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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

H2OI95: A Stand-Alone Fortran Code for Evaluating the IAPWS-95 Equation-of-State Model for Water (Rev. 1)

H2OI95 is a stand-alone Fortran code for evaluating the IAPWS-95 equation-of-state model for the thermodynamic properties of water. It also evaluates the corresponding thermochemical properties of water consistent with the CODATA recommendations. The IAPWS-95 model is based on a model equation for the dimensionless Helmholtz energy for which the primary variables are the inverse reduced temperature (τ = T cr /T ) and reduced density (δ = ρ/ρ cr ). Here T is the absolute temperature (K), ρ is density (kg/m³), and the subscript “ cr ” refers to the critical point of water (647.096 K and 22.064 MPa pressure in this model, for which ρ cr is 322 kg/m³). The code solves four basic types of problems, distinguished by the specified inputs: 1. Temperature (K) and density (ρ kg/m³) or reduced density (δ) 2. Temperature (K) and pressure (MPa). 3. Temperature (K) on the saturation (liquid-vapor equilibrium) curve 4. Pressure (MPa) on the saturation curve. Each type of problem is run using a corresponding input (text) file. All but the first type of problem require iteration. For example, to solve for desired temperature and pressure, the reduced density must be adjusted to give the desired pressure. Iteration is accomplished using the Newton-Raphson method, though the secant method is also used in solving the fourth type of problem. For the last three types of problems, H2OI95 has been used to conduct numerical studies of convergence and the problem of multiple numerical solutions, some of which are not physically valid. Obtaining valid results depends mainly on appropriate choice of starting values for the density. The default values used in H2OI95 appear to consistently lead to generally desired results. With modification (not addressed here), H2OI95 can be used to support SUPCRT92 and similar codes that compute chemical thermodynamic properties of species and reactions over a wide range of temperature and pressure (273.16-1273K and 0-1000 MPa). Version 1.1 of this software calculates an extended set of water properties, including some derivable solely from IAPWS-95, such as the isobaric thermal expansivity and the isothermal compressibility, and still other properties based on supplementary models sanctioned by IAPWS, including the dynamic viscosity, thermal conductivity, surface tension, and static dielectric constant, and various other properties (notably Debye-Hückel parameters) derivable from the dielectric constant and its partial derivatives with respect to temperature and pressure. A coding error in Version 1.0 was identified while testing the implementation of the viscosity model. This error is described in Appendix C. It mainly affects calculation of “higher order” properties such as compressibility and heat capacity near the critical point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of InSAR Seasonal Movements at Bayou Choctaw SPR Site

Ground deformation is important to monitor for the ongoing safety and stability of underground caverns. Implementing InSAR technology to monitor site-wide surface deformation at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has revealed seasonal ground movements at Bayou Choctaw in Louisiana. The cyclic, seasonal pattern shows soil shrinkage during the spring and summer months and soil expansion during the fall and winter months. Prior to this report, no in-depth investigation was conducted to explain this seasonal phenomenon. However, the ground movement is believed to be near-surface and not geological due to the relatively insignificant movement between years. To better understand seasonality movements, soil properties, land cover, and climatic conditions are assessed to relate near-surface water and soil interactions. The soil, land, and climatic properties all contribute to seasonal ground movement, and vegetation cover and the soil's water capacity contribute to the spatial variability of InSAR seasonal measurements at Bayou Choctaw.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1993

Obstacle detection by recognizing binary expansion patterns

This paper describes a technique for obstacle detection, based on the expansion of the image-plane projection of a textured object, as its distance from the sensor decreases. Information is conveyed by vectors whose components represent first-order temporal and spatial derivatives of the image intensity, which are related to the time to collision through the local divergence. Such vectors may be characterized as patterns corresponding to 'safe' or 'dangerous' situations. We show that essential information is conveyed by single-bit vector components, representing the signs of the relevant derivatives. We use two recently developed, high capacity classifiers, employing neural learning techniques, to recognize the imminence of collision from such patterns.

