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2015 Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School Research Reports

The fifth Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School was held June 1st - July 24th, 2015, at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). With renewed support from the Institute of Geophysics, Planetary Physics, and Signatures (IGPPS) and additional support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, we hosted a new class of five students from various U.S. and foreign research institutions. The summer school curriculum includes a series of structured lectures as well as mentored research and practicum opportunities. Lecture topics including general and specialized topics in the field of space weather were given by a number of researchers affiliated with LANL. Students were given the opportunity to engage in research projects through a mentored practicum experience. Each student works with one or more LANL-affiliated mentors to execute a collaborative research project, typically linked with a larger ongoing research effort at LANL and/or the student’s PhD thesis research. This model provides a valuable learning experience for the student while developing the opportunity for future collaboration. This report includes a summary of the research efforts fostered and facilitated by the Space Weather Summer School. These reports should be viewed as work-in-progress as the short session typically only offers sufficient time for preliminary results. At the close of the summer school session, students present a summary of their research efforts. Titles of the papers included in this report are as follows: Full particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of whistler wave generation, Hybrid simulations of the right-hand ion cyclotron anisotropy instability in a sub-Alfvénic plasma flow, A statistical ensemble for solar wind measurements, Observations and models of substorm injection dispersion patterns, Heavy ion effects on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: hybrid study, Simulating plasmaspheric electron densities with a two-component electric field model, Ion and electron heating by whistler turbulence: parametric studies via particle-in-cell simulation, and The statistics of relativistic electron pitch angle distribution in the Earth’s radiation belt based on the Van Allen Probes measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Highlights of NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office In Situ and Laboratory Measurements

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) maintains various returned spacecraft materials, capabilities, and facilities used for in situ and laboratory measurements that directly support orbital debris environmental models. In situ measurements include the analysis of exposed and returned hardware surfaces. These surfaces serve as passive sensors for the small-sized micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) flux below the sensitivity of ground-based radar and optical sensors. Various instruments and techniques are used to determine the size and depth of selected impact features, and – if feasible – the composition of the projectile material. Analysis of the impactor residues enables the differentiation of MM and OD for debris below 1 mm to support modeling the OD environment. In addition, projectiles identified as OD can be further differentiated in low-, medium-, and high- density impactors based on chemical analyses. In addition to in situ measurements, the ODPO has also worked in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command (formerly the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center), the Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida on a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact test, DebriSat, conducted at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex in 2014. The resulting data from this impact test series are being analyzed to assess the fragments’ sizes/masses, materials/densities, shapes, and other parameters of interest. The DebriSat project provides the data needed to update NASA’s breakup models and size estimation models using the simulated orbital breakup of a modern, low Earth orbit spacecraft. Ultimately, over 200,000 fragments from this impact test will be stored at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and further analyzed by the ODPO. This project will also use machine learning techniques to infer physical parameters of fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam used in the impact experiment. Applied to X-ray imagery of the foam panels, these techniques promise to minimize human-in-the-loop processes for fragment extraction and physical characterization. A brief overview of this project and data collected will be presented. Lastly, the ODPO provides various capabilities hosted at NASA JSC for optical inspections and measurements using a variety of techniques and scientific instrumentation to support both in situ and laboratory measurements. The ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) is an advanced facility for photometric and spectroscopic laboratory measurements of targets, including fragments from the DebriSat project. The OMC simulates telescopic observations by using space-like illumination conditions and source-target-sensor orientation techniques. Additionally, the OMC is uniquely equipped to acquire pseudo-bidirectional reflectance distribution data for broadband photometric measurements, thus removing aspect angle dependencies that can affect target size estimates using the optical size estimation model. Narrow-band surface material characterization using spectroscopic instrumentation gives insight into how the albedo parameter – also important in the optical size estimation model – may vary depending on the state of the material. The OMC also performs simulations of photometric measurements using optical ray-tracing software to model the OMC optical throughput. In addition to the OMC, the ODPO houses a start-of-the-art Fragment Analysis Facility that uses multiple microscopic inspection instruments to support in situ measurements and material characterization. An overview of both facilities will be highlighted in this paper.

