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DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Engine-in-the-Loop Study of a Hierarchical Predictive Online Controller for Connected and Automated Heavy-Duty Vehicles

This paper presents a cohesive set of engine-in-the-loop (EIL) studies examining the use of hierarchical model-predictive control for fuel consumption minimization in a class-8 heavy-duty truck intended to be equipped with Level-1 connectivity/automation. This work is motivated by the potential of connected/automated vehicle technologies to reduce fuel consumption in both urban/suburban and highway scenarios. The authors begin by presenting a hierarchical model-predictive control scheme that optimizes multiple chassis and powertrain functionalities for fuel consumption. These functionalities include: vehicle routing, arrival/departure at signalized intersections, speed trajectory optimization, platooning, predictive optimal gear shifting, and engine demand torque shaping. The primary optimization goal is to minimize fuel consumption, but the hierarchical controller explicitly accounts for other key objectives/constraints, including operator comfort and safe inter-vehicle spacing. This work is experimentally experimentally validated via a sequence of EIL studies intended for evaluating the computational costs and fuel savings associated with these algorithms. These EIL studies involve the closed-loop validation of the proposed control strategies, both individually and combined. These studies show that this hierarchy of algorithms is capable of running online, with the round-trip communication delay inherent in EIL simulation being one of the key factors affecting the EIL results. Moreover, the EIL studies are encouraging, both in terms of the successful hierarchical integration of the underlying algorithms and also in the resulting fuel savings seen in the EIL tests. In particular, the EIL results suggest that an aggressive overall goal of reducing vehicle fuel consumption by 15-20% or more is potentially achievable, especially in urban/suburban scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

FY23 Year End Report of Delivery Environments Predictive Capabilities Use in Analysis of SRP Programs

As was established in a previous milestone report for FY20, W-13 continues to be tasked with analyses that require knowledge of in-flight environments and require an in-house capability to generate such environments. To this end, FY21 work included obtaining and benchmarking the use of such tools for an in-house capability. With these tools available for analysis tasks, ongoing work has been to continue the development of analysis capabilities and understanding while specifically using the tools for Responsive Development Experiment (ReDX) flights in the Stockpile Responsiveness Program (SRP). In FY23, design and analysis of ReDX flight 3A continued while targeting an FY24 launch date. This report shows that a variety of vehicle characterization and flight analysis tools were used in W-13, under the Delivery Environments Program. This work was performed in order to aid in vehicle design by predicting flight stability, trajectory, and induced environments while adapting to a series of changing internal payload configurations that resulted in significant changes to mass properties and associated flight stability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV sales by 2040 would decrease tailpipe greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 90% between 2022 and 2050, leaving about 45 million gasoline vehicles on the road. Achieving 100% sales by 2035, tailpipe emissions decrease 93%, with about 28 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050 (9% of stock). Slower EV adoption, reaching 100% sales by 2045, would result in 69 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050. Fully electrifying passenger vehicles by 2050 would require a full transition to EVs sales in the 2030s coupled with either changes to mobility, or an accelerated stock turnover in the 2040s with additional 19–30% annual LDV sales.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy-Efficient Driving in Connected Corridors via Minimum Principle Control: Vehicle-in-the-Loop Experimental Verification in Mixed Fleets

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) can plan and actuate control that explicitly considers performance, system safety, and actuation constraints in a manner more efficient than their human-driven counterparts. In particular, eco-driving is enabled through connected exchange of information from signalized corridors that share their upcoming signal phase and timing (SPaT). This is accomplished in the proposed control approach, which follows first principles to plan a free-flow acceleration-optimal trajectory through green traffic light intervals by Pontryagin's Minimum Principle in a feedback manner. Urban conditions are then imposed from exogeneous traffic comprised of a mixture of human-driven vehicles (HVs) - as well as other CAVs. As such, safe disturbance compensation is achieved by implementing a model predictive controller (MPC) to anticipate and avoid collisions by issuing braking commands as necessary. The control strategy is experimentally vetted through vehicle-in-the-loop (VIL) of a prototype CAV that is embedded into a virtual traffic corridor realized through microsimulation. Up to 36% fuel savings are measured with the proposed control approach over a human-modelled driver, and it was found connectivity in the automation approach improved fuel economy by up to 26% over automation without. Additionally, the passive energy benefits realizable for human drivers when driving behind downstream CAVs are measured, showing up to 22% fuel savings in a HV when driving behind a small penetration of connectivity-enabled automated vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous Eco-Driving with Traffic Light and Lead Vehicle Constraints: An Application of Best Constrained Interpolation

