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Tidal Prediction

Tides are the most predictable of oceanographic phenomena, due both to the simplicity and predictability of the astronomical forcing and to the near linearity of the ocean's dynamical response. In the classical and simplest scenario, tidal prediction is based on harmonic analysis of past measurements at a fixed location. Limits to predictability arise because isolated astronomical spectral lines are broadened into "cusps" of incoherent energy, for example through interactions with non-tidal flows. Tidal prediction at locations without past measurements has historically been a major challenge, but, owing to near-global observations of modern satellite altimeters, the empirical harmonic approach now yields reasonably accurate predictions throughout most of the open ocean. Advances in numerical modeling and data assimilation allow these predictions to be refined (especially in shallow seas where observations remain insufficient to directly constrain tidal wave structure) and extended to include tidal currents. We review recent progress in the development of global and regional-scale tidal prediction capabilities, summarize accuracy of available charts, and briefly consider outstanding issues. Satellite altimetry has also helped unravel the global tidal energy budget and has clarified the role of internal tides as a sink of tidal energy. We summarize these results, and then turn to the challenging problem of predicting internal tides. To the extent that low modes remain coherent with the surface tide, elevations can be directly mapped. We review current efforts in this direction, which are already producing charts with predictive capability. However, internal tides (especially higher modes) interact much more strongly with lower-frequency ocean flows, so a significant fraction of this tidal signal is intermittent and incoherent. We close with a brief review of ongoing efforts to model global tides in combination with wind-forced ocean motions.

Harmonic Constants↗

Recurrence in truncated Boussinesq models for nonlinear waves in shallow water

The rapid spatial recurrence of weakly nonlinear and weakly dispersive progressive shallow-water waves is examined using a numerical integration technique on the discretized and truncated form of the Boussinesq equations. This study primarily examines recurrence in wave fields with Ursell number O(1) and characterizes the sensitivity of recurrence to initial spectral shape and number of allowed frequency modes. It is shown that the rapid spatial recurrence is not an inherent property of the considered Boussinesq systems for evolution distances of 10-50 wavelengths. The main result of the study is that highly truncated Boussinesq models of resonant shallow-water ocean surface gravity waves predict rapid multiple recurrence cycles, but that this is an artifact dependent on the number of allowed modes. For initial conditions consisting of essentially all energy concentrated in a single mode, damping of the recurrence cycles increases as the number of low-power background modes increases. When more than 32 modes are allowed, the recurrence behavior is relatively insensitive to the number of allowed modes.

Elgar, Steve↗

Further study of terrain effects on the mesoscale spectrum of atmospheric motions

Wind and temperature data collected on commercial airliners are used to investigate the effects of underlying terrain on mesoscale variability. These results expand upon those of Nastrom et al., by including all available data from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) and by more closely focusing on the coupling of variance with the roughness of the underlying terrain over mountainous regions. The earlier results, showing that variances are larger over mountains than over oceans or plains, with greatest increases at wavelengths below about 80 km, are confirmed. Statistical tests are used to confirm that these differences are highly significant. Over mountainous regions the roughness of the underlying terrain was parameterized from topographic data and it was found that variances are highly correlated with roughness and, in the troposphere, with background windspeed. Average variances over the roughest terrain areas range up to about ten times larger than those over the oceans. These results are found to follow the scaling with stability predicted in the framework of linenar gravity wave theory. The implications of these results for vertical transports of momentum and energy, assuming they are due to gravity waves and considering the effects of intermittency and anisotroy, are also discussed.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

