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At least 685 records · Page 38

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Improving DOE Project Performance Using the DOD Integrated Master Plan - 12481

DOE O 413 measures a project's progress to plan by the consumption of funding, the passage of time, and the meeting of milestones. In March of 2003, then Under Secretary, Energy, Science, Card received a memo directing the implementation of Project Management and the Project Management Manual, including the Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule. This directive states 'the integrated master plan and schedule tie together all project tasks by showing their logical relationships and any constraints controlling the start or finish of each task. This process results in a hierarchy of related functional and layered schedules derived from the Work Breakdown Structure that can be used for monitoring and controlling project progress'. This paper shows how restoring the IMP/IMS paradigm to DOE program management increases the probability of program success in ways not currently available using DOD O 413 processes alone. Using DOE O 413 series guidance, adding the Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule paradigm would provide a hierarchical set of performance measures for each 'package of work,' that provides measurable visibility to the increasing maturity of the project. This measurable maturity provides the mechanism to forecast future performance of cost, schedule, and technical outcomes in ways not available using just the activities in DOE O 413. With this information project managers have another tool available to address the issues identified in GAO-07-336 and GAO-09-406. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The New International Project on Irradiated Graphite Processing Approaches (GRAPA) - 16559

Developing of strategies and methods for the management of spent nuclear (irradiated) graphite is one of the major task in decommissioning internationally. More than 250.000 Mg of i-graphite have been accumulated worldwide. Having completed in 2014 a comprehensive collaborative research programme on the treatment options for the disposal of i-graphite wastes to meet disposal criteria, the IAEA decided to maintain an active group of international specialists in this area as part of the International Decommissioning Network (IDN). To foster further development in R and D and steps towards industrial applications in i-graphite management this group was requested to propose the terms of reference and work programme for a new IAEA project. The basic concept for this future programme has been formulated by the German Forschungszentrum (Research Centre) Juelich, Institute IEK-6. The initiative has expanded to include representation from UK, USA, France, Italy, Russia, Ukraine and Lithuania. Additional Member States of the IAEA are expected to join the project. The concept presented by the IEK-6 was discussed among the experts and extended on an international meeting at IAEA in Vienna in February 2015. In addition to the development of the terms of reference a number of individual tasks have been identified. The project will combine a comprehensive state-of-the-art study with concerted actions as well as cross-cutting sub-projects. This will include a practical demonstration of the removal, treatment and disposal of highly-irradiated graphite from a decommissioned reactor. Prior to official implementation of this project preparatory work has been started on topic areas where weaknesses in the scientific knowledge or the technology have been identified. The scope of the international project ('Irradiated Graphite Processing Approaches, GRAPA') and its expected development as well as the possible impact of GRAPA on the future international i-graphite research activities will be described in this presentation. The project will be performed jointly by both the IAEA International Decommissioning Network and the new IAEA Pretreatment Network (IMM, under development). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Port Hope Area Initiative Project Update - 19146

The Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI) is a federal environmental clean-up program. Its mandate is the remediation and local, long-term, safe management of approximately 1.7 million cubic metres of historic low-level radioactive waste in the adjacent communities of Port Hope and Port Granby in Southern Ontario, Canada. The PHAI is being undertaken by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL), on behalf of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, a federal Crown corporation. With funding of $1.28 billion CAD it is currently one of the largest environmental remediation projects in Canada. The safety of workers, the public and the environment while delivering the PHAI on time and within budget is CNL's number one priority. The PHAI is being carried out as two projects - the Port Hope Project and the Port Granby Project. The Port Hope Project is the larger of the two and includes the cleanup of approximately 1.2 million cubic metres of historic waste from various locations within the community. The Port Granby Project will relocate approximately 450,000 cubic metres of historic low-level radioactive waste and marginally contaminated soils, located at an existing waste management facility on the shoreline of Lake Ontario, to a new engineered aboveground mound being built about a kilometre north of the current site. This paper will provide an update on both projects with an emphasis on successes to date and challenges yet be faced. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Transportation of Radioactive Waste in Support of Ontario Power Generation's Darlington Nuclear Generating Station Refurbishment Project - 19384

