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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38

Probabilistic design applications for the Space Transportation Main Engines

All of the current rocket engine designs are based on deterministic design analysis methods. The most recently designed engine, Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), was designed and developed using these techniques in the 1970's and 80's. The Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) design objective is to use a robust design methodology and to pro-actively assess and improve the design during the design process. The design approach is a combination of the traditional deterministic methodologies and recently developed probabilistic methodologies. The designer must use a more rigorous structural criteria, conduct pro-active reliability assessments (reliability allocations, failure modes and effects analysis, reliability growth studies, and design reliability assessment), use a damage tolerant design philosophy and perform probabilistic analyses. Rigorous application of this structured methodology will develop a better engine product.

Ohara, Kevin↗

Research program for experiment M133

The development of the automatic data-acquisition and sleep-analysis system is reported. The purpose was consultation and evaluation in the transition of the Skylab M133 Sleep-Monitoring Experiment equipment from prototype of flight status; review of problems associated with acquisition and on-line display of data in near-real time via spacecraft telemetry; and development of laboratory facilities and design of equipment to assure reliable playback and analysis of analog data. The existing prototype system modified, and the changes improve the performance of the analysis circuitry and increase its reliability. These modifications are useful for pre- and postflight analysis, but are not now proposed for the inflight system. There were improvements in the EEG recording cap, some of which will be incorporated into the flight hardware.

Frost, J. D., Jr.↗

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Strack, William C.↗

Fault Diagnosis of Power Components with Reliability Assessment in Extraterrestrial Microgrids

This research investigates the possible failures caused by aging and other environmental and external factors that could significantly impact the performance of extraterrestrial power systems. Additionally, it presents a reliability assessment model for the space microgrid based on fault tree analysis (FTA). The reliability assessment model developed in this paper represents a tool that can be used by engineers to harden the system design for operational and economic benefits. To improve the reliability of the system, this work provides a broad review of the different fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) algorithms used for power microgrids and space applications. Using data sets from the Habitat Simulator developed through the NASA-funded Resilient Extraterrestrial Habitat Institute, this paper compares the applicability and accuracy of the different FDD methods. The primary FDD approach proposed and assessed in this work is based on the Markov reliability model. It predicts and detects future faults in the space microgrids by using past data samples and categorizing them into different classes. Data-driven-based models such as artificial neural networks are also investigated, tested, and evaluated using simulation data sets. According to the simulation results and the broad FDD algorithm comparison, this study provides the crew or maintenance engineers with a clear methodology to detect and localize power system failures.

Leila Chebbo↗

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.

Church, Curtis K.↗

Comparison Modeling of System Reliability for Future NASA Projects

A National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) supported Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA) analysis team developed a unique RMA analysis methodology using cut set and importance measure analysis in order to comparison model proposed avionics computing architectures. In this paper we will present this efficient application of the RMA analysis methodology for importance measures that includes Reliability Block Diagram (RED) Analysis, Comparison modeling, Cut Set Analysis, and Importance Measure Analysis. We will also demonstrate that integrating RMA early in the system design process as a key to success by providing a fundamental decision metric supporting design selection. The RMA analysis methodology presented in this paper and applied to the avionics architectures enhances the usual way of predicting the need for redundancy based on failure rates or subject matter expert opinion. Using the REDs and the minimal cut sets, along with the Fussell-Vesely (FV) factors, importance measures are calculated for each functional element in the architectures. This paper presents an application of the FV importance measures and presents an improved methodology for using importance measures in success space (instead of failure space) to compare architectures. These importance measures are used to determine which functional element would be most likely to cause a system failure, thus, quickly identifying the path to increase the overall system reliability by either procuring more reliable functional elements or adding redundancy. This application of the RMA analysis methodology, using RBD analysis, cut set analysis, and the importance measure analysis, allows the avionics design team to better understand and compare the vulnerabilities in each of the architectures, enabling them to address the deficiencies in the design architectures more efficiently, while balancing the need to design for optimum weight and space allocations.

Gillespie, Amanda M.↗

Application of advanced reliability methods to local strain fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) might become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple, and easily constructed, second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, T. T.↗

Hazard Analysis to Support Fusion Systems Safety Assessments

Reliability, safety, and performance are vital aspects of any nuclear operation. Fusion technology continues to grow in public, private, and research interest, and coupled with rapidly growing energy needs, fusion technology research is poised for fast progress. The development of a Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is seen as stepping stone for demonstrating long-cycle fusion. Naturally, such operation requires systems that are available, reliable, and safe. This work provides a novel demonstration of systems theory coupled with traditional hazard analysis to provide insights into the risk priority of components and systems found within the FNSF. The results of this work are a set of identified hazards that should be considered for the risk-informed design and development of the FNSF.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Off-line data analysis and data reduction from digitally controlled random test systems.

