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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Poster Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models to Reveal Interpretable Cooling Behaviors from Smart Thermostat Data

Frequent heatwaves and hot summers increasingly challenge occupant comfort, health, and energy grid stability. Addressing these challenges requires a detailed understanding of household cooling behaviors, such as thermostat adjustments and adaptive responses to extreme conditions. Traditional analyses often rely on aggregated numerical metrics that overlook subtle but important household-specific variations. In this study, we introduce a generalizable methodology that integrates large language models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to enable scalable and detailed analysis of residential thermostat data. Using Ecobee's Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset—which provides five-minute records of indoor temperatures, thermostat setpoints, and HVAC runtimes—we focus on two U.S. cities with contrasting summer climates : Austin (TX) and Phoenix (AZ). Because raw time-series data are not well suited for direct LLM analysis, we transform them into visual representations, such as daily indoor temperature trajectories and weekly runtime histograms, to better capture behavioral variations. Leveraging LLMs' visual interpretation, we extract descriptive behavioral features, including temperature preferences, time-of-day cooling orientation, anticipatory versus reactive heatwave responses, and behavioral consistency. These semantic features support unsupervised clustering to identify distinct occupant archetypes at scale, revealing differences—such as morning-centric anticipatory coolers versus households that shift toward warmer setpoints during heatwaves—that can inform demand response, resilience planning, and health-aware interventions. By converting raw numerical data into interpretable behavioral patterns, this methodology enables scalable and practical analysis of occupant behavior, supporting actionable insights for comfort, resilience, and energy management.

Nihar, Kopal↗

Fast and programmable locomotion of hydrogel-metal hybrids under light and magnetic fields

The design of soft matter in which internal fuels or an external energy input can generate locomotion and shape transformations observed in living organisms is a key challenge. Such materials could assist in productive functions that may range from robotics to smart management of chemical reactions and communication with cells. In this context, hydrated matter that can function in aqueous media would be of great interest. Here, we report the design of hydrogels containing a scaffold of high–aspect ratio ferromagnetic nanowires with nematic order dispersed in a polymer network that change shape in response to light and experience torques in rotating magnetic fields. The synergistic response enables fast walking motion of macroscopic objects in water on either flat or inclined surfaces and also guides delivery of cargo through rolling motion and light-driven shape changes. The theoretical description of the response to the external energy input allowed us to program specific trajectories of hydrogel objects that were verified experimentally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fermilab Italian Student Program (Final Report)

I participated to the 2019 Fermilab Italian Student Program under the supervision of Anadi Canepa and Lorenzo Uplegger. I worked with the Fermilab research group that is involved with the R&D of the CMS Outer Tracker. The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) is a a general-purpose detector located at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the world's most powerful particle accelerator. In the next years LHC will undergo the High-Luminosity LHC upgrade, which will bring its luminosity from 1 × 10 34 cm -2 s -1 to 1.5 × 10 34 cm -2 s -1 . This increase in luminosity will require an upgrade of CMS as well, in order to comply with the augmented rate of particles which will cross the detector. The CMS tracker is a detector, composed of various modules made of silicon pixel trackers and silicon strip trackers, whose aim is to reconstruct the trajectories of the particles produced by the collisions in LHC. The tracker is ideally divided in Inner Tracker and Outer Tracker. The HL-LHC upgrade put important challenges in the designing of the tracker. It will have to withstand the irradiation of a large fluence of particles, without suffering a too severe deterioration of its performance. In addition to this, in order to comply with the increased rate of events that CMS will need to detect, the tracker will be exploited for triggering at the fully hardware Level 1 Trigger, in contrast to the current tracker, whose data are only used for the software High-Level Trigger. This feature is managed by the "stub logic", which will be explained in chapter 2. During the months of August and September at Fermilab I carried out the data analysis of three test beam runs performed in the last two years on the 2S Outer Tracker Minimules. The 2S Minimoule consists of two silicon strip trackers placed one upon the other with the strips kept parallel.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Urban Energy and Climate: Prospects for a Sustainable Transition

With the continuous migration of people towards metropolitan areas in search of employment, the demands for core services and energy, coupled with an increasing awareness of the impact of climate change, have placed the management and planning of global urban energy under a lot of pressure. Trends toward urban energy service transformations that offer greater affordability, reliability, efficiency and adaptability provide hope for a global sustainable future. At the same time, there are also limits to these transitions, as well as risks involved. For example, on one end of the spectrum, our urban energy future includes land use sprawl, high fossil fuel use, pollution, and unhealthy urban conditions. On the other side of this transition spectrum is more energy choices, and healthier, more livable cities, along with less energy use and fewer greenhouse gas emissions. What the future might hold for transforming the world's cities depends upon an understanding of the risks of current trajectories and the opportunities for and limitations to developing sustainable urban energy systems. This edited volume brings together leading experts on the prospects and challenges of urban energy innovation and on related-economic, social and environmental sustainability transitions. The focus of the volume is on multidisciplinary reviews, research informing technologies and policies for sustainability, and analytical insights addressing rapid urbanization and changes across a diverse typology of global cities. The volume will include an overview of the current state of urban energy systems. It will also document and evaluate urban energy prospects for a sustainable, resilient future.