Ontario Power Generation's (OPG) Darlington Nuclear Generating Station (DNGS) is currently executing a major refurbishment of the first of their four Candu reactors. As expected, the volumes of Low and Intermediate Level Waste (LILW) generated from this large-scale project have been significant. As a result, unique solutions were needed for the safe and efficient transportation of radioactive waste from the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station to OPG's Western Waste Management Facility for volume reduction and interim storage. OPG's Nuclear Waste Management Division and the Darlington Refurbishment Project worked together to identify unique radioactive waste transportation solutions. These solutions included staging and temporary storage facilities, new waste containers and specialized transportation packages, additional human resources and enhanced planning and logistics required to transport large volumes of routine and non-routine radioactive waste in a manner that minimized the impact on employee and public safety, project schedule and project costs. From a facilities perspective a shielded 'Marshalling Area' that allowed for loaded transportation packages to be staged was built on the Darlington site and a temporary licensed off-site radioactive waste storage facility close to the DNGS was contracted through a third party vendor. These two facilities allowed for more consistent and efficient schedules that limited radioactive waste shipments during off-hours and avoided peak traffic periods thereby limiting the risk to Refurbishment critical path activities. Special purpose-built transportation packages and waste containers were designed and fabricated to handle unique waste streams such as feeder pipes and other miscellaneous intermediate level waste items associated with reactor dismantling. Twenty-four Type A qualified transportation packages mounted to six flat deck trailers were designed and fabricated to support the shipment of contaminated feeder pipes. An Intermediate Level Waste Utility Container (ILWUC) to be used in conjunction with the Type B qualified Trillium Transportation Package was designed and fabricated to handle unique intermediate level waste streams arising from the reactor dismantling process. Logistics software was used to plan the shipments to ensure waste transportation packages could be loaded, transported, unloaded and returned safely to the project site in a timely manner without impacting project schedules. Several shipping scenarios were simulated and adjusted using the software to ensure that the most efficient use of equipment and resources for the radioactive waste transportation aspects of the project. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Lessons Learned from Hanford's Purex Tunnel 2 Structural Stabilization Project - 20509

In 2019, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company (CHPRC) completed structurally stabilizing the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Plant (Purex) waste storage Tunnel 2 with engineered grout. This action significantly reduced risk to Hanford workers, the surrounding community and environment by preventing future collapse of the tunnel and possible release of radioactive materials. Decades of plutonium production at the Purex facility required construction of two large underground tunnels for storage of highly contaminated plutonium processing equipment that had failed during the operation of Purex and other facilities across the Hanford Site. Following the partial collapse of Purex Tunnel 1 on May 9, 2017, DOE and CHPRC took immediate action to safely stabilize the collapsed section of the tunnel. The hole in the tunnel was filled the next day as a temporary stabilization measure, and no contamination was detected as a result of the partial collapse of the tunnel. Workers then stabilized Tunnel 1 in its entirety by filling with engineered grout, which also encapsulated the radioactive equipment and railcars within the tunnel. Grouting eliminated the risk of further collapse and stabilized the tunnel contents, all while not precluding future remedial actions or final closure decisions. While conducting an integrity analysis of Tunnel 1 by using construction drawings, photos and other historical documents, project teams also analyzed the much larger Purex Tunnel 2. The analysis found Tunnel 2 did not meet current codes for structural integrity, and it may not be able to bear the weight of the soil above the tunnel. Therefore, it was determined that Tunnel 2 was also at risk of collapse. DoE's independent panel of experts determined grouting to be the best choice for stabilizing Tunnel 2 because it provides the highest level of stability and protection, and does not preclude future remedial actions. DOE authorized CHPRC to commence work and the Purex Tunnel 2 Structural Stabilization Project was launched in December of 2017. The paper will discuss the process of recognizing the following critical aspects and risks associated with stabilizing Tunnel 2, and the actions taken by the project team to mitigate these risks, including: - Tunnel investigation and data collection to assist with future remediation; - On-site batching and mock-ups to provide the large quantity of grout required for stabilizing the tunnel; - Workforce involvement and innovative actions that mitigated the project's most significant potential hazards, including traffic control; - Project team high level of execution translated into successful project execution. Sharing lessons learned from this critical risk-reduction effort can enhance the safety and efficiency of other complex and hazardous projects across the DOE complex. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Overview of zion comparative analysis project for assessment of Boral{sup R} neutron absorber material performance and monitoring in spent fuel pools - 14618

