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At least 667 records · Page 37

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: isotopic exchange with ozone and its use as a tracer in the middle atmosphere

Atmospheric heavy ozone is enriched in the isotopes 18O and 17O. The magnitude of this enhancement, of the order of 100%, is very large compared with that commonly known in atmospheric chemistry and geochemistry. The heavy oxygen atom in heavy ozone is therefore useful as a tracer of chemical species and pathways that involve ozone or its derived products. As a test of the isotopic exchange reactions, we successfully carry out a series of numerical experiments to simulate the results of the laboratory experiments performed by Wen and Thiemens [1993] on ozone and CO2. A small discrepancy between the experimental and the model values for 17O exchange is also revealed. The results are used to compute the magnitude of isotopic exchange between ozone and carbon dioxide via the excited atom O(1D) in the middle atmosphere. The model for 18O is in good agreement with the observed values.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Fundamental Properties of O-Type Stars

We present a comprehensive analysis of high-resolution, far-ultraviolet HST STIS, FUSE, and optical spectra of 18 O stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud. Our analysis is based on the OSTAR2002 grid of NLTE metal-line-blanketed model atmospheres calculated with our code TLUSTY. We systematically explore and present the sensitivity of various UV and optical lines to different stellar parameters. We have obtained consistent fits of the UV and the optical spectrum to derive the effective temperature, surface gravity, surface composition, and microturbulent velocity of each star. Stellar radii, masses, and luminosities follow directly. For stars of the same spectral subtype, we find a general good agreement between effective temperature determinations obtained with TLUSTY, CMFGEN, and FASTWIND models, which are all lower than the standard T(sub eff) calibration of O stars. We propose a new calibration between the spectral type and effective temperature based on our results from UV metal lines, as well as optical hydrogen and helium lines. The lower effective temperatures translate into ionizing luminosities that are smaller by a factor of 3 compared to luminosities inferred from previous standard calibrations. The chemical composition analysis reveals that the surface of about 80% of the program stars is moderately to strongly enriched in nitrogen, while showing the original helium, carbon, and oxygen abundances. Our results support the new stellar evolution models that predict that the surface of fast rotating stars becomes nitrogen-rich during the main-sequence phase because of rotationally induced mixing. Enrichment factors are, however, larger than predicted by stellar evolution models. Most stars exhibit the "mass discrepancy" problem, which we interpret as a result of fast rotation that lowers the measured effective gravity. Nitrogen enrichment and low spectroscopic masses are therefore two manifestations of fast rotation. Our study thus emphasizes the importance of rotation in our understanding of the properties of massive stars and provides a framework for investigating populations of low-metallicity massive stars at low and high redshifts.

Heap, Sara R.↗

TEM Analyses of Itokawa Regolith Grains and Lunar Soil Grains to Directly Determine Space Weathering Rates on Airless Bodies