Ocean Turbulence, III: New GISS Vertical Mixing Scheme

We have found a new way to express the solutions of the RSM (Reynolds Stress Model) equations that allows us to present the turbulent diffusivities for heat, salt and momentum in a way that is considerably simpler and thus easier to implement than in previous work. The RSM provides the dimensionless mixing efficiencies Gamma-alpha (alpha stands for heat, salt and momentum). However, to compute the diffusivities, one needs additional information, specifically, the dissipation Epsilon. Since a dynamic equation for the latter that includes the physical processes relevant to the ocean is still not available, one must resort to different sources of information outside the RSM to obtain a complete Mixing Scheme usable in OGCMs. As for the RSM results, we show that the Gamma-alpha s are functions of both Ri and Rq (Richardson number and density ratio representing double diffusion, DD); the Gamma-alpha are different for heat, salt and momentum; in the case of heat, the traditional value Gamma-h = 0.2 is valid only in the presence of strong shear (when DD is inoperative) while when shear subsides, NATRE data show that Gamma-h can be three times as large, a result that we reproduce. The salt Gamma-s is given in terms of Gamma-h. The momentum Gamma-m has thus far been guessed with different prescriptions while the RSM provides a well defined expression for Gamma-m(Ri,R-rho). Having tested Gamma-h, we then test the momentum Gamma-m by showing that the turbulent Prandtl number Gamma-m/Gamma-h vs. Ri reproduces the available data quite well. As for the dissipation epsilon, we use different representations, one for the mixed layer (ML), one for the thermocline and one for the ocean;s bottom. For the ML, we adopt a procedure analogous to the one successfully used in PB (planetary boundary layer) studies; for the thermocline, we employ an expression for the variable epsilon/N(exp 2) from studies of the internal gravity waves spectra which includes a latitude dependence; for the ocean bottom, we adopt the enhanced bottom diffusivity expression used by previous authors but with a state of the art internal tidal energy formulation and replace the fixed Gamma-alpha = 0.2 with the RSM result that brings into the problem the Ri, R-rho dependence of the Gamma-alpha; the unresolved bottom drag, which has thus far been either ignored or modeled with heuristic relations, is modeled using a formalism we previously developed and tested in PBL studies. We carried out several tests without an OGCM. Prandtl and flux Richardson numbers vs. Ri. The RSM model reproduces both types of data satisfactorily. DD and Mixing efficiency Gamma-h(Ri,Rq). The RSM model reproduces well the NATRE data. Bimodal epsilon-distribution. NATRE data show that epsilon (Ri < 1) approximately equals 10epsilon(Ri > 1), which our model reproduces. Heat to salt flux ratio. In the Ri much greater than 1 regime, the RSM predictions reproduce the data satisfactorily. NATRE mass diffusivity. The z-profile of the mass diffusivity reproduces well the measurements at NATRE. The local form of the mixing scheme is algebraic with one cubic equation to solve.

Canuto, V. M.↗

NASA’s Orion Crew Module Seakeeping Simulation and Test Comparisons in Ocean Wave Environments

The NASA Orion Crew Module (CM) post-landing seakeeping and uprighting capabilities are being evaluated across a variety of ocean wave conditions. This paper provides an overview of quarter-scale and full-scale test data and how it compares with the CM seakeeping dynamic simulation results evaluated using Wave Energy Convertor Simulator (WEC-Sim).This includes a discussion of the status of the dynamic modeling effort, correlation of model inputs with the wave field from the test, and a comparison of the results against the physical test data with emphasis on the full-scale results. Analysis in the frequency domain showed similar response characteristics between the model and the test and shows energy peaks corresponding to both the natural response and the forced response due to the wave environment. Time domain comparisons showed that the linear WEC-Sim model under predicted the amplitude of the pitch and roll motion of the test article, with improved matching for smaller, longer crested waves. An attempt was made to correlate the pitch/roll response to incident wave slope to account for a possible delay in the BTA’s response. The results did not show a strong relationship in the response characteristics to incident wave slope, but better correlation was seen by comparing responses in the frequency domain. Evaluation of the simulation’s ability to match test results aided in understanding the current fidelity of the CM model in WEC-Sim and identifying areas for model improvement

Abigail Lockard↗

Modeling of Wind Direction Signals in Polarimetric Sea Surface Brightness Temperatures

Sea surface brightness temperatures are the radiometric power measure of blackbody radiation from sea water. This radiation is the electromagnetic waves excited by the random thermal motion of charged particles in the sea water. The energy transmitted through the air- water interface produces a scattering of electromagnetic waves into the atmosphere. Polarimetric microwave emissions are investigated.

