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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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824 records · Page 4

Temperature-Dependent Transport Characteristics of 2D MoS2 Channel FETs Grown Using Salt-Based Precursors

D Transition Metal Dichalcogenides (TMDs), particularly MoS2, are promising candidates for sub-10 nm Gate All Around (GAA) CMOS FETs. Salt-assisted Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) enable lateral MoS2 growth at atmospheric pressure and low temperatures. This work analyzes salt-based precursor-driven CVD-grown MoS2 FETs at various temperatures. MoS2 was grown using Ammonium Molybdate salt, sulfurized at 750∘C, and transferred onto p−Si3/SiO2 substrates. At room temperature, threshold voltage (VT) ranged from -35 V to -25 V, with a peak drain current of 1.2μA/μm. As temperature increased above 325K, VT shifted exponentially, and carrier mobility dropped significantly. At 400 K, the gate lost channel control, though gate leakage current remained low. These results are compared with non-salt-based MoS2 growth to assess salt precursor effects.Notice: This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (https://www.energy.gov/doe-public-access-plan).

Jones, Andrew [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000233849687)

BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]

The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.

Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock

The role of fast and slow dynamics in nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy of consolidated granular materials

Abstract Elastic nonlinearity observed in consolidated granular media can be attributed to the combination of slow and fast effects, which give rise to hysteresis and relaxation of both modulus and damping after the sample is perturbed. A consequence is a high level of complexity in the measurements of the sample linear and nonlinear elastic parameters. The results of experiments are dependent on the experimental protocol that is adopted to measure the relevant quantities and it is hard to quantify parameters with accuracy and repeatability. Here we focus on examining Nonlinear Resonant Ultrasound Spectroscopy, showing experimentally the role of slow dynamics in the process and quantifying/discussing its influence on the quantification of nonlinearity. We also propose a model to describe the process, which shows that different contributions to nonlinearity (e.g., classical and hysteretic) could be due to physical features (defects) relaxing with different relaxation times.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Scan‐Path‐ and Initial‐State‐Dependent Superdomain Switching in (111)‐Oriented PZT

Polarization switching in ferroelectric materials arises from the collective evolution of complex domain hierarchies, yet deterministic control over these processes remains challenging. Here, we investigate scan-path- and initial-state-dependent switching in epitaxial (111)-oriented PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 thin films using automated AFM-based writing combined with quantitative 3D piezoresponse force microscopy. We show that the scan trajectory acts as an experimentally accessible control parameter for superdomain formation. Box-in-box raster scans reproducibly stabilize ordered stripe superdomains with a reduced subset of symmetry-allowed variants, whereas spiral trajectories generate frustrated mixed-variant states with a broader distribution of final microstructures. Automated pulsing experiments further show that the local superdomain configuration at the nucleation site strongly influences the final written morphology. Phase-field modeling qualitatively reproduces the contrast between representative initial-state geometries and supports the role of compatibility constraints among competing ferroelastic pathways. These findings establish scan-path and initial-state engineering as practical handles to program ferroic order in hierarchical ferroelectric domain structures.

Vasudevan, Rama K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio

Kinetic control of phase evolution and defect-mediated recombination in AACVD-grown copper antimony sulphide thin films

