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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk for Astronauts on Lunar Missions

During future lunar missions, exposure to solar particle events (SPEs) is a major safety concern for crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar surface or Earth-to-moon transit. NASA s new lunar program anticipates that up to 15% of crew time may be on EVA, with minimal radiation shielding. For the operational challenge to respond to events of unknown size and duration, a probabilistic risk assessment approach is essential for mission planning and design. Using the historical database of proton measurements during the past 5 solar cycles, a typical hazard function for SPE occurrence was defined using a non-homogeneous Poisson model as a function of time within a non-specific future solar cycle of 4000 days duration. Distributions ranging from the 5th to 95th percentile of particle fluences for a specified mission period were simulated. Organ doses corresponding to particle fluences at the median and at the 95th percentile for a specified mission period were assessed using NASA s baryon transport model, BRYNTRN. The cancer fatality risk for astronauts as functions of age, gender, and solar cycle activity were then analyzed. The probability of exceeding the NASA 30- day limit of blood forming organ (BFO) dose inside a typical spacecraft was calculated. Future work will involve using this probabilistic risk assessment approach to SPE forecasting, combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Study and modeling of finite rate chemistry effects in turbulent non-premixed flames

The development of numerical models that reflect some of the most important features of turbulent reacting flows requires information about the behavior of key quantities in well defined combustion regimes. In turbulent flames, the coupling between turbulent and chemical processes is so strong that it is extremely difficult to isolate the role played by one individual physical phenomenon. Direct numerical simulation (hereafter DNS) allows us to study in detail the turbulence-chemistry interaction in some restricted but completely defined situations. Globally, non-premixed flames are controlled by two limiting regimes: the fast chemistry case, where the turbulent flame can be pictured as a random distribution of local chemical equilibrium problems; and the slow chemistry case, where the chemistry integrates in time the turbulent fluctuations. The Damkoehler number, ratio of a mechanical time scale to chemical time scale, is used to distinguish between these regimes. Today most of the industrial computer codes are able to perform predictions in the hypothesis of local equilibrium chemistry using a presumed shape for the probability density function (pdt) of the conserved scalar. However, the finite rate chemistry situation is of great interest because industrial burners usually generate regimes in which, at some points, the flame is undergoing local extinction or at least non-equilibrium situations. Moreover, this variety of situations strongly influences the production of pollutants. To quantify finite rate chemistry effect, the interaction between a non-premixed flame and a free decaying turbulence is studied using DNS. The attention is focused on the dynamic of extinction, and an attempt is made to quantify the effect of the reaction on the small scale mixing process. The unequal diffusivity effect is also addressed. Finally, a simple turbulent combustion model based on the DNS observations and tractable in real flow configurations is proposed.

Vervisch, Luc↗
NASA NTRS2009

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic design optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design components of an airframe structure that can be made of metallic and composite materials. The design is obtained as a function of the risk level, or reliability, p. The design method treats uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties as distribution functions, which are defined with mean values and standard deviations. A design constraint or a failure mode is specified as a function of reliability p. Solution to stochastic optimization yields the weight of a structure as a function of reliability p. Optimum weight versus reliability p traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the inverted-S graph corresponded to 50 percent (p = 0.5) probability of success. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponds to unity for reliability p (or p = 1). Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a reliability that approaches zero (p = 0). Reliability can be changed for different components of an airframe structure. For example, the landing gear can be designed for a very high reliability, whereas it can be reduced to a small extent for a raked wingtip. The SDO capability is obtained by combining three codes: (1) The MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, (2) The fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and (3) NASA Glenn Research Center s optimization testbed CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life raked wingtip structure of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Triton's cratering record and its time of capture