Baram, Yoram↗
NASA NTRS1998

Autoregulation of cerebral blood flow in orthostatic hypotension

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to evaluate cerebral autoregulation in patients with orthostatic hypotension (OH). METHODS: We studied 21 patients (aged 52 to 78 years) with neurogenic OH during 80 degrees head-up tilt. Blood flow velocities (BFV) from the middle cerebral artery were continuously monitored with transcranial Doppler sonography, as were heart rate, blood pressure (BP), cardiac output, stroke volume, CO2, total peripheral resistance, and cerebrovascular resistance. RESULTS: All OH patients had lower BP (P<.0001), BFV_diastolic (P<.05), CVR (P<.007), and TPR (P<.02) during head-up tilt than control subjects. In control subjects, no correlations between BFV and BP were found during head-up tilt, suggesting normal autoregulation. OH patients could be separated into those with normal or expanded autoregulation (OH_NA; n=16) and those with autoregulatory failure (OH_AF; n=5). The OH_NA group showed either no correlation between BFV and BP (n=8) or had a positive BFV/BP correlation (R2>.75) but with a flat slope. An expansion of the "autoregulated" range was seen in some patients. The OH_AF group was characterized by a profound fall in BFV in response to a small reduction in BP (mean deltaBP <40 mm Hg; R2>.75). CONCLUSIONS: The most common patterns of cerebral response to OH are autoregulatory failure with a flat flow-pressure relationship or intact autoregulation with an expanded autoregulated range. The least common pattern is autoregulatory failure with a steep flow-pressure relationship. Patients with patterns 1 and 2 have an enhanced capacity to cope with OH, while those with pattern 3 have reduced capacity.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban stormwater drainage system in Tampa, Florida (USA)

Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections” Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from –40% to 160%, and –40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multimodal Nanoscale Mapping of Local Structure and CO 2 Adsorption in Metal–Organic Frameworks

Diamine functionalization of the metal−organic framework Mg 2 (dobpdc) (dobpdc 4− = 4,4′-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3′-dicarboxylate) significantly enhances its selectivity for CO 2 capture from flue gases and air. The structure and CO 2 capacity of such materials are typically assessed using bulk techniques that rely on averaging signal over large ensembles of unit cells, obscuring local heterogeneities, such as variations in CO 2 occupancy across individual nanocrystals. To resolve this limitation, we demonstrate a multimodal, nanoscale characterization of Mg 2 (dobpdc) appended with 1,3-diaminopropane. By employing recently developed characterization techniques at progressively smaller length scales, we uncover insights from correspondingly smaller populations of unit cells. First, we use parallel-beam 3D electron diffraction (3D ED) to identify a prominent expansion in lattice parameters upon desorption of CO 2 , as observed at the level of single nanocrystals. Second, we use convergent-probe 4D scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) to quantify associated differences in lattice strain as a function of gas loading and diamine appending. These measurements sample small subvolumes within individual nanocrystals. Finally, we apply infrared scattering scanning near-field optical microscopy (IR s- SNOM) to confirm variable CO 2 chemisorption across adsorption sites at the surface of single nanocrystals. This multimodal, multiscale approach allows us to map heterogeneity within individual nanocrystals. Collectively, these findings emphasize the importance of local, nanoscale characterization of metal−organic frameworks in revealing previously unresolvable features that impact their performance.

Karstens, Sarah L. [University of California, Berk↗
DOE OSTI2022

Composite Solid Ion Conductor with Engineered Lithium Interface

Successful widespread commercialization of electric vehicles is contingent upon development of safe high energy density batteries capable of long cycle life. Lithium metal affords the highest theoretical capacity (3,860 mAh/g) and lowest electrochemical potential (-3.04V vs SHE), which offers the highest specific energy density of anode materials today. While Li-ion batteries are capable of delivering energy densities of 400-600 Wh/kg, the development of lithium metal batteries such as Li-S and Li-air may boost this number up to 650 and 950 Wh/kg, respectively. However, significant progress towards the passivation of lithium metal must occur before the energy density benefit can be realized. Issues with lithium dendrite formation, anode volume expansion, and continuous solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) build-up often result in significant safety concerns, high cell resistance, and poor cycle life. The intrinsic high reactivity between lithium metal with conventional lithium ion electrolytes (organic carbonate-based solvents) makes it extremely difficult to overcome these problems. In this project, Wildcat performed focused, fundamental research and development on composite polymer/ceramic electrolytes and protected lithium metal anodes to develop an all solid state lithium metal battery targeting the DOE requirements to enable commercialization. Wildcat successfully leveraged its high throughput battery platform and explored a broad composite electrolyte compositional space. Additionally, Wildcat screened large numbers of inorganic and organic coatings for lithium metal protection using in situ liquid methods and translated the best results to all solid cells. The proposed composite polymer/ceramic electrolyte and a protected lithium metal anode enabled a solid-state lithium metal battery. The ultimate targets from this effort will deliver a safe all solid-state lithium metal pouch cell with over 350 Wh/kg and over 1,000 cycles (C/3) with the cost estimate below $100/kWh. During the course of the project, we demonstrated stable cycling of 10’s of cycles with the composite SSE and our protected lithium. The work has continued after the conclusion of the DOE funding, demonstrating further improvements in catholyte composition and thinner composite solid electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerating Ocean-Based Renewable Energy Educational Opportunities to Achieve a Clean Energy Future