Copper antimony sulphide (CAS) is a multinary chalcogenide semiconductor in which small deviations from stoichiometry can drive phase competition and strong defect-mediated modulation of optoelectronic properties. However, the systematic roles of copper precursor fraction and deposition time in governing phase evolution, off-stoichiometry, and recombination dynamics in aerosol-assisted chemical vapour deposition (AACVD)-grown undoped CAS thin films remain insufficiently understood. In this work, undoped CAS thin films were deposited by AACVD using Cu(dedtc)2 and Sb(dedtc)3 single-source precursors at 550 °C and a carrier gas flow rate of 150 sccm, while the Cu(dedtc)2 mole fraction (x = 0.15 – 0.55) and deposition time (1 – 2 hours) were systematically varied to probe how growth kinetics influence phase composition, microstructure, and defect-mediated optical properties without post-deposition annealing or extrinsic doping. Increasing copper precursor content drives phase evolution toward tetrahedrite-dominant CAS films at intermediate Cu(dedtc)2 mole fractions, with the film deposited at x = 0.35 exhibiting the strongest tetrahedrite character within the parameter space examined. The films are also copper-rich, antimony-poor, and sulphur-deficient, consistent with off-stoichiometric growth and intrinsic defect formation, plausibly including copper interstitials, Cu-on-Sb antisites, and sulphur vacancies. These growth-dependent compositional deviations are accompanied by tunable indirect optical bandgaps of approximately 1.60 – 2.18 eV and weak visible photoluminescence governed by defect-mediated recombination. Time-resolved photoluminescence reveals bi-exponential decay behaviour with lifetimes of approximately 0.1 – 3.6 ns, with emission dominated by slower donor–acceptor pair recombination and a smaller contribution from faster trap-assisted pathways. Collectively, these results establish an explicit kinetic process–structure–defect–property relationship for AACVD-grown CAS thin films and provide a growth–structure–property framework relevant to future optimization of CAS-based optoelectronic and energy materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Reconstruction and Dissolution of Copper Catalysts during Electrocatalytic Nitrate Reduction

Copper-based electrocatalysts are widely explored for electrochemical nitrate remediation, yet their stability under operating conditions remains poorly understood. While nanoscale and subnanoscale Cu motifs are known to restructure during the nitrate reduction reaction (NO 3 RR), how these transformations translate into irreversible material loss remains unclear. Here, we quantify Cu dissolution during NO 3 RR as a function of catalyst architecture and electrolyte chemistry using two model systems: single-atom Cu (Cu 1 ) and Cu nanoparticles (Cu NP ). Time-resolved leaching measurements, integrated with in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), reveal measurable Cu loss for both catalysts during NO 3 RR. Dissolution is concentrated at the initiation of electrolysis, coinciding with rapid restructuring, and depends strongly on morphology, with Cu NP consistently exhibiting greater Cu loss than Cu 1 . In situ XAS reveals that Cu 1 forms transient metallic clusters under reduction that largely redisperse upon returning to open-circuit voltage, whereas Cu NP undergoes reduction of an oxidized surface layer accompanied by sustained Cu loss during electrolysis. Notably, the presence of nitrate significantly intensifies restructuring and Cu loss, highlighting the critical role of electrolyte composition. Furthermore, these findings establish a direct link between electrochemical restructuring and Cu dissolution, unveiling electrolyte-dependent interactions as key determinants of catalyst durability in electrochemical nitrate conversion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

In situ electric field X-ray total scattering reveals composition-dependent electromechanical strain mechanisms in (1 − x )BiFe 2/8 Ti 3/8 Mg 3/8 O 3 – x PbTiO 3 ceramics

Ferroelectric materials find many applications in energy and aerospace industries. A major challenge for ferroelectric materials is maintaining their properties at elevated temperatures. The (1 − x )BiFe 2/8 Ti 3/8 Mg 3/8 O 3 – x PbTiO 3 (BFTM–xPT) ferroelectric solid solution is a promising candidate for high-temperature applications as it has a high piezoelectric response while also maintaining its ferroelectric phase until a high Curie temperature (T C ) of 650 °C. In this work, we investigate the piezoelectric mechanism in BFTM–xPT, a novel high-T C ferroelectric ceramic. To elucidate the origin of its enhanced piezoelectric performance, relative to other piezoceramics of similar T C , in situ electric field X-ray total scattering experiments were performed. Total scattering combines Bragg scattering (diffraction) and diffuse scattering (pair distribution function), providing insight on various length scales. With information spanning different length scales, extrinsic contributions (i.e., domain wall motion and interphase boundary motion) can be separated from intrinsic contributions (i.e., piezoelectric lattice strain). We show that, for compositions within the morphotropic phase boundary (MPB, x = 0.325), the piezoelectric response is dominated by intrinsic piezoelectric lattice strain, whereas outside the MPB (x = 0.375) the major component of the piezoelectric response is from extrinsic mechanisms including an electric-field-induced phase transition and tetragonal domain wall motion. This article reveals that the origin of piezoelectric response in BFTM–xPT is composition-dependent and shows that high-performance materials may also be located outside the MPB. These findings can help guide material design to optimize properties for specific applications.