Recent impact crater counts on the Voyager 2 high resolution images of Triton have resulted in a more accurate crater size/frequency distribution down to about 3 km diameter. These counts reveal a size/frequency distribution characterized by a differential -4 slope. This is consistent with the observation that there are no craters larger than 27 km diameter on the 20 percent of Triton viewed at resolutions capable of detecting them. A -4 slope is deficient in large craters and at the very low crater density on Triton no craters larger than about 30 km are expected on just 20 percent of the satellite. The Triton size distribution is significantly different from the differential -3 slope of the fresh crater population on Miranda, but both show leading/trailing asymmetries. Since Miranda is in prograde orbit this crater population is probably due to objects in heliocentric orbit, i.e., comets. If this crater population is due to comets, then the significantly different crater population on Triton is probably due to some other population of impacting objects. The most likely origin of these objects is planetesimals in planetocentric orbits. Because Triton is in retrograde orbit, objects in prograde planetocentric orbits will also produce a leading/trailing asymmetry. If the Triton craters are largely the result of objects in planetocentric orbit, then where are the comet craters that should be there if they have a differential -3 distribution function as inferred from the Miranda fresh crater population? The most likely answer is that they are there, but at such a low density that they can not be distinguished from the planetocentric population. An upper bound on this density can be estimated by determining the density of a crater population with a differential -3 slope where no craters larger than 27 km would be expected on the 20 percent of Triton viewed by Voyager at resolutions sufficient to detect them. This density is at the density of the largest crater. At this density the number of craters in size bins greater than 27 km is less than 1 for a -3 distribution function. The observed size distribution, the upper limit of the hypothetical comet crater size distribution, and the difference between the observed and the hypothetical comet crater populations is shown.

Strom, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Quantum Probability Cancellation Due to a Single-Photon State

When an N-photon state enters a lossless symmetric beamsplitter from one input port, the photon distribution for the two output ports has the form of Bernouli Binormial, with highest probability at equal partition (N/2 at one outport and N/2 at the other). However, injection of a single photon state at the other input port can dramatically change the photon distribution at the outputs, resulting in zero probability at equal partition. Such a strong deviation from classical particle theory stems from quantum probability amplitude cancellation. The effect persists even if the N-photon state is replaced by an arbitrary state of light. A special case is the coherent state which corresponds to homodyne detection of a single photon state and can lead to the measurement of the wave function of a single photon state.

Ou, Z. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Plasma Environment at Mercury

Mercury is the least explored terrestrial planet, and the one subjected to the highest flux of solar radiation in the heliosphere. Its highly dynamic, miniature magnetosphere contains ions from the exosphere and solar wind, and at times may allow solar wind ions to directly impact the planet's surface. Together these features create a plasma environment that shares many features with, but is nonetheless very different from, that of Earth. The first in situ measurements of plasma ions in the Mercury space environment were made only recently, by the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer (FIPS) during the MESSENGER spacecraft's three flybys of the planet in 2008-2009 as the probe was en route to insertion into orbit about Mercury earlier this year. Here. we present analysis of flyby and early orbital mission data with novel techniques that address the particular challenges inherent in these measurements. First. spacecraft structures and sensor orientation limit the FIPS field of view and allow only partial sampling of velocity distribution functions. We use a software model of FIPS sampling in velocity space to explore these effects and recover bulk parameters under certain assumptions. Second, the low densities found in the Mercury magnetosphere result in a relatively low signal-to-noise ratio for many ions. To address this issue, we apply a kernel density spread function to guide removal of background counts according to a background-signature probability map. We then assign individual counts to particular ion species with a time-of-flight forward model, taking into account energy losses in the carbon foil and other physical behavior of ions within the instrument. Using these methods, we have derived bulk plasma properties and heavy ion composition and evaluated them in the context of the Mercury magnetosphere.

Raines, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surveillance and Datalink Communication Performance Analysis for Distributed Separation Assurance System Architectures

This study investigates the effects of two technical enablers: Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) and digital datalink communication, of the Federal Aviation Administration s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under two separation assurance (SA) system architectures: ground-based SA and airborne SA, on overall separation assurance performance. Datalink performance such as successful reception probability in both surveillance and communication messages, and surveillance accuracy are examined in various operational conditions. Required SA performance is evaluated as a function of subsystem performance, using availability, continuity, and integrity metrics to establish overall required separation assurance performance, under normal and off-nominal conditions.

