Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Prediction algorithms”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Satellite-To-Satellite Imaging in Support of LEO Optical Navigation, Using the ASTERIA Cubesat

The Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) was a 6-unit CubeSat technology demonstration mission that was built at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and deployed from the International Space Station (ISS) on November 20th, 2017. After successfully completing its 90-day primary mission that demonstrated arcsecond-level line-of-sight pointing and focal plane thermal stability for exoplanet detection, it entered an extended mission performing onboard software demonstrations alongside science until end of mission in December 2019. At the end of its lifetime it was being used as a demonstration platform for several experiments, including low earth orbit (LEO) optical navigation operations. With its visible light astrometric camera and stable attitude control system, the ASTERIA spacecraft showed itself to be a capable platform for the imaging of geosynchronous satellites from LEO. This paper will describe the imagery attained in flight and also the image processing algorithms that were developed to render that imagery into navigation quality data. These algorithms dealt with hot pixel filtering, noise modeling, attitude registration, star signal rejection and satellite signal identification. Brightness prediction algorithms used for target selection will also be discussed.

Fesq, Lorraine

Modeling Uncertainty in Time and Fuel Benefit Estimation for TASAR Operational Evaluation

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests concept aims to reduce weather-induced delays, improve route efficiency, and efficiently share route modification options by combining onboard avionics data, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast data, and broadband internet data to generate optimal, traffic-compatible trajectory changes based on real-time traffic and weather data. Time and fuel benefits due to use of the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software can be estimated by taking the difference in predicted flight time and fuel usage before and after a TAP-inspired trajectory change is completed. Although TAP’s optimization algorithm predicts flight and fuel usage based on the current flight route and weather data, it does not account for possible air traffic controller-initiated trajectory changes, reroutes due to sudden weather changes, or other pilot/controller actions that may occur during flight. This paper introduces an approach for quantifying the uncertainty in estimated time and fuel benefits.

Burris, Joseph

The NASA Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS): Concept Demonstration Results and Future Direction

Since the late 1990s the national airspace system has been recognized as approaching a capacity crisis. In the light of this condition, industry, government, user organizations, and educational institutions have been working on procedural and technological solutions to the problem. One aspect of system operations that holds potential for improvement is the separation criteria applied to aircraft for wake vortex avoidance. These criteria, applied when operations are conducted under instrument flight rules (IFR), were designed to represent safe spacing under weather conditions conducive to the longest wake hazards. It is well understood that wake behavior is dependent on meteorological conditions as well as the physical parameters of the generating aircraft. Under many ambient conditions, such as moderate crosswinds or turbulence, wake hazard durations are substantially reduced. To realize this reduction NASA has developed a proof-of-concept Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS). Successfully demonstrated in a realtime field demonstration during July 2000 at the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW), AVOSS is a novel integration of weather sensors, wake sensors, and analytical wake prediction algorithms. AVOSS provides dynamic wake separation criteria that are a function of the ambient weather conditions for a particular airport, and the predicted wake behavior under those conditions. Wake sensing subsystems provide safety checks and validation for the predictions. The AVOSS was demonstrated in shadow mode; no actual spacing changes were applied to aircraft. This paper briefly reviews the system architecture and operation, reports the latest performance results from the DFW deployment, and describes the future direction of the project.

Rutishauser, David K.

A Battery Health Monitoring Framework for Planetary Rovers

Batteries have seen an increased use in electric ground and air vehicles for commercial, military, and space applications as the primary energy source. An important aspect of using batteries in such contexts is battery health monitoring. Batteries must be carefully monitored such that the battery health can be determined, and end of discharge and end of usable life events may be accurately predicted. For planetary rovers, battery health estimation and prediction is critical to mission planning and decision-making. We develop a model-based approach utilizing computaitonally efficient and accurate electrochemistry models of batteries. An unscented Kalman filter yields state estimates, which are then used to predict the future behavior of the batteries and, specifically, end of discharge. The prediction algorithm accounts for possible future power demands on the rover batteries in order to provide meaningful results and an accurate representation of prediction uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on a set of lithium-ion batteries powering a rover at NASA.

prediction

Resolution requirements for a soil moisture imaging radar

Image simulation techniques were employed to establish the relationship between spatial resolution and the accuracy of soil moisture estimated by an imaging radar. A spaceborne synthetic aperture radar at an orbital altitude of 600 km, operating at 4.5 GHz with HH polarization configuration and covering a ground swath width of 143 km corresponding to an angle of incidence range extending between 7-22 degrees relative to the vertical, provided the images simulated by a 17.7 km x 19.3 km test site. The role of resolution was evaluated by simulating various sets of images with resolutions ranging from 20 m x 20 m to 1 km x 1 km. Each simulated image was subjected to a soil moisture prediction algorithm whose input is limited to the image intensity level. Results show that the 1 km x 1 km resolution provides the best prediction accuracy for most soil moisture distributions except for drought-like conditions for which the 100 m x 100 m resolution is found to be preferred. In general it was found that the soil moisture of about 90% of the pixels is predicted with an error of + or - 20% of field capacity or less.