The United Nations has named 2021–2030 the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development with goals to 'strengthen the international cooperation needed to develop the scientific research and innovative technologies that can connect ocean science with the needs of society' (IOC 2019 The science we need for the ocean we want: the United Nations decade of ocean science for sustainable development (2021–2030) (Paris) p 24). Important actions that have been identified in support of sustainable development goals include capacity-building, training, and education. This includes educational opportunities for ocean-based renewable energy development in support of a healthy planet and ocean. Offshore wind is experiencing rapid development globally and, while the U.S. offshore wind market is still nascent, it is on the brink of exponential growth based on large cost reductions driven largely by European development and technology advances. Growth is also expected in wave and tidal energy with significant opportunities identified for various distributed markets through the Powering the Blue Economy™ initiative, with longer-term implications for expansion at the utility scale (LiVecchi et al 2019 Powering the blue economy; exploring opportunities for marine renewable energy in maritime markets p 207). In order to expedite progress and maximize benefits to the national, state, and local economies, these development actions will require a broad, diverse, and appropriately trained workforce. The ocean-based renewable energy workforce needs engineers and scientists to develop cost-effective technologies, as well as trade and maritime workers to eventually deploy the technologies at scale. In the United States, educational institutions, state governments, and private developers are taking action to understand job skills and capability requirements and to develop educational and training programs to meet offshore workforce needs; most are focused on offshore wind power, with gaining interest in marine energy. This article explores the workforce requirements of the growing ocean-based renewable energy industry and the current state of education and training programs to meet those requirements in order to identify gaps and make recommendations for further workforce development activities and initiatives. An international view needs to be adopted that incorporates the education and skill needs of early-stage marine energy technologies and evolving offshore wind technologies together with more market-ready offshore renewable energy markets. By accelerating educational development opportunities in ocean-based renewable energy, these growing blue economy markets can deliver significant economic and social benefits.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Stabilization in Nanoporous Intermetallic Alloy Anodes for Li-Ion Batteries Using Operando Transmission X-ray Microscopy

Tin-based alloying anodes are exciting due to their high energy density. Unfortunately, these materials pulverize after repetitive cycling due to the large volume expansion during lithiation and delithiation; both nanostructuring and intermetallic formation can help alleviate this structural damage. Here, these ideas are combined in nanoporous antimony–tin (NP-SbSn) powders, synthesized by a simple and scalable selective-etching method. The NP-SbSn exhibits bimodal porosity that facilitates electrolyte diffusion; those void spaces, combined with the presence of two metals that alloy with lithium at different potentials, further provide a buffer against volume change. This stabilizes the structure to give NP-SbSn good cycle life (595 mAh/g after 100 cycles with 93% capacity retention). Operando transmission X-ray microscopy (TXM) showed that during cycling NP-SbSn expands by only 60% in area and then contracts back nearly to its original size with no physical disintegration. The pores shrink during lithiation as the pore walls expand into the pore space and then relax back to their initial size during delithiation with almost no degradation. Importantly, the pores remained open even in the fully lithiated state, and structures are in good physical condition after the 36th cycle. The results of this work should thus be useful for designing nanoscale structures in alloying anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

An integrated metagenomic, metabolomic and transcriptomic survey of Populus across genotypes and environments

