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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Temperature-Dependent Regression Model Terms of a RUAG Six-Component Block-Type Balance

A metric called the percent contribution was applied to regression models of temperature-dependent calibration data of a RUAG six-component block-type balance in order to assess the influence of temperature-dependent regression model terms on the balance load prediction. Regression models were examined that are needed if either the Iterative or the Non-Iterative Method is used for the load prediction. Computed values of the percent contribution confirmed that the cross-product term defined by a primary load and the temperature difference is the most influential temperature-dependent term of the regression model of a primary output that the Iterative Method needs. Similarly, the analysis showed that the cross-product term defined by a primary output and the temperature difference is the most influential temperature-dependent term of the regression model of a primary load that the Non-Iterative Method needs. Computed results support conclusions that were reported in an earlier theoretical study. This study asserted that the cross-product term defined by a primary load or output and the temperature difference models the temperature-dependent shift of the gage sensitivity. The influence of other temperature-dependent terms used in the regression models of the calibration data of RUAG's balance was negligible. This observation may be explained by the fact that RUAG's block-type balances have highly linear characteristics. Overall, the percent contribution has proven itself to be a reliable and easy-to-implement metric that may also be used for the assessment of the influence of temperature-dependent regression model terms on the load prediction of a six-component strain-gage balance.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Neural Network and Regression Approximations in High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft Design Optimization

Nonlinear mathematical-programming-based design optimization can be an elegant method. However, the calculations required to generate the merit function, constraints, and their gradients, which are frequently required, can make the process computational intensive. The computational burden can be greatly reduced by using approximating analyzers derived from an original analyzer utilizing neural networks and linear regression methods. The experience gained from using both of these approximation methods in the design optimization of a high speed civil transport aircraft is the subject of this paper. The Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System was selected for the aircraft analysis. This software was exercised to generate a set of training data with which a neural network and a regression method were trained, thereby producing the two approximating analyzers. The derived analyzers were coupled to the Lewis Research Center's CometBoards test bed to provide the optimization capability. With the combined software, both approximation methods were examined for use in aircraft design optimization, and both performed satisfactorily. The CPU time for solution of the problem, which had been measured in hours, was reduced to minutes with the neural network approximation and to seconds with the regression method. Instability encountered in the aircraft analysis software at certain design points was also eliminated. On the other hand, there were costs and difficulties associated with training the approximating analyzers. The CPU time required to generate the input-output pairs and to train the approximating analyzers was seven times that required for solution of the problem.

Patniak, Surya N.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A diagnostic analysis of the VVP single-doppler retrieval technique

A diagnostic analysis of the VVP (volume velocity processing) retrieval method is presented, with emphasis on understanding the technique as a linear, multivariate regression. Similarities and differences to the velocity-azimuth display and extended velocity-azimuth display retrieval techniques are discussed, using this framework. Conventional regression diagnostics are then employed to quantitatively determine situations in which the VVP technique is likely to fail. An algorithm for preparation and analysis of a robust VVP retrieval is developed and applied to synthetic and actual datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution. A fundamental (but quantifiable) limitation to some forms of VVP analysis is inadequate sampling dispersion in the n space of the multivariate regression, manifest as a collinearity between the basis functions of some fitted parameters. Such collinearity may be present either in the definition of these basis functions or in their realization in a given sampling configuration. This nonorthogonality may cause numerical instability, variance inflation (decrease in robustness), and increased sensitivity to bias from neglected wind components. It is shown that these effects prevent the application of VVP to small azimuthal sectors of data. The behavior of the VVP regression is further diagnosed over a wide range of sampling constraints, and reasonable sector limits are established.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design Process for High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft Improved by Neural Network and Regression Methods

A key challenge in designing the new High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft is determining a good match between the airframe and engine. Multidisciplinary design optimization can be used to solve the problem by adjusting parameters of both the engine and the airframe. Earlier, an example problem was presented of an HSCT aircraft with four mixed-flow turbofan engines and a baseline mission to carry 305 passengers 5000 nautical miles at a cruise speed of Mach 2.4. The problem was solved by coupling NASA Lewis Research Center's design optimization testbed (COMETBOARDS) with NASA Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System (FLOPS). The computing time expended in solving the problem was substantial, and the instability of the FLOPS analyzer at certain design points caused difficulties. In an attempt to alleviate both of these limitations, we explored the use of two approximation concepts in the design optimization process. The two concepts, which are based on neural network and linear regression approximation, provide the reanalysis capability and design sensitivity analysis information required for the optimization process. The HSCT aircraft optimization problem was solved by using three alternate approaches; that is, the original FLOPS analyzer and two approximate (derived) analyzers. The approximate analyzers were calibrated and used in three different ranges of the design variables; narrow (interpolated), standard, and wide (extrapolated).