Orbital Debris↗

Highlights of NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office In Situ and Laboratory Measurements

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) maintains various returned spacecraft materials, capabilities, and facilities used for in situ and laboratory measurements that directly support orbital debris environmental models. In situ measurements include the analysis of exposed and returned hardware surfaces. These surfaces serve as passive sensors for the small-sized micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) flux below the sensitivity of ground-based radar and optical sensors. Various instruments and techniques are used to determine the size and depth of selected impact features, and – if feasible – the composition of the projectile material. Analysis of the impactor residues enables the differentiation of MM and OD for debris below 1 mm to support modeling the OD environment. In addition, projectiles identified as OD can be further differentiated in low-, medium-, and high- density impactors based on chemical analyses. In addition to in situ measurements, the ODPO has also worked in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command (formerly the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center), the Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida on a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact test, DebriSat, conducted at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex in 2014. The resulting data from this impact test series are being analyzed to assess the fragments’ sizes/masses, materials/densities, shapes, and other parameters of interest. The DebriSat project provides the data needed to update NASA’s breakup models and size estimation models using the simulated orbital breakup of a modern, low Earth orbit spacecraft. Ultimately, over 200,000 fragments from this impact test will be stored at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and further analyzed by the ODPO. This project will also use machine learning techniques to infer physical parameters of fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam used in the impact experiment. Applied to X-ray imagery of the foam panels, these techniques promise to minimize human-in-the-loop processes for fragment extraction and physical characterization. A brief overview of this project and data collected will be presented. Lastly, the ODPO provides various capabilities hosted at NASA JSC for optical inspections and measurements using a variety of techniques and scientific instrumentation to support both in situ and laboratory measurements. The ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) is an advanced facility for photometric and spectroscopic laboratory measurements of targets, including fragments from the DebriSat project. The OMC simulates telescopic observations by using space-like illumination conditions and source-target-sensor orientation techniques. Additionally, the OMC is uniquely equipped to acquire pseudo-bidirectional reflectance distribution data for broadband photometric measurements, thus removing aspect angle dependencies that can affect target size estimates using the optical size estimation model. Narrow-band surface material characterization using spectroscopic instrumentation gives insight into how the albedo parameter – also important in the optical size estimation model – may vary depending on the state of the material. The OMC also performs simulations of photometric measurements using optical ray-tracing software to model the OMC optical throughput. In addition to the OMC, the ODPO houses a start-of-the-art Fragment Analysis Facility that uses multiple microscopic inspection instruments to support in situ measurements and material characterization. An overview of both facilities will be highlighted in this paper.

Orbital Debris↗

SU-F-E-12: Elective International Rotations in Medical Physics Residency Programs

Purpose: The purpose of this educational program is to motivate talented, intelligent individuals to become stakeholders in the global effort to improve access to radiotherapy. Methods: The need to improve global access to radiotherapy has been clearly established and several organizations are making substantial progress in securing funding and developing plans to achieve this worthwhile goal. The incorporation of elective international rotations in residency programs may provide one possible mechanism to promote and support this future investment. We recently incorporated an elective 1-month international rotation into our CAMPEP accredited Medical Physics residency program, with our first rotation taking place in Vietnam. A unique aspect of this rotation was that it was scheduled collaboratively with our Radiation Oncology residency program such that Radiation Oncology and Medical Physics residents traveled to the same clinic at the same time. Results: We believe the international rotation substantially enhances the educational experience, providing additional benefits to residents by increasing cross-disciplinary learning and offering a shared learning experience. The combined international rotation may also increase benefit to the host institution by modeling positive multidisciplinary working relationships between Radiation Oncologists and Medical Physicists. Our first resident returned with several ideas designed to improve radiotherapy in resource-limited settings – one of which is currently being pursued in collaboration with a vendor. Conclusion: The elective international rotation provides a unique learning experience that has the potential to motivate residents to become stakeholders in the global effort to improve access to radiotherapy. What better way to prepare the next generation of Medical Physicists to meet the challenges of improving global access to radiotherapy than to provide them with training experiences that motivate them to be socially conscious and equip them with the clinical and problem solving skills required to deliver effective treatments in resource limited settings?.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Desert Research and Technology Studies (RATS) Local and Remote Test Sites