drivers of change↗

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaporation and Transpiration From Multiple Proximal Forests and Wetlands

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering ecosystem function, including water flux to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET). ET is made up of evaporation (E) via non‐stomatal surfaces, and transpiration (T) through plant stomata which are impacted by global changes in different ways. E and T are difficult to measure independently at the ecosystem scale, especially across multiple sites that represent different land use and land management strategies. To address this gap in understanding, we applied flux variance similarity (FVS) to quantify how E and T differ across 13 different ecosystems measured using eddy covariance in a 10 × 10 km area from the CHEESEHEAD19 experiment in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study sites included eight forests with a large deciduous broadleaf component, three evergreen needleleaf forests, and two wetlands. Average T/ET for the study period averaged nearly 52% in forested sites and 45% in wetlands, with larger values after excluding periods following rain events when evaporation from canopy interception may be expected. A dominance analysis revealed that environmental variables explained on average 69% of the variance of half‐hourly T, which decreased from summer to autumn. Deciduous and evergreen forests showed similar E trajectories over time despite differences in vegetation phenology, and vapor pressure deficit explained some 13% of the variance E in wetlands but only 5% or less in forests. Retrieval of E and T within a dense network of flux towers lends confidence that FVS is a promising approach for comparing ecosystem hydrology across multiple sites to improve our process‐based understanding of ecosystem water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗

Optimal management of electric hotel loads in mild hybrid heavy duty truck

Here, the problem of engine idling for heavy-duty trucks has been under study for decades with Auxiliary Power Units (APUs) and Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) as the most compelling solutions. With the electrification of trucks approaching feasibility in terms of cost-effective technology, hybridization offers another “degree of freedom” to tackle the problem. Here, this work aims at exploiting a battery pack of a 48 V mild-hybrid heavy-duty truck to store sufficient onboard energy for powering the auxiliary loads during the hoteling. This problem is not trivial, as the battery packs typically cannot recover the entire energy required through regeneration alone; hence an optimal energy management strategy needs to be employed to charge the battery through the engine during drive operation. This strategy optimizes powertrain performances among the four modes: (i) Engine of Coasting (EOC), (ii) Regeneration by braking, (iii) Regeneration by engine, and (iv) engine idling. This paper presents the development of a Dynamic Programming (DP) framework that employs a multi-objective cost function to minimize the fuel consumption and maximize the regeneration using the above-mentioned four modes. A typical heavy-duty truck drive cycle is used to represent the drive phase, with mandatory hoteling stops as per regulations. A comprehensive powertrain model is developed using validated components’ model. The DP employs two state variables: battery State-of-Charge (SOC) and engine mode, and three control inputs: (i) the engine ON–OFF state, (ii) clutch engagement state, and (iii) power request at the Electric Machine (EM) for calculating optimal SOC trajectory. The framework also tackles rapid engine ON–OFF scenarios to avoid the challenges associated with DP and the compromises in fuel cost with those approaches. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested for potential fuel savings on two different battery packs by performing the full cycle simulations. The results show 6.47% of fuel consumption reduction as compared to traditional APU-based heavy-duty truck.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

System Configuration Evaluation for Process Settling of Hanford Waste Solid Particles

Direct Feed High-Level Waste (DFHLW) is a potential flowsheet operations approach to initiating high-level waste (HLW) vitrification prior to completion of the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Pretreatment Facility. A settle/decant process has been proposed to concentrate solids prior to delivery to the WTP HLW Facility during DFHLW operations, wherein the solids in a settled layer would be remixed with the supernatant liquid remaining after decanting operations to provide the feed at required solids concentrations. Settling would be used in lieu of purpose-built filtration or other solids separation equipment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing baseline technical support to the Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) Flowsheet Integration group. To support planning for DFHLW, WRPS previously requested that PNNL evaluate the current data set available to predict the time needed for HLW solids to settle and the solids concentration and strength of that settled layer, to identify gaps in the understanding and predictive capability of HLW solids waste settling times, and to provide scoping estimates of the potential settling times. Eight technical gaps were identified for predicting settling times and characteristics of the formed sediment layers. In addition to the data gaps, an overarching observation was made that there is significant variation in behavior of settling rate and settled layer data. The settling time required to concentrate solids via a settle/decant process was determined from the limited data to have a difference of potentially more than a factor of 5,000 in the estimated settling times, varying from 0.2 to 1,060 days for example depending on process vessel depth and final sediment solids concentration. In contrast, successful processes of liquid-forward output streams resulting from in-tank settling and decanting forward liquid have been reported for operations conducted at the Hanford Site. The purpose of this current report is to further support DFHLW planning by evaluating double-shell tank (DST) and alternate vessel equipment and operational configurations to enable optimization of the settle/decant process to concentrate solids. Hanford waste processing behavior specific to liquid feed availability following a slurry transfer in a DST is summarized, including process stream characteristics and process equipment configurations. The performance of DST process equipment configurations is evaluated for possible improvements using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and simple analytical models. Potential new vessel design(s) specific to enabling effective settle/decant processes, and cursory summary of other separate and inline solids separations processes, are also provided. The CFD results indicated that improvement in outflow solids concentration was promoted by a reduction in the slurry flow rate, angling the distributor nozzles downward, and lifting the transfer pump. The solid-liquid analysis evaluating particle trajectory confirmed that the potential for particle ingestion (in the transfer pump) was decreased with increased radial separation between the inlet and outlet (transfer pump inlet), decreased inlet flow, and decreased liquid density and viscosity for a neutrally buoyant inlet flow. An assessment was also made of the potential for inflow configuration changes to result in the discrete mounding or piling of solids within the tank. Based on the characterization of the settled waste to date, HLW sediments will be unlikely to sustain a substantial angle of repose to facilitate significant variations in the elevation of the settled solids.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗

Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Furthermore, our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Relative Abundance of Soil Nutrient‐Degrading Enzyme‐Encoding Genes Across Continental US Ecoregions

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns in the relative abundance of soil extracellular enzyme‐encoding genes is critical for predicting microbial responses to environmental change and their potential role in nutrient cycling. Yet, integrating novel metagenomic observations with spatiotemporal environmental gradients to infer regional patterns and future trajectories has remained unclear. To address this gap, we applied a machine learning (ML) approach, integrating soil metagenomic data with environmental variables—soil properties, topography, vegetation, and climate—to predict the relative abundance of enzyme‐encoding genes for soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) across surface soils of the continental United States. We assessed potential responses under future emission scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) by comparing a baseline (1985–2014) to a future period (2071–2100). The ML model explained 57%–63% of baseline variation. Precipitation was identified as the most influential factor for the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes, while slope length, representing horizontal distance that water can travel downslope, was the primary driver for P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance. Projections revealed spatially heterogeneous shifts across continental US ecoregions: the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes decreased in wetter ecoregions and increased in drier ecoregions under future climate, while P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance decreased significantly in semiarid and Mediterranean ecoregions. This study demonstrates the utility of metagenomic data for mapping soil genetic potential and predicting its regional response to environmental change, to inform ecosystem management strategies.

extracellular enzyme-encoding genes↗

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying recharge processes into a vast “fossil” aquifer based on dynamic groundwater 81 Kr age evolution

Water in deep aquifers in arid regions is often considered to be "fossil" when modern recharge rates are negligible relative to the reservoir capacity. Over the past five decades, the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA) in the arid region of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev Desert (Israel) has been considered to contain fossil water based on 14 C dating, which revealed 14 C ages of about 30 kyr over most of the aquifer. However, this relatively homogeneous age distribution contradicts the expected increase in groundwater age in the direction of decreasing piezometric head along the flow trajectories. Here, dating results with the longer-lived 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 ± 11 kyr) are presented, highlighting a wide age range of 40 kyr to 630 kyr in the confined sections of the aquifer, all with very low 14 C activity (<1 pmC). Elevated 81Kr and 14 C activities were only observed within or close to the system's recharge areas. These findings support a new perception of groundwater replenishment during different epochs from the early mid- Pleistocene to the Holocene. By tracking the downstream age evolution, rejuvenation was identified in places where the confinement had been breached. At other locations, the existence of an older groundwater body contributing to the aquifer was detected by means of strongly depleted 81 Kr activity. High spatial heterogeneity in groundwater ages close to the discharge zone of the system is attributed to pronounced age stratification with depth. Calculated ages in the more isolated sections of the system were used to assess regional flow velocity, hydraulic conductivity, and their agreement with present recharge rates. We conclude that regional aquifers in which low 14 C activity suggests homogeneous ancient groundwater age should be reevaluated with 81Kr. With an effective age range beyond one million years, this may enable the restoration of recharge history and provide crucial information for the management of groundwater resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantification of Load Flexibility in Residential Buildings Using Home Energy Management Systems

With increasing penetration of renewable energy resources, the flexibility of operating behind-the-meter (BTM) resources plays a key role in enhancing grid reliability and resilience. Residential buildings with home energy management systems (HEMS) can provide desired flexibility for the distribution system operator (DSO) while considering customer comfort and preferences. This paper discusses a methodology to quantify the flexibility of BTM resources of residential buildings using HEMS. First, we propose a model predictive control framework to formulate the flexibility band comprising nominal, upper, and lower demand profiles. Second, the paper proposes a dispatch method for HEMS to compute the control signals for each BTM resource (e.g., air conditioner, water heater, home battery system) upon receiving a flexibility service request from the DSO. The case study provides insight into the flexibility provided at the whole-home level with different user preferences and seasons. The results demonstrate that HEMS is capable of providing flexibility service at the request of the DSO while delivering primary services to the building occupants.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