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Probabilistic Machine Learning Estimation of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth from Dense Satellite and Sparse In-Situ Observations

The ocean mixed layer plays an important role in the coupling between the upper ocean and atmosphere across a wide range of time scales. Estimation of the variability of the ocean mixed layer is therefore important for atmosphere-ocean prediction and analysis. The increasing coverage of in situ Argo profile data allows for an increasingly accurate analysis of the mixed layer depth (MLD) variability associated with deviations from the seasonal climatology. However, sampling rates are not sufficient to fully resolve subseasonal (<90 day) MLD variability. Yet, many multivariate observations-based analyses include implicit modeled subseasonal MLD variability. One analysis method is optimal interpolation of in situ data, but the interior analysis can be improved by leveraging surface data with regression or variational approaches. Here, we demonstrate how machine learning methods and satellite sea surface temperature, salinity, and height facilitate MLD estimation in a pilot study of two regions: the mid-latitude southern Indian and the eastern equatorial Pacific Oceans. We construct multiple machine learning architectures to produce weekly 1/2° gridded MLD anomaly fields (relative to a monthly climatology) with uncertainty estimates. We test multiple traditional and probabilistic machine learning techniques to compare both accuracy and probabilistic calibration. We validate our methodology by applying it to ocean model simulations. We find that incorporating sea surface data through a machine learning model improves the performance of spatiotemporal MLD variability estimation compared to optimal interpolation of Argo observations alone. These preliminary results are a promising first step for the application of machine learning to MLD prediction.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2022

Comparison of Likelihood Methods for Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 Data

Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.

dose-response model↗
NASA NTRS2012

Detection of Bi-Directionality in Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An indicator variable was developed for both visualization and detection of bi-directionality in wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. First, the calculation of the indicator variable is explained in detail. Then, a criterion is discussed that may be used to decide which gage outputs of a balance have bi- directional behavior. The result of this analysis could be used, for example, to justify the selection of certain absolute value or other even function terms in the regression model of gage outputs whenever the Iterative Method is chosen for the balance calibration data analysis. Calibration data of NASA s MK40 Task balance is analyzed to illustrate both the calculation of the indicator variable and the application of the proposed criterion. Finally, bi directionality characteristics of typical multi piece, hybrid, single piece, and semispan balances are determined and discussed.

Ulbrich, Norbert↗
NASA NTRS2018

Monitoring Springs in the Mojave Desert Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

The purpose of this study, based on Landsat satellite data was to characterize variations and trends over 30 consecutive years (1985-2016) in perennial vegetation green cover at over 400 confirmed Mojave Desert spring locations. These springs were surveyed between in 2015 and 2016 on lands managed in California by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and on several land trusts within the Barstow, Needles, and Ridgecrest BLM Field Offices. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from July Landsat images was computed at each spring location and a trend model was first fit to the multi-year NDVI time series using least squares linear regression.Â

Time Series↗
NASA NTRS1998

Baseline Observations of Hemispheric Sea Ice with the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer

The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the NASA Nimbus 7 satellite was designed to obtain data for sea surface temperatures (SSTs), near-surface wind speeds, sea ice coverage and type, rainfall rates over the oceans, cloud water content, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture. In this paper, I shall emphasize the sea ice observations and mention briefly some important SST observations. A prime factor contributing to the importance of SMMR sea ice observations lies in their successful integration into a long-term time series, presently being extended by observations from the series of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMI) on board the DOD/DMSP F8, Fl1, and F12 satellites. This currently constitutes a 19-year data set. Almost half of this was provided by the SMMR. Unfortunately, the 4-year data set produced earlier by the single-channel Electrically Scanned Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) was not successfully integrated into the SMMR/SSMI data set. This resulted primarily from the lack of an overlap period to provide intersensor adjustment, but also because of the large difference between the algorithms to produce ice concentrations and large temporal gaps in the ESMR data. The lack of overlap between the SeaSat and Nimbus 7 SMMR data sets was an important consideration for also excluding the SeatSat one, but the spatial gaps especially in the Southern Hemisphere daily SeaSat observations was another. The sea ice observations will continue into the future by means of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on board the ADEOS II and EOS satellites due to be launched in mid- and late-2000, respectively. Analysis of the sea ice data has been carried out by a number of different techniques. Long-term trends have been examined by means of ordinary least squares and band-limited regression. Oscillations in the data have been examined by band-limited Fourier analysis. Here, I shall present results from a novel combination of Principal Component analysis and the recently-developed Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). In this method, the data are first separated into spatial and temporal parts, and then the temporal parts of the first few PCs are broken into intrinsic modes by the EMD method.

Gloersen, Per↗
NASA NTRS2018

Parametric Analysis of Aircraft WingWeight Using Low-Order Physics-Based Analysis

In the conceptual aircraft design phase, prediction of the empty weight typically relies on empirically-based regression equations which execute quickly and require little detailed information about the internal structural layout. Since they are based on existing aircraft, however, empirical methods can lose their validity for newer technologies and unconventional configurations. Designers can transition to higher-order, physics-based analysis methods to improve the accuracy of the weight prediction, but at the cost of complex model setup and increased computational time. This paper describes a methodology for low-order aero-structural analysis of conceptual aircraft configurations that increases the use of physics-based analysis in conceptual design, but is less complex and time-consuming than higher-order methods such as finite-element analysis. The methodology uses Vehicle Sketch Pad (OpenVSP) to model the aircraft geometry, and ASWING to perform the aero-structural analysis. The internal forces and moments from the ASWING analysis are post-processed to calculate the resulting direct and shear stresses in the structure, and the thickness distributions of the aircraft components are varied to match the maximum von Mises stress at each cross section to the material allowable. To offset the increased computational time relative to empirical weight equations, a process is studied which uses parametric variation to develop a regression equation relating the weight of the aircraft wing to major design variables. This new weight equation is similar to existing empirical equations, but is built using the more physics-based methodology; the new equation could be used to augment or replace portions of the empirical database to improve the validity of the wing weight prediction for unconventional configurations and advanced technologies.