Neutron absorber materials are used in spent fuel pool (SFP) storage racks to control reactivity. In the United States, about half of the operating plants currently use BORAL{sup R} neutron absorber material in SFP racks. Although operational experience spanning more than 25 years has not shown any loss of the BORAL{sup R} core material, corrosion effects, including blisters and pits, have been observed and reported. To improve understanding for the behavior of BORAL{sup R} in SFPs and evaluate the performance of monitoring approaches, EPRI initiated the Zion comparative analysis project in 2014. The Zion project involves three phases. During the first phase of the project, in situ measurements were performed on selected SFP rack panels in December 2014. Panels for in situ measurements were selected after an extensive analysis of each panel in the pool to ensure that the selected panels represented the pool in terms of variation in neutron and gamma dose values. As part of the second phase of the project, the remaining 10 coupons from the Zion SFP were shipped to a Penn State University (PSU) laboratory for analysis in January 2015. During the final phase of the project, a subset of the panels for which in situ measurements were performed will be harvested from the Zion SFP, cut into samples, and analyzed at PSU. The overall scope of this project will allow comparison of in situ measurements to real panel data as well as data obtained from coupon analysis. In this paper, an overview of the Zion comparative analysis project, the criteria and procedure for panel selection for in situ measurements and harvesting, preliminary coupon analysis results and in situ measurement results are presented. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Better Climate Challenge Working Groups Non-Energy Benefits of Energy Projects-Improving Financial Payback

Energy efficiency is a key strategy recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. For manufacturing companies, improving energy efficiency will reduce money spent on energy utilities such as gas, electricity, and oil. Energy improvement projects also provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, such as reducing the carbon footprint, improving safety metrics and even enhancing quality and productivity. Unfortunately, energy efficiency projects have typically faced an adoption gap, even when they meet criteria such as payback period for capital projects. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs), also known as co-benefits, in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback periods for those projects as well as potentially improve the company's key performance metrics aligned with business strategies. There are no readily available tools that facilitate this, however, and the most used tools for energy audits address NEBs in a perfunctory way if at all. We integrated research for finding and quantifying non-energy benefits of energy efficiency projects into a commonly recognized continuous improvement practice, the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC) Process. This process, along with software and supplemental materials, guides energy assessments to find and to quantify NEBs associated with energy conservation opportunities. Our aim is to deliver an easy to use and effective process and software tool and to maximize return on investment for energy efficiency projects as well as contribute to companies' strategic performance goals.

DMAIC↗

Integrated Concurrent Engineering Teams for Increased Efficiency in Flight Projects

A highly integrated Concurrent Engineering Team (CET) within a flight project evolves in its function and has the potential to provide many benefits through the project lifecycle. The benefits include superior systems-oriented design products, as well as overall improved project efficiency and higher-performing interpersonal relationships within the project. If physically integrated, this can manifest as a Concurrent Engineering Center (CEC) centrally located within a project’s physical office space. Here we discuss the process to establish and maintain a tightly integrated engineering and design team for providing highly streamlined service to the project, including a cost/benefits analysis discussion.

Flight Project↗

Integrated Concurrent Engineering Teams for Increased Efficiency in Flight Projects

A highly integrated Concurrent Engineering Team (CET) within a flight project evolves in its function and has the potential to provide many benefits through the project lifecycle. The benefits include superior systems-oriented design products, as well as overall improved project efficiency and higher-performing interpersonal relationships within the project. If physically integrated, this can manifest as a Concurrent Engineering Center (CEC) centrally located within a project’s physical office space. Here we discuss the process to establish and maintain a tightly integrated engineering and design team for providing highly streamlined service to the project, including a cost/benefits analysis discussion.