This paper discusses the merits of employing the new computer-controlled random environment control systems for fast and efficient large-scale data analysis when they are not being used for test control. Hardware and software requirements are stated. Several of the more familiar frequency functions are defined from the Fourier coefficients, the main product of the Fourier processors used in these control systems. Another function, the probability density function, is defined and suggestions for its application are made. An analysis example is presented. Some programming tips are listed, and the accuracy and reliability of frequency analysis measurements are considered.

Chapman, C. P.↗

Failure modes, effects and criticality analyses.

Failure mode, effects and criticality analyses were developed by NASA as a means of assuring that hardware built for space applications has the desired reliability characteristics. The failure mode and effects analysis is a qualitative reliability technique for systematically analyzing each possible failure mode within a hardware system, and identifying the resulting effect on that system, the mission and personnel. The criticality analysis is a quantitative procedure which ranks the critical failure modes according to their probability of occurrence. This paper describes the failure modes, effects analysis and the criticality analysis. It employs a simple hardware system, not related to the aerospace field, to illustrate the method. It encourages application of this type of analysis to industrial development programs outside the aerospace and defense complex.

Jordan, W. E.↗

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

Comparative analysis of different configurations of PLC-based safety systems from reliability point of view

The study of a comparative analysis of distinct multiplex and fault-tolerant configurations for a PLC-based safety system from a reliability point of view is presented. It considers simplex, duplex and fault-tolerant triple redundancy configurations. The standby unit in case of a duplex configuration has a failure rate which is k times the failure rate of the standby unit, the value of k varying from 0 to 1. For distinct values of MTTR and MTTF of the main unit, MTBF and availability for these configurations are calculated. The effect of duplexing only the PLC module or only the sensors and the actuators module, on the MTBF of the configuration, is also presented. The results are summarized and merits and demerits of various configurations under distinct environments are discussed.

Tapia, Moiez A.↗

Large Satellite Bus Reliability

NASA is proposing to build a small space station in Cis-lunar orbit called Deep Space Gateway (DSG). At the heart of the DSG is the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) which is conceptually similar to previously designed and operated satellite buses. A satellite bus is composed of the satellite spacecraft infrastructure minus the payload, and generally includes power, propulsion, avionics, and guidance, navigation and control. In November of 2017, five companies were awarded contracts by NASA to research PPE designs. In order to better understand the reliability of large satellite buses which may be the starting point of the PPE, NASA used Weibull analysis to evaluate spacecraft with similar masses and design life to the PPE. In addition, a subset of the large satellites which had satellite buses manufactured by any one of the five companies was also evaluated. This paper provides the results of the reliability analysis and compares the reliability of the general population of large satellites to the reliability associated with large satellite buses manufactured by the five companies currently studying PPE options.

Bus↗

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Basili, Victor R.↗

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling project of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies to enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. Information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. In Volume I, the concept of the Scenario was introduced as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. In this Volume II, that study continues into the analyses of the free narratives to gain understanding as to why the incident occurred from the reporter s perspective. While this is just the first experiment, the results of our approach are encouraging and indicate that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that can achieve the level of consistency and reliability of human analysis of narrative reports.

Ferryman, Thomas A.↗

Photovoltaic module reliability improvement through application testing and failure analysis

During the first four years of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Photovoltatic Program, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Low-Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project purchased about 400 kW of photovoltaic modules for test and experiments. In order to identify, report, and analyze test and operational problems with the Block Procurement modules, a problem/failure reporting and analysis system was implemented by the LSA Project with the main purpose of providing manufacturers with feedback from test and field experience needed for the improvement of product performance and reliability. A description of the more significant types of failures is presented, taking into account interconnects, cracked cells, dielectric breakdown, delamination, and corrosion. Current design practices and reliability evaluations are also discussed. The conducted evaluation indicates that current module designs incorporate damage-resistant and fault-tolerant features which address field failure mechanisms observed to date.

Dumas, L. N.↗

Analysis of pilot-aircraft performance and reliability via the application of man-machine models

The present approach to analytic modeling, which utilizes human response theory together with modern control theory, is discussed. Analytic modeling of human performance has progressed to the point where it can be used with some confidence in the design and performance analysis of man-machine systems. An example of its use in helping design a flight director for the hover control of a VTOL vehicle is described. How the method could be used for analysis of human response to system failure is sketched.

Kleinman, D. L.↗

LSI/VLSI design for testability analysis and general approach

The incorporation of testability characteristics into large scale digital design is not only necessary for, but also pertinent to effective device testing and enhancement of device reliability. There are at least three major DFT techniques, namely, the self checking, the LSSD, and the partitioning techniques, each of which can be incorporated into a logic design to achieve a specific set of testability and reliability requirements. Detailed analysis of the design theory, implementation, fault coverage, hardware requirements, application limitations, etc., of each of these techniques are also presented.

Lam, A. Y.↗