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DOE OSTI2019

Automatic Kalman-filter-based wavelet shrinkage denoising of 1D stellar spectra

We propose a non-parametric method to denoise 1D stellar spectra based on wavelet shrinkage followed by adaptive Kalman thresholding. Wavelet shrinkage denoising involves applying the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to the input signal, ‘shrinking’ certain frequency components in the transform domain, and then applying inverse DWT to the reduced components. The performance of this procedure is influenced by the choice of base wavelet, the number of decomposition levels, and the thresholding function. Typically, these parameters are chosen by ‘trial and error’, which can be strongly dependent on the properties of the data being denoised. We here introduce an adaptive Kalman-filter-based thresholding method that eliminates the need for choosing the number of decomposition levels. We use the ‘Haar’ wavelet basis, which we found to provide excellent filtering for 1D stellar spectra, at a low computational cost. We introduce various levels of Poisson noise into synthetic PHOENIX spectra, and test the performance of several common denoising methods against our own. It proves superior in terms of noise suppression and peak shape preservation. Finally, we expect it may also be of use in automatically and accurately filtering low signal-to-noise galaxy and quasar spectra obtained from surveys such as SDSS, Gaia, LSST, PESSTO, VANDELS, LEGA-C, and DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of e + e − → η J / ψ cross section from s = 3.808 GeV to 4.951 GeV

Using data samples with an integrated luminosity of 22.42 fb − 1 collected by the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring, we measure the cross sections of the e + e − → η J / ψ process at center-of-mass energies from 3.808 to 4.951 GeV. Three structures are observed in the line shape of the measured cross sections. A maximum-likelihood fit with ψ ( 4040 ) , two additional resonances, and a nonresonant component are performed. The mass and width of the first additional state are ( 4219.7 ± 2.5 ± 4.5 ) MeV / c 2 and ( 80.7 ± 4.4 ± 1.4 ) MeV , respectively, consistent with the ψ ( 4230 ) . For the second state, the mass and width are ( 4386 ± 13 ± 17 ) MeV / c 2 and ( 177 ± 32 ± 13 ) MeV , respectively, consistent with the ψ ( 4360 ) . The first uncertainties are statistical, and the second ones are systematic. The statistical significance of ψ ( 4040 ) is 8.0 σ and those for ψ ( 4230 ) and ψ ( 4360 ) are more than 10.0 σ . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ablikim, M.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Real-Time Fine Grained Occupancy Estimation Using Depth Sensors on ARM Embedded Platforms

Occupancy estimation is an important primitive for a wide range of applications including building energy efficiency, safety, and security. In this paper, we explore the potential of using depth sensors to detect, estimate, identify, and track occupants in buildings. While depth sensors have been widely used for human detection and gesture recognition, computer vision algorithms are typically run on a powerful computer like XBOX or Intel R CoreTM i7 processor. In this work, we develop a prototype system called FORK using off-the-shelf components that performs the entire depth data processing on a cheaper and low power ARM processor in real-time. As ARM processors are extremely weak in running computer vision algorithms, FORK is designed to detect humans and track them in a very efficient way by leveraging a novel lightweight model based approach instead of traditional approaches based on histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) features. Unlike other camera based approaches, FORK is much less privacy invasive (even if the sensor is compromised). Based on a complete implementation, real-world deployment, and extensive evaluation at realistic scenarios, we observe that FORK achieves over 99% accuracy in real-time (4-9 FPS) in occupancy estimation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Improved Empirical Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF)

Three Hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models namely radial basis function (RBF), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) combined with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) are developed for CHF predictive modelling using CHF experimental databases.First, the original experimental inputs data series are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual by EMD, whose components are divided into high, medium and low components. The performance parameters of the hybrid models indicates that the root mean square error (RMSE) are 0.8831, 0.6522, and 0.4149; the mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.6697, 0.4636, and 0.1935. The values of the R-square of the developed prediction approach utilizing EMD-RBF, EMD-GRNN, and EMD-MLP models are 0.8553, 0.9302, and 0.9818, and the index of agreement are 0.9464, 0.9700, and 0.9894., The value of the R-square and the index of agreement of the proposed models are much higher than those of the simple models .The Pearson's test results show that the association strength between the measured and the predicted values of the proposed model EMD-MLP is the strongest. These results show the following: (a) compared with other related, recent studies, the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model EMD- MLP proposed in this research is the best hybrid model; (b) the proposed hybrid model (EMD-MLP) attains superior performance compared with simple models.

