramatically smaller than human Mars mission SEP stage. In this mission architecture, the SEP power system with the payload to provide spacecraft power throughout the mission. Several photovoltaic array design concepts were considered for the SEP vehicle power system for the human mission to Mars. These include a space station derivative, a SCARLET (Solar Concentrator Arrays with Refractive Linear Element Technology) derivative, and a hybrid inflatable-deployable thin polymer membrane array with thin-film solar cells (as shown in the concept illustration). This concept is based on a design developed for the Next Generation Space Telescope Sun shield. The array is divided into 16 independent electrical sections with 500-V, negative-grounded solar cell strings. The power system employs a channelized, 500-Vdc power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture with lithium ion batteries for energy storage for vehicle and payload secondary loads (the high-power Hall thrusters do not operate in eclipse periods). The 500-V PMAD voltage permits "direct-drive" thruster operation, greatly reducing the power processing unit size, complexity, and power loss. Similar power system architecture, designs, and technology are assumed for the Europa Mapper Mission SEP vehicle. The primary exceptions are that the photovoltaic array is assumed to consist of two rectangular wings and that the power system rating is 15 kW in Earth orbit and 200 W at Europa. To size the SEP vehicle power system, a dedicated Fortran code was developed to predict detailed power system performance, mass, and thermal control requirements. This code also modeled all the relevant Earth orbit environments; that is, the particulate radiation, plasma, meteoroids and debris, ultraviolet radiation, contamination, and thermal conditions. Analysis results for the Human Mars Mission SEP vehicle show a power system mass of 9-MT and photovoltaic array area of 5800-square meters for the thin-membrane design concept with CuInS2 thin-film cells. Power processing unit input power for a thin-membrane array design with three-junction, amorphous SiGe solar cells is shown in the graph. Power falls off rapidly inhe first weeks of the mission because of light-induced (Staebler-Wronksi) solar cell losses. During the next 200 days, power decreases steadily as the SEP stage spirals through the proton belts and sustains the bulk of the mission radiation damage. Once the vehicle apogee is above approximately four Earth radii, little additional degradation is incurred. From 400 to 800 days, a 1100-km "parking" orbit is maintained to await the next payload transfer opportunity. This orbit is below the main proton belt, and thus, little radiation dose is accumulated during this time period. During the second LEO-to-HEEPO transfer, power degrades somewhat further, but power requirements are still met. In comparison, the Europa Mapper SEP vehicle power system had a mass of 150 kg and a thin membrane array area of 100 square meters.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prospects for Heavy Neutral SUSY HIGGS Scalars in the hMSSM and Natural SUSY at LHC Upgrades

We examine production and decay of heavy neutral SUSY Higgs bosons pp→H,A→ττ¯ within the hMSSM and compare against a perhaps more plausible natural supersymmetry scenario dubbed mh125(nat) which allows for a natural explanation for mweak≃mW,Z,h∼100 GeV while maintaining mh≃125 GeV. We evaluate signal against various Standard Model backgrounds from γ,Z→ττ¯, tt¯ and vector boson pair production VV. We combine the transverse mass method for back-to-back (BtB) taus along with the ditau mass peak mττ method for acollinear taus as our signal channels. This technique ultimately gives a boost to the signal significance over the standard technique of using just the BtB signal channel. We evaluate both the 95% CL exclusion and 5σ discovery reach in the mA vs. tanβ plane for present LHC with 139 fb−1, Run 3 with 300 fb−1 and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) with 3000 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. For tanβ=10, the exclusion limits range up to mA∼1, 1.1 and 1.4 TeV, respectively. These may be compared to the range of mA values gleaned from a statistical analysis of the string landscape wherein mA can range up to ∼8 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards natural and realistic E 7 GUTs in F-theory

We consider phenomenological aspects of a natural class of Standard Model-like supersymmetric F-theory vacua realized through flux breaking of rigid E 7 gauge factors. Three generations of Standard Model matter are realized in many of these vacua. We further find that many other Standard Model-like features are naturally compatible with these constructions. For example, dimension-4 and 5 terms associated with proton decay are ubiquitously suppressed. Many of these features are due to the group theoretical structure of E 7 and associated F-theory geometry. In particular, a set of approximate global symmetries descends from the E 7 group, leading to exponential suppression of undesired couplings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large U(1) charges from flux breaking in 4D F-theory models

