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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Tackling Disorder in γ‐Ga 2 O 3

Abstract Ga 2 O 3 and its polymorphs are attracting increasing attention. The rich structural space of polymorphic oxide systems such as Ga 2 O 3 offers potential for electronic structure engineering, which is of particular interest for a range of applications, such as power electronics. γ‐Ga 2 O 3 presents a particular challenge across synthesis, characterization, and theory due to its inherent disorder and resulting complex structure–electronic‐structure relationship. Here, density functional theory is used in combination with a machine‐learning approach to screen nearly one million potential structures, thereby developing a robust atomistic model of the γ‐phase. Theoretical results are compared with surface and bulk sensitive soft and hard X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy, X‐ray absorption spectroscopy, spectroscopic ellipsometry, and photoluminescence excitation spectroscopy experiments representative of the occupied and unoccupied states of γ‐Ga 2 O 3 . The first onset of strong absorption at room temperature is found at 5.1 eV from spectroscopic ellipsometry, which agrees well with the excitation maximum at 5.17 eV obtained by photoluminescence excitation spectroscopy, where the latter shifts to 5.33 eV at 5 K. This work presents a leap forward in the treatment of complex, disordered oxides and is a crucial step toward exploring how their electronic structure can be understood in terms of local coordination and overall structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine‐Learning Spectral Indicators of Topology

Abstract Topological materials discovery has emerged as an important frontier in condensed matter physics. While theoretical classification frameworks have been used to identify thousands of candidate topological materials, experimental determination of materials’ topology often poses significant technical challenges. X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a widely used materials characterization technique sensitive to atoms’ local symmetry and chemical bonding, which are intimately linked to band topology by the theory of topological quantum chemistry (TQC). Moreover, as a local structural probe, XAS is known to have high quantitative agreement between experiment and calculation, suggesting that insights from computational spectra can effectively inform experiments. In this work, computed X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure (XANES) spectra of more than 10 000 inorganic materials to train a neural network (NN) classifier that predicts topological class directly from XANES signatures, achieving F 1 scores of 89% and 93% for topological and trivial classes, respectively is leveraged. Given the simplicity of the XAS setup and its compatibility with multimodal sample environments, the proposed machine‐learning‐augmented XAS topological indicator has the potential to discover broader categories of topological materials, such as non‐cleavable compounds and amorphous materials, and may further inform field‐driven phenomena in situ, such as magnetic field‐driven topological phase transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, the development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting the properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate the thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict the phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate the accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with the diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Simulation of Lithium Carbonate Reactive Vapor–Liquid Equilibria Using a Deep Potential Model

We developed a first-principles machine learning model for the reactive vapor–liquid phase behavior of molten Li 2 CO 3 . The model was trained on ab initio electronic density functional theory data using the Deep Potential (DP) methodology, and its accuracy was evaluated by comparing model predictions of density and viscosity to experimental measurements. Direct coexistence simulations with the DP model over time scales of tens of nanoseconds were used to observe equilibrium dissociation of Li 2 CO 3 into CO 2 residing primarily in the vapor phase and Li 2 O which remains dissolved in the liquid. The simulations covered a range of temperatures, overall system sizes, and vapor-to-liquid volume ratios. Results were analyzed in terms of the observed chemical composition of the liquid and vapor phases, product structure, and CO 2 partial pressures. In addition, we calculated equilibrium constants for the dissociation reaction by assuming ideal-solution behavior for the liquid. As expected on the basis of thermodynamic arguments and prior experiments for this system, the observed partial pressure of CO 2 in the gas phase depends on both the temperature and the ratio of vapor to liquid volumes, while the calculated equilibrium constants only depend on temperature. DP model predictions for the equilibrium constant of the reaction are generally consistent with the available experimental measurements. Furthermore, the present study establishes the validity of the DP methodology for the description of reactive, multiphase equilibria from first principles, with possible applications to many other systems of scientific and technological interest even in the absence of relevant experimental measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Toward Fast and Reliable Potential Energy Surfaces for Metallic Pt Clusters by Hierarchical Delta Neural Networks