Samples returned from the moon and Asteroid Itokawa by NASA's Apollo Missions and JAXA's Hayabusa Mission, respectively, provide a unique record of their interaction with the space environment. Space weathering effects result from micrometeorite impact activity and interactions with the solar wind. While the effects of solar wind interactions, ion implantation and solar flare particle track accumulation, have been studied extensively, the rate at which these effects accumulate in samples on airless bodies has not been conclusively determined. Results of numerical modeling and experimental simulations do not converge with observations from natural samples. We measured track densities and rim thicknesses of three olivine grains from Itokawa and multiple olivine and anorthite grains from lunar soils of varying exposure ages. Samples were prepared for analysis using a Leica EM UC6 ultramicrotome and an FEI Quanta 3D dual beam focused ion beam scanning electron microscope (FIB-SEM). Transmission electron microscope (TEM) analyses were performed on the JEOL 2500SE 200kV field emission STEM. The solar wind damaged rims on lunar anorthite grains are amorphous, lack inclusions, and are compositionally similar to the host grain. The rim width increases as a smooth function of exposure age until it levels off at approximately 180 nm after approximately 20 My (Fig. 1). While solar wind ion damage can only accumulate while the grain is in a direct line of sight to the Sun, solar flare particles can penetrate to mm-depths. To assess whether the track density accurately predicts surface exposure, we measured the rim width and track density in olivine and anorthite from the surface of rock 64455, which was never buried and has a surface exposure age of 2 My based on isotopic measurements. The rim width from 64455 (60-70nm) plots within error of the well-defined trend for solar wind amorphized rims in Fig. 1. Measured solar flare track densities are accurately reflecting the surface exposure of the grains. Track densities correlate with the amorphous rim thicknesses. While the space-weathered rims of anorthite grains are amorphous, the space-weathered rims on both Itokawa and lunar olivine grains show solar wind damaged rims that are not amorphous. Instead, the rims are nanocrystalline with high dislocation densities and sparse inclusions of nanophase Fe metal. The rim thicknesses on the olivine grains also correlate with track density. The Itokawa olivine grains have track densities that indicate surface exposures of approximately 10(exp 5) years. Longer exposures (up to approximately 10(exp 7) years) do not amorphize the rims, as evidenced by lunar soil olivines with high track densities (approximately 10(exp 11) cm(exp -2)). From the combined data, shown in Fig. 1, it is clear that olivine is damaged (but not amorphized) more rapidly by the solar wind compared to anorthite. The olivine damaged rim forms quickly (in approximately 10(exp 6) y) and saturates at approximately 120nm with longer exposure time. The anorthite damaged rims form more slowly, amorphize, and grow thicker than the olivine rims. This is in agreement with numerical modeling data which predicts that solar wind damaged rims on anorthite will be thicker than olivine. However, the models predict that both olivine and anorthite rims will amorphize and reach equilibrium widths in less than 10(exp 3) y, in contrast to what is observed for natural samples. Laboratory irradiation experiments, which show rapid formation of fully amorphous and blistered surfaces from simulated solar wind exposures are also in contrast to observations of natural samples. These results suggest that there is a flux dependence on the type and extent of irradiation damage that develops in olivine. This flux dependence suggests that great caution be used in extrapolating between high-flux laboratory experiments and the natural case, as demonstrated by. We constrain the space weathering rate through analysis of returned samples. Provided that the track densities and the solar wind damaged rim widths exhibited by the Itokawa grains are typical of the fine-grained regions of Itokawa, then the space weathering rate is on the order of 10(exp 5) y. Space weathering effects in lunar soils saturate within a few My of exposure while those in Itokawa regolith grains formed in approximately 10(exp 5) y. Olivine and anorthite respond differently to solar wind irradiation. The space weathering effects in olivine are particularly difficult to reconcile with laboratory irradiation studies and numerical models. Additional measurements, experiments, and modeling are required to resolve the discrepancies among the observations and calculations involving solar wind amorphization of different minerals on airless bodies.

Berger, Eve L.↗

Space Weathering of Olivine: Samples, Experiments and Modeling

Olivine is a major constituent of chondritic bodies and its response to space weathering processes likely dominates the optical properties of asteroid regoliths (e.g. S- and many C-type asteroids). Analyses of olivine in returned samples and laboratory experiments provide details and insights regarding the mechanisms and rates of space weathering. Analyses of olivine grains from lunar soils and asteroid Itokawa reveal that they display solar wind damaged rims that are typically not amorphized despite long surface exposure ages, which are inferred from solar flare track densities (up to 10 (sup 7 y)). The olivine damaged rim width rapidly approaches approximately 120 nm in approximately 10 (sup 6 y) and then reaches steady-state with longer exposure times. The damaged rims are nanocrystalline with high dislocation densities, but crystalline order exists up to the outermost exposed surface. Sparse nanophase Fe metal inclusions occur in the damaged rims and are believed to be produced during irradiation through preferential sputtering of oxygen from the rims. The observed space weathering effects in lunar and Itokawa olivine grains are difficult to reconcile with laboratory irradiation studies and our numerical models that indicate that olivine surfaces should readily blister and amorphize on relatively short time scales (less than 10 (sup 3 y)). These results suggest that it is not just the ion fluence alone, but other variable, the ion flux that controls the type and extent of irradiation damage that develops in olivine. This flux dependence argues for caution in extrapolating between high flux laboratory experiments and the natural case. Additional measurements, experiments, and modeling are required to resolve the discrepancies among the observations and calculations involving solar wind processing of olivine.