Richtik, Brooke N. [University of Calgary, AB (Can

Exploring the Model Design Space for Battery Health Management

Battery Health Management (BHM) is a core enabling technology for the success and widespread adoption of the emerging electric vehicles of today. Although battery chemistries have been studied in detail in literature, an accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm has eluded us. Current reliability-based techniques are insufficient to manage the use of such batteries when they are an active power source with frequently varying loads in uncertain environments. The amount of usable charge of a battery for a given discharge profile is not only dependent on the starting state-of-charge (SOC), but also other factors like battery health and the discharge or load profile imposed. This paper presents a Particle Filter (PF) based BHM framework with plug-and-play modules for battery models and uncertainty management. The batteries are modeled at three different levels of granularity with associated uncertainty distributions, encoding the basic electrochemical processes of a Lithium-polymer battery. The effects of different choices in the model design space are explored in the context of prediction performance in an electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) application with emulated flight profiles.

Saha, Bhaskar

Anion-dependent phase behavior of methylimidazolium-based ionic liquids mixed with water: Correlation between local molecular structure and mesoscale behaviors

The mesoscopic phase behavior of decylmethylimidazolium (C 10 mim) ionic liquids (ILs) bearing three monovalent anions—thiocyanate (SCN − ), nitrate (NO 3 − ), and chloride (Cl − )—mixed with water at relatively high IL contents (50–95 wt%) was investigated. Small-angle and wide-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS/WAXS) were employed to follow the evolution of both local and mesoscale structures across this composition range. In the absence of water, C 10 mimSCN and C 10 mimCl behaved as disordered liquids, whereas C 10 mimNO 3 spontaneously formed a hexagonally ordered cylindrical mesophase and displayed a sticky-solid macroscopic appearance. Upon addition of water, C 10 mimSCN remained a viscous liquid and only weakly ordered lamellar domains were observed. This limited ordering is attributed to the lack of hydrogen bonding and weak interaction energy between SCN − anions and C 10 mim + cations. In contrast, the trigonal-planar NO 3 − and point-like Cl − anions promoted the formation of well-defined hexagonal mesophases up to 35–45 wt% water. The formation of hydrogen bonding of the two anions with imidazolium ring protons likely enabled the creation of compact ion clusters that effectively exclude water molecules from the immediate vicinity of the IL aggregates. These findings demonstrate that the interaction energy between ion pairs dictate IL-water interactions and therefore control the transition from disordered liquids to ordered mesophases in IL/water mixtures with high IL contents. In conclusion, the combined SAXS/WAXS analysis reveals a correlation between local intermolecular structure and the emergence of mesoscopic order, providing a systematic framework for tailoring mesoscale structures in alkylimidazolium-based IL/water systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Water Resources

Ramp-release experiments for strength measurements: Strain-rate dependence

This paper presents an enhanced analysis method for investigating material properties at high strain rates, extending the capability of established experimental techniques to gain more information. The ramp-release method has been applied to many experiments reported at high (≈10 5 − 10 6 s −1 ) strain-rates. More recent data gathered at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) has enabled higher (≈10 8 s −1 ) strain-rates to be studied. Here, we present an initial application of ramp-release analysis to NIF ramp-compression data, illustrating both the opportunities and the practical challenges of extending these methods to laser-driven platforms. The higher strain-rates accessed at the NIF mean that there is more strain-rate enhancement to strength, and the experimental configuration means that this enhancement is more readily seen in the data. This is enabled by the capability of avoiding peak-compression attenuation through the sample thickness with a designed hold period made possible by the pulse-shaping capability of NIF. We propose that this combination of experimental conditions and an enhanced analysis method enables the strain-rate enhancement to strength to be studied, and potentially for this to inform physics models at smaller scales than the continuum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Spacecraft Radiator Protection from Ionizing Radiation, Dust, and Excessive Heat Loss