Data-driven machine learning force fields (MLF) are more and more popular in atomistic simulations, and exploit machine learning methods to predict energies and forces for unknown structures based on the knowledge learned from an existing reference database. The latter usually comes from density functional theory calculations. One main drawback of MLFs is that physical laws are not incorporated in the machine learning models and instead, MLFs are designed to be very flexible to simulate complex quantum chemistry potential energy surface (PES). In general, MLFs have poor transferability, and hence a very large trainset is required to span all the target feature space to get a reliable MLF. This procedure becomes more troublesome when the PES is complicated, with a large number of degrees of freedom, in which building a large database is inevitable and very expensive, especially when accurate but costly exchange-correlation functionals have to be used. In this manuscript, we exploit a high dimensional neural network potential (HDNNP) on Pt clusters of size 6 to 20 as one example. Furthermore, our standard level of energy calculation is DFT GGA (PBE) using a plane wave basis set. We introduce an approximate but fast level with the PBE functional and a minimal atomic orbital basis set, then a more accurate but expensive level, using a hybrid functional or non-local vdw functional and a plane wave basis set, is reliably predicted by learning the difference with HDNNP. Findings show that such a differential approach (named ΔHDNNP) can deliver very accurate predictions (error < 10 meV/atom) in reference to converged basis set energies as well as more accurate but expensive xc functional. The overall speedup can be as large as 900 for 20 atom Pt cluster. More importantly, ΔHDNNP shows much better transferability due to the intrinsic smoothness of delta potential energy surface, and accordingly one can use much smaller trainset data to obtain better accuracy than the conventional HDNNP. A multi-layer ΔHDNNP is thus proposed to obtain very accurate predictions versus expensive non-local vdW functional calculations in which the required trainset is further reduced. The approach can be easily generalized to any other machine learning methods and opens a path to study the structure and dynamics of Pt clusters and nanoparticles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis from Mesoscale Convective Systems using Machine Learning

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is a problem of great significance in climate and weather research. Although various environmental conditions necessary for TC genesis have been recognized for a long time, prediction of TC genesis remains a challenge due to complex and stochastic processes involved during TC genesis. Different from traditional statistical and dynamical modeling of TC genesis, in this research, a machine learning framework is developed to determine whether a mesoscale convective system (MCS) would evolve into a tropical cyclone. The machine learning models 1) are built upon a number of essential environmental predictors associated with MCS/TC, 2) predict whether MCSs can become TCs at different lead times, 3) provide information about the relative importance of each predictor, which can be conducive to discovering new aspects of TC genesis. The results indicate that the machine learning classifier, AdaBoost, is able to achieve a 97.2% F1-score accuracy in predicting TC genesis over the entire tropics at a 6-hour lead time using a comprehensive set of environmental predictors. A robust performance can still be attained when the lead time is extended to 12 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours, and when this machine learning classifier is separately applied to the North Atlantic Ocean and the Western North Pacific Ocean. In contrast, the conventional approach based on genesis potential index can only have no more than 80% F1-score accuracy. Moreover, the machine learning classifier suggests that the low-level vorticity and genesis potential index are the most important predictors to TC genesis, which is consistent with previous discoveries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been proposed; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. This paper addresses this gap by designing and developing a controller-hardware-in-the-loop framework to evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. Simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional reference-control grouping-based approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Enabled Atomistic Study of the Micro-Cold Spray Process [Poster]

Micro-cold spray is typically conducted by impacting 200-2000 nm particles at velocities of ~500 m/s. Molecular dynamics simulations have been used to study micro cold spray, but the particles that can be simulated using conventional potentials are much smaller than those used experimentally. The viewgraphs taken from molecular dynamics simulations and shown below are cross-sections of a 50 nm Ta particle with a 3 nm oxide layer impacting at 500 m/s using a machine learning enabled DeePMD potential. Using more expensive reactive interatomic potentials, the previous largest particle size for a metal/oxide impact simulation was 12 nm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2018

Machine learning at the energy and intensity frontiers of particle physics

Our knowledge of the fundamental particles of nature and their interactions is summarized by the standard model of particle physics. Advancing our understanding in this field has required experiments that operate at ever higher energies and intensities, which produce extremely large and information-rich data samples. The use of machine-learning techniques is revolutionizing how we interpret these data samples, greatly increasing the discovery potential of present and future experiments. Here we summarize the challenges and opportunities that come with the use of machine learning at the frontiers of particle physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Geothermal Artificial Intelligence for geothermal exploration

