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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

19-LW-045 Full Length Final Report. Molecular Mechanisms of Bacterial Pathogenesis: Waging the Arms Race with Superbugs

As the current global pandemic makes abundantly clear, we need a better understanding of infectious disease to safeguard human health, the economy and global security. Modern omics techniques hold the promise of providing a comprehensive understanding of the molecular mechanisms of life, including causes of pathogenesis from infectious disease at the molecular level, but we there is a serious gap in annotation of gene function. For as much as half of the genes and gene products encoded in genomes the molecular and/or cellular function is unknown or only partially understood. Recent innovations in fluorescence microscopy for live cell imaging and genetic engineering make it possible to determine the temporal correlation between molecular events, such as a gene being expressed due to host-pathogen interaction, and cellular events, such as bacterial invasion of immune cells. This is turn allows us to gain new insight as to the molecular and cellular role of individual genes and will enable the discovery and validation of new molecular mechanisms essential for infectious disease. Knowing the molecular mechanisms of disease processes will provide new therapeutic targets or novel countermeasure strategies. We aimed to develop a lattice light sheet fluorescence microscope as a unique resource at LLNL for long time course live cell imaging experiments; to develop the reagents and cell lines needed to monitor molecular events during the course pathogenic bacteria infecting mammalian immune cells; and to demonstrate that we could capture molecular events during an infection. We fully commissioned the LLNL lattice light sheet microscope and conducted initial proof of principle imaging experiments on mammalian immune cells and pathogenic bacteria. It is clear from the experience gained that long time course live cell imaging has tremendous potential to help elucidate molecular mechanisms of host-pathogen interactions and to help annotate gene function, which would establish a basis for new countermeasures. It is also clear that if live cell imaging is to realize its full potential new data processing and analysis tools will need to be developed to facilitate analysis of molecular events within cells; new sample chambers and stages could facilitate studies with a wider range of cell and tissue types; and alternative molecular tagging methods need to be explored to enable more facile engineering of cells labeled with molecular specificity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Differential Equations That Model Diseases

In this brief tutorial, I will describe the simplest way of modeling a deadly infectious disease, such as COVID-19. I will show that at early times, the disease grows exponentially, but at late times, falls off like a Bell curve. I will solve the equations numerically with Python. A common mathematical model is the so-called compartmental model, where diseases can move people between "categories" such as healthy, infectious, or truly sick. This is a large, well established field and there are many good resources on this topic. I started with the SIAM review article The mathematics of infectious diseases. However, there are many excellent textbooks and more modern reviews as well.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Digital Biosurveillance for Zoonotic Disease Detection in Kenya

Infectious disease surveillance is crucial for early detection and situational awareness of disease outbreaks. Digital biosurveillance monitors large volumes of open-source data to flag potential health threats. This study investigates the potential of digital surveillance in the detection of the top five priority zoonotic diseases in Kenya: Rift Valley fever (RVF), anthrax, rabies, brucellosis, and trypanosomiasis. Open-source disease events reported between August 2016 and October 2020 were collected and key event-specific information was extracted using a newly developed disease event taxonomy. A total of 424 disease reports encompassing 55 unique events belonging to anthrax (43.6%), RVF (34.6%), and rabies (21.8%) were identified. Most events were first reported by news media (78.2%) followed by international health organizations (16.4%). News media reported the events 4.1 (±4.7) days faster than the official reports. There was a positive association between official reporting and RVF events (odds ratio (OR) 195.5, 95% confidence interval (CI); 24.01–4756.43, p < 0.001) and a negative association between official reporting and local media coverage of events (OR 0.03, 95% CI; 0.00–0.17, p = 0.030). This study highlights the usefulness of local news in the detection of potentially neglected zoonotic disease events and the importance of digital biosurveillance in resource-limited settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discovery of a Natural Product That Binds to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Protein Rv1466 Using Native Mass Spectrometry