Desert RATS (Research and Technology Studies) is a combined group of inter-NASA center scientists and engineers, collaborating with representatives of industry and academia, for the purpose of conducting remote field exercises. These exercises provide the capability to validate experimental hardware and software, to evaluate and develop mission operational techniques, and to identify and establish technical requirements applicable for future planetary exploration. D-RATS completed its ninth year of field testing in September 2006. Dry run test activities prior to testing at designated remote field site locations are initially conducted at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Remote Field Demonstration Test Site. This is a multi-acre external test site located at JSC and has detailed representative terrain features simulating both Lunar and Mars surface characteristics. The majority of the remote field tests have been subsequently conducted in various high desert areas adjacent to Flagstaff, Arizona. Both the local JSC and remote field test sites have terrain conditions that are representative of both the Moon and Mars, such as strewn rock and volcanic ash fields, meteorite crater ejecta blankets, rolling plains, hills, gullies, slopes, and outcrops. Flagstaff is the preferred remote test site location for many reasons. First, there are nine potential test sites with representative terrain features within a 75-mile radius. Second, Flagstaff is the location of the United States Geologic Survey (USGS)/Astrogeology Branch, which historically supported Apollo astronaut geologic training and currently supports and provides host accommodations to the D-RATS team. Finally, in considering the importance of logistics in regard to providing the necessary level of support capabilities, the Flagstaff area provides substantial logistics support and lodging accommodations to take care of team members during long hours of field operations.

Janoiko, Barbara↗

MOA-2011-BLG-262Lb: A sub-Earth-mass moon orbiting a gas giant primary or a high velocity planetary system in the galactic Bulge

We present the first microlensing candidate for a free-floating exoplanet-exomoon system, MOA-2011-BLG-262, with a primary lens mass of M {sub host} ∼ 4 Jupiter masses hosting a sub-Earth mass moon. The argument for an exomoon hinges on the system being relatively close to the Sun. The data constrain the product M{sub L} π{sub rel} where M{sub L} is the lens system mass and π{sub rel} is the lens-source relative parallax. If the lens system is nearby (large π{sub rel}), then M{sub L} is small (a few Jupiter masses) and the companion is a sub-Earth-mass exomoon. The best-fit solution has a large lens-source relative proper motion, μ{sub rel} = 19.6 ± 1.6 mas yr{sup –1}, which would rule out a distant lens system unless the source star has an unusually high proper motion. However, data from the OGLE collaboration nearly rule out a high source proper motion, so the exoplanet+exomoon model is the favored interpretation for the best fit model. However, there is an alternate solution that has a lower proper motion and fits the data almost as well. This solution is compatible with a distant (so stellar) host. A Bayesian analysis does not favor the exoplanet+exomoon interpretation, so Occam's razor favors a lens system in the bulge with host and companion masses of M{sub host}=0.12{sub −0.06}{sup +0.19} M{sub ⊙} and m{sub comp}=18{sub −10}{sup +28} M{sub ⊕}, at a projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=0.84{sub −0.14}{sup +0.25} AU. The existence of this degeneracy is an unlucky accident, so current microlensing experiments are in principle sensitive to exomoons. In some circumstances, it will be possible to definitively establish the mass of such lens systems through the microlensing parallax effect. Future experiments will be sensitive to less extreme exomoons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gravitational Waves from Black Holes in Merging Ultra-Dwarf Galaxies

The origin of the black-hole:black-hole mergers discovered through gravitational waves with for example the LIGO/Virgo collaboration are a mystery. We investigate the idea that some of these black holes originate from the centers of extremely low-mass ultra-dwarf galaxies that have merged together in the distant past at $z>1$. Extrapolating the central black hole to stellar mass ratio suggests that the black holes in these mergers could arise from galaxies of masses $\sim 10^{5} - 10^{6}$ M$_{\odot}\,$. We investigate whether these galaxies merge enough, or too much, to be consistent with the observed GW rate of $\sim 9.7-101$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ using the latest LIGO/Virgo results. We show that in the nearby universe the merger rate and number densities of ultra-dwarf galaxies are too low, by an order or magnitude, to produce these black hole mergers. However, by considering that the merger fraction, merger-time scales, and the number densities of low-mass galaxies all conspire at $z>1-1.5$ to increase the merger rate for these galaxies at higher redshifts we argue that it is possible that some of the observed GW events arise from BHs in the centers of low-mass galaxies. The major uncertainty in this calculation is the dynamical time-scales for black holes in low-mass galaxies. Our results however suggest a very long BH merger time-scale of 4-7 Gyr, consistent with an extended black hole merger history. Further simulations are needed to verify this possibility, however our theory can be tested by searching for host galaxies of gravitational wave events. Results from these searches would will put limits on dwarf galaxy mergers and/or the presence and formation mechanisms of black holes through PopIII stars in the lowest mass galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

