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At least 73 records · Page 4

Rewriting the Landform History of One of Africa's Three Largest Basins

The Kalahari Basin in southern Africa - one of the largest basins in Africa, along with the Congo and Chad basins - has attracted attention since David Livingstone traveled through the area in the 1840s. It is a semiarid desert with a large freshwater swampland known as the Okavango Swamp (150 km radius). This prominent megafan (a fan with radii >100 km), with its fingers of dark green forests projecting into the dun colors of the dunes of the Kalahari semi-desert, has been well photographed by astronauts over the years. The study area in the northern Kalahari basin is centered on the Okavango megafan of northwest Botswana, whose swampland has become well known as an African wildlife preserve of importance to biology and tourism alike. The Okavango River is unusual because it has deposited not one but two megafans along its course: the Okavango megafan and the Cubango megafan. The Okavango megafan is one of only three well-known megafans in Africa. Megafans on Earth were once thought to be rare, but recent research has documented 68 in Africa alone. Eleven megafans, plus three more candidates, have been documented in the area immediately surrounding the Okavango feature. These 11 megafans occupy the flattest and smoothest terrains adjacent to the neighboring upland and stand out as the darkest areas in the roughness map of the area. Megafan terrains occupy at least 200,000 sq km of the study area. The roughness map shown is based on an algorithm used first on Mars to quantify topographic roughness. Research of Earth's flattest terrains is just beginning with the aid of such maps, and it appears that these terrains are analogous to the flattest regions of Mars. Implications: 1. The variability in depositional style in each subbasin may apply Africa-wide: rift megafan length is dominated by rift width, whereas Owambo subbasin megafans are probably controlled by upland basin size; Zambezi subbasin megafans appear more like foreland basin types, with the position of the trunk river controlling size. 2. These perspectives were successfully applied to identify the largest megafan in the group (Cubango), a fan that was sufficiently overprinted by dunes and dry lakelets not to be detectable remotely. Such undertsanding can probably be applied on Mars, where Earth experience suggests megafans ought to exist. 3. Sweep angles of rivers on megafans drastically change the hydrology in some subbasins: when the Cubango and Kunene rivers were oriented to the Etosha Pan, it was probably a permanent water body. Now that the rivers are oriented away from the basin, 93 percent of the discharge area from the pan's northerly (main) source area is gone. 4. Biotic contact between major river systems was probably controlled by megafans situated on divides: various fish species that originated in the Congo basin are now found in the Upper Zambezi R., and vice versa, apparently because of river switching behavior on the Cassai megafan that has mediated migrations both to the south and the north.

Wilkinson, Justin↗

Dissociative Ionization of Aromatic and Heterocyclic Molecules

Space radiation poses a major health hazard to humans in space flight. The high-energy charged particles in space radiation ranging from protons to high atomic number, high-energy (HZE) particles, and the secondary species they produce, attack DNA, cells, and tissues. Of the potential hazards, long-term health effects such as carcinogenesis are likely linked to the DNA lesions caused by secondary electrons in the 1 - 30 eV range. Dissociative ionization (DI) is one of the electron collision processes that can damage the DNA, either directly by causing a DNA lesion, or indirectly by producing radicals and cations that attack the DNA. To understand this process, we have developed a theoretical model for DI. Our model makes use of the fact that electron motion is much faster than nuclear motion and assumes DI proceeds through a two-step process. The first step is electron-impact ionization resulting in a particular state of the molecular ion in the geometry of the neutral molecule. In the second step the ion undergoes unimolecular dissociation. Thus the DI cross section sigma(sup DI)(sub a) for channel a is given by sigma(sup DI)(sub a) = sigma(sup I)(sub a) P(sub D) with sigma(sup I)(sub a) the ionization cross section of channel a and P(sub D) the dissociation probability. This model has been applied to study the DI of H2O, NH3, and CH4, with results in good agreement with experiment. The ionization cross section sigma(sup I)(sub a) was calculated using the improved binary encounter-dipole model and the unimolecular dissociation probability P(sub D) obtained by following the minimum energy path determined by the gradients and Hessians of the electronic energy with respect to the nuclear coordinates of the ion. This model is used to study the DI from the low-lying channels of benzene and pyridine to understand the different product formation in aromatic and heterocyclic molecules. DI study of the DNA base thymine is underway. Solvent effects will also be discussed.