Keller, L. P.↗

Evaluation of Near-Surface Air Temperature from Reanalysis over the United States and Ukraine: Application to Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting

In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.

GSOD↗

Assessment of Using Ideal Gas for Predicting Boattail Flow at Cryogenic Temperatures

The applicability of using ideal gas assumptions to simulate high Reynolds number experimental data that was obtained at cryogenic temperatures is examined. Flow over an axisymmetric nozzle boattail model was calculated using reference temperatures of 117 K and 300 K and at Reynolds numbers from 50 to 200 million per meter. From the testing perspective, pressure, compression factor, and isentropic coefficients calculated using one-dimensional real gas equations are used to examine the departure of cryogenic flow from ideal gas flow across the range of temperatures and potential impacts on measured aerodynamic data. Solutions developed using ideal gas assumptions in a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code are compared with experimental data obtained at cryogenic temperatures at two unit Reynolds numbers at freestream Mach numbers of 0.6 and 0.9. Results for several one- and two-equation turbulence models are shown. Predicted pressure coefficient distributions along the nozzle boattail differed from experimental data between 8% to less than 0.5% depending on the turbulence model and Mach number. The greatest discrepancy occurred in the level of static pressure recovery in the recompression region where the flow was separated. Solutions using warm and cryogenic freestream temperatures predicted similar boattail pressure distributions at the same unit Reynolds number.

Nozzle↗

Assessment of Using Ideal Gas for Predicting Boattail Flow at Cryogenic Temperatures

The applicability of using ideal gas assumptions to simulate high Reynolds number experimental data that was obtained at cryogenic temperatures is examined. Flow over an axisymmetric nozzle boattail model was calculated using reference temperatures of 117 K and 300 K and at Reynolds numbers from 50 to 200 million per meter. From the testing perspective, pressure, compression factor, and isentropic coefficients calculated using one-dimensional real gas equations are used to examine the departure of cryogenic flow from ideal gas flow across the range of temperatures and potential impacts on measured aerodynamic data. Solutions developed using ideal gas assumptions in a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code are compared with experimental data obtained at cryogenic temperatures at two unit Reynolds numbers at freestream Mach numbers of 0.6 and 0.9. Results for several one- and two-equation turbulence models are shown. Predicted pressure coefficient distributions along the nozzle boattail differed from experimental data between 8% to less than 0.5% depending on the turbulence model and Mach number. The greatest discrepancy occurred in the level of static pressure recovery in the recompression region where the flow was separated. Solutions using warm and cryogenic freestream temperatures predicted similar boattail pressure distributions at the same unit Reynolds number.

Nozzle↗

Beyond RMS: Understanding the Evolution of Beam Distributions in High Intensity Linacs

Understanding the evolution of beams with space charge is crucial to design and operation of high intensity linacs. While the community holds a broad understanding of the mechanisms leading to emittance growth and halo formation, there is outstanding discrepancy between measurements and beam evolution models that precludes prediction of halo losses. This may be due in part to insufficient information of the initial beam distribution. This talk will describe work at the SNS Beam Test Facility to directly measure the 6D beam distribution. Full-and-direct 6D measurement has revealed hidden but physically significant dependence between the longitudinal distribution and transverse coordinates. This nonlinear correlation is driven by space charge and reproduced by self-consistent simulation of the RFQ. Omission of this interplane correlation, common when bunches are reconstructed from lower-dimensional measurements, degrades downstream predictions. This talk will also describe the novel diagnostics supporting this work. This includes ongoing improvements to efficiency of the 6D phase space measurement as well as recent achievement of six orders of dynamic range in 2D phase space.