20 years of cosmic muons research performed in IFIN-HH

During the last two decades a modern direction in particle physics research has been developed in IFIN-HH Bucharest, Romania. The history started with the WILLI detector built in IFIN-HH Bucharest in collaboration with KIT Karlsruhe (formerly Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe). The detector was designed for measurements of the low energy muon charge ratio (< 1GeV) based on a delayed coincidence method, measuring the decay time of the muons stopped in the detector: the positive muons decay freely, but the negative muons are captured in the atom thus creating muonic atoms and decay depending on the nature of the host atom. In a first configuration, the WILLI detector was placed in a fixed position for measuring vertical muons. Further WILLI has been transformed in a rotatable device which allows directional measurements of muon charge ratio and muon flux. The results exhibit a pronounced azimuthal asymmetry (East-West effect) due to the different in fluence of the geomagnetic field on the trajectories of positive and negative muons in air. In parallel, flux measurement, taking into account muon events with nergies > 0.4GeV, show a diurnal modulation of the muon flux. The analysis of the muon events for energies < 0.6GeV reveals an aperiodic variation of the muon flux. A new detection system performing coincidence measurements between the WILLI calorimeter and a small array of 12 scintillators plates has been installed in IFIN-HH starting from the autumn of 2010. The aim of the system is to investigate muon charge ratio from individual EAS by using the mini-array as trigger for the WILLI calorimeter. Such experimental studies could provide detailed information on hadronic interaction models and primary cosmic ray composition at energies around 10{sup 15}eV. Simulation studies and preliminary experimental tests, regarding the performances of the mini-array, have been performed using H and Fe primaries, with energies in a range 10{sup 13}eV - 10{sup 15}eV. The results show detailed effects of the direction of EAS incidence relative to the geomagnetic field, depending, in particular, of the primary mass. Based on the results, we can say that WILLI-EAS experiment could be used for testing the hadronic interaction models. Measurements of the high energy muon flux in underground of the salt mine from Slanic Prahova, Romania was performed using a new mobile detector developed in IFIN-HH, Bucharest. Consisting of 2 scintillator plates measuring in coincidence, the detector is installed on a van which facilitates measurements on different positions at surface or in underground. The detector was used to measure muon fluxes in different locations at surface or in underground. The detector was used to measure muon fluxes at different sites of Romania and in the underground of the salt mines from Slanic Prahova, Romania where IFIN-HH has a modern underground laboratory. New methods for the detection of cosmic ray muons are investigated in our institute based on scintillator techniques using optical fiber and MPPC photodyodes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

International Collaboration Activities on Engineered Barrier Systems

The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) within the DOE Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) program has been engaging in international collaborations between repository R&D programs for high-level waste (HLW) disposal to leverage on gathered knowledge and laboratory/field data of near- and far-field processes from experiments at underground research laboratories (URL). Heater test experiments at URLs provide a unique opportunity to mimetically study the thermal effects of heat-generating nuclear waste in subsurface repository environments. Various configurations of these experiments have been carried out at various URLs according to the disposal design concepts of the hosting country repository program. The FEBEX (Full-scale Engineered Barrier Experiment in Crystalline Host Rock) project is a large-scale heater test experiment originated by the Spanish radioactive waste management agency (Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radiactivos S.A. – ENRESA) at the Grimsel Test Site (GTS) URL in Switzerland. The project was subsequently managed by CIEMAT. FEBEX-DP is a concerted effort of various international partners working on the evaluation of sensor data and characterization of samples obtained during the course of this field test and subsequent dismantling. The main purpose of these field-scale experiments is to evaluate feasibility for creation of an engineered barrier system (EBS) with a horizontal configuration according to the Spanish concept of deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste in crystalline rock. Another key aspect of this project is to improve the knowledge of coupled processes such as thermal-hydro-mechanical (THM) and thermal-hydro-chemical (THC) operating in the near-field environment. The focus of these is on model development and validation of predictions through model implementation in computational tools to simulate coupled THM and THC processes.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Collaborative Analysis Tool for Integrated Hypersonic Aerodynamics, Thermal Protection Systems, and RBCC Engine Performance for Single Stage to Orbit Vehicles