Abstract Bridging molecular information to ecosystem-level processes would provide the capacity to understand system vulnerability and, potentially, a means for assessing ecosystem health. Here, we present an integrated dataset containing environmental and metagenomic information from plant-associated microbial communities, plant transcriptomics, plant and soil metabolomics, and soil chemistry and activity characterization measurements derived from the model tree species Populus trichocarpa . Soil, rhizosphere, root endosphere, and leaf samples were collected from 27 different P. trichocarpa genotypes grown in two different environments leading to an integrated dataset of 318 metagenomes, 98 plant transcriptomes, and 314 metabolomic profiles that are supported by diverse soil measurements. This expansive dataset will provide insights into causal linkages that relate genomic features and molecular level events to system-level properties and their environmental influences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Considerations for Distributed Edge Data Centers and Use of Building Loads to Support Large Interconnections

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning is driving unprecedented electricity demand from data centers. It is predicted that by 2030, 90% of AI workloads will be inference-based, requiring interconnection of multiple low-latency edge data centers (<20 MW) sited closer to end users - often on already constrained distribution feeders. Although individually small, these loads can aggregate to large loads per feeder, straining infrastructure, creating multi-year interconnection delays, and driving up customer costs. This paper proposes a data center-focused grid-integration framework that combines feeder hosting capacity analysis with building energy efficiency, building load flexibility, and waste heat reuse to expand effective feeder and substation headroom. Such approaches can reduce interconnection delays, lower costs for ratepayers, and accelerate AI-ready infrastructure deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2002

Computational Thermochemistry of Jet Fuels and Rocket Propellants

The design of new high-energy density molecules as candidates for jet and rocket fuels is an important goal of modern chemical thermodynamics. The NASA Glenn Research Center is home to a database of thermodynamic data for over 2000 compounds related to this goal, in the form of least-squares fits of heat capacities, enthalpies, and entropies as functions of temperature over the range of 300 - 6000 K. The chemical equilibrium with applications (CEA) program written and maintained by researchers at NASA Glenn over the last fifty years, makes use of this database for modeling the performance of potential rocket propellants. During its long history, the NASA Glenn database has been developed based on experimental results and data published in the scientific literature such as the standard JANAF tables. The recent development of efficient computational techniques based on quantum chemical methods provides an alternative source of information for expansion of such databases. For example, it is now possible to model dissociation or combustion reactions of small molecules to high accuracy using techniques such as coupled cluster theory or density functional theory. Unfortunately, the current applicability of reliable computational models is limited to relatively small molecules containing only around a dozen (non-hydrogen) atoms. We propose to extend the applicability of coupled cluster theory- often referred to as the 'gold standard' of quantum chemical methods- to molecules containing 30-50 non-hydrogen atoms. The centerpiece of this work is the concept of local correlation, in which the description of the electron interactions- known as electron correlation effects- are reduced to only their most important localized components. Such an advance has the potential to greatly expand the current reach of computational thermochemistry and thus to have a significant impact on the theoretical study of jet and rocket propellants.

Crawford, T. Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical and electrical changes in electrochemically active polyimide binders for Li-ion batteries

Polyimide binders are often used in electrodes made with silicon for lithium-ion batteries for their mechanical strength and adhesion, which help mitigate mechanical issues associated with large volumetric expansion. These binders can be electrochemically active, but it is difficult to characterize what physical and chemical changes occur due to a composite electrode with multiple components and processes at play. Here, in this work, we study electrodes consisting only of polyimide binder and conductive carbon, using scanning probe-based techniques—contact resonance, force volume, and scanning spreading resistance microscopy—along with cryo-scanning transmission electron microscopy, electron energy loss spectroscopy, and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. We show that lithium becomes trapped in the binder during cycling and results in large initial capacity losses, the formation of dendrite-like features, column-like domains of significantly increased mechanical modulus, and a slight increase in electronic resistivity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar PV Curtailment in Changing Grid and Technological Contexts: Preprint