Djeddou, Messaoud↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-151: Day-To-Day Variations in Fraction-Specific Motion Modeling Using Patient 4DCBCT Images

Purpose: The goal of this study is to quantify the interfraction reproducibility of patient-specific motion models derived from 4DCBCT acquired on the day of treatment of lung cancer stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) patients. Methods: Motion models are derived from patient 4DCBCT images acquired daily over 3–5 fractions of treatment by 1) applying deformable image registration between each 4DCBCT image and a reference phase from that day, resulting in a set of displacement vector fields (DVFs), and 2) performing principal component analysis (PCA) on the DVFs to derive a motion model. The motion model from the first day of treatment is compared to motion models from each successive day of treatment to quantify variability in motion models generated from different days. Four SBRT patient datasets have been acquired thus far in this IRB approved study. Results: Fraction-specific motion models for each fraction and patient were derived and PCA eigenvectors and their associated eigenvalues are compared for each fraction. For the first patient dataset, the average root mean square error between the first two eigenvectors associated with the highest two eigenvalues, in four fractions was 0.1, while it was 0.25 between the last three PCA eigenvectors associated with the lowest three eigenvalues. It was found that the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of PCA motion models for each treatment fraction have variations and the first few eigenvectors are shown to be more stable across treatment fractions than others. Conclusion: Analysis of this dataset showed that the first two eigenvectors of the PCA patient-specific motion models derived from 4DCBCT were stable over the course of several treatment fractions. The third, fourth, and fifth eigenvectors had larger variations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-CD-BRB-08: Radiomic Analysis of FDG-PET Identifies Novel Prognostic Imaging Biomarkers in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients Treated with SBRT

Purpose: This study aims to identify novel prognostic imaging biomarkers in locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) using quantitative, high-throughput image analysis. Methods: 86 patients with LAPC receiving chemotherapy followed by SBRT were retrospectively studied. All patients had a baseline FDG-PET scan prior to SBRT. For each patient, we extracted 435 PET imaging features of five types: statistical, morphological, textural, histogram, and wavelet. These features went through redundancy checks, robustness analysis, as well as a prescreening process based on their concordance indices with respect to the relevant outcomes. We then performed principle component analysis on the remaining features (number ranged from 10 to 16), and fitted a Cox proportional hazard regression model using the first 3 principle components. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess the ability to distinguish high versus low-risk patients separated by median predicted survival. To avoid overfitting, all evaluations were based on leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), in which each holdout patient was assigned to a risk group according to the model obtained from a separate training set. Results: For predicting overall survival (OS), the most dominant imaging features were wavelet coefficients. There was a statistically significant difference in OS between patients with predicted high and low-risk based on LOOCV (hazard ratio: 2.26, p<0.001). Similar imaging features were also strongly associated with local progression-free survival (LPFS) (hazard ratio: 1.53, p=0.026) on LOOCV. In comparison, neither SUVmax nor TLG was associated with LPFS (p=0.103, p=0.433) (Table 1). Results for progression-free survival and distant progression-free survival showed similar trends. Conclusion: Radiomic analysis identified novel imaging features that showed improved prognostic value over conventional methods. These features characterize the degree of intra-tumor heterogeneity reflected on FDG-PET images, and their biological underpinnings warrant further investigation. If validated in large, prospective cohorts, this method could be used to stratify patients based on individualized risk.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-C-BRA-07: Variability of Patient-Specific Motion Models Derived Using Different Deformable Image Registration Algorithms for Lung Cancer Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Patients

