Improving Solar PV Degradation Prediction Certainty: PREDICTS2 (Final Technical Report)
The rate and type of in-service PV performance degradation vary for different module designs, vintages, and operating climates. The current IEC 61215 module qualification testing standard can be used to identify design and manufacturing flaws that may lead to early life failures, but it was not intended to accurately predict degradation rates in the first 5 to 10 years of a PV plant’s lifetime, nor long-term performance, under varied operating conditions. Correlations between accelerated aging data and real-world degradation data are needed to better predict wear-out degradation in response to environmental stressors, such as elevated temperature, temperature cycling, moisture, wind load, and solar radiation. The PREDICTS2 project aged 36 pristine-condition ‘spare’ modules from a commercial PV power plant in the U.S. Southwest using the IEC 61215 and Qualification Plus (Qual Plus) testing standards. The study is unique in its ability to compare performance degradation data for fielded modules operating outdoors for 6 years in a commercial plant environmental with degradation data for modules of the same make, model and vintage that have been aged artificially in an indoor laboratory. Changes in individual module current-voltage (I-V) curve data were measured before and after the artificial aging process and compared to I-V curve data for the fielded modules. This project advanced the industry’s understanding of how environmental stressors affect performance degradation and established relationships between degradation mechanisms and changes to module electrical parameters and power loss. Improved certainty in degradation rates is expected to be the greatest source of LCOE reduction resulting from this project. Reducing the spread in the degradation rate probability distribution lowers project risk, which translates to lower project financing costs.