Ruisard, Kiersten↗

Wind Turbine Noise Code Benchmark: A Comparison and Verification Exercise: Preprint

In a number of institutions and companies, researchers and engineers are developing modeling numerical frameworks that are used to predict the aerodynamic noise emission from a wind turbine rotor. The simulation codes vary from empirically-tuned engineering models to high-fidelity computational ones. Their common feature is the fact that they all specifically model the main aerodynamic noise mechanisms occurring at the rotating blades, namely trailing edge noise and turbulent inflow noise. Nevertheless, it can be expected that these different modeling frameworks will produce different results for a same given rotor design, and identical operating conditions. Trailing edge noise is put at the forefront of the study as it is recognized as the main audible source of noise from wind turbines. The present benchmark aims at comparing the results from the different modeling approaches, and drawing some conclusions from these comparisons. This effort, denoted as Wind Turbine Noise Code benchmark, was initiated in 2019 as a joint-activity between the IEA Wind Task 39 (Quiet Wind Turbine Technology) and Task 29 (Detailed Aerodynamics of Wind Turbines, now Task 47). In addition to the investigation of the noise emissions themselves, the rotor aerodynamic characteristics are investigated as they have a significant impact on the noise generation mechanisms. A number of test cases are defined and the aerodynamic and aeroacoustic predictions from the various models are compared. There exist some discrepancies between the different methods, but it is difficult to conclude if one methodology is better than another in order to design a wind turbine with noise as a constraint.

aeroacoustics↗

Investigation of the Thermomechanical Response of Shape Memory Alloy Hybrid Composite Beams

Previous work at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) involved fabrication and testing of composite beams with embedded, pre-strained shape memory alloy (SMA) ribbons. That study also provided comparison of experimental results with numerical predictions from a research code making use of a new thermoelastic model for shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures. The previous work showed qualitative validation of the numerical model. However, deficiencies in the experimental-numerical correlation were noted and hypotheses for the discrepancies were given for further investigation. The goal of this work is to refine the experimental measurement and numerical modeling approaches in order to better understand the discrepancies, improve the correlation between prediction and measurement, and provide rigorous quantitative validation of the numerical model. Thermal buckling, post-buckling, and random responses to thermal and inertial (base acceleration) loads are studied. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured results, thereby quantitatively validating the numerical tool.

Davis, Brian A.↗

Far-ultraviolet spectra and flux distributions of some Orion stars

Far-ultraviolet (950-1800 A) spectra with about 2 A resolution were obtained of a number of stars in Orion during a sounding-rocket flight 1975 December 6. These spectra have been reduced to absolute flux distributions with the aid of preflight calibrations. The derived fluxes are in good agreement with model-atmosphere predictions and previous observations down to about 1200 A. In the 1200-1080 A range, the present results are in good agreement with model predictions but fall above the rocket measurements of Brune, Mount and Feldman. Below 1080 A, our measurements fall below the model predictions, reaching a deviation of a factor of 2 near 1010 A and a factor of 4 near 950 A. The present results are compared with those of Brune et al. via Copernicus U2 observations in this spectral range, and possible sources of discrepancies between the various observations and model-atmosphere predictions are discussed. Other aspects of the spectra, particularly with regard to spectral classification, are briefly discussed.

Carruthers, G. R.↗

Improving Aerosol Simulation over South Asia for Climate and Air Quality Studies

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, the water cycle, and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions found there. However, it has been proved quite challenging to adequately represent the aerosol spatial distribution and magnitude over this critical region in global models (Pan et al. 2014), with the surface concentrations, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and absorbing AOD (AAOD) significantly underestimated, especially in October-January when the agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic aerosol dominate over dust aerosol. In this study, we aim to investigate the causes for such discrepancy in winter by conducting sets of model experiments with NASA's GEOS-5 in terms of (1) spatial resolution, (2) emission amount, and (3) meteorological fields.