Under a Phase II SBIR project funded by NASA Johnson Space Center (Contract No. 80NSSC25C0088), Analytical Scientific Products LLC (ASP) has been developing an actively controlled louver to protect spacecraft radiators from degradation due to exposure to various types of environmental conditions. Of particular interest are ionizing radiation during spacecraft transit through the Van Allen belts, dust during spacecraft landing and surface operations on the moon, and excessive heat loss during the long lunar night especially near the poles where the local ambient temperatures can drop below -200°C. Exposure to ionizing radiation and dust can degrade the optical properties of the radiator coating that in turn reduces its ability to reject excess heat from the spacecraft into the environment. Exposure to the extremely low temperature conditions during the lunar night near the poles can freeze the radiator fluids that can compromise the integrity of the radiator. Passive louvers constructed using thick aluminum vanes are used currently to protect spacecraft radiators from some of the above effects, but they have several drawbacks: (i) their high aerial density makes it impractical to scale them to protect the much larger spacecraft radiators needed for future manned missions to the moon and beyond, (ii) the bimetallic actuators used to open and close the vanes in passive louvers rely on external temperature alone and so the louver cannot offer protection from dust and ionizing radiation when the ambient temperatures are high, and (iii) the bimetallic actuators need time scales of the order of hours to open and close. We have addressed the above limitations of passive louvers through the development of a low aerial density and rapidly actuating actively controlled louver. It is constructed from a custom alloy that offers much higher levels of protection against the ionizing radiation, dust and excessive heat loss at a fraction of weight compared to passive louvers while providing opening and closing time scales of the order of a second. Our modular design makes it easy to scale the system up or down depending on the application. We have recently constructed a 31 inch × 31 inch module of this louver and tested its functionality and effectiveness. These tests have shown that the louver can be opened and closed in less than 2 s. It reduces the transmission of ionizing radiation by 78% to 100% (depending on the radiation source), dust transmission by more than 93%, and heat loss by more than 97%. We are currently preparing to evaluate this device at the Johnson Space Center’s cryogenic vacuum chamber where it can be subjected to simulated lunar surface conditions. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the test designs as well as the data from tests that demonstrate the effectiveness in reducing the transmission of ionizing radiation, dust, and heat under laboratory conditions.

Radiator

Spacecraft Radiator Protection from Ionizing Radiation, Dust, and Excessive Heat Loss

Under a Phase II SBIR project funded by NASA Johnson Space Center (Contract No. 80NSSC25C0088), Analytical Scientific Products LLC (ASP) has been developing an actively controlled louver to protect spacecraft radiators from degradation due to exposure to various types of environmental conditions. Of particular interest are ionizing radiation during spacecraft transit through the Van Allen belts, dust during spacecraft landing and surface operations on the moon, and excessive heat loss during the long lunar night especially near the poles where the local ambient temperatures can drop below -200°C. Exposure to ionizing radiation and dust can degrade the optical properties of the radiator coating that in turn reduces its ability to reject excess heat from the spacecraft into the environment. Exposure to the extremely low temperature conditions during the lunar night near the poles can freeze the radiator fluids that can compromise the integrity of the radiator. Passive louvers constructed using thick aluminum vanes are used currently to protect spacecraft radiators from some of the above effects, but they have several drawbacks: (i) their high aerial density makes it impractical to scale them to protect the much larger spacecraft radiators needed for future manned missions to the moon and beyond, (ii) the bimetallic actuators used to open and close the vanes in passive louvers rely on external temperature alone and so the louver cannot offer protection from dust and ionizing radiation when the ambient temperatures are high, and (iii) the bimetallic actuators need time scales of the order of hours to open and close. We have addressed the above limitations of passive louvers through the development of a low aerial density and rapidly actuating actively controlled louver. It is constructed from a custom alloy that offers much higher levels of protection against the ionizing radiation, dust and excessive heat loss at a fraction of weight compared to passive louvers while providing opening and closing time scales of the order of a second. Our modular design makes it easy to scale the system up or down depending on the application. We have recently constructed a 31 inch × 31 inch module of this louver and tested its functionality and effectiveness. These tests have shown that the louver can be opened and closed in less than 2 s. It reduces the transmission of ionizing radiation by 78% to 100% (depending on the radiation source), dust transmission by more than 93%, and heat loss by more than 97%. We are currently preparing to evaluate this device at the Johnson Space Center’s cryogenic vacuum chamber where it can be subjected to simulated lunar surface conditions. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the test designs as well as the data from tests that demonstrate the effectiveness in reducing the transmission of ionizing radiation, dust, and heat under laboratory conditions.