Huo, Winifred M.↗

Inelastic scattering in atom-diatomic molecule collisions. I - Rotational transitions in the sudden approximation

The impact parameter method and the sudden approximation are applied to determine the total probability of inelastic rotational transitions arising from a collision of an atom and a homonuclear diatomic molecule at large impact parameters. An analytical approximation to this probability is found for conditions where the electron exchange or overlap forces dominate the scattering. An approximate upper bound to the range of impact parameters for which rotational scattering can be important is determined. In addition, an estimate of the total inelastic cross section is found at conditions for which a statistical model describes the scattering well. The results of this analysis are applied to Ar-O2 collisions and may be readily applied to other combinations of atoms and molecules.

Stallcop, J. R.↗

Risk of Bone Fracture due to Spaceflight-induced Changes to Bone

The Human Research Program (HRP) is taking a biomechanical approach to assessing subsequent fracture risk in active astronauts as a consequence of spaceflight exposure. Triennial testing of active and retired astronauts continues as Space Medicine monitors for a premature diagnosis of primary osteoporosis, which is associated with age-related bone loss and skeletal fragility. This updated 2023 Fracture Evidence Report has expanded the description of skeletal changes to capture the full effects of spaceflight on bone: • Recent analysis of fractures from health records of the full astronaut cohort, suggests an increased incidence rate of hip and spine fractures in astronauts following longer spaceflight duration flights compared to incident rates found in shorter duration flights. • Routine preflight-to-postflight surveillance by DXA (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) does not provide the full detection of loss and recovery in the long-duration (LD) astronaut nor the full recovery of hip trabecular bone. • The inclusion of hip quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in flight studies delineates effects of spaceflight, of countermeasures, and of post-flight recovery on cortical and trabecular bone parameters—some of which are verified predictors of hip fracture in the aged. • QCT detects and compares the distinct countermeasure effects of the pharmaceutical alendronate and of resistive exercise (on the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, ARED) in specific cortical and trabecular bone sub-regions during spaceflight. • A published comparison of QCT-determined loss rates of hip trabecular bone in LD astronauts compared to terrestrial cohorts suggest that accelerated loss rates in trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) during spaceflight might be analogous to skeletal effects of accelerated loss rates in females due to menopause, potentially leading to disruptions in trabecular microarchitecture. • A dataset of finite element (FE) estimates of hip bone strength in aging terrestrial cohorts (spanning astronaut age-range) provides comparative context for changes in the FE of hip bone strength in LD astronauts, including comparison (force unit of newton) to percentiles (50th, 75th, and 100th) of sex-matched aged humans with hip fractures. • Risk of fracture, due to the mechanical overloading of bones, is being updated with IMPACT, the next-generation tool suite for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for exploration missions being created by the Exploration and Medical Capability Element (ExMC) at NASA. IMPACT is currently in development and will not be included in this 2024 update. The risk for fracture necessitates understanding the relationship between applied loads to bone and the biomechanical competence of bone. The Risk for Early Onset Osteoporosis focuses on the weakened condition of bone (including development of new technologies, measurements of novel skeletal attributes, translation of multiple measures to an index of bone fragility, and interpretations of data used to reflect a weakened bone), while the Risk for Fracture assesses factors that influence the probability an astronaut would encounter applied loads exceeding the biomechanical competence of bones, resulting in fracture. This Evidence Report combines the research gaps and tasks associated with both risks.

Fracture↗

Stopping power of neutrinos and antineutrinos in polymers

The Weinberg-Salam model is applied to quantify the energy loss of antineutrinos and neutrinos encountering polymers. The scattering cross-sectional energy due to encounters with electrons is calculated, along with the probability that an antineutrino will remain the same particle. The energy loss reaches a maximum, i.e., stopping occurs, when the probability is unity. The technique is applied to study the energy losses in kapton, a solid organic insulator used for antennas on spacecraft exposed to solar neutrinos with energies ranging from 0.5-10 MeV. The energy loss is found to be negligible.

Rustgi, M. L.↗

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗

Intent Modeling and Intent Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents probabilistic intent models for two typical vehicles in ETM operational environment. Several methods, including analytical methods for approximated solutions and a numerical method for exact solution, are presented and applied to compute the intent conflict probability for ETM operations. A comparison of these methods will be conducted in the final paper. Furthermore, simulations will be performed to verify the probabilistic intent model and verify the results of intent conflict probability from different methods.

Operational intent↗

Modeling transient faults in TMR computer systems

In this paper we report the development of a technique for modeling transient faults in redundant computer systems. Transient faults are characterized by their arrival rate and their duration. Fault detection, transient recovery, and the effect of permanent faults are included. A fault occurrence/recovery status state diagram is drawn to illustrate the operational status of the system while undergoing faults. The state diagram is used to formulate the equations for the mission failure probability. The techniques are then applied to a triple modular redundant computer system.