Aerosol simulation↗

Measurement of inclusive very forward jet cross sections in proton-lead collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

Measurements of differential cross sections for inclusive very forward jet production in proton-lead collisions as a function of jet energy are presented. The data were collected with the CMS experiment at the LHC in the laboratory pseudorapidity range –6.6 < η < –5.2. Asymmetric beam energies of 4 TeV for protons and 1.58 TeV per nucleon for Pb nuclei were used, corresponding to a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV. Collisions with either the proton (p+Pb) or the ion (Pb+p) traveling towards the negative η hemisphere are studied. The jet cross sections are unfolded to stable-particle level cross sections with p$_{T}$ ≳ 3 GeV, and compared to predictions from various Monte Carlo event generators. In addition, the cross section ratio of p+Pb and Pb+p data is presented. The results are discussed in terms of the saturation of gluon densities at low fractional parton momenta. None of the models under consideration describes all the data over the full jet-energy range and for all beam configurations. Discrepancies between the differential cross sections in data and model predictions of more than two orders of magnitude are observed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Validation of the NOνA experiment 2023-tuning on simulated neutrino-matter interactions

NOνA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that utilizes a two-detector design to study the oscillations of muon neutrinos into electron neutrinos over a baseline of 810 km. The Near Detector (ND) measures the neutrino beam spectrum and composition before oscillation, which is then compared to the oscillated neutrino energy spectrum observed in the Far Detector (FD). In the ND, the neutrinos are detected through their interactions with the heavy target nuclei within the detector. NOνA employs the GENIE neutrino event generator for simulating these neutrino-nucleus interactions. However, the default GENIE prediction does not adequately reproduce the ND data. To address this, NOνA developed a tune of the neutrino interaction models within GENIE version 3:0:6 to minimize discrepancies between the simulated predictions and the observed data in the ND. This dissertation tests the NOνA’s 2023 tune of the GENIE neutrino cross-section simulations by performing a data/simulations comparison for the ND. The analysis employed datasets comprising $2.55\times10^{21}$ protons-on-target (POT) in neutrino beam mode and $1.14\times10^{21}$ POT in antineutrino beam mode. The NOνA tuning of neutrino-matter interaction simulations matches with ND data within the $1\sigma$ error band, overestimating muon neutrino and antineutrino charged current interactions by approximately 6 % and 9 %, respectively. Discrepancies were observed in the energy region dominated by Quasi-Elastic-like interactions. Systematic uncertainties associated with the modeling of the neutrino cross-section, particularly those pertaining Quasi-Elastic like interactions, contributed considerably to the overall error in the simulations. Furthermore, the reconstruction algorithm used in NOνA for particle classification demonstrated significant misidentifications between charged pions and protons, as well as a tendency to overlook additional pions or protons in multi-particle simulated events.

Cortés Parra, Camilo Andrés↗

Orbital Characterization of GJ1108A System, and Comparison of Dynamical Mass with Model-Derived Mass for Resolved Binaries

We report an orbital characterization of GJ1108Aab that is a low-mass binary system in the pre-main-sequence phase. Via the combination of astrometry using adaptive optics and radial velocity measurements, an eccentric orbital solution of e = 0.63 is obtained, which might be induced by the Kozai–Lidov mechanism with a widely separated GJ1108B system. Combined with several observed properties, we confirm that the system is indeed young. Columba is the most probable moving group, to which the GJ1108A system belongs, although its membership to the group has not been established. If the age of Columba is assumed for GJ1108A, the dynamical masses of both GJ1108Aa and GJ1108Ab (M(sub dynamical,GJ1108Aa) = 0.72 ± 0.04 Solar Mass and M(sub dynamical,GJ1108Ab) = 0.30 ± 0.03 Solar Mass) are more massive than what an evolutionary model predicts based on the age and luminosities. We consider that the discrepancy in mass comparison can be attributed to an age uncertainty; the system is likely older than stars in Columba, and effects that are not implemented in classical models such as accretion history and magnetic activity are not preferred to explain the mass discrepancy. We also discuss the performance of the evolutionary model by compiling similar low-mass objects in the evolutionary state based on the literature. Consequently, it is suggested that the current model on average reproduces the mass of resolved low-mass binaries without any significant offsets.