Presented is a computer-based tool that connects several disciplines that are needed in the complex and integrated design of high performance reusable single stage to orbit (SSTO) vehicles. Every system is linked to every other system, as is the case of SSTO vehicles with air breathing propulsion, which is currently being studied by NASA. An RBCC propulsion system integrates airbreathing and rocket propulsion into a single engine assembly enclosed within a cowl or duct. A typical RBCC propulsion system operates as a ducted rocket up to approximately Mach 3. Then there is a transition to a ramjet mode for supersonic-to-hypersonic acceleration. Around Mach 8 the engine transitions to a scramjet mode. During the ramjet and scramjet modes, the integral rockets operate as fuel injectors. Around Mach 10-12 (the actual value depends on vehicle and mission requirements), the inlet is physically closed and the engine transitions to an integral rocket mode for orbit insertion. A common feature of RBCC propelled vehicles is the high degree of integration between the propulsion system and airframe. At high speeds the vehicle forebody is fundamentally part of the engine inlet, providing a compression surface for air flowing into the engine. The compressed air is mixed with fuel and burned. The combusted mixture must be expanded to an area larger than the incoming stream to provide thrust. Since a conventional nozzle would be too large, the entire lower after body of the vehicle is used as an expansion surface. Because of the high external temperatures seen during atmospheric flight, the design of an airbreathing SSTO vehicle requires delicate tradeoffs between engine design, vehicle shape, and thermal protection system (TPS) sizing in order to produce an optimum system in terms of weight (and cost) and maximum performance. To adequately determine the performance of the engine/vehicle, the Hypersonic Flight Inlet Model (HYFIM) module was designed to interface with the RBCC engine model. HYFIM performs the aerodynamic analysis of forebodies and inlet characteristics of RBCC powered SSTO launch vehicles. HYFIM is applicable to the analysis of the ramjet/scramjet engine operations modes (Mach 3-12), and provides estimates of parameters such as air capture area, shock-on-lip Mach number, design Mach number, compression ratio, etc., based on a basic geometry routine for modeling axisymmetric cones, 2-D wedge geometries. HYFIM also estimates the variation of shock layer properties normal to the forebody surface. The thermal protection system (TPS) is directly linked to determination of the vehicle moldline and the shaping of the trajectory. Thermal protection systems to maintain the structural integrity of the vehicle must be able to mitigate the heat transfer to the structure and be lightweight. Herein lies the interdependency, in that as the vehicle's speed increases, the TPS requirements are increased. And as TPS masses increase the effect on the propulsion system and all other systems is compounded. The need to analyze vehicle forebody and engine inlet is critical to be able to design the RBCC vehicle. To adequately determine insulation masses for an RBCC vehicle, the hypersonic aerodynamic environment and aeroheating loads must be calculated and the TPS thicknesses must be calculated for the entire vehicle. To accomplish this an ascent or reentry trajectory is obtained using the computer code Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). The trajectory is then used to calculate the convective heat rates on several locations on the vehicles using the Miniature Version of the JA70 Aerodynamic Heating Computer Program (MINIVER). Once the heat rates are defined for each body point on the vehicle, then insulation thicknesses that are required to maintain the vehicle within structural limits are calculated using Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA) models. If the TPS masses are too heavy for the performance of the vehicle the process may be repeated altering the trajectory or some other input to reduce the TPS mass. E-PSURBCC is an "engine performance" model and requires the specification of inlet air static temperature and pressure as well as Mach number (which it pulls from the HYFIM and POST trajectory files), and calculates the corresponding stagnation properties. The engine air flow path geometry includes inlet, a constant area section where the rocket is positioned, a subsonic diffuser, a constant area afterburner, and either a converging nozzle or a converging-diverging nozzle. The current capabilities of E-PSURBCC ejector and ramjet mode treatment indicated that various complex flow phenomena including multiple choking and internal shocks can occur for combinations of geometry/flow conditions. For a given input deck defining geometry/flow conditions, the program first goes through a series of checks to establish whether the input parameters are sound in terms of a solution path. If the vehicle/engine performance fails mission goals, the engineer is able to collaboratively alter the vehicle moldline to change aerodynamics, or trajectory, or some other input to achieve orbit. The problem described is an example of the need for collaborative design and analysis. RECIPE is a cross-platform application capable of hosting a number of engineers and designers across the Internet for distributed and collaborative engineering environments. Such integrated system design environments allow for collaborative team design analysis for performing individual or reduced team studies. To facilitate the larger number of potential runs that may need to be made, RECIPE connects the computer codes that calculate the trajectory data, aerodynamic data based on vehicle geometry, heat rate data, TPS masses, and vehicle and engine performance, so that the output from each tool is easily transferred to the model input files that need it.