Purpose: To study the variability of patient-specific motion models derived from 4-dimensional CT (4DCT) images using different deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms for lung cancer stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) patients. Methods: Motion models are derived by 1) applying DIR between each 4DCT image and a reference image, resulting in a set of displacement vector fields (DVFs), and 2) performing principal component analysis (PCA) on the DVFs, resulting in a motion model (a set of eigenvectors capturing the variations in the DVFs). Three DIR algorithms were used: 1) Demons, 2) Horn-Schunck, and 3) iterative optical flow. The motion models derived were compared using patient 4DCT scans. Results: Motion models were derived and the variations were evaluated according to three criteria: 1) the average root mean square (RMS) difference which measures the absolute difference between the components of the eigenvectors, 2) the dot product between the eigenvectors which measures the angular difference between the eigenvectors in space, and 3) the Euclidean Model Norm (EMN), which is calculated by summing the dot products of an eigenvector with the first three eigenvectors from the reference motion model in quadrature. EMN measures how well an eigenvector can be reconstructed using another motion model derived using a different DIR algorithm. Results showed that comparing to a reference motion model (derived using the Demons algorithm), the eigenvectors of the motion model derived using the iterative optical flow algorithm has smaller RMS, larger dot product, and larger EMN values than those of the motion model derived using Horn-Schunck algorithm. Conclusion: The study showed that motion models vary depending on which DIR algorithms were used to derive them. The choice of a DIR algorithm may affect the accuracy of the resulting model, and it is important to assess the suitability of the algorithm chosen for a particular application. This project was supported, in part, through a Master Research Agreement with Varian Medical Systems, Inc, Palo Alto, CA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-IeP1-06: Estimating Relative Tissue Density From Quantitative MR Images: A Novel Perspective for MRI-Only Heterogeneity Corrected Dose Calculation

Purpose: To explore the feasibility of extracting the relative density from quantitative MRI measurements as well as estimate a correlation between the extracted measures and CT Hounsfield units. Methods: MRI has the ability to separate water and fat signals, producing two separate images for each component. By performing appropriate corrections on the separated images, quantitative measurement of water and fat mass density can be estimated. This work aims to test this hypothesis on 1.5T.Peanut oil was used as fat-representative, while agar as water-representative. Gadolinium Chloride III and Sodium Chloride were added to the agar solution to adjust the relaxation times and the medium conductivity, respectively. Peanut oil was added to the agar solution with different percentages: 0%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 100%. The phantom was scanned on 1.5T GE Optima 450W with the body coil using a multigradient echo sequences. Water/fat separation were performed while correcting for main field (B0) inhomogeneity and T{sub 2}* relaxation time. B1+ inhomogeneities were ignored. The phantom was subsequently scanned on a Philips Brilliance CT Big Bore. MR-corrected fat signal from all vials were normalized to 100% fat signal. CT Hounsfield values were then compared to those obtained from the normalized MR-corrected fat values as well as to the phantom for validation. Results: Good agreement were found between CT HU and the MR-extracted fat values (R{sup 2} = 0.98). CT HU also showed excellent agreement with the prepared fat fractions (R{sup 2}=0.99). Vials with 70%, 80%, and 90% fat percentages showed inhomogeneous distributions, however their results were included for completion. Conclusion: Quantitative MRI water/fat imaging can be potentially used to extract the relative tissue density. Further in-vivo validation are required.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-TeP1-09: Modality-Specific Dose Gradient Modeling for Prostate IMRT Using Spherical Distance Maps of PTV and Isodose Contours