Dobson, C.

Kalman Filtering USNO's GPS Observations for Improved Time Transfer Predictions

The Global Positioning System (GPS) Master Control Station (MCS) performs the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) time transfer mission by uploading and broadcasting predictions of the GPS-UTC offset in subframe 4 of the GS navigation message. These predictions are based on only two successive daily data points obtained from the US Naval Observatory (USNO). USNO produces these daily smoothed data points by performing a least-squares fit on roughly 38 hours worth of data from roughly 160 successive 13-minute tracks of GPS satellites. Though sufficient for helping to maintain a time transfer error specification of 28 ns (1 Sigma), the MCS's prediction algorithm does not make the best use of the available data from from USNO, and produces data that can degrade quickly over extended prediction spans. This paper investigates how, by applying Kalman filtering to the same available tracking data, the MCS could improve its estimate of GPS-UTC, and in particular, the GPS-UTC A(sub 1) term. By refining the A(sub 1) (frequency) estimate for GPS-UTC predictions, error in GPS time transfer could drop significantly. Additional, the risk of future spikes in GPS's time transfer error could similarly be minimized, by employing robust Kalman filtering for GPS-UTC predictions.

Hutsell, Steven T.

Development of an Aircraft Approach and Departure Atmospheric Profile Generation Algorithm

In support of NASA Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) project, an effort was initiated to develop and test techniques for extracting meteorological data from landing and departing aircraft, and for building altitude based profiles for key meteorological parameters from these data. The generated atmospheric profiles will be used as inputs to NASA s Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOLSS) Prediction Algorithm (APA) for benefits and trade analysis. A Wake Vortex Advisory System (WakeVAS) is being developed to apply weather and wake prediction and sensing technologies with procedures to reduce current wake separation criteria when safe and appropriate to increase airport operational efficiency. The purpose of this report is to document the initial theory and design of the Aircraft Approach Departure Atmospheric Profile Generation Algorithm.

Buck, Bill K.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Mon, G. R.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Mon, G. R.

Predicting Real-Time Safety of the National Airspace System

To gain the situational awareness necessary for informed decision making regarding avoidance of airspace hazards, each operator must consolidate operations-relevant information from disparate sources and apply extensive domain knowledge to correctly interpret not just the current state of the NAS but forecast its (combined) evolution over the duration of the operation. This time- and workload-intensive process is periodically repeated throughout the operation so that changes can be managed in a timely manner.The imprecision, inaccuracies, inconsistency, and incompleteness of the incoming data further challenges the process. To facilitate informed decision making, this paper presents a model-based framework for the textitautomated real-time monitoring and prediction of possible effects of airspace hazards on the safety of the National Airspace System (NAS). First, hazards to flight are identified and transformed into sms, that is, quantities of interest that could be evaluated based on available data and are predictive of an unsafe event. The sms and associated thresholds that specify when an event transitions from emphsafe to emphunsafe are combined with models of airspace operations and aircraft dynamics. The framework can include any hazard to flight that can be modeled quantitatively. Models can be detailed and complex, or they can be considerably simplifed, as appropriate to the application. Real-time NAS safety monitoring and prediction begins with an estimate of the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, we can then predict the evolution of the NAS - the future state - and the occurrence of hazards and unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace sms is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type andor parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach through a simulated scenario in which we predict the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress. Predictions accounting for common sources of uncertainty are included and it is shown how the predictions improve in time, become more confident, and change dynamically as new information is made available to the prediction algorithm.

safety

Real-Time Prediction of Safety Margins in the National Airspace

Underlying all operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) is the concept of safety. Safety, as defined by acceptable levels of risk, is to be maintained at all times. The real-time safety monitoring (RTSM) framework is under development to provide an automated system to quantify safety in the NAS, estimate the current level of safety, and predict the future evolution of safety and the occurrence of events that pose an increased risk to flights so that these occurrences can be managed strategically rather than mitigated reactively. This paper presents the mathematical framework, the models, and the monitoring and prediction algorithms used to achieve this. RTSM computes safety as expressed through a set of safety margins based on user-defined safety metrics, thresolds, and events. Sources of uncertainty are modeled and propagated through the predictions in order to compute the probabilistic evolution of safety and the probability of events that introduce increased risk to operations. A prototype implementation is discussed and results demonstrating feasibility are presented. The results highlight the kinds of predictions that can be computed and the fidelity that is currently achieved.

national airspace system

Model-Based Prognostics

This tutorial will cover the basics of model-based prognostics, and include concepts such as modeling approaches, estimation and prediction algorithms, and how uncertainty is represented and quantified. Other topics covered will include structural model decomposition, system-level prognostics, prognostics of hybrid systems, and distributed prognostics. Several case studies, such as water recovery systems to the prediction of safety margins in the national airspace system will be used to explain different concepts of prognostics and demonstrate their application to real-world systems.