Merryman, P. M.↗

Multiplicity dependence of transverse momentum in hadronic collisions

The process of secondary-particle emission in hadron-hadron collisions is analytically studied using a simple model of hadron structure. The model neglects the 'size' of the hadron constituents, considering a hadron as a continuous distribution of matter according to a step function of radius R. A version of the eikonal approximation is applied to derive the relative probability for interaction and emission of secondaries when the impact parameter b is smaller than 2R. On the basis of these assumptions, and using the uncertainty relation, an empirical parameterization is obtained for the dependence of the transverse momentum of charged secondaries on their multiplicity in the case of high-energy proton-proton collisions. Comparison with experimental data at 28 GeV/c yields agreement to within about 3%. The analysis shows that at a fixed beam momentum, the transverse momentum decreases with increasing multiplicity, and that for a given multiplicity, the transverse momentum exhibits a slow increase with beam momentum.

Saint Amand, J.↗

FUNSTAT and statistical image representations

General ideas of functional statistical inference analysis of one sample and two samples, univariate and bivariate are outlined. ONESAM program is applied to analyze the univariate probability distributions of multi-spectral image data.

Parzen, E.↗

Bayesian classification of polarimetric SAR images using adaptive a priori probabilities

The problem of classifying earth terrain by observed polarimetric scattering properties is tackled with an iterative Bayesian scheme using a priori probabilities adaptively. The first classification is based on the use of fixed and not necessarily equal a priori probabilities, and successive iterations change the a priori probabilities adaptively. The approach is applied to an SAR image in which a single water body covers 10 percent of the image area. The classification accuracy for ocean, urban, vegetated, and total area increase, and the percentage of reclassified pixels decreases greatly as the iteration number increases. The iterative scheme is found to improve the a posteriori classification accuracy of maximum likelihood classifiers by iteratively using the local homogeneity in polarimetric SAR images. A few iterations can improve the classification accuracy significantly without sacrificing key high-frequency detail or edges in the image.

Van Zyl, J. J.↗

Theoretical temperature-dependent branching ratios and laser thresholds of the 3F4 to 3H6 levels of Tm(3+) in ten garnets

The calculated energy levels, the branching ratios, and the estimated thresholds for thulium operating on the 3F4 to 3H6 transitions are reported. Garnet materials with the general formula A3B2C3O12 are evaluated. Calculations are performed for the A side under the assumption of D2 symmetry. X-ray data available in the literature are used to evaluate the crystal-field components, A sub nm. Even-n components are employed to calculate the crystal-field splittings within the manifold. Thermal occupation factors are determined in a straightforward manner using a Boltzmann distribution for the respective manifolds. Odd-n components are applied to calculate the transition probabilities for electric field transitions. It is determined that the magnetic dipole contributions to the transition probability are comparable to the electric dipole contributions in some cases. Thresholds as a function of the density of thulium atoms are calculated.

Filer, Elizabeth D.↗

Analytical investigation of turbines with adjustable stator blades and effect of these turbines on jet-engine performance

Adjustable-stator turbines are applied to turbojet engines and probable performance is compared with conventional engines with and without variable-area exhaust nozzles. Variation in stator-exit angle and exhaust area was not excessive for wide ranges of engine output. Variation in turbine efficiency for contemporary turbines equipped with adjustable stators was small. Improvements from 4.5 to 17 percent in over-all engine specific fuel consumption over conventional engines and from 2 to 8.5 percent over engines equipped with only adjustable-area exhaust nozzles were obtained at 60-percent rated power with adjustable-stator turbines and variable-area exhaust nozzles. The improvements depend on design parameters.