Elucidation of the mechanism of action of compounds with cellular bioactivity is important for progressing compounds into future drug development. In recent years, phenotype-based drug discovery has become the dominant approach to drug discovery over target-based drug discovery, which relies on the knowledge of a specific drug target of a disease. Still, when targeting an infectious disease via a high throughput phenotypic assay it is highly advantageous to identifying the compound’s cellular activity. A fraction derived from the plant Polyalthia sp. showed activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis at 62.5 μge/μL. A known compound, altholactone, was identified from this fraction that showed activity towards M. tuberculosis at an minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 64 μM. Retrospective analysis of a target-based screen against a TB proteome panel using native mass spectrometry established that the active fraction was bound to the mycobacterial protein Rv1466 with an estimated pseudo-Kd of 42.0 ± 6.1 µM. Our findings established Rv1466 as the potential molecular target of altholactone, which is responsible for the observed in vivo toxicity towards M. tuberculosis .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Influenza A Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a high risk biological agent, classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Orthomyxoviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Influenza A virus [NCBITAXON:11320] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750] and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to MERS-CoV Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Coronaviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific MERS-CoV [NCBITAXON:1335626] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750], human bronchial epithelial cells ["Calu-3 clone 2B4"; BTO:0002022], primary human fibroblasts ["FB"; BTO:0000452], primary human airway epithelial cells ["HAE"; BTO:0005571], human microvascular endothelial cells ["HMVE"; BTO:0003123], and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

Background: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. Methods and findings: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. Conclusions: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

PNNL DataHub NIAID Program Project: Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections, Multi-Omic Viral Dataset Catalog Collection

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) "Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections" program project was a highly integrated and comprehensive systems biology research core, funded by the National Institute of Health (U19AI106772) from 2013-06-01 to 2018-05-31, investigating the complex host response to category A, B, and C priority pathogen infections. Resulting project deliverables include an extensive comprehensive collections of linked primary and secondary transformation viral experimental infection data. Here we provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open access to viral Omics lifecycle datasets and project metadata. Using a highly integrated and multidisciplinary approach, linked primary data and metadata supporting secondary normalization datasets, provide critical information necessary for research reproducibility and long-term preservation. Enabling on-demand data access for research community consumption and developer reuse, serves to support new mechanistic insights and discoveries into host-pathogen interactions for aiding future biohazard data preparedness efforts in emergency response to global health crises involving viral infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Ebola Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Ebola virus (EBOV) is high risk biological agent, classified as a Category A priority pathogen (Flaviviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), known to cause hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Ebola virus [NCBITAXON:186536] (Zaire/Makona or Zaire/Mayinga) experimental infection study. Human host samples types include peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from blood plasma ["PBMC", BTO:0001025], human hepatoma carcinoma cells ["HUH", BTO:0001950], human umbilical vein endothelial cells ["HUVEC", BTO:0001949], immortalized human hepatocyte cells ["IHH", BTO:0006147], and human histiocytic lymphoma cells ["U937", BTO:0001412].

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to West Nile Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

West Nile virus (WNV) is classified as a Category B priority pathogen (mosquito-borne Flavivirus) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and are known to cause severe infections in humans where lethal host-associated mechanisms are not clearly defined. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013 - 2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding a specific West Nile virus [NCBITAXON:11082] (WNV-NY99 382) experimental infection study. Host sample types include cerebellum ["CB", BTO:0000232], cortical neurons ["CN", BTO:0004102], cortex ["CT", BTO:0000233], dendritic cells ["DC", BTO:0002042], granule cell neurons ["GCN", BTO:0003393], lymph node ["LN", BTO:0000784], and serum ["SE", BTO:0001239] from mouse (Mus musculus) tissue collections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring in Wastewater Reveals Novel Variants and Biomarkers of Infection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a popular tool for the early indication of community spread of infectious diseases. WBE emerged as an effective tool during the COVID-19 pandemic and has provided meaningful information to minimize the spread of infection. Here, we present a combination of analyses using the correlation of viral gene copies with clinical cases, sequencing of wastewater-derived RNA for the viral mutants, and correlative analyses of the viral gene copies with the bacterial biomarkers. Our study provides a unique platform for potentially using the WBE-derived results to predict the spread of COVID-19 and the emergence of new variants of concern. Further, we observed a strong correlation between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and changes in the microbial community of wastewater, particularly the significant changes in bacterial genera belonging to the families of Lachnospiraceae and Actinomycetaceae . Our study shows that microbial biomarkers could be utilized as prediction tools for future infectious disease surveillance and outbreak responses. Overall, our comprehensive analyses of viral spread, variants, and novel bacterial biomarkers will add significantly to the growing body of literature on WBE and COVID-19.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Social Media, Syndromic Surveillance, and Microbiologic Acute Respiratory Infection Data: Observational Study

Internet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study. This study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset. This study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users’ tweets. Of 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants’ tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P≤.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P≤.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19). To our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