ocean wind remote sensing polarimetric microwave r↗

Observation of Sea Ice Surface Thermal States Under Cloud Cover

Clouds interfere with the distribution of short-wave and long-wave radiations over sea ice, and thereby strongly affect the surface energy balance in polar regions. To evaluate the overall effects of clouds on climatic feedback processes in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, the challenge is to observe sea ice surface thermal states under both clear sky and cloudy conditions. From laboratory experiments, we show that C-band radar (transparent to clouds) backscatter is very sensitive to the surface temperature of first-year sea ice. The effect of sea ice surface temperature on the magnitude of backscatter change depends on the thermal regimes of sea ice thermodynamic states. For the temperature range above the mirabilite (Na2SO4.10H20) crystallization point (-8.2 C), C-band data show sea ice backscatter changes by 8-10 dB for incident angles from 20 to 35 deg at both horizontal and vertical polarizations. For temperatures below the mirabilite point but above the crystallization point of MgCl2.8H2O (-18.0 C), relatively strong backwater changes between 4-6 dB are observed. These backscatter changes correspond to approximately 8 C change in temperature for both cases. The backscattering mechanism is related to the temperature which determines the thermodynamic distribution of brine volume in the sea ice surface layer. The backscatter is positively correlated to temperature and the process is reversible with thermodynamic variations such as diurnal insolation effects. From two different dates in May 1993 with clear and overcast conditions determined by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), concurrent Earth Resources Satellite 1 (ERS-1) C-band ice observed with increases in backscatter over first-year sea ice, and verified by increases in in-situ sea ice surface temperatures measured at the Collaborative-Interdisciplinary Cryosphere Experiment (C-ICE) site.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

Extreme waves in the Agulhas - A case study in wave-current interaction

SIR data obtained in October 1984 off the South African coast are analyzed. The analysis of the derived ocean-wave slope spectra reveals the presence of two wave systems: a swell field from the SW of about 190 m wavelength and a swell out of the SE with a wavelength of about 220 m. An observed increase in wave energy along the northern edge of the Agulhas, caused by the propagation of the 190 m wave system opposite to that of the Agulhas Current, is studied by modeling the interaction of a wave with an opposite current. The role of refraction in the energy intensification is discussed. The effects of currrent curvature on the trajectory of the wave group and of meandering on a uniform wave field are investigated. A possible mechanism for the generation of extreme waves is proposed.

Irvine, David E.↗

Submerged AUV Charging Station

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are becoming increasingly important for military surveillance and mine detection. Most AUVs are battery powered and have limited lifetimes of a few days to a few weeks. This greatly limits the distance that AUVs can travel underwater. Using a series of submerged AUV charging stations, AUVs could travel a limited distance to the next charging station, recharge its batteries, and continue to the next charging station, thus traveling great distances in a relatively short time, similar to the Old West “Pony Express.” One solution is to use temperature differences at various depths in the ocean to produce electricity, which is then stored in a submerged battery. It is preferred to have the upper buoy submerged a reasonable distance below the surface, so as not to be seen from above and not to be inadvertently destroyed by storms or ocean going vessels. In a previous invention, a phase change material (PCM) is melted (expanded) at warm temperatures, for example, 15 °C, and frozen (contracted) at cooler temperatures, for example, 8 °C. Tubes containing the PCM, which could be paraffin such as pentadecane, would be inserted into a container filled with hydraulic oil. When the PCM is melted (expanded), it pushes the oil out into a container that is pressurized to about 3,000 psi (approx equals 20.7 MPa). When a valve is opened, the high-pressure oil passes through a hydraulic motor, which turns a generator and charges a battery. The low-pressure oil is finally reabsorbed into the PCM canister when the PCM tubes are frozen (contracted). Some of the electricity produced could be used to control an external bladder or a motor to the tether line, such that depth cycling is continued for a very long period of time. Alternatively, after the electricity is generated by the hydraulic motor, the exiting low-pressure oil from the hydraulic motor could be vented directly to an external bladder on the AUV, such that filling of the bladder causes the AUV to rise, and emptying of the bladder allows the AUV to descend. This type of direct buoyancy control is much more energy efficient than using electrical pumps in that the inefficiencies of converting thermal energy to electrical energy to mechanical energy is avoided. AUV charging stations have been developed that use electricity produced by waves on floating buoys and that use electricity from solar photovoltaics on floating buoys. This is the first device that has absolutely no floating or visible parts, and is thus impervious to storms, inadvertent ocean vessel collisions, or enemy sabotage.

Jones, Jack A.↗

Observations of wind-forced deep ocean currents in the North Pacific

The role of the quasi-steady Sverdrup balance in the midlatitude atmospheric response in the North Pacific was investigated by examining 200 instrument-years of moored current measurements in the deep ocean across the breadth of the midlatitude North Pacific. These data provide evidence of a seasonal modulation in the ocean eddy kinetic energy beneath the thermocline at several locations north of 35 deg N, which was often found to be in phase with the local atmospheric forcing function. Results of the measurements indicate that, throughout the midlatitude North Pacific, topography plays a crucial role in the wind forced response; the bottom slope tends to enhance the beta effect in this basin. Topography narrows the available bandwidth for forced barotropic Rossby waves, facilitating a quasi-steady topographic Sverdrup response over most of the basin. However, the enhanced beta effect reduces the magnitude of the ocean's response to wind forcing.