Radiator

Breaking the Energy Barrier of Heavy Metal Ion Diffusion in Micropores with Mesoporous 3D Graphene for Fast and Efficient Cu2+ Removal

Efficient removal of heavy metals from water critically depends not only on adsorption capacity but also on ion diffusion kinetics and the associated energy barriers. In conventional carbon adsorbents, severe diffusion confinement within micropores restricts ion transport, resulting in sluggish adsorption kinetics and large apparent activation energies despite high specific surface areas. Here, we demonstrate that this fundamental limitation is overcome by engineering meso/macroporous architectures in the 3D graphene materials synthesized via our discovered alkali-metal reactions with\\\\r\\\\n2\\\\r\\\\nCO. The unique 3D graphene materials possess defect-rich graphene frameworks with interconnected meso/macroporous networks, exhibiting simultaneously high surface area and greatly enhanced meso/macropore volume that enable efficient access to adsorption sites. As a result, the Cu2+ adsorption on 3D graphene proceeds with very low activation energies (4.98 kJ mol–1), which is almost 4 times smaller than on activated carbon (23.1 kJ mol–1). This finding offers a promising platform for efficient and sustainable water purification.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

SUDA: A SUrface Dust Analyser for Compositional Mapping of the Galilean Moon Europa

Abstract The Surface Dust Analyser (SUDA) is a mass spectrometer onboard the Europa Clipper mission for investigating the surface composition of the Galilean moon Europa. Atmosphereless planetary moons such as the Galilean satellites are wrapped into a ballistic dust exosphere populated by tiny samples from the moon’s surface produced by impacts of fast micrometeoroids. SUDA will measure the composition of such surface ejecta during close flybys of Europa to obtain key chemical signatures for revealing the satellite’s composition such as organic molecules and salts, history, and geological evolution. Because of their ballistic orbits, detected ejecta can be traced back to the surface with a spatial resolution roughly equal to the instantaneous altitude of the spacecraft. SUDA is a Time-Of-Flight (TOF), reflectron-type impact mass spectrometer, optimized for a high mass resolution which only weakly depends on the impact location. The instrument will measure the mass, speed, charge, elemental, molecular, and isotopic composition of impacting grains. The instrument’s small size of$268 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 250 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 171$ 268 mm × 250 mm × 171 $~\mathrm {mm}$ mm , radiation-hard design, and rather large sensitive area of 220 cm 2 matches well the challenging demands of the Clipper mission.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

A Multi-Tier Autonomous Aerial Architecture for Wildfire Detection, Characterization, and Communication in Infrastructure-Denied Environments

Wildfire response depends on how fast an ignition can be confirmed and located, especially in remote regions where ground-based communication and monitoring may be limited. Geostationary sensors provide frequent observations but at kilometer-scale resolution, which is too coarse to resolve small fires in remote terrain. Ground camera networks require sightlines and infrastructure that back-country areas lack. To address these limitations, this work proposes a Multi-Tier Autonomous Wildfire Intelligence System that combines wide-area monitoring with targeted, high-resolution sensing. A solar-powered high-altitude long endurance (HALE) platform operating at approximately 60,000 ft provides persistent wide-area thermal and optical surveillance, running onboard edge inference to screen candidate ignitions and reduce false positives and downlink bandwidth. When a candidate ignition is detected, low-altitude uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) can be deployed to conduct localized observations, including high-resolution imaging and atmospheric measurements such as wind and plume observation. By combining persistent detection with local sensing, the proposed architecture is designed to provide first responders with timely, high-resolution information about fire location and behavior to aid in emergency decision making.

Wildfire management, UAS, drones

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W