Purpose: Overlapping volume histogram (OVH) and distance-to-target histogram (DTH) calculations rely on the assumption that dose gradients are symmetric with respect to primary target volume (PTV) expansion and minimum distance to PTV surface, respectively. It is desirable to lift this assumption and instead account for achievable modality-specific dose gradients (MSDG) for a given PTV shape. Methods: From a library of 96 prostate 7-beam IMRT plans, we computed spherical distance maps (SDMs) for PTVs and 3 iso-dose contours. Each SDM contains the minimum distances between plan isocenter and the object’s surface for a fixed set of azimuthal and polar angles. We performed principal component analysis (PCA)-based missing data recovery with PTV SDM as input and a single iso-dose contour SDM as output. Repeating this process for the set of iso-dose contours sparsely reconstructed the MSDG for a given PTV. DVH points were computed from the MSDG for bladder and rectum (OARs) as a natural way of casting patient-specific geometric information into modality-specific dose space (vs. OVH and DTH where data is purely geometric). For comparison, we implemented a cumulative (c)DTH-based prediction algorithm, and produced DVH for both OARs separately. We then computed linear regressions between each method and the DVH of the original patient plan for three different OAR DVH points. Results: R-squared for MSD-Gcomputed DVH vs. original plan DVH at V90%, V80% and V60% of max dose were 0.86, 0.83, and 0.78, for bladder and 0.36, 0.52, and 0.55 for rectum, respectively; R-squared for cDTH-based predicted DVH vs. original plan DVH were 0.67, 0.81, and 0.83, for bladder and 0.44, 0.50, and 0.51, for rectum, respectively. Conclusion: By simply modeling the MSDG about a given PTV, we are able to reproduce DVHs consistent with a validated cDTH-based DVH prediction. Regression analysis suggests MSDG could further improve predictions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

TU-FG-201-09: Predicting Accelerator Dysfunction

Purpose: To develop an integrated statistical process control (SPC) framework using digital performance and component data accumulated within the accelerator system that can detect dysfunction prior to unscheduled downtime. Methods: Seven digital accelerators were monitored for twelve to 18 months. The accelerators were operated in a ‘run to failure mode’ with the individual institutions determining when service would be initiated. Institutions were required to submit detailed service reports. Trajectory and text log files resulting from a robust daily VMAT QA delivery were decoded and evaluated using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) control charts. The SPC evaluation was presented in a customized dashboard interface that allows the user to review 525 monitored parameters (480 MLC parameters). Chart limits were calculated using a hybrid technique that includes the standard SPC 3σ limits and an empirical factor based on the parameter/system specification. The individual (I) grand mean values and control limit ranges of the I/MR charts of all accelerators were compared using statistical (ranked analysis of variance (ANOVA)) and graphical analyses to determine consistency of operating parameters. Results: When an alarm or warning was directly connected to field service, process control charts predicted dysfunction consistently on beam generation related parameters (BGP)– RF Driver Voltage, Gun Grid Voltage, and Forward Power (W); beam uniformity parameters – angle and position steering coil currents; and Gantry position accuracy parameter: cross correlation max-value. Control charts for individual MLC – cross correlation max-value/position detected 50% to 60% of MLCs serviced prior to dysfunction or failure. In general, non-random changes were detected 5 to 80 days prior to a service intervention. The ANOVA comparison of BGP determined that each accelerator parameter operated at a distinct value. Conclusion: The SPC framework shows promise. Long term monitoring coordinated with service will be required to definitively determine the effectiveness of the model. Varian Medical System, Inc. provided funding in support of the research presented.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2017

Data for Known Geothermal Resource Areas (KGRA) and Identified Hydrothermal Resource Areas (IHRA) in Southern Idaho and Southeastern Oregon

The presented database includes water chemistry data and structural rating values for various geothermal features used for performing principal component (PC) and cluster analyses work to identify promising KGRAs and IHRAs in southern Idaho and southeastern Oregon. A brief note on various KGRAs/IHRAs is also included herewith. Results of PC and cluster analyses are presented as a separate paper (Lindsey et al., 2017) that is, as of the time of this submission, in 'revision' status.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Multiphysics Multiscale Multiporosity Shale Gas Transport Model for Geomechanics/Flow Coupling in Steady and Transient States

Summary A novel multiphysics multiscale multiporosity shale gas transport (M3ST) model was developed to investigate shale gas transport in both transient and steady states. The microscale model component contains a kerogen domain and an inorganic matrix domain, and each domain has its own geomechanical and gas transport properties. Permeabilities of various shale cores were measured in the laboratory using a pulse decay permeameter (PDP) with different pore pressure and confining stress combinations. The PDP-measured apparent permeability as a function of pore pressure under two effective stresses was fitted using the microscale M3ST model component based on nonlinear least squares fitting (NLSF), and the fitted model parameters were able to provide accurate model predictions for another effective stress. The parameters and petrophysical properties determined in the steady state were then used in the transient-state, continuum-scale M3ST model component, which performed history matching of the evolutions of the upstream and downstream gas pressures. In addition, a double-exponential empirical model was developed as a powerful alternative to the M3ST model to fit laboratory-measured apparent permeability under various effective stresses and pore pressures. The developed M3ST model and the research findings in this study provided critical insights into the role of the multiphysics mechanisms, including geomechanics, fluid dynamics and transport, and the Klinkenberg effect on shale gas transport across different spatial scales in both steady and transient states.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2014