Koblinsky, C. J.↗

Impact of an asteroid or comet in the ocean and extinction of terrestrial life

Finite difference calculations describing the impact mechanics associated with a 10 to 30 km diameter silicate or water object impacting a 5 km deep ocean overlying a silicate solid planet demonstrate that from 12 to 15% of the bolide energy resides in the water. It is speculated that minimal global tsunami run-up heights on the continents would be 300-400 meters, and that such waves would inundate all low altitude continental areas, and strip and silt-over virtually all vegetation. As a result the terrestrial animal food chain would be seriously perturbed. This could in turn cause extinction of large terrestrial animals.

Ahrens, T. J.↗

Proposed law of nature linking impacts, plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles to terrestrial vertebrate mass extinctions via greenhouse-embryo death coupling

A greenhouse-physiological coupling killing mechanism active among mammals, birds, and reptiles has been identified. Operating via environmental thermal effects upon the maternal core-skin blood flow critical to the survival and development of embryos, it reduces the flow of blood to the uterine tract. Today, during hot summers, this phenomena kills embryos on a vast, global scale. Because of sensitivity of many mammals to modern heat, a major modern greenhouse could reduce population numbers on a global scale, and potentially trigger population collapses in the more vulnerable parts of the world. In the geological past, the killing mechanism has likely been triggered into action by greenhouse warming via impact events, plume volcanism, and Earth orbital variations (Milankovitch cycles). Earth's biosphere is maintained and molded by the flow of energy from the solar energy source to Earth and on to the space energy sink (SES). This SES energy flow maintains Earth's biosphere and its living components, as open, intermediate, dissipative, nonequilibrium systems whose states are dependent upon the rate of energy flowing through them. Greenhouse gases such as CO2 in the atmosphere influence the SES energy flow rate. Steady-state flow is necessary for global ecological stability (autopoiesis). Natural fluctuations of the C cycle such as rapid releases of CO2 from the mantle, or oceans, disrupt steady-state SES flow. These fluctuations constantly challenge the biosphere; slowdown of SES energy flow drives it toward thermodynamical equilibrium and stagnation. Fluctuations induced by impact event, mantle plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles can grow into structure-breaking waves triggering major perturbations of Earth's C cycle and mass extinctions. A major C cycle perturbation involves readjustment of the outer physiochemical spheres of the Earth: the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere; and by necessity, the biosphere. A greenhouse, one manifestation of a major C cycle perturbation, is the most dangerous natural phenomenon that life on Earth can experience. Greenhouse conditions existed during the KT mass extinctions of 65 m.y. ago, and the Pleistocene-Holocene (P-H) mammalian extinctions of 10,000-12,000 yr ago. Coupling climatology to reproductive physiology via effects of ambient air temperature upon uterine blood flow to developing embryos accounts for the extinctions via established physiological principles.

Mclean, D. M.↗

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation in the Open Ocean and at Landfall

The sea surface directional wave spectrum was measured for the first time in all quadrants of a hurricane in open water using the NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 1.5 km height. The SRA measures the energetic portion of the directional wave spectrum by generating a topographic map of the sea surface. At 8 Hz, the SRA sweeps a radar beam of 1 E half-power width (two-way) across the aircraft ground track over a swath equal to 0.8 of the aircraft height, simultaneously measuring the backscattered power at its 36 GHz (8.3 mm) operating frequency and the range to the sea surface at 64 positions. These slant ranges are multiplied by the cosine of the incidence angles to determine the vertical distances from the aircraft to the sea surface. Subtracting these distances from the aircraft height produces the sea surface elevation map. The sea surface topography is interpolated to a uniform grid, transformed by a two-dimensional FFT, and Doppler corrected. The open-ocean data were acquired on 24 August 1998 when hurricane Bonnie was east of the Bahamas and moving slowly to the north. Individual waves with heights up to 18 m were observed and the spatial variation of the wave field was dramatic. The dominant waves generally propagated at significant angles to the downwind direction. At some positions there were three different wave fields of comparable energy crossing each other. The NOAA aircraft spent over five hours within 180 km of the hurricane Bonnie eye, and made five eye penetrations. A 3-minute animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation over this period will be shown as well as summary plots of the wave field spatial variation. On 26 August 1998, the NOAA aircraft flew at 2.2 km height when hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC, documenting the directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft ground track included both segments along the shoreline and Pamlico Sound as well as far offshore. An animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall will be presented and contrasted with the spatial variation when Bonnie was in the open ocean on 24 August 1998.