Eco-Driving is a critical technology for improving automotive transportation efficiency. It is achieved by modifying the driving trajectory over a particular route to minimize required propulsion energy. Eco-Driving can be approached as an optimal control problem subject to driving constraints such as traffic lights and positions of other vehicles. Best interpolation in a strip is a problem in approximation theory and optimal control. The solution to this problem is a cubic spline. In this research, we demonstrate the connection between Eco-Driving and best interpolation in the strip. By exploiting this connection, we are able to generate optimal Eco-Driving trajectories that could be driven with an autonomous system. Using the simulation tool FASTSim, we can evaluate the trajectories using conventional, hybrid electric, and fully electric vehicle models. Our results quantify the energy efficiency improvements that can be achieved with the proposed approach.

Mahmoud, Yara Hazem↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous Eco-Driving with Traffic Light and Lead Vehicle Constraints: An Application of Best Constrained Interpolation

Mahmoud, Yara Hazem↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Trajectory Shaper for Safe and Efficient Adaptive Cruise Control

Recent studies show that commercially-available adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems are string-unstable, indicating that ACC-driven vehicles amplify speed fluctuations from downstream traffic and induce stop-and-go waves. Moreover, it is challenging to revise the original control algorithm of an ACC system to achieve string stability due to its internal complexity and powertrain uncertainties. To achieve desired control performance given a string-unstable ACC system and circumvent revising the original control algorithm, this study proposes a model predictive control-based trajectory shaper (MPC-TS), which only modifies the sensor-measured trajectory information (i.e., position and speed) of the preceding vehicle. The proposed MPC-TS leverages the input shaping technique to generate reference trajectory to improve string stability, while incorporating tracking errors and vehicle acceleration/deceleration magnitude in the MPC cost function and constraining fluctuations of vehicle speed and spacing to ensure desired car-following performance. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of ACC with the proposed MPC-TS in terms of string stability, safety, traffic efficiency, and comfort.

Zhou, Anye↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advances in Secure 5G Network for a Nationwide Drone Corridor

Recent research has validated the proposal to add a separate set of antennas for 5G coverage in the air, while the conventional set of antennas continues to provide coverage on the ground, for a nationwide drone corridor for 5G cellular drones. More importantly, this drone corridor can be made secure and reliable by adapting the drone trajectories to avoid interference and security attacks, and with advanced precoding and physical layer security. Energy efficiency can also be improved with low-resolution massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems that utilize low resolution digital to analog converters. This paper describes additional research findings to further support the creation of this nationwide drone corridor. We design optimal drone trajectory within the drone corridor to improve safety for pedestrians and vehicles on the ground. We derive the optimum antenna uptilt angle to minimize outage probability for a given drone corridor. We also study the placement of intelligent reflector surfaces in an urban drone corridor in order to improve the multi-path scattering and hence the spatial multiplexing gains for serving drones. We calculate trajectories to maximize data rate in the presence of smart interference when drones are used as relays and each drone may be deployed in the paths of data flows from multiple BSs to multiple UEs. Next we demonstrate how the use of the additional set of antennas along with the 3GPP standard based subframe blanking method can minimize the interference from ground reflection of the radio frequency (RF) radiation from the downtilted antennas. The paper concludes with plans to continue with experimental studies to advance this work further.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Closed-form solutions towards real-time energy-optimal and collision-free speed planning with limited information

Under real-world driving conditions, available information is limited due to communication range, and connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) must plan and follow energy-optimal and collision-free speed trajectory with a high updating rate. To this end, this paper presents a holistic design of a speed planning algorithm using analytical closed-form optimal solutions. Using the simplest vehicle model, we derive closed-form solutions as a function of boundary conditions, and summarize them without and with state constraints imposed by speed limits and vehicle in front. Then, we introduce multiple modes (e.g., eco-approach to traffic signal) to properly respond dynamically changing situations, and present how to set boundary conditions for each mode, while guaranteeing nature of globally optimal solutions. Finally, we perform a large-scale simulation study to identify and quantify the energy impacts of CAVs for real-world driving routes. A simple but effective algorithm based on closed-form solutions shows a significant energy saving potential in comparison with human-driven vehicle and adaptive cruise controlled vehicle with connectivity.

Han, Jihun↗

DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Multiple Connected Traffic Light Signals in an Energy-Efficient Speed Planner

Connecting automated vehicles to traffic lights can lead to significant energy savings by enabling them to pass through intersections in an energy-efficient way without unnecessary