Stanley, Thomas Troy↗

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. - Highlights: • Experts identified challenges for health and pathogen modelling under climate change. • Eighteen key challenges and associated research priorities were identified. • Increasing capacity will require improved organisation and sharing knowledge. • Better communication across the diverse topics and approaches in this field is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical Evaluation of the Department of Energy Research and Development Activities in Underground Research Laboratories - 20287

Congress created the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board (NWTRB) in the 1987 Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act (Public Law 100-203) to evaluate the technical and scientific validity of activities undertaken by the Secretary of Energy to implement the Nuclear Waste Policy Act. Since 2012, DOE has collaborated in research conducted in several underground research laboratories (URLs) located in Europe and Asia. According to DOE, these international collaborations have been beneficial to its spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste radioactive (HLW) disposal research program, particularly after the termination of the Yucca Mountain repository program when DOE began generic research on alternative host rocks (crystalline, clay, and salt) and repository environments very different from those at Yucca Mountain. In accordance with its mandate, the NWTRB is reviewing the DOE research and development (R and D) activities related to URLs. The NWTRB's review is documented in a report to Congress and the Secretary of Energy that will be released in January 2020, and this paper summarizes the NWTRB review and findings. The NWTRB held a fact-finding meeting with DOE and subsequently held a workshop on international URL collaborations in April of 2019. Based on the presentations and discussions at the workshop and at the fact-finding meeting, as well as information from reports published by DOE and others, there are four principal findings related to DoE's URL-related R and D activities. First, DOE participation in URL-related international research greatly benefits the U.S. geologic disposal R and D program by furthering its understanding of generic and site-specific disposal issues relevant to alternative repository host rocks and environments. DOE-funded R and D activities also are benefiting the URL-related research of other countries, especially in the area of complex analytical and numerical model/software development. Second, the more developed repository programs in other countries have focused on creating and strengthening their safety cases and making them transparent to the public. Repository programs in other countries use URLs to explain the technical bases underlying their safety cases, periodically reassess knowledge gaps and define new activities to strengthen the technical bases, and demonstrate the technology that will allow implementation of the proposed safety concept. Third, countries with more developed geologic disposal programs have found domestic URLs essential to their repository programs. DOE needs domestic URLs to advance geologic disposal efforts over the next decades and further its ability to train the next generation of scientists, engineers, and skilled technical workers. Fourth, DoE's international URL collaborations have advanced its generic disposal R and D program, including development of modeling capabilities recognized internationally as state-of-the-art, but further work on its coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical models and URL- and laboratory-based research can strengthen its program. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Type Ia Supernova Growth-rate Measurement with LSST Simulations: Intrinsic Scatter Systematics

Measurement of the growth rate of structures (fσ 8 ) with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) will improve our understanding of the nature of dark energy and enable tests of general relativity. In this paper, we generate simulations of the 10 yr SN Ia data set of the Rubin-LSST survey, including a correlated velocity field from an N-body simulation and realistic models of SNe Ia properties and their correlations with host-galaxy properties. We find, similar to SN Ia analyses that constrain the dark energy equation-of-state parameters w 0 w a , that constraints on fσ 8 can be biased depending on the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia. While for the majority of intrinsic scatter models we recover fσ 8 with a precision of ∼13%–14%, for the most realistic dust-based model, we find that the presence of non-Gaussianities in Hubble diagram residuals leads to a bias on fσ 8 of ∼ −20%. When trying to correct for the dust-based intrinsic scatter, we find that the propagation of the uncertainty on the model parameters does not significantly increase the error on fσ 8 . We also find that while the main component of the error budget of fσ 8 is the statistical uncertainty (>75% of the total error budget), the systematic error budget is dominated by the uncertainty on the damping parameter, σ u , that gives an empirical description of the effect of redshift space distortions on the velocity power spectrum. Our results motivate a search for new methods to correct for the non-Gaussian distribution of the Hubble diagram residuals, as well as an improved modeling of the damping parameter.