Flight Project↗

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill.We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

thresholds↗

Multiple Metrics Informed Projections of Future Precipitation in China

Predicting how regional precipitation will respond to future warming is among the most challenging undertaking in climate change projection. Despite sustained efforts to improve modeling and understanding of precipitation, the overall uncertainty in projecting regional precipitation has not been reduced substantially. In this work, the potential for more robust precipitation projections is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metrics to subsample the multimodel ensemble. Using a two-dimensional metric of precipitation and its relationship with large-scale circulation indices in East Asia, 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected statistically significant increasing trends in precipitation and the regional precipitation patterns are more similar to each other than to the patterns in the bottom performing group. In contrast, models in the bottom performing group projected diverse responses, with overall small drying or no significant trends in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multivariate Drought Monitoring, Propagation, and Projection Using Bias-Corrected General Circulation Models

Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability and changes in drought characteristics. This study aims to understand multimodel global drought monitoring, propagation, and projection by utilizing a multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) during the historical (1959–2014) and future (2045–2100) periods under two socioeconomic pathways SSPs (370 and 585), derived from the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on the energy metrics, the multivariate bias correction method outperformed other techniques in correcting the biases in the CMIP6 drought representation. The drought indicators demonstrate distinct categories for meteorological, hydrological, and multivariate droughts. There were significant high cross correlations between Heatwave Total Length (HWTL) and MSDI in Africa and South America for all lagged times. Europe and North America generally saw the maximum MSDI drought duration (228 months) during the historical period. For future projections, Africa recorded the maximum drought duration (197 months), while Europe witnessed the minimum drought duration for SSP 370 (171 months), and North America (149 months) for SSP 585. Furthermore, during the historical period in tropical Africa, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought was slower during the wet months than during the dry months. Under the SSP 370 future projection, there was a shift in the long period of meteorological-hydrological propagation from the middle and late wet months to the beginning of the wet months in tropical Africa. Therefore, tracking and projecting drought characteristics is vital for understanding the risk of drought-related consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected income data under different shared socioeconomic pathways for Washington state

Abstract High-resolution income projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are essential for the climate change research communities to devise climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. To generate income projections for Washington state, we obtain state-level GDP per capita projections and convert them into projected annual household income. The resulting state-level income projections are subsequently downscaled to the census block-level based on the Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) dataset. For accuracy assessment, we downscale historical income data from state- level to block- and block group-level and compare the downscaled results against the actual income data from LODES. County-level accuracy assessment is also conducted based on American Community Survey. The results demonstrate a good agreement (Average R 2 of 0.67, 0.8, and 0.99 for block-, block group-, and county-level, respectively) between the downscaled income data and the reference data, thereby validating the methodology employed. Our approach is applicable to other states for income projections, which can be utilized by a broader audience, including those involved in demographic analysis, economic research, and urban planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: January 1 through December 31, 2017