Exploration of geothermal resources involves analysis and management of a large number of uncertainties, which makes investment and operations decisions challenging. Remote Sensing (RS), Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have potential in managing the challenges of geothermal exploration. In this paper, we present a methodology that integrates RS, ML and AI to create an initial assessment of geothermal potential, by resorting to known indicators of geothermal areas namely mineral markers, surface temperature, faults and deformation. We demonstrated the implementation of the method in two sites (Brady and Desert Peak geothermal sites) that are close to each other but have different characteristics (Brady having clear surface manifestations and Desert Peak being a blind site). Here, we processed various satellite images and geospatial data for mineral markers, temperature, faults and deformation and then implemented ML methods to obtain pattern of surface manifestation of geothermal sites. We developed an AI that uses patterns from surface manifestations to predict geothermal potential of each pixel. We tested the Geothermal AI using independent data sets obtaining accuracy of 92-95%; also tested the Geothermal AI trained on one site by executing it for the other site to predict the geothermal / non-geothermal delineation, the Geothermal AI performed quite well in prediction with 72-76% accuracy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

GIS Resource Compilation Map Package - Applications of Machine Learning Techniques to Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis in the Great Basin Region, Nevada

This submission contains an ESRI map package (.mpk) with an embedded geodatabase for GIS resources used or derived in the Nevada Machine Learning project, meant to accompany the final report. The package includes layer descriptions, layer grouping, and symbology. Layer groups include: new/revised datasets (paleo-geothermal features, geochemistry, geophysics, heat flow, slip and dilation, potential structures, geothermal power plants, positive and negative test sites), machine learning model input grids, machine learning models (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), Principal Component Analysis (PCA/PCAk), Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF/NMFk) - supervised and unsupervised), original NV Play Fairway data and models, and NV cultural/reference data. See layer descriptions for additional metadata. Smaller GIS resource packages (by category) can be found in the related datasets section of this submission. A submission linking the full codebase for generating machine learning output models is available through the "Related Datasets" link on this page, and contains results beyond the top picks present in this compilation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Failure prediction using machine learning in a virtualised HPC system and application

Failure is an increasingly important issue in high performance computing and cloud systems. As large-scale systems continue to grow in scale and complexity, mitigating the impact of failure and providing accurate predictions with sufficient lead time remains a challenging research problem. Traditional existing fault-tolerance strategies such as regular check-pointing and replication are not adequate because of the emerging complexities of high performance computing systems. This necessitates the importance of having an effective as well as proactive failure management approach in place aimed at minimizing the effect of failure within the system. With the advent of machine learning techniques, the ability to learn from past information to predict future pattern of behaviours makes it possible to predict potential system failure more accurately. Thus, in this paper, we explore the predictive abilities of machine learning by applying a number of algorithms to improve the accuracy of failure prediction. We have developed a failure prediction model using time series and machine learning, and performed comparison based tests on the prediction accuracy. The primary algorithms we considered are the support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), classification and regression trees (CART) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Experimental results indicates that the average prediction accuracy of our model using SVM when predicting failure is 90% accurate and effective compared to other algorithms. This finding implies that our method can effectively predict all possible future system and application failures within the system.

Mohammed, Bashir↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sieving Hydrogen Isotopes via Machine Learning Assisted Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) of High‐Quality Monolayer Hexagonal Boron Nitride (h‐BN) on Iron Foils

Atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) ceramics, such as monolayer hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN), present potential for disruptive advances in separations. However, sub-atomic scale separation of hydrogen isotopes (H + /D + ) require near pristine 2D material membranes, and scalable synthesis of such high-quality h-BN comparable to mechanically exfoliated crystals remains a significant challenge. Here, we report a scalable Fe-catalyzed chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process for bottom-up synthesis of large-area, high-quality monolayer h-BN films, overcoming key limitations of conventional ammonia-based routes. By leveraging mechanistic insights and higher CVD temperatures, we suppress multilayer formation and achieve uniform monolayer h-BN coverage on commercially available Fe foils. Machine learning enables systematic exploration of the complex, multi-dimensional CVD parameter space (growth time, temperature, precursor temperature, multilayer faction, coverage), providing data-driven approaches to visualize and identify process regimes facilitating predominantly monolayer h-BN growth with minimal secondary nuclei/ad-layers. The optimized Fe-catalyzed CVD h-BN membranes show high-quality as observed by proton/deuteron (H + /D + ) selectivity ≈8.45, approaching the highest quality benchmark of mechanically exfoliated h-BN (H + /D + selectivity ≈10) as well as significantly outperforming Cu-catalyzed CVD h-BN membranes (H + /D + selectivity ≈3.62, control selectivity ≈1.7). Our work provides a scalable cost-effective route for high-quality monolayer h-BN synthesis for sub-atomic scale separations (H + /D + ) and demonstrates the broader potential of machine learning-guided optimization of CVD for advancing synthesis of 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models

This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