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The Center for Astrophysics in Antarctica

Nowhere on Earth are the infrared skies clearer, darker, or more stable than on the high Antarctic Plateau. At some wavelengths, Antarctic telescopes may be more than one to two orders of magnitude more efficient than at other sites. However, exploiting these advantages requires first addressing the formidable practical difficulties of working in the remote and frigid polar environment. This was the motivation for the Center for Astrophysical Research in Antarctica (CARA), one of twenty-five National Science Foundation Science and Technology Centers. At its inception, the Center organized its research into four projects. Three - AST/RO, COBRA, and SPIREX - address key problems in star formation, evolution of galaxies, and the distribution of matter in the early universe. They feature surveys which can be conducted effectively with moderate-size telescopes operated in a highly automated mode. They also explore the potential of the Antarctic Plateau for a broad range of astrophysical research over a spectral range extending from the near-infrared to millimeter wavelengths. A fourth, ATP, was created to obtain quantitative data on the qualities of the South Pole site and to plan for future scientific projects. During the next five years, AST/RO, COBRA, and SPIREX will become operational, and the Center will begin to build a second generation of telescopes which can address a broader range of problems and accommodate a larger community of users.

Pernic, Robert J.↗

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

Ghrist, Richard↗

International Earth Science Constellations (ESC) Introduction

This presentation will discuss NASA HQ perspective, current state of the mission, Landsat 7 and Terra exit plans, long term plans for all mission, CARA updates, Spring 2016 IAM series plans and current status, CCS future release plans, and results of covariance calculation meetings.

Afternoon Constellation↗

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

assessment↗

Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

The Keck Interferometer

The Keck Interferometer is being developed by JPL and CARA as one of the ground-based components of NASA's Origins Program. The interferometer will combine the two 10-m Keck telescopes with four proposed 1.8-m outrigger telescopes located at the periphery of the Keck site on Mauna Kea.

optical↗

Decision Support Tool for Risk Assessment & Maneuver Planning in Collision Avoidance

As the quantity of orbital debris continues to grow, so too does the rate of conjunction messages that suggest possible collisions between high value payloads and debris. The abundance of these conjunction messages, and eventual misses, has led to a culture of ignored alerts, and an increase in satellite operation costs as a result of the frequent need to plan resources for maneuver planning and execution. The loss of “trust” in conjunction alerts is due to the poorly characterized evolution in probability of collision (Pc) as time approaches the time of closest approach (TCA) between two objects, as well as the interpretation of Pc in the context of maneuver planning. To address these problems, and in collaboration with the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program, the Industrial Sciences Group has developed a novel Maneuver Decision Support System (MDSS) to assist satellite operations in conjunction assessment and Maneuver planning. It provides a meaningful and intuitive Urgency metric for actionable maneuver decisions, based on the physical dynamics of conjunctions. It is based on a forecast of the evolution of Pc over time and represents an advance over current methods that are in use for satellite conjunction monitoring and planning. The result is to give satellite operators a validated decision support systems to plan for maneuver execution or mitigation or monitoring up to 3 days before TCA.

Decision Support Tool↗

Conjunction Assessment and Deconfliction Paradigm for Co-Located Satellite Constellations With on-Spacecraft “Autonomous” Flight Dynamics Control

Satellite constellations that employ on-spacecraft flight dynamics and conjunction assessment (CA) approaches face particular challenges. First, they must arrange to obtain and upload to the constellation satellite close approach information, such as Conjunction Data Messages, so that their on-board systems will have the data they need to make informed CA decisions. Second, given current latencies in obtaining CA screening information, such systems often cannot obtain dedicated screenings of their proposed maneuvers before they are executed. Third, they usually cannot engage in real time with owner/operators (O/Os) with whom they may come into conjunction, relying instead on pre-arranged courses of action that may or may not fit a given situation well. Despite these difficulties, it is nonetheless possible, as operators such as SpaceX have demonstrated, to operate safely using on-board CA calculations, in the presence of a largely collaborative operating environment. The situation breaks down, however, when two constellations that operate with such a paradigm are placed in the same orbital region and will experience conjunctions with each other. Each may have a vague idea of where the other’s satellites are, or perhaps even a somewhat precise idea if they exchange O/O ephemerides, but neither will know the other’s more immediate maneuver intentions, especially for situations in which they are in a high-risk conjunction with each other and a mitigation maneuver is required. As there is no formalized way for these automated systems to ascertain each other’s intentions for this type of conjunction, it is quite possible that each spacecraft may choose a maneuver that results in the two objects’ colliding. An opportunity to develop a solution to this problem was presented by the NASA “Starling” project, a small experimental constellation developed to demonstrate autonomous satellite control and constellation reconfiguration and for which a launch was obtained that, serendipitously, will place this constellation close to the SpaceX Starlink constellation. Because the NASA constellation is experimental, an extended mission part of the mission has been negotiated to implement and test mechanisms for resolving the problem of co-located constellations with on-board flight dynamics control. For the last eighteen months, a consortium among NASA Ames (the Starling satellite providers), NASA CARA (the Agency organization responsible for conjunction assessment), Space X, and the Department of Commerce (in observer status) has met regularly to assemble a concept of operations for a robust solution to this problem and has developed a prototype ground node that will serve as a needed CA screening and information dispensary. The approach and methods, as well as the active employment of the developed ground node, will be tested both in simulation before actual use and then in actual spacecraft operations, which are anticipated to begin in January 2024. This paper will describe the co-located autonomously-controlled constellation problem and the developed solution in detail, outlining what ground node (i.e., government) infrastructure and features are required, what particular capabilities are needed by the constellations themselves in order to make use of this deconfliction paradigm, and the migration path forward to allow such a capability set to be incorporated by the Department of Commerce’s space traffic coordination system.