Walsh, E. J.↗

Attenuation of stress waves in single and multi-layered structures

Analytical and experimental studies were made of the attenuation of the stress waves during passage through single and multilayer structures. The investigation included studies on elastic and plastic stress wave propagation in the composites and those on shock mitigating material characteristics such as dynamic stress-strain relations and energy absorbing properties. The results of the studies are applied to methods for reducing the stresses imposed on a spacecraft during planetary or ocean landings.

Yang, J. C. S.↗

Radar signal return from near-shore surface and shallow subsurface features, Darien Province, Panama

The AN/APQ-97 radar imagery over eastern Panama is analyzed. The imagery was directed toward extraction of geologic and engineering data and the establishment of operational parameters. Subsequent investigations emphasized landform identification and vegetation distribution. The parameters affecting the observed return signal strength from such features are considered. Near-shore ocean phenomena were analyzed. Tidal zone features such as mud flats and reefs were identified in the near range, but were not detectable in the far range. Surface roughness dictated the nature of reflected energy (specular or diffuse). In surf zones, changes in wave train orientation relative to look direction, the slope of the surface, and the physical character of the wave must be considered. It is concluded that the establishment of the areal extent of the tidal flats, distributary channels, and reefs is practical only in the near to intermediate range under minimal low tide conditions.

Hanson, B. C.↗

Wave evolution in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with on-site and remote data

The ocean-wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover were studied for waves in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (Limex), conducted off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR, wave buoy, and ice property data. Based on the wave number spectrum from SAR data, the concurrent wave frequency spectrum from ocean buoy data, and accelerometer data on the ice during Limex '87, the dispersion relation has been derived and compared with the model. Accelerometers were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack. Data from the accelerometers were used to estimate wave energy attenuation rates and compared with the model. The model-data comparisons are reasonably good for the ice conditions observed during Limex' 87.

Liu, A. K.↗

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 4: Cloud Retrievals in the PACE Mission: PACE Science Team Consensus Document

Earth is a complex dynamical system exhibiting continuous change in its atmosphere, ocean,and surface elements. Nearly all (99.97%) of the energy driving these systems is linked to the Sun. Measurements of reflected sunlight contain a unique signature of wavelength-specific scattering and absorption interactions occurring between incoming solar energy and atmospheric (molecules, aerosols,clouds) and surface features Clouds can affect significantly both shortwave and long wave radiation, depending on altitude/vertical structure, thermodynamic phase, and optical properties. Low, warm, and optically thick clouds predominantly have a cooling effect, while high, cold, optically thin clouds can cause warming by absorbing warmer radiation emitted from the surface and lower atmosphere.When the net difference between outgoing and incoming solar radiation is matched by the net infrared radiation emitted to space, the Earth's climate is in radiative balance. While radiative forcing components (GHGs, aerosols - direct and indirect) contribute to a net radiative imbalance, climate sensitivity is ultimately determined by the contribution of various system feed backs. The role of cloud feedback in a warming climate is currently the largest inter-model uncertainty in climate sensitivity and therefore in climate prediction [Bony and Dufresne 2005]. A comprehensive understanding of current cloud propertiesand dynamic/microphysical processes requires a global perspective from satellites.

Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE)↗

Selective decay hypothesis at high mechanical and magnetic Reynolds numbers

Implications of certain applications of turbulence theory to two-dimensional turbulence and magnetohydrodynamic flow are discussed. It is shown that the use of the Navier-Stokes equation (NSE) for measurements of turbulent fluctuations has been effective only for three-dimensional flows. For two-dimensional flows, used for the study of large-scale motions in the atmosphere or ocean, enstrophy is cascaded to high wave numbers and dissipated at a finite rate even at infinite Re. MHD flows are numerically calculated for the two-dimensional case and analytically for the three-dimensional case, for which discrepancies in the relative rates of energy and cross helicity decay lead to a recommendation that numerical calculations for the three-dimensional case be carried out to determine the precise decayed states.

Matthaeus, W. H.↗