Chung, William W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wavelet flow for extragalactic foreground simulations

Extragalactic foregrounds in cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations are both a source of cosmological and astrophysical information and a nuisance to the CMB. Effective field-level modeling that captures their non-Gaussian statistical distributions is increasingly important for optimal information extraction, particularly given the low-noise observations from current and upcoming experiments. Here, we explore the use of Wavelet Flow (WF) models to tackle the novel task of modeling the field-level probability distributions of multi-component CMB secondaries and foregrounds. Specifically, we jointly train correlated CMB lensing convergence (κ) and cosmic infrared background (CIB) maps with a WF model and obtain a network that statistically recovers the input to high accuracy — the trained network generates samples of κ and CIB fields whose average power spectra are within a few percent of the inputs across all scales, and whose Minkowski functionals are similarly accurate compared to the inputs. Leveraging the multiscale architecture of these models, we fine-tune both the model parameters and the priors at each scale independently, optimizing performance across different resolutions. These results demonstrate that WF models can accurately simulate correlated components of CMB secondaries, supporting improved analysis of cosmological data. Our code and trained models can be found on this GitHub repo.

cosmological simulations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

An altitude-dependent spacecraft charging model

A model for the altitude dependence of the hot plasma parameters responsible for the electrostatic charging of spacecraft was developed. Based upon plasma orbit theory, the directed velocity is a function of the ambient magnetic field flux density. A consequence of this approach is that while the thermal velocity distributions (assumed to be Maxwellian) of the plasma particles are independent of the magnetic field strength (and hence altitude), the particle densities increase with magnetic field strength. Thus, according to this model, while the equilibrium voltage is independent of altitude, the charging current density increases with decreasing altitude. However, the probability of such spacecraft charging decreases with decreasing altitude.

Haffner, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Age-related changes in human vestibulo-ocular and optokinetic reflexes: Pseudorandom rotation tests

The dynamic response properties of horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) and optokinetic reflex (OKR) were characterized in 216 human subjects ranging in age from 7 to 81 years. The object of this cross-sectional study was to determine the effects of aging on VOR and OKR reflex dynamics, and to identify the distributions of parameters which describe VOR and OKR responses to pseudorandom stimuli in a putatively normal population. In general, VOR and OKR response parameters changed in a manner consistent with declining function with increasing age. For the VOR this was reflected in declining response amplitudes, although the magnitude of the decline was small relative to the variability of the data. For the OKR the lag time of the response, probably associated with the time required for visual information processing, increased linearly with age at a rate of about 1 ms per year.

Peterka, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A computationally efficient model for turbulent droplet dispersion in spray combustion

A novel model for turbulent droplet dispersion is formulated having significantly improved computational efficiency in comparison to the conventional point source stochastic sampling methodology. In the proposed model, a computational parcel representing a group of physical particles is considered to have a normal (Gaussian) probability density function (PDF) in three-dimensional space. The mean of each PDF is determined by Lagrangian tracking of each computational parcel, either deterministically or stochastically. The variance is represented by a turbulence-induced mean squared dispersion which is based on statistical inferences from the linearized direct modeling formulation for particle/eddy interactions. Convolution of the computational parcel PDF's produces a single PDF for the physical particle distribution profile. The validity of the new model is established by comparison with the conventional stochastic sampling method, where in each parcel is represented by a delta function distribution, for non-evaporating particles injected into simple turbulent air flows.

Litchford, Ron J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Pseudo-wavelet analysis of turbulence patterns in three vegetation layers

Ramp patterns in scalar traces such as temperature are the signature of coherent structures. A pseudo-wavelet analysis technique was developed in which ideal saw-tooth patterns of varying size were used as basis functions and fitted to temperature and velocity data. Data recorded from three very different vegetation stands were examined in this study. It was found that the most probable structure duration for the forest canopy was in the range 35-40 s, for the orchard canopy it was 20-25 s and for the maize it was 15-20 s. When expressed in non-dimensional form, the structure duration probability distribution for the maize canopy was about a decade larger than for the forest canopy, with the orchard canopy intermediate. The mean eddy duration versus wind shear relation falls on a narrow band for all three canopies, indicating that wind shear at the canopy top is the determining factor for the scale of the coherent eddies. The inverse of duration and intermittency of coherent structures exhibits a tendency of independence from wind shear at higher wind shear values. Coherent structures transport heat in a more efficient way than do smaller scale, less coherent motions. In all the canopies, the heat flux fractions associated with coherent structures are at least 10% higher than the corresponding time fraction.

