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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Spatially Resolved Domicile Charging Demands for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles in Virginia

The use of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and resulting grid impacts are likely to grow rapidly, and evaluation of optimal smart charge management and grid integration strategies is warranted now. Evaluating distribution grid impacts requires fine-grained models of PEV operations to estimate charging loads across diverse vehicles at high spatial resolution. We propose such a model and consider a high-electrification scenario in Richmond and Newport News, Virginia. Our framework considers four categories of vehicle that are amenable to early aggressive electrification: light-duty passenger vehicles (LDV), trucks and vans with a focus on delivery or other local operations, school buses, and transit buses. These vehicles have a relatively consistent domicile, reducing the need for public charging infrastructure rollout to electrify. We apply a recent LDV model and propose new models for each vocation of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle, leveraging telematics data. We demonstrate our framework in Virginia and find energy demands in the region may total 15 GWh day, with most consumed by LDV. However, considering power demand at high spatial resolution reveals a different trend: LDVs have relatively small peak loads at specific sites (peak site demand around 800 kW) compared to average and high demand medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging sites (peak site demand around 6,000 kW at a transit bus depot, 1,500 kW at a local freight hub, and 1,000 kW at a school). Our framework yields insights on the relative impacts of each vocation and enables future work to tailor grid integration strategies to each vehicle category.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

White Rock Canyon Riparian Monitoring

Lands at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are owned and managed by the Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA). The Laboratory’s eastern boundary is in White Rock Canyon (WRC) along the Rio Grande within Technical Areas (TAs) 70 and 33, with approximately 4 miles of property along the river (Figure 1). Feral cattle have been documented along the Rio Grande in WRC since the 1980s. Cattle activity is known to be especially harmful to riparian ecosystems, which are hubs for biodiversity and crucial habitat used by multiple endangered species in this region, including the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher and Yellow-billed Cuckoo on LANL property (Poessel 2020, Sanchez 2021). To gain a comprehensive understanding of the status of riparian ecosystems within WRC and the damage feral cattle populations are imposing, ecologists at LANL conducted a month-long vegetation monitoring project in September 2025. Riparian vegetation monitoring protocols and rapid assessments of cattle impacts were used to quantify the intensity and extent of cattle damage. The data collected will be used as a baseline for comparison following the removal of feral cattle from the canyon. Abundant cattle sign indicates current and heavy utilization of the riparian areas that were surveyed. There are multiple wallowing areas where soils are completely denuded of vegetation and highly compacted. Based on the severity and extent of impact observed in these areas, cattle use appears consistent and on-going over an extended period of years, supporting the need for removal and restoration management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ride Pingo to Transit

In this project, we developed an on-demand microtransit first- and last-mile service. To integrate the service with fixed-route transit, we developed a feature called Transit Connect that prioritized riders’ on-time arrival at the transit station over other service requirements. We first prototyped service and related algorithms in a simulated environment, and then piloted the service in the city of Kent, Washington. Our algorithm incorporates request-specific hard drop-off deadlines to ensure timely arrivals for transit transfers. In the pilot, these constraints were obtained from GTFS Realtime data to accurately determine the schedule of the transit and the location of the stations. This approach introduced the ability to accept or decline new requests based on the timing of transit connections for these new requests and connection status of onboarding customers. The pilot (called “Ride Pingo to Transit”) deployed a fleet of three 14-person vans, ran from September 2021 to March 2023, and served a total of 21,329 trips. Transit Connect was offered for drop-offs at both Kent Station and the Kent Valley hub. In total, 2,844 such trips were completed. This dataset was collected from our pilot, which includes the following: - Requests: List of all trip requests, including those that were actually served and those not materialized. - Fleet: Daily vehicle service logs. - Service details: Daily vehicle stop logs (boarding and alighting). - Trip types: First mile, last mile, or point-to-point. ![pingo to transit](pingo-to-transit.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