Roychoudhury, Indranil

Interpolation of a surface from sets of discrete height data of different statistical characteristics

This paper presents and analyzes a method for the interpolation of a unique surface from two sets of independent digital height data of differing statistical characteristics. This method is based on linear prediction and thus relies on the concepts of auto- and cross-covariance functions. The linear prediction algorithm for two sets of digital height measurements is first derived and then evaluated using the method of moving averages and bilinear interpolation for comparison. It is found that the overall root mean square interpolation errors of linear prediction are similar to those from moving averages and bilinear interpolation. This accuracy performance, together with the well known potential for controlled filtering of measuring errors and good-behavior in areas of poor control, makes linear prediction a versatile and general method for interpolating a unique surface from two sets of digital height data, with applications in photogrammetric mapping, remote sensing, and other fields.

Leberl, F.

Physics-of-Failure Approach to Prognostics

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of the electrical components present in the system. In case of electric vehicles, computing remaining battery charge is safety-critical. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. In this presentation our approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator for different electronic components is presented which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to determine state-of-charge and estimate remaining useful life of respective components. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

Modeling pilot interaction with automated digital avionics systems: Guidance and control algorithms for contour and nap-of-the-Earth flight

A collection of technical papers are presented that cover modeling pilot interaction with automated digital avionics systems and guidance and control algorithms for contour and nap-of-the-earth flight. The titles of the papers presented are as follows: (1) Automation effects in a multiloop manual control system; (2) A qualitative model of human interaction with complex dynamic systems; (3) Generalized predictive control of dynamic systems; (4) An application of generalized predictive control to rotorcraft terrain-following flight; (5) Self-tuning generalized predictive control applied to terrain-following flight; and (6) Precise flight path control using a predictive algorithm.

Hess, Ronald A.

Improved Regression Analysis of Temperature-Dependent Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An improved approach is discussed that may be used to directly include first and second order temperature effects in the load prediction algorithm of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance. The improved approach was designed for the Iterative Method that fits strain-gage outputs as a function of calibration loads and uses a load iteration scheme during the wind tunnel test to predict loads from measured gage outputs. The improved approach assumes that the strain-gage balance is at a constant uniform temperature when it is calibrated and used. First, the method introduces a new independent variable for the regression analysis of the balance calibration data. The new variable is designed as the difference between the uniform temperature of the balance and a global reference temperature. This reference temperature should be the primary calibration temperature of the balance so that, if needed, a tare load iteration can be performed. Then, two temperature{dependent terms are included in the regression models of the gage outputs. They are the temperature difference itself and the square of the temperature difference. Simulated temperature{dependent data obtained from Triumph Aerospace's 2013 calibration of NASA's ARC-30K five component semi{span balance is used to illustrate the application of the improved approach.

wind tunnel testing

Prognostics and Health Monitoring: Application to Electric Vehicles

As more and more autonomous electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systemssubsystems, specifically the electrical powertrain. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle.Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator either to the pilotautopilot for the electric vehicles which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life of the vehicle e.g. determine state-of-charge in batteries. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Prognostics

Design and Testing of a Low Noise Flight Guidance Concept

A flight guidance concept was developed to assist in flying continuous descent approach (CDA) procedures designed to lower the noise under the flight path of jet transport aircraft during arrival operations at an airport. The guidance consists of a trajectory prediction algorithm that was tuned to produce a high-efficiency, low noise flight profile with accompanying autopilot and flight display elements needed by the flight control system and pilot to fly the approach. A key component of the flight guidance was a real-time display of energy error relative to the predicted flight path. The guidance was integrated with the conventional Flight Management System (FMS) guidance of a modern jet transport airplane and tested in a high fidelity flight simulation. A charted arrival procedure, which allowed flying conventional arrivals, CDA arrivals with standard guidance, and CDA arrivals with the new low noise guidance, was developed to assist in the testing and evaluation of the low noise guidance concept. Results of the simulation testing showed the low noise guidance was easy to use by airline pilot test subjects and effective in achieving the desired noise reduction. Noise under the flight path was reduced by at least 2 decibels in Sound Exposure Level (SEL) at distances from about 3 nautical miles out to about 17.5 nautical miles from the runway, with a peak reduction of 8.5 decibels at about 10.5 nautical miles. Fuel consumption was also reduced by about 17% for the LNG conditions compared to baseline runs for the same flight distance. Pilot acceptance and understanding of the guidance was quite high with favorable comments and ratings received from all test subjects.

Williams, David H.