On April 24, 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted the Project 57 safety experiment in western Emigrant Valley northeast of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS, formerly the Nevada Test Site) on lands withdrawn by the Department of Defense (DOD) for the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). The test was undertaken to develop (1) a means of estimating plutonium distribution resulting from a non-nuclear detonation; (2) biomedical evaluation techniques for use in plutonium-laden environments; (3) methods of surface decontamination; and (4) instruments and field procedures for prompt estimation of alpha contamination (Shreve, 1958). Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the land surface. Following the experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Various radiological surveys were performed in the area and in 2007, the DOE expanded the demarked Contamination Area (CA) by posting signs 200 to 400 ft (60 to 120 m) outside of the original fence. Plutonium in soil attaches preferentially to smaller particles (Tamura, 1985; Friesen, 1992; Murarik et al., 1992; and Misra et al., 1993). Therefore, redistribution of soil particles by wind (dust) and water are the mechanisms most likely to transport plutonium beyond the boundary of the Project 57 CA. Monitoring was implemented in 2011 by Desert Research Institute (DRI) to determine if radionuclide contamination was detectable in samples of airborne dust and to characterize meteorological and environmental parameters that influence dust transport. Initially, two monitoring stations consisting of radiological, meteorological, and dust sampling equipment were installed near the southeast and northeast corners of the CA. In January 2015, the original monitoring stations were dismantled and moved farther to the west along the CA boundary. This move was made to place the monitoring stations downwind of ground zero and the High Contamination Area (HCA) during the dominant northerly and southerly winds. Samples of particles suspended in the air are collected every two weeks and submitted for laboratory assessments of gross alpha and gross beta radioactivity, and for determinations of gamma-emitting radionuclides. In calendar year (CY) 2017, the mean gross alpha concentration at monitoring station P57-4 was approximately 4.25 times the value at monitoring station P57-3. In CY2015 and CY2016, the difference in mean gross alpha concentration at the two stations was approximately 1.5. The mean gross alpha concentrations at P57-3 and P57-4 were approximately 1.9 and 7.9 times, respectively, the mean gross alpha concentrations at the surrounding Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) stations. The minimum gross alpha concentrations reported for the Project 57 stations are in the range of the minimum values observed at the CEMP stations. However, maximum gross alpha concentrations are greater than the maximum concentrations observed at the surrounding CEMP stations. Gamma spectroscopy analyses resulted in the detection of seven radionuclides. Except for americium-241 (Am-241), all reported radionuclides occur naturally in the environment. The Am-241 detection by gamma spectroscopy was confirmed by alpha spectroscopy. During each quarter of CY2017, four suspended particulate matter samples were selected for alpha spectroscopy analysis. Two were selected each quarter from the regular biweekly samples collected at each of the two monitoring stations. Of the eight samples from P57-3, one was reported to have plutonium-238 (Pu-238) above the minimum detectable activity (MDA) and five were reported to have plutonium 239/240 (Pu-239/240) above the MDA. Of the eight samples from P57-4, three were reported to have Pu-238 above the MDA and six were reported to have Pu-239/240 above the MDA. Soil material is also transported by saltation, which is a wind driven phenomena that bounces sand-sized soil particles across the land surface because they are too heavy to be suspended in the air. Samples of particles transported by saltation were collected downwind and upwind of the CA at both monitoring stations in May 2017 after a 190-day deployment and again in September 2017 after a 114-day deployment. Mass of the saltation samples was determined after oven drying. The September sample had greater mass than the May sample. The same relationship was observed for the suspended particulate matter samples during periods of saltation sample collection. The difference in the collected mass appears to be because of the amount of soil moisture. Higher soil moisture exerts additional isotopic bonds between soil particles and water molecules, and between water molecules that envelop soil particles, making it more difficult for wind to raise the particles as dust. In general, samples collected from saltation traps facing south contained more material than samples collected from traps facing north. This suggests that although saltation material may have been moving back and forth in conjunction with the two dominant wind directions, there was a net trend for saltation material to be transported toward the north. Radiological analyses of the saltation samples show that the smaller particle size faction (<63 μm) generally produced the highest activity levels of Am-241, Pu-238, and Pu-239/240. In general, the isotope activity levels decreased as the particle size increased. These results are consistent with the expectation that the greatest potential for transport of radiological contamination is with the smaller particles. Thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) indicated that the average annual external radioactivity dose at the monitoring stations is slightly higher than the dose determined at the surrounding CEMP stations, but approximately half of the estimated national average dose received by the general public from exposure to natural sources. The TLDs at the Project 57 monitoring stations are exposed to both natural sources (terrestrial and cosmic) and radioactive releases from the Project 57 CA. Winds in excess of approximately 15 mph (24 km/hr) begin to generate dust movement by saltation or suspension, as determined by the monitoring instruments. Saltated particles, PM10 (i.e., inhalable dust), and PM2.5 (i.e., fine particulate dust) exhibit an approximately exponential increase with increasing wind speed. The greatest concentrations of dust occurred for winds exceeding 20 mph (32 km/hr). When the wind/dust analysis was performed for winds separated into the dominant northerly and southerly wind directions, it was evident that the northerly winds generated the higher PM10 concentrations and had the dominate influence on the PM10 concentration determined for all wind speeds when all wind directions were evaluated together. During the year, winds in excess of 20 mph (32 km/hr) occurred approximately one percent of the time. Although winds sufficient to generate dust occur at the Project 57 site, they are infrequent and of short duration. A preliminary assessment of individual wind events suggests that dust generation in response to specific wind conditions is highly variable. Wind speeds that would be expected to generate noticeable dust may not do so in every instance. Additionally, saltation transport in response to wind conditions was less common than expected. These variations were likely because of the influence of meteorological and environmental parameters other than wind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