Mizuki, T.↗

Reduced-order CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusion for pellet fueling

This study presents a reduced-order model (ROM) for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusions, focusing on protium (H₂) and deuterium (D₂) piston extruders. Using a 2D axisymmetric ROM in ANSYS-Polyflow, significant computational savings were achieved (runtime reduced from 9∼24 h to 3∼5 min), with extrusion force discrepancies between the 2D ROM and 3D models being on the order of 1%. Parametric studies identified optimal cutoff shear rates in the viscosity model (0.01/s for H₂ and 0.001/s for D₂), providing recommendations for future simulations. Finally, a comprehensive comparison of ROM results with experimental data was performed across varying geometries, cryogenic materials, temperatures, extrusion lengths, and piston velocities. Predictions at low extrusion temperatures met the objective of providing quick and efficient solutions with an acceptable extrusion force error of approximately 10% or less, validating the effectiveness of the 2D ROM approach. However, at high temperatures closer to the triple point, extrusion force error grows, which necessitates developing an improved model that accounts for temperature effects, e.g. melting. Nevertheless, the findings still represent a significant improvement in efficiency of CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogenic extrusion. The ROM framework can also be extended to tritium (T2) and screw extruders, which will ultimately provide a fast and effective tool for optimizing pellet injector design for ITER and future reactor systems.

Fan, Joy [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000229751735)↗

Recent Developments and Challenges Implementing New and Improved Stress Intensity Factor (K) Solutions in NASGRO for Damage Tolerance Analyses

Fatigue crack growth analysis software has been available to damage tolerance analysts for many years in either commercial products or via proprietary in-house codes. The NASGRO software has been publicly available since the mid-80s (known as NASA/FLAGRO up to 1999) and since 2000 has been sustained and further developed by a collaborative effort between Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), and the members of the NASGRO Industrial Consortium. Since the stress intensity factor (K) is the foundation of fracture mechanics and damage tolerance analysis of aircraft structures, a significant focus of development efforts in the past fifteen years has been geared towards enhancing legacy K solutions and developing new and efficient numerical K solutions that can handle the complicated stress gradients computed by today’s analysts using detailed finite element models of fatigue critical locations. This paper provides an overview of K solutions that have been recently implemented or improved for the analysis of geometries such as two unequal through cracks at a hole and two unequal corner cracks at a hole, as well as state-of-the-art weight function models capable of computing K in the presence of univariant and/or bivariant stress gradients and complicated residual stress distributions. Some historical background is provided to review how common K solutions have evolved over the years, including selective examples from the literature and from new research. Challenges and progress in rectifying discrepancies between older legacy solutions and newer models are reviewed as well as approaches and challenges for verification and validation of K solutions. Finally, a summary of current challenges and future research and development needs is presented. A key theme throughout the presentation of this paper will be how members of the aerospace industry have collaborated with software developers to develop a practical analysis tool that is used world-wide to support new design as well as the ongoing sustainment and airworthiness of commercial and military aircraft.

Cardinal, Joseph W.↗

Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosion Experiments

Scientists often predict physical outcomes, e.g., experimental results, with the assistance of computer codes that, at their best, only coarsely approximate reality. Coarse predictions are challenging in critical part due to the multitude of seemingly arbitrary yet consequential decisions that must be made such as choice of relevant data, calibration of code parameters, and construction of empirical discrepancy forms. In this paper, we present a case study in the context of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion experiments where extrapolative predictions are needed with quantified uncertainties. The purpose of this case study is to reflect relevant statistical methods, as applied to ICF model fitting and prediction, to document the numerous decisions that must be made in the prediction pipeline, to extend a complex example in extrapolation to the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community, and to reflect on the challenges we encountered supporting extrapolations with imperfect models and thereby recommend several future research directions. We conclude with a discussion about the UQ community's role in less than ideal predictive scenarios like our ICF exercise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