Conjunction Assessment↗

OSIRIS-REx Conjunction Screenings: Earth Gravity Assist and Earth Return Analysis and Results

The NASA OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission performed an Earth gravity assist on September 22, 2017, and returned to Earth to drop off the sample on September 24, 2023. In each case, the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team screened the OSIRIS-REx trajectories against the satellite catalog in search of high-risk close approaches. This paper describes the preparation for collision avoidance and screening results, along with lessons learned, providing a baseline for support of future missions in this category, particularly as space traffic around the Earth and in cis-lunar space continues to rapidly expand.

Dolan E. Highsmith↗

OSIRIS-REx Conjunction Screenings: Earth Gravity Assist and Earth Return Analysis and Results

The NASA OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission performed an Earth gravity assist on September 22, 2017, and returned to Earth to drop off the sample on September 24, 2023. In each case, the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team screened the OSIRIS-REx trajectories against the satellite catalog in search of high-risk close approaches. This paper describes the preparation for collision avoidance and screening results, along with lessons learned, providing a baseline for support of future missions in this category, particularly as space traffic around the Earth and in cis-lunar space continues to rapidly expand.

Dolan Highsmith↗

Welding Many Thin Metal Layers

Electron-beam welding yields reliable, leakproof joints. Welding bands (also called "doublers") sandwiched between layers welded to increase final weld-section thickness. New technique ensures repeatable leakproof assemblies.

Hartwell, B. O.↗

The HAMMER: High altitude multiple mission environmental researcher

At the equator, the ozone layer ranges from 65,000 to 130,000+ feet which is beyond the capabilities of the ER-2, NASA's current high altitude reconnaissance aircraft. The Universities Space Research Association, in cooperation with NASA, is sponsoring an undergraduate program which is geared to designing an aircraft that can study the ozone layer at the equator. This aircraft must be able to satisfy four mission profiles. Mission one is a polar mission which ranges from Chile to the South Pole and back to Chile, a total range of 6000 n. mi. at 100,000 feet with a 2500 lb. payload. The second mission is also a polar mission with a decreased altitude of 70,000 feet and an increased payload of 4000 lb. For the third mission, the aircraft will take-off at NASA Ames, cruise at 100,000 feet carrying a 2500 lb. payload, and land in Puerto Montt, Chile. The final mission requires the aircraft to take-off at NASA Ames, cruise at 100,000 feet with a 1000 lb. payload, make an excursion to 120,000 feet, and land at Howard AFB, Panama. All three missions require that a subsonic Mach number is maintained due to constraints imposed by the air sampling equipment. The aircraft need not be manned for all four missions. Three aircraft configurations were determined to be the most suitable for meeting the above requirements. The performance of each configuration is analyzed to investigate the feasibility of the project requirements. In the event that a requirement can not be obtained within the given constraints, recommendations for proposal modifications are given.

Hayashi, Darren↗

Natural versus anthropogenic factors affecting low-level cloud albedo over the North Atlantic

Cloud albedo plays a key role in regulating earth's climate. Cloud albedo depends on column-integrated liquid water content and the density of cloud condensation nuclei, which consists primarily of submicrometer-sized aerosol sulfate particles. A comparison of two independent satellite data sets suggests that, although anthropogenic sulfate emissions may enhance cloud albedo immediately adjacent to the east coast of the United States, over the central North Atlantic Ocean the variability in albedo can be largely accounted for by natural marine and atmospheric processes that probably have remained relatively constant since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Falkowski, Paul G.↗

The NASA HRMS educational outreach program - Searching for extraterrestrial intelligence while developing extraintelligent terrestrials

Students, young and old, find extraterrestrial life one of the most intriguing of all science topics. A curriculum development project co-funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA, and administered by the SETI Institute, is underway to develop and test third through ninth grade science lessons that draw upon this fascination to focus student interest on science and mathematics. Individual lessons are designed by teachers and curriculum developers, tested in classrooms, revised and re-tested prior to distribution. A series of guides, each containing 10 to 15 lessons, will be finished by late summer 1994.

Coulter, Gary R.↗