ENGINE TYPES, COMPARISON↗

Preston Probe Calibrations at High Reynolds Number

The overall goal of the research effort is to study the performance of two Preston probes designed by NASA Langley Research Center across an unprecedented range of Reynolds number (based on friction velocity and probe diameter), and perform an accurate calibration over the same Reynolds number range. Using the Superpipe facility in Princeton, two rounds of experiments were performed. In each round of experiments for each Reynolds number, the pressure gradient, static pressure from the Preston probes and the total pressure from the Preston probes were measured. In the first round, 3 Preston probes having outer diameters of 0.058 inches, 0.083 inches and 0.203 inches were tested over a large range of pipe Reynolds numbers. Two data reduction methods were employed: first, the static pressure measured on the Preston probe was used to calculate P (modified Preston probe configuration), and secondly, the static pressure measured at the reference pressure tap was used to calculate P (un-modified Preston probe configuration). For both methods, the static pressure was adjusted to correspond with the static pressure at the Preston probe tip using the pressure gradient. The measurements for Preston probes with diameters of 0.058 inches, and 0.083 inches respectively were performed in the test pipe before it was polished a second time. Therefore, the measurements at high pipe Reynolds numbers may have been affected by roughness. In the second round of experiments the 0.058 inches and 0.083 inches diameter, un-modified probes were tested after the pipe was polished and prepared to ensure that the surface was smooth. The average velocity was estimated by assuming that the connection between the centerline velocity and the average velocity was known, and by using a Pitot tube to measure the centerline velocity. A preliminary error estimate suggests that it is possible to introduce a 1% to 2% error in estimating the average velocity using this approach. The evidence on the errors attending the second data set is somewhat circumstantial, and the measurements have not been repeated using a better approach, it seems probable that the correlation given applies to un-modified Preston probes over the range 6.4 less than x* less than 11.3.

Smits, Alexander J.↗

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) has been synoptically mapped via an algorithm that rejects small-scale undersampled variance, which is intrinsic to asymptotic measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction (eta)(sub c) (T < than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in moist air from lower levels. Histograms of UTH and eta(sub c) have been applied to construct the joint probability density function, which quantifies the relationship between these properties. The expected value of UTH in convective regions is strongly correlated to the expected value of eta(sub c). In ensembles of asymptotic samples, the correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] exceeds 0.80. As these expectations reflect the most likely values, the strong correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] indicates that the large-scale organization of UTH is strongly shaped by convective pumping of moisture from lower levels. The same relationship holds for unsteady fields - even though, instantaneously, those fields are comprised almost entirely of small-scale convective structure. The spatial autocorrelation of UTH, constructed at high resolution from overpass data along ascending and descending tracks of the orbit, is limited to only a couple of degrees in the horizontal. This mirrors the spatial autocorrelation of eta(sub c), which likewise operates coherently on short scales. The short correlation scale of UTH, which reflects the scale of individual convective systems, is comparable to the spacing of retrievals from MLS. These scales are undersampled in the asynoptic measurements. Despite their prevalence, the mapping algorithm described above successfully recovers synoptic behavior operating coherently on large scales. It reveals eastward migration of anomalous UTH from the Indian ocean to the central Pacific, in association with the modulation of convection by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Predictive Modeling to Assess and Address Challenges and Limitations Associated with Clinical Care and Decision Support in Deep Space

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for assessing and integrating the risk of failure in a multivariate system. While it is often applied by engineers designing complex machines, it could also be applied to humans to assess the probability of a health “failure” treating diseases as the multiple “variables” and the human as the “complex machine.” The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was developed to apply PRA to assess medical risk for exploration spaceflight and inform the design of medical systems for space flight. The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault tree probabilistic techniques to classify risk in the space flight environment by leveraging the inherent knowledge of complex space flight system design and testing to quantify risk. However, in harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of “How do we balance astronaut health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on exploration space missions?” remains a profoundly challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the Human Research Program’s efforts to represent space fight human health and performance risks quantitatively.

L Mcintyre↗

Applicability of NASA contract quality management and failure mode effect analysis procedures to the USGS Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas lease management program

An approach that might be used for determining the applicability of NASA management techniques to benefit almost any type of down-to-earth enterprise is presented. A study was made to determine the following: (1) the practicality of adopting NASA contractual quality management techniques to the U.S. Geological Survey Outer Continental Shelf lease management function; (2) the applicability of failure mode effects analysis to the drilling, production, and delivery systems in use offshore; (3) the impact on industrial offshore operations and onshore management operations required to apply recommended NASA techniques; and (4) the probable changes required in laws or regulations in order to implement recommendations. Several management activities that have been applied to space programs are identified, and their institution for improved management of offshore and onshore oil and gas operations is recommended.

Dyer, M. K.↗

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the lightning probability forecast equations developed in Phase I. In the time since the Phase I equations were developed, new ideas regarding certain predictors were formulated and a desire to make the tool more automated was expressed by 45 WS forecasters. Five modifications were made to the data: 1) increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, 2) modified the valid area to match the lighting warning areas, 3) added the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding to the other soundings in determining the flow regime, 4) used a different smoothing function for the daily climatology, and 5) determined the optimal relative humidity (RH) layer to use as a predictor. The new equations outperformed the Phase I equations in several tests, and improved the skill of the forecast over the Phase I equations by 8%. A graphical user interface (GUI) was created in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that gathers the predictor values for the equations automatically. The GUI was transitioned to operations in May 2007 for the 2007 warm season.

Lambert, Winifred↗