WM26 Paper Multi-Robot Collaboration for Hazardous Environments

Hazardous nuclear and industrial facilities are rarely designed for robots. Work in these domains demand precise manipulation and robust mobility in cluttered, constrained spaces where off-the-shelf platforms struggle and “one-size-fits-all” machines become costly and complex. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is developing an autonomous, multi-robot inspection system that coordinates task-specific platforms rather than relying on a single omni-tool robot. An electric truck serves as a power and compute hub for a custom manipulator co-developed with Florida International University (FIU), a commercial mini crawler, a pan–tilt–zoom camera, and a Nexxis Argus LiDAR mapping system. Working in concert, these robots generate spatial, radiation, and temperature maps of the pit environments at the Hanford Waste Tank Farms. These systems will capture visual records and environmental telemetry to allow for analysis post inspection. The system architecture uses Robot Operating System 2 (ROS 2) for publish/subscribe integration, NVIDIA Isaac Sim and Unity for simulation and visualization, and algorithms such as NVBlox to fuse data into unified 3D overlays. This robot-agnostic approach reduces operator burden by enabling autonomy across heterogeneous platforms and lets each robot be used where it is strongest. Having autonomous functions means operators don’t have to fully control multiple different components. The ease of use could allow for more widespread adoption of advanced robotics at waste management sites that see continued use. By coordinating simpler, purpose-built mechanisms, the approach lowers design and manufacturing complexity, reduces capital risk in contaminated settings, and improves controllability for complex inspection and manipulation tasks. We present the architecture, early results, and lessons learned from building and deploying this coordinated multi-robot system, with the goal of accelerating safe, cost-effective adoption of advanced robotics at waste-management sites.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

WorkflowHub: a registry for computational workflows

The rising popularity of computational workflows is driven by the need for repetitive and scalable data processing, sharing of processing know-how, and transparent methods. As both combined records of analysis and descriptions of processing steps, workflows should be reproducible, reusable, adaptable, and available. Workflow sharing presents opportunities to reduce unnecessary reinvention, promote reuse, increase access to best practice analyses for non-experts, and increase productivity. In reality, workflows are scattered and difficult to find, in part due to the diversity of available workflow engines and ecosystems, and because workflow sharing is not yet part of research practice. WorkflowHub provides a unified registry for all computational workflows that links to community repositories, and supports both the workflow lifecycle and making workflows findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). By interoperating with diverse platforms, services, and external registries, WorkflowHub adds value by supporting workflow sharing, explicitly assigning credit, enhancing FAIRness, and promoting workflows as scholarly artefacts. The registry has a global reach, with hundreds of research organisations involved, and more than 800 workflows registered.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Employment access assessed using the mobility energy productivity (MEP) metric

Transit agencies, local governments, employers, and job-seekers have a shared interest in connecting residents with jobs in an affordable and time efficient manner, with public agencies also caring about energy efficiency and air quality. Employment hubs are an opportunity to solve the spatial mismatch between homes of job-seekers and the locations of desirable jobs. Such is the case in Columbus, Ohio, between Rickenbacker Industrial Park and the Linden neighborhood, which has experienced persistent poverty. Using the mobility energy productivity (MEP) metric to examine travel time, cost, and energy efficiency, we show current transit service is undesirable due to excessive travel time (70 min, MEP = 0), while driving alone (MEP = 0.20) may be less desirable than a hypothetical, fare-free microtransit service (MEP = 0.23). Updating MEP to use locally-derived input data can help identify parameters under which providing microtransit service in a specific place has compelling benefits in terms of vehicle energy efficiency as well as cost and travel time for riders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Port Operations: Powered by NREL

Seaports are vital economic hubs that allow the United States to compete on a global scale. But the heavy vehicles and cargo equipment that enable their operations also emit harmful air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions. For nearly two decades, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers have worked toward comprehensive seaport decarbonization. They fuse world-class analysis with deep vehicle and transportation systems knowledge to guide strategic deployment of low- and zero-emissions vehicles, charging and refueling infrastructure, and grid improvements. Together, these capabilities can enable sustainable port operations. This fact sheet outlines major seaport and airport decarbonization capabilities across the laboratory, including: fleet research, energy data, and insights for decarbonization; comprehensive hydrogen infrastructure deployment; optimized charging through grid integration; strategic blueprinting for clean, optimized technology deployment; and integrating diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility considerations into decarbonization efforts.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY CONSERVATION, C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wind and Temperature Consensus at Horn Point, HU-Beltsville, Piney Run (Maryland) in support of CoURAGE

The Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) operates a ground-based atmospheric profiling network consisting of collocated radar wind profilers (RWP) and radio acoustic sounding systems (RASS) as part of its Ambient Air Monitoring Program. This network provides continuous observations of wind and temperature structure in the lower troposphere to support air quality forecasting, regulatory analysis, and atmospheric research. The network currently includes three fixed sites across Maryland: Horn Point (HP, lower eastern shore) [38.587525°,-76.141006°], Howard University-Beltsville (HUB, central Maryland) [39.055277°, -76.878632°], and Piney Run (PR, western Maryland) [39.705950°, -79.012000°] The network is designed to capture regional variability in atmospheric transport and boundary-layer processes. These systems measure vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed and direction using Doppler radar techniques, with observations typically spanning from ~100 m above ground level up to approximately 2.5–4 km. Measurements are derived from the Doppler shift of backscattered electromagnetic signals, enabling retrieval of wind vectors at multiple altitudes with high temporal resolution (e.g., 30-minute averages reported every 6 minutes). Each radar wind profiler is paired with a Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS) to provide profiles of virtual temperature in the lower atmosphere (~100–200 m AGL) by measuring the propagation speed of acoustic waves. Together, the RWP/RASS system yields a coupled data set of thermodynamic and kinematic atmospheric structure, including additional parameters such as vertical velocity, radial velocity, signal-to-noise ratio, and spectral width for advanced analysis. There are two types of files for each station: wind data (files with a "w" prefix) and virtual temperature RASS data (files with a "t" prefix). The wind data files are in the format wYYDDD.cns, where YY is the 2-digit year and DDD is the day of the year. The RASS virtual temperature data files are in the format tYYDDD.cns. Each record has the following header structure: Line 1 : Station Name RASS files Line 2 : RASS rev DeTect_2.0, WINDS files Line 2 : WINDS rev ATI 5.1 Line 3 : N latitude, W longitude, and site elevation (m) Line 4 : Date and begin time of consensus: yy mm dd hh mn ss plus # minutes to add to get UTC Line 5 : Consensus averaging time (minutes); number of beams; number of range gates Line 6 : Number of records required to make consensus (num) total number of records (tot) and the consensus window size (m/s) in the format: num:tot (window) RASS files Line 7 : no. of coded cells, no. of spec, pulse width (ns), and inter-pulse period (µs), WINDS files Line 7 : No. of coded cells, no. of spectra, pulse width (ns), and inter-pulse period (µs), each with a pair of values: first value is for oblique beams, second for vertical RASS files Line 8 : Full scale Doppler value (m/s) Delay to first gate (ns) Number of gates Spacing of gates (ns), WINDS files Line 8 : Full scale Doppler velocity (m/s), oblique and vertical Vertical correction applied to oblique beams? (0 = no, 1 = yes) Delay to first gate (ns), oblique and vertical Number of gates, oblique and vertical Spacing of gates (ns), oblique and vertical Line 9 : Azimuth and elevation (9s indicate vertical beam not used) RASS files Line 10, values : HT = Height above ground (km), T = Uncorrected virtual temperature consensus (deg C), Tc = Corrected virtual temperature consensus (deg C), W = Vertical wind consensus (9s indicate vertical beam not used, w-component, positive upward, m/s), CNT = Number of records that made consensus (for the 3 values in same order), SNR = Average signal to noise ratio (dB) of records in consensus (same order) WINDS files Line 10, values : HT = Height above ground (km), SPD = Wind speed (m/s), DIR = Wind direction (deg E of N from N), RAD = Radial velocities for each beam (m/s) in order given in azimuth and elevation line (positive toward radar; 9s indicate vertical beam not used, CNT = Number of records that made consensus, SNR = Average signal to noise ratio (dB) of records in consensus