Corrosion Assessment of Candidate Materials for the SHINE Subcritical Assembly Vessel and Components—FY14 Report

Laboratory corrosion testing of candidate alloys—including Zr-4 and Zr-2.5Nb representing the target solution vessel, and 316L, 2304, 304L, and 17-4 PH stainless steels representing process piping and balance-of-plant components—was performed in support of the proposed SHINE process to produce 99 Mo from low-enriched uranium. The test solutions used depleted uranyl sulfate in various concentrations and incorporated a range of temperatures, excess sulfuric acid concentrations, nitric acid additions (to simulate radiolysis product generation), and iodine additions. Testing involved static immersion of coupons in solution and in the vapor above the solution, and was extended to include planned-interval tests to examine details associated with stainless steel corrosion in environments containing iodine species. A large number of galvanic tests featuring couples between a stainless steel and a zirconium-based alloy were performed, and limited vibratory horn testing was incorporated to explore potential erosion/corrosion features of compatibility. In all cases, corrosion of the zirconium alloys was observed to be minimal, with corrosion rates based on weight loss calculated to be less than 0.1 mil/year with no change in surface roughness. The resulting passive film appeared to be ZrO 2 with variations in thickness that influence apparent coloration (toward light brown for thicker films). Galvanic coupling with various stainless steels in selected exposures had no discernable effect on appearance, surface roughness, or corrosion rate. Erosion/corrosion behavior was the same for zirconium alloys in uranyl sulfate solutions and in sodium sulfate solutions adjusted to a similar pH, suggesting there was no negative effect of uranium resulting from fluid dynamic conditions aggressive to the passive film. Corrosion of the candidate stainless steels was similarly modest across the entire range of exposures. However, some sensitivity to corrosion of the stainless steels was observed in solutions with 50 wppm iodine (the actual SHINE process expects 0.1–1 wppm) with the highest corrosion rates (up to ~6 mil/year) observed on specimens exposed in the vapor phase. Lower concentrations of iodine species (5 or 28 wppm) proved much less corrosive, and the planned-interval data indicated that metal corrodibility decreased with time for all immersed exposures and, with one minor exception, all vapor exposures. Little change in susceptibility to corrosion was observed as a result of nitric acid additions to the test environment (simulating radiolysis products). The trend toward reduced corrosion (immersion and vapor phase) with decreasing iodine concentration suggests that, at the expected conditions in the SHINE process, it is unlikely that iodine species will generate a general corrosion concern for the candidate stainless steels.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

LDRD Report: Topological Design Optimization of Convolutes in Next Generation Pulsed Power Devices.

This LDRD project was developed around the ambitious goal of applying PDE-constrained opti- mization approaches to design Z-machine components whose performance is governed by elec- tromagnetic and plasma models. This report documents the results of this LDRD project. Our differentiating approach was to use topology optimization methods developed for structural design and extend them for application to electromagnetic systems pertinent to the Z-machine. To achieve this objective a suite of optimization algorithms were implemented in the ROL library part of the Trilinos framework. These methods were applied to standalone demonstration problems and the Drekar multi-physics research application. Out of this exploration a new augmented Lagrangian approach to structural design problems was developed. We demonstrate that this approach has favorable mesh-independent performance. Both the final design and the algorithmic performance were independent of the size of the mesh. In addition, topology optimization formulations for the design of conducting networks were developed and demonstrated. Of note, this formulation was used to develop a design for the inner magnetically insulated transmission line on the Z-machine. The resulting electromagnetic device is compared with theoretically postulated designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Computational Low Energy Initiative (NUCLEI)