Carreres, Bastien [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗

SuperLab 2.0 Showcase: Connecting Five Labs to Tackle Grid Complexity and Unlock Unique Grid Asset Potential

SuperLab 2.0 (a five-lab demonstration) is a collaborative, national-scale experiment showcasing the coordination of geographically distributed energy assets in real time. The demonstration integrates 25 physical and digital assets, spanning wind, photovoltaics, batteries, electrolyzers, DC fast chargers, microgrid controllers, building automation systems, small modular reactors, control centers, and gas turbines, across five U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories: National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Idaho National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. These assets are unified using Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a low-latency, high-performance DOE network, and are controlled via a centralized energy controller hosted at NLR's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems facility. The demonstration validates the ability to stress-test hybrid energy systems under dynamic scenarios to de-risk advanced control strategies for greater resilience and flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Alternative High-Performance Ceramic Waste Forms

This final report (M5NU-12-NY-AU # 0202-0410) summarizes the results of the project titled “Alternative High-Performance Ceramic Waste Forms,” funded in FY12 by the Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP Project # 12-3809) being led by Alfred University in collaboration with Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The overall focus of the project is to advance fundamental understanding of crystalline ceramic waste forms and to demonstrate their viability as alternative waste forms to borosilicate glasses. We processed single- and multiphase hollandite waste forms based on simulated waste streams compositions provided by SRNL based on the advanced fuel cycle initiative (AFCI) aqueous separation process developed in the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCR&D). For multiphase simulated waste forms, oxide and carbonate precursors were mixed together via ball milling with deionized water using zirconia media in a polyethylene jar for 2 h. The slurry was dried overnight and then separated from the media. The blended powders were then subjected to melting or spark plasma sintering (SPS) processes. Microstructural evolution and phase assemblages of these samples were studied using x-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersion analysis of x-rays (EDAX), wavelength dispersive spectrometry (WDS), transmission electron spectroscopy (TEM), selective area x-ray diffraction (SAXD), and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). These results showed that the processing methods have significant effect on the microstructure and thus the performance of these waste forms. The Ce substitution into zirconolite and pyrochlore materials was investigated using a combination of experimental (in situ XRD and x-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES)) and modeling techniques to study these single phases independently. In zirconolite materials, a transition from the 2M to the 4M polymorph was observed with increasing Ce content. The resulting powders were consolidated via SPS. Ce was reduced to the trivalent oxidation state and the zirconolite was converted into undesirable perovskite. The zirconolite polymorphs found in the synthesized powders were recovered after a post-SPS heat treatment in air. These results demonstrated the potential of processing in controlling the phase assemblage in these waste forms. Hollandites with Cr 3+ trivalent cations were identified as potential hosts for Cs immobilization and are being investigated for Cs retention properties. Series of compositions Ba 1.15-x Cs 2x Cr 2.3 Ti 5.7 O 16 , with increasing Cs loadings, were prepared by sol-gel process and characterized for structural parameters. Structural characterization was performed by a combination of powder XRD and neutron powder diffraction. Phase pure hollandite adapting monoclinic symmetry (I2/m) was observed for 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.55. These results were used to develop a new structural model to interpret Cs immobilization in these hollandites. Performance of these waste forms were evaluated for chemical durability and radiation resistance. Product consistency testing (PCT) and vapor hydration testing (VHT) were used for testing of chemical durability. Radiation resistance was tested using He + ions to simulate $\alpha$ particles and heavy ions such as Au 3+ to simulate a recoil. These results showed that these waste forms were chemically durable. The waste forms also amorphized to various degrees on exposure to simulated radiation.

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The Dark Energy Survey supernova programme: modelling selection efficiency and observed core-collapse supernova contamination

ABSTRACT The analysis of current and future cosmological surveys of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at high redshift depends on the accurate photometric classification of the SN events detected. Generating realistic simulations of photometric SN surveys constitutes an essential step for training and testing photometric classification algorithms, and for correcting biases introduced by selection effects and contamination arising from core-collapse SNe in the photometric SN Ia samples. We use published SN time-series spectrophotometric templates, rates, luminosity functions, and empirical relationships between SNe and their host galaxies to construct a framework for simulating photometric SN surveys. We present this framework in the context of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr photometric SN sample, comparing our simulations of DES with the observed DES transient populations. We demonstrate excellent agreement in many distributions, including Hubble residuals, between our simulations and data. We estimate the core collapse fraction expected in the DES SN sample after selection requirements are applied and before photometric classification. After testing different modelling choices and astrophysical assumptions underlying our simulation, we find that the predicted contamination varies from 7.2 to 11.7 per cent, with an average of 8.8 per cent and an r.m.s. of 1.1 per cent. Our simulations are the first to reproduce the observed photometric SN and host galaxy properties in high-redshift surveys without fine-tuning the input parameters. The simulation methods presented here will be a critical component of the cosmology analysis of the DES photometric SN Ia sample: correcting for biases arising from contamination, and evaluating the associated systematic uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Development of Two Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) for NASA's Earth Observation System (EOS)