{"wind speed and direction",temperature}↗
DOE OSTI2026

An On-Demand Electric Transit Case Study of New Rochelle, New York

Here, this article characterizes the performance and ridership patterns of an on-demand transit (ODT) service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) in New Rochelle, New York. Ridership sociodemographics, travel patterns (both temporal and spatiotemporal), and energy use from the service were explored using travel and survey data from September 2019 through December 2023. The ODT service was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service was utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 mi), with approximately one-third of riders using the ODT service to connect to a train or bus. The costs associated with fueling/charging were compared for different types of fleet vehicles, and the small, right-sized EVs were found to have annual charging costs that were roughly half of the refueling costs for conventional hybrid vans, and 24 times lower than a fleet of diesel buses. Evaluating the vehicle fleet and mapping current socio-spatial travel demand can inform system performance, guide service area development, and support future planning such as expansion to nearby communities and transit hubs. The findings in this case study suggest that on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing highly valued public mobility services. Public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help improve mobility access and reduce energy use and refueling costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

GRIDCERF - Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility

The Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (GRIDCERF) data package is a high-resolution product to evaluate siting suitability for renewable and non-renewable power plants in the conterminous United States. GRIDCERF offers hundreds of individual suitability layers for use with both renewable and non-renewable power plant technology configurations in a harmonized format that can be easily ingested by geospatially-enabled modeling software. It also provides pre-compiled technology-specific suitability layers and allows for user customization to robustly address science objectives when evaluating varying future conditions. GRIDCERF data can be directly used with the CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) model to site power plants at a 1km resolution. GRIDCERF includes composite technology siting suitability raster layers for the following utility scale technology configurations. Note that, in addition to technology sub-types shown below, various cooling types are also included (recirculating, pond, once-through, recirculating-seawater, dry-hybrid, or dry) for various technologies. Biomass Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Coal Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Natural Gas Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Geothermal Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) - Class 1 through Class 5 resource potential Nuclear Gen 2 Light Water Reactor (LWR) Gen 3 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Gen 3 AP1000 Refined Liquids Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Solar Photovoltaic (PV) - for capacity factors in the range of 6-18% Utility-scale Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) - for capacity factors in the range of 24-46% Tower Wind (Onshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 5-50% 80m hub height 100m hub height 120m hub height 140m hub height Wind (Offshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 25-60% 100m hub height 140m hub height 160m hub height

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Depletion of the Protein Hydration Shell with Increasing Temperature Observed by Small-Angle X-ray Scattering and Molecular Simulations

The hydration shell is an integral part of proteins since it plays key roles in conformational transitions, molecular recognition, and enzymatic activity. While the dynamics of the hydration shell have been described by spectroscopic techniques, the structure of the hydration shell remains less understood due to the lack of hydration shell-sensitive structural probes with high spatial resolution. We combined temperature-ramp small-angle X-ray scattering (T-ramp SAXS) from 255 to 335 K with molecular simulations to demonstrate that the hydration shells of the IgG-binding domain of Protein G (GB3) and the villin headpiece are remarkably temperature-sensitive. For proteins in the folded state, T-ramp SAXS data and explicit-solvent SAXS predictions consistently demonstrate decays of protein contrasts and radii of gyration with increasing temperature, which are shown to reflect predominantly temperature-sensitive, depleting hydration shells. The depletion is caused not merely by enhanced disorder within the hydration shells but also by partial displacements of surface-coordinated water molecules. Together, T-ramp SAXS and explicit-solvent SAXS calculations provide a novel structural view of the protein hydration shell, which underlies temperature-dependent processes such as cold denaturation, thermophoresis, or biomolecular phase separation.

electron density↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extending quantum-mechanical benchmark accuracy to biological ligand-pocket interactions

Predicting the binding affinity of ligands to protein pockets is key in the drug design pipeline. The flexibility of ligand-pocket motifs arises from a range of attractive and repulsive electronic interactions during binding. Accurately accounting for all interactions requires robust quantum-mechanical (QM) benchmarks, which are scarce for ligand-pocket systems. Additionally, disagreement between “gold standard” Coupled Cluster (CC) and Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods casts doubt on many benchmarks for larger non-covalent systems. We introduce the “QUantum Interacting Dimer” (QUID) benchmark framework containing 170 non-covalent (non-)equilibrium systems modeling chemically and structurally diverse ligand-pocket motifs. Symmetry-adapted perturbation theory shows that QUID broadly covers non-covalent binding motifs and energetic contributions. Robust binding energies are obtained using complementary CC and QMC methods, achieving agreement of 0.5 kcal/mol. The benchmark data analysis reveals that several dispersion-inclusive density functional approximations provide accurate energy predictions, though their atomic van der Waals forces differ in magnitude and orientation. Contrarily, semiempirical methods and empirical force fields require improvements in capturing non-covalent interactions (NCIs) for out-of-equilibrium geometries. The wide span of NCIs, highly accurate interaction energies, and analysis of molecular properties take QUID beyond the “gold standard” for QM benchmarks of ligand-protein systems.