Qiu, Jie↗
NASA NTRS1997

Spectral Models of Neutron Star Magnetospheres

We revisit the association of unidentified Galactic plane EGRET sources with tracers of recent massive star formation and death. Up-to-date catalogs of OB associations, SNR's, young pulsars, H2 regions and young open clusters were used in finding counterparts for a recent list of EGRET sources. It has been argued for some time that EGRET source positions are correlated with SNR's and OB associations as a class; we extend such analyses by finding additional counterparts and assessing the probability of individual source identifications. Among the several scenarios relating EGRET sources to massive stars, we focus on young neutron stars as the origin of the gamma-ray emission. The characteristics of the candidate identifications are compared to the known gamma-ray pulsar sample and to detailed Galactic population syntheses using our outer gap pulsar model of gamma-ray emission. Both the spatial distribution and luminosity function of the candidates are in good agreement with the model predictions; we infer that young pulsars can account for the bulk of the excess low latitude EGRET sources. We show that with this identification, the gamma-ray point sources provide an important new window into the history of recent massive star death in the solar neighborhood.

Romani, Roger W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Simulation Based Approach to Optimize Berth Throughput Under Uncertainty at Marine Container Terminals

Berth scheduling is a critical function at marine container terminals and determining the best berth schedule depends on several factors including the type and function of the port, size of the port, location, nearby competition, and type of contractual agreement between the terminal and the carriers. In this paper we formulate the berth scheduling problem as a bi-objective mixed-integer problem with the objective to maximize customer satisfaction and reliability of the berth schedule under the assumption that vessel handling times are stochastic parameters following a discrete and known probability distribution. A combination of an exact algorithm, a Genetic Algorithms based heuristic and a simulation post-Pareto analysis is proposed as the solution approach to the resulting problem. Based on a number of experiments it is concluded that the proposed berth scheduling policy outperforms the berth scheduling policy where reliability is not considered.

Golias, Mihalis M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Changes in the frequency distribution of energy deposited in short pathlengths as a function of energy degradation of the primary beam.

The frequency distributions of event size in the deposition of energy over small pathlengths have been measured after penetration of 44.3 MeV protons through various thicknesses of tissue-equivalent material. Results show that particle energy straggling of an initially monoenergetic proton beam after passage through an absorber causes the frequency distributions of energy deposited in short pathlengths of low atomic number materials to remain broad. In all cases investigated, the ratio of the most probable to the average energy losses has been significantly less than unity.

Baily, N. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiplicity dependence of charged-particle intra-jet properties in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The first measurement of the multiplicity dependence of intra-jet properties of leading charged-particle jets in proton–proton (pp) collisions is reported. The mean charged particle multiplicity and jet fragmentation distributions are measured in minimum-bias and high-multiplicity pp collisions at center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using the ALICE detector. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles produced in the midrapidity region (|η| < 0.9) using the sequential recombination anti-k T algorithm with jet resolution parameters R = 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 for the trans verse momentum (p T ) interval 5–110 GeV/c. The high multiplicity events are selected by the forward V0 scintilla tor detectors. The mean charged-particle multiplicity inside the leading jet cone rises monotonically with increasing jet p T in qualitative agreement with previous measurements at lower energies. The distributions of jet fragmentation function variables z ch and ξ ch are measured for different jet-p T intervals. Jet-p T independent fragmentation of leading jets is observed for wider jets except at high- and low-z ch values. The observed “hump-backed plateau” structure in the ξ ch distribution indicates suppression of low-p T particles. In high-multiplicity events, an enhancement of the fragmen tation probability of low-z ch particles accompanied by a suppression of high-zch particles is observed compared to minimum-bias events. This behavior becomes more promi nent for low-p T jets with larger jet radius. The results are compared with predictions of QCD-inspired event generators, PYTHIA 8 with Monash 2013 tune and EPOS LHC. It is found that PYTHIA 8 qualitatively reproduces the jet modification in high-multiplicity events except at high jet p T . These measurements provide important constraints to models of jet fragmentation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