This is the Final Report for Ohio State University for the NUCLEI SciDAC3 project. In addition to the local OSU summary given here, we have attached a global NUCLEI summary and a list of papers and talks by the full collaboration, with OSU contributions marked in red. The NUCLEI project, as defined by the scope of work, developed, implemented and ran codes for largescale computations of many topics in lowenergy nuclear physics. Physics studied included the properties of nuclei and nuclear decays, nuclear structure and reactions, and the properties of nuclear matter. The computational techniques used included Quantum Monte Carlo, Configuration Interaction, Coupled Cluster, InMedium SRG, and Density Functional methods. The research program emphasized areas of high interest to current and possible future DOE nuclear physics facilities, including ATLAS and FRIB (nuclear structure and reactions, and nuclear astrophysics), TJNAF (neutron distributions in nuclei, few body systems, and electroweak processes), NIF (thermonuclear reactions), MAJORANA and FNPB (neutrinoless doublebeta decay and physics beyond the Standard Model), and LANSCE (fission studies). Research at Ohio State University played an integral role in NUCLEI by providing input microscopic interactions and operators needed for ab initio structure and reaction calculations including uncertainty quantification, independent ab initio calculations using the inmedium similarity renormalization group (IMSRG), and developing microscopic constraints for the nextgeneration energy density functionals (EDF). Much of the theoretical work at OSU was closely coordinated with the theory team at Michigan State University. Although the OSU group did not usually directly develop codes for the highest performance computing components of NUCLEI, we provided needed inputs for much of the effort. In particular, our work contributes to the “Validated Nuclear Interactions” task as well as to both of the “Structure and Reactions” tasks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Benchmarking Wind Power Operating Costs in the United States: Results from a Survey of Wind Industry Experts

This paper draws on a survey of wind industry professionals to clarify trends in the operational expenditures (OpEx) of U.S. land-based wind power plants. The paper also highlights key drivers of those trends. We find that average all-in lifetime OpEx has declined from approximately $\$$80/kW-yr ($\$$35/MWh) for projects built in the late 1990s to a level that is approaching $\$$40/kW-yr ($\$$11/MWh) for projects under construction in 2018. Turbine operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—inclusive of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance—represent the single largest component of overall OpEx and the primary source of cost reductions over the last decade. We observe wide ranges of OpEx over time; for example, survey respondents cite a range in average expected costs for projects commissioned between 2015 and 2018 from $\$$33/kW-yr to $\$$59/kW-yr. Notably, these broad ranges include high levels of variability in both turbine O&M costs and non-turbine OpEx. Potential technical and strategic drivers of this variability are highlighted. We also use historical OpEx learning rates, showing a 9% OpEx reduction for each doubling of global installed wind capacity, to project a further $\$$5–$\$$8/kW-yr (12%–18%) OpEx reduction from 2018 to 2040. When compared with the broader literature, these findings suggest that continued OpEx reductions may contribute 10% or more of the expected reductions in land-based wind’s levelized cost of energy. Moreover, these estimates may understate the importance of OpEx owing to the multiplicative effects through which operational advancements influence not only O&M costs but also component reliability, performance, and plant-level availability—thereby affecting levelized costs though OpEx reduction and by enhancing annual energy production and plant lifetimes. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available OpEx data, the data and trends reported here may usefully inform OpEx assumptions used by electric system planners, analysts, modelers, and research and development managers. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the wind industry, helping developers and asset owners compare their OpEx expectations with historical experience and other industry projections.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Novel Seal Design for Effective Mitigation of Methane Emissions from Reciprocating Compressors

The objective of this project was to reduce leakage of compressor rod packing because rod packing accounts for a significant portion of leakage of compressors. To meet the objectives, the project team designed, manufactured, and tested a liquid seal in a full-scale setting to demonstrate the operability of the seal, verify the performance of components, and demonstrate the potential for producing a seal that reduces methane emissions by a minimum of 95% of 1% of the total mass flow of the compressor with minimal wear to the seal.

03 NATURAL GAS↗