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. At increasing levels of PV penetration situations arise where PV is curtailed, either because of local supply/demand imbalances or to maintain system flexibility. In 2018, we estimate that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. Similar to the case of wind, some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting sparsely populated solar-heavy regions to load centers.Grid policies generally seek to minimize curtailment because it is viewed as an economic and environmental loss. However, we argue that changing grid and technological contexts warrant new thinking on PV curtailment. In the grid context, as grids integrate more PV and other renewable energy generation, seeking an optimal level of accepted curtailment becomes more efficient than preventing it. In the technological context, emerging technologies such as advanced inverters and low-cost battery storage are making PV systems more flexible. With flexible PV, grid operators can use withheld PV output to provide various non-generation grid services. This withheld PV output is a form of curtailment under prevailing definitions of the term. Hence, policies that aim to minimize curtailment may undercut the ability of grid operators to fully use the emerging capabilities of flexible PV systems. We argue that the changing grid and technological contexts require a re-examination of the curtailment paradigm. We argue that PV output that is withheld to provide grid services is fundamentally different from output that goes unused in response to system constraints. As a result, we propose a more exclusive definition of curtailment as unused PV output rather than the more expansive conventional definition as any reduction in system output from its technical potential. The terminological distinction is more than a question of semantics. Facilitating grid services by withholding PV output may increase the potential value of flexible PV systems to the grid. This shift in thinking may allow grid operators and policymakers to think in terms of PV curtailment management rather than minimization. Effective curtailment management may include policies that increase PV system dispatchability, alternative PV compensation schemes that decouple generator revenue from system output, and policies to increase grid flexibility.

Chile↗
DOE OSTI2020

The cold high-pressure approach to hydrogen delivery

In view of the very expensive and wasteful nature of today's approaches to H 2 delivery, in this work we explore the possibility of transporting cold (200 K) high pressure (875 bar) H 2 in thermally insulated trailers and dispensing H 2 directly from the trailer, with the potential to eliminate station compressor, cascade, and refrigerator, leading to major reductions in station complexity, maintenance, electricity consumption, and cost, while improving functionality by enabling essentially unlimited back to back refuels, and improving safety due to reduced H 2 expansion energy at low temperature. Detailed techno-economic analysis shows promise for substantial delivery cost reductions through cold high pressure H 2 dispensed directly from the trailer. Results indicate that: (1) Terminal operations for cold high pressure H 2 delivery are $\$$0.32/kg H 2 more expensive than for 350 bar compressed gas delivery (today's lowest cost H 2 delivery technology) due to higher level of pressurization (to 1000 bar) and chilling needs (to 165 K). (2) Trailer cost drops slightly ($\$$0.73 vs. $\$$0.81/kg H 2 for a 350 bar trailer) due to increased capacity (1035 kg H 2 delivered vs. 700 kg) compensating for increased capital cost ($\$$906,900 for cold high pressure H 2 vs. $\$$634,000 for 350 bar trailer). (3) Cold hydrogen delivery presents major advantages in fueling station cost, reduced from $\$$1.27 to $\$$0.46/kg H 2 due to elimination of major system components: compressor, cascade, and chiller. (4) Total compression cost (terminal + station) drops from $\$$0.92/kg H 2 ($\$$0.32 terminal and $\$$0.60 station) for 350 bar trailers to $\$$0.55/kg H 2 (all at the terminal) for cold high pressure H 2 . (5) Elimination of small-scale station compressors is the main contributor to reduced delivery cost due to their inefficiency, capital expense, and maintenance needs. In summary, total delivery cost reduction vs. 350 bar trailer equals $\$$0.58/kg H 2 (from $\$$2.96 to 2.38/kg H 2 ), equivalent to 24% of the total delivery cost. This large cost advantage will improve the economics of H 2 vehicles facilitating the transition to a future of zero emission transportation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of the U.S. Electric Distribution System in Serving Data Center and Other Large Loads

The rapid expansion of data centers in the United States is reshaping how the electric distribution system must plan for and accommodate large load interconnections. This report evaluates the role of the distribution grid in serving these loads, from small edge facilities to hyperscale campuses. Using national datasets, utility filings, and industry studies, we assess demand growth, reliability requirements, interconnection thresholds, and infrastructure needs at substations and feeders. The analysis highlights the mismatch between fast data center development timelines and slower utility planning and construction cycles, as well as strategies such as phased energization, on-site generation, hosting capacity maps, and structured interconnection frameworks. While focused on data centers, the insights also apply to other high-density loads such as advanced manufacturing, hydrogen production, and electrified transportation. The report concludes with approaches to align planning processes, transparency tools, and regulatory frameworks so utilities can manage new large loads in ways that support a reliable and resilient grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change↗