We study the massless charged spectrum of U(1) gauge fields in F-theory that arise from flux breaking of a nonabelian group. The U(1) charges that arise in this way can be very large. In particular, using vertical flux breaking, we construct an explicit 4D F-theory model with a U(1) decoupled from other gauge sectors, in which the massless/light fields have charges as large as 657. This result greatly exceeds prior results in the literature. We argue heuristically that this result may provide an upper bound on charges for light fields under decoupled U(1) factors in the F-theory landscape. We also show that the charges can be even larger when the U(1) is coupled to other gauge groups.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Experiments on Evolving Software Models of Analog Circuits

Analog circuits are of great importance in electronic system design since the world is fundamentally analog in nature. While the amount of digital design activity far outpaces that of analog design, most digital systems require analog modules for interfacing with the external world. It was recently estimated that approximately 60% of digital application- specific integrated circuit designs incorporated analog circuits. With challenging analog circuit design problems and few analog design engineers, there are economic reasons for automating the analog design process, especially time-to-market considerations. Techniques for analog circuit design automation began appearing about two decades ago. These methods incorporated heuristics [6], knowledge bases [1], simulated annealing [5], and other algorithms. Efforts using techniques from evolutionary computation began appearing over the last few years. These include the use of genetic algorithms to select electronic component values (for example, the resistance value of a resistor), to select circuit topologies, and to design amplifiers using a limited set of canned topologies [4]. A genetic programming-based analog circuit design system has been demonstrated in which the circuit sizes, component values, and the circuit topologies are determined automatically [3]. The genetic-algorithm systems typically represent circuit structures as vectors of parameters encoded in binary strings, while the genetic programming system manipulates tree data structures.

Lohn, Jason D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Completion design improvement using a deep convolutional network

Maximizing stimulated natural and hydraulic fracture network is one of the primary hydraulic fracturing concerns for economic production from a horizontal shale gas well. Geomechanical facies and preexisting fractures in each stage are identified based on similarities in formation characteristics to optimize the locations of perforation clusters. This often requires analyzing large volumes of drilling, Logging While Drilling (LWD) and Measurement While Drilling (MWD) data. In this paper, we develop a methodology that calculates the mechanical specific energy (MSE) using real-time drill string acceleration signals directly from its definition. High resolution vibration signals have been collected using a tri-axial accerlometer, which was an auxiliary tool included in acoustic borehole imager. This technique provides a cost-efficient solution for engineered completion design. Furthermore, we adopt deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with signal processing to build a data pipeline that effectively extracts patterns from dynamic acceleration signals for rock lateral MSE classification. First, we apply discrete wavelet transform and Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) for signal denoising and pattern recognition. Then we construct an image dataset using multi-scale image fusion at pixel level from 3 sensor channels, including axial, lateral acceleration spectrograms and zero-padded revolutions per minute (RPM). The resulted RGB image dataset includes 4,000 images of 5 MSE ranges with various rock strength conditions. Our results demonstrate that the proposed deep learning model can achieve more than 90% classification accuracy. The deep learning results, as a reference source, were applied in selected Marcellus Shale Energy and Environmental Lab (MSEEL) wells engineered completion located in the Marcellus shale gas site.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Characterization and Statistical Analysis of High-Volume Field-Harvested Photovoltaic Connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) installations heavily depend on connectors for efficient module and string interconnections without requiring skilled labor. Yet this seemingly innocuous component of PV systems is a leading cause of module failures, multiple high-profile fires, and lawsuits in the PV industry. This work aims to answer critical questions regarding why connectors fail and the contributing factors to their failure. The study involves collecting and analyzing more than 17,000 field-harvested connectors from various solar installations across the United States. The vast dataset, which includes connector metadata, visual inspections, and resistance measurements, provides unprecedented insight into the state of health of PV connectors across the US, including the geographic locations, connector types, and installation practices most prone to failures. The work presented here describes a novel rapid characterization method for processing large numbers of connectors and is supported by parallel forensic analysis to discern the root causes of failures as well as a levelized cost of lifetime model to determine the economic ramifications of connector failure. Ultimately, the findings may inform PV developers about the best practices to extend connector longevity and lead to more resilient and reliable PV systems.

connectors↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Optical Loss of High-Voltage Degradation Modes in PV Modules Using Spectral Analysis [Slides]

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative ("HV-") and positive ("HV+") polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including: corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (SixNy) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85 degrees C/85% relative humidity included: spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the SixNy coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared to a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. The model suggests one-third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the SixNy coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