Puleva, Mirela [University of Luxembourg, Luxembou↗
DOE OSTI2024

Test and Validate Distributed Coaxial Cable Sensors for in situ Condition Monitoring of Coal-Fired Boiler Tubes

This project aims to test, validate, and advance the technology readiness level (from TRL5 to TRL7) of a novel low-cost distributed stainless-steel/ceramic coaxial cable sensing (SSC-CCS) technology for in situ monitoring of the boiler tube temperature in existing coal-fired power plants. The novel SSC-CCS sensing technology and associated condition-based monitoring (CBM) software to be demonstrated in this project will lead to an improved understanding of the boiler tube failure mechanisms and a prognostic system to improve the overall performance, reliability, and flexibility of the nation’s coal-fired power plant fleet. A boiler tube monitoring system with distributed coaxial cable temperature sensors and a sensor acquisition system was constructed. The high-temperature coaxial cable sensor with a length of 1.3m was made by using a quartz tube (1mm inner diameter (ID) and 6mm outer diameter (OD)) to concentrically separate a 304 stainless-steel (SS) rod (1mm OD) and SS tube (7.94mm OD and 6.16mm ID). The sensor acquisition system includes a vector network analyzer (VNA), a radio frequency (RF) power amplifier, multiple switches and a USB hub. The distributed stainless-steel quartz coaxial cable sensor (SSQ-CCS) had a linear response to temperature with a resolution uncertainty of σ = 0.77℃. To withstand the harsh conditions of 3,300 steam pressures and 800℃ high temperatures, the sensor was shielded by a protective tube made of the same material as the boiler tube. The protection tube had an OD of 1.5 inches and a thickness of 0.25 inches. In the laboratory tests, the sensor showed good sensitivity and fast response. The drift was bounded between +0.33% and -0.67% during a test at 600℃ for 350 hours, indicating good stability of the sensor. A field test was conducted where four sensors were welded on four superheat tubes (SH-Ts) at a coal-fired power station over 400 days. Conventional thermocouples were welded to the superheater tubes alongside the coaxial cable sensors for the purpose of comparison. Two sensors were capable of distributed sensing, with three multiplexed sensing sections. The other two sensors were single section. During the 400-day test period, the power plant experienced startups and shutdowns. At the steady state operations, the temperature of the boiler tube is about 600℃ (1112°F). The sensors recorded the entire coal-firing processes (start-up, steady state, and shut-down) and the glitch event. A GSM modem and a Watchdog were added to the system to ensure reliable data recording. The GSM modem sent daily messages to plant managers and Clemson team to inform the status of the sensor system. If the system was not normally working, the Watchdog would reboot the system automatically. The new coaxial cable based distributed sensing technology has been proven to be successful in both laboratory and field tests. A comprehensive four-stage multi-physics computational framework has been developed to assist the design, optimization, installation, and operation of SSQ-CCS. With the consideration of various operation conditions, we predict the distributions of flue gas temperatures within coal-fired boilers, the temperature correlation between the boiler tube and SSQ-CCS, and the safety of SSQ-CCS. A conditional-based monitoring system is implemented as well. The computational framework developed in this work can guide the future operation of coal-fired plants and other power plants for the safety prediction of boiler operations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM): A Framework for Community-Driven Energy Resilience (Final Technical Report)

The Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM) project integrates community-based participatory research (CBPR) approaches into energy resilience planning. The combination of qualitative, community-driven data and quantitative utility data improves both the effectiveness and efficiency of assessing the impacts of disruptions to energy infrastructure. Centered around a metric of critical services access, RCM created a repeatable framework for evaluating and modeling energy resilience in communities and promoted community engagement, resulting in more equitable stakeholder participation and improved decision-making processes for siting infrastructure to improve community energy resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