Olson, Erik D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying market volume sensitivity to material property modifications in polyhydroxybutyrate: A parametric analysis approach

Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a biodegradable biopolymer, represents a promising alternative to petroleum-based thermoplastics. However, despite consistent market growth, PHB faces persistent commercialization challenges that limit widespread adoption. Existing research has focused predominantly on optimizing PHB production processes, leaving a critical gap in understanding which material property modifications would most effectively enhance market competitiveness. This study addresses this gap by systematically analyzing the relationship between polymer material properties and market performance using U.S. market data from 2008 to 2021 for 21 thermoplastic polymers across 19 material properties. We employed principal component regression to identify property modifications that could maximize market volume while reducing CO 2 emissions. Our parametric analysis revealed that two specific material properties – Hardness Shore A and Sheet Extrusion Temperature – significantly influence PHB marketability across different price points. Market simulations demonstrated that a 10% increase in Hardness Shore A could increase PHB market volume by 431.5 million kg while reducing emissions by 188.7 kg CO 2 . A similar 10% increase to Sheet Extrusion Temperature could yield a 297.5 million kg volume increase and a 99.2 kg CO 2 reduction in emissions. Critically, this approach is agnostic to the specific methods required to achieve these property changes, instead providing material scientists with quantitative, data-driven targets for R&D prioritization. Here, this framework offers a novel methodology for evaluating biopolymer competitiveness and supporting strategic decisions to accelerate PHB market adoption and contribute to decarbonization of the plastics industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1985

A relation between the short time variations of cosmic rays and geomagnetic field change

An event is reported of approx. 37 min periodicity in cosmic ray intensity observed at Akeno(38 deg 47 N, 138 deg 30 E. 900m above s.l., cutoff 10.4 GV) during 1300 approx. 1900 UT on April 25th, 1984, just a day before Forbush decrease of April 26th. This event seemed to be followed by the periodic variations of the geomagnetic field observed at Kakioka (36 deg 23 N, 140 deg 18 E). The regression coefficient between them was obtained approx. 0.07%/10nT. It is shown that in general the power spectral density of cosmic rays in the frequency of 0.0001 approx. 0.001Hz correlates positively with the fluctuations of geomagnetic field (Dst field) around approx. 1.2x0.0001Hz. From the analysis of 47 days data (April 14th to June 13th, 1984) the regression curve was obtained as y=0.275x sup 0.343 with the correlation coefficient of 0.48, where x and y mean Fourier components of Dst field summed over 1.04 approx. 1.39x0.001Hz and cosmic ray power spectral density averaged over 0.0001 approx. 0.001Hz.

Saki, T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Fitting Zernike Polynomials to Discrete Data

Zernike polynomials are a widely used metric in modern optical analysis. They conveniently represent surfaces as a series of weighted terms corresponding to various optical aberrations. Ideally, each term is independent of others in the series, but Zernike polynomials lose this property when working with sets of discrete data. This gives rise to uncertainty in each polynomial’s actual contribution and affects metrology and simulation estimates of their relative weights. Several factors influencing these estimates are the number and arrangement of sample locations, the method for calculating the weights, and the total number of Zernike terms used in the calculation. Discussed is the uncertainty associated with linear regression using random sampling. Other topics reviewed are complex Zernike polynomials and vector spaces of functions.

Zernike Polynomials↗
NASA NTRS1983

Simplified analysis techniques to support the determination of Shuttle aerodynamics

The use of deterministic and regression methods to supplement the maximum likelihood estimation programs for the determination of the stability and control parameters of the Shuttle vehicle is discussed. Examples taken from STS-2 and STS-3 flight data show the use of deterministic methods to verify the effectiveness of the pitch and roll Reaction Control System (RCS), to verify the model structure used in the maximum likelihood estimator and to indicate regions of the descent trajectory where unmodeled moments dominate the vehicle motion and the application of maximum likelihood estimation would lead to incorrect parameter values. The use of regression methods to determine selected parameters when the more sophisticated maximum likelihood programs are not required, to determine the form of the vehicle mathematical model and to select the data time intervals for most effective parameter identification are also discussed.

Suit, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Applications of TOMS Ozone Data and Clustering Techniques in Satellite Soundings

Two primary areas are being pursued: (1) Applications of TOMS total ozone data to estimate the tropopause height and consequently to improve the temperature retrievals from satellite measurements; and (2) Applications of cluster analysis to satellite soundings. The strategy is to either use regression retrievals stratified by tropopause or to use the tropopause information as a constraint on the solution to the physical retrieval method.

Munteanu, M. J.↗