In 2001, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics started the construction of a science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS) for processing data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) which will launch on the Aura platform in mid 2004. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is a contribution of the Netherlands Agency for Aerospace Programs (NIVR) in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) to the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission. It will continue the Total Ozone Monitoring System (TOMS) record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to ozone chemistry and climate. OMI measurements will be highly synergistic with the other instruments on the EOS Aura platform. The LTP previously developed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Data Processing System (MODAPS), which has been in full operations since the launches of the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts in December, 1999 and May, 2002 respectively. During that time, it has continually evolved to better support the needs of the MODIS team. We now run multiple instances of the system managing faster than real time reprocessings of the data as well as continuing forward processing. The new OMI Data Processing System (OMIDAPS) was adapted from the MODAPS. It will ingest raw data from the satellite ground station and process it to produce calibrated, geolocated higher level data products. These data products will be transmitted to the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (GDAAC) instance of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) for long term archive and distribution to the public. The OMIDAPS will also provide data distribution to the OMI Science Team for quality assessment, algorithm improvement, calibration, etc. We have taken advantage of lessons learned from the MODIS experience and software already developed for MODIS. We made some changes in the hardware system organization, database and software to adapt the system for OMI. We replaced the fundamental database system, Sybase, with an Open Source RDBMS called PostgreSQL, and based the entire OMIDAPS on a cluster of Linux based commodity computers rather than the large SGI servers that MODAPS uses. Rather than relying on a central I/O server host, the new system distributes its data archive among multiple server hosts in the cluster. OMI is also customizing the graphical user interfaces and reporting structure to more closely meet the needs of the OMI Science Team. Prior to 2003, simulated OMI data and the science algorithms were not ready for production testing. We initially constructed a prototype system and tested using a 25 year dataset of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) data. This prototype system provided a platform to support the adaptation of the algorithms for OMI, and provided reprocessing of the historical data aiding in its analysis. In a recent reanalysis of the TOMS data, the OMIDAPS processed 108,000 full orbits of data through 4 processing steps per orbit, producing about 800,000 files (400 GiB) of level 2 and greater data files. More recently we have installed two instances of the OMIDAPS for integration and testing of OM1 science processes as they get delivered from the Science Team. A Test instance of the OMIDAPS has also supported a series of "Interface Confidence Tests" (ICTs) and End-to-End Ground System tests to ensure the launch readiness of the system. This paper will discuss the high-level hardware, software, and database organization of the OMIDAPS and how it builds on the MODAPS heritage system. It will also provide an overview of the testing and implementation of the production OMIDAPS.

Tilmes, Curt↗

FY16 Summary Report: Participation in the KOSINA Project

Salt formations represent a promising host for disposal of nuclear waste in the United States and Germany. Together, these countries provided fully developed safety cases for bedded salt and domal salt, respectively. Today, Germany and the United States find themselves in similar positions with respect to salt formations serving as repositories for heat-generating nuclear waste. German research centers are evaluating bedded and pillow salt formations to contrast with their previous safety case made for the Gorleben dome. Sandia National Laboratories is collaborating on this effort as an Associate Partner, and this report summarizes that teamwork. Sandia and German research groups have a long-standing cooperative approach to repository science, engineering, operations, safety assessment, testing, modeling and other elements comprising the basis for salt disposal. Germany and the United States hold annual bilateral workshops, which cover a spectrum of issues surrounding the viability of salt formations. Notably, recent efforts include development of a database for features, events, and processes applying broadly and generically to bedded and domal salt. Another international teaming activity evaluates salt constitutive models, including hundreds of new experiments conducted on bedded salt from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. These extensive collaborations continue to build the scientific basis for salt disposal. Repository deliberations in the United States are revisiting bedded and domal salt for housing a nuclear waste repository. By agreeing to collaborate with German peers, our nation stands to benefit by assurance of scientific position, exchange of operational concepts, and approach to elements of the safety case, all reflecting cost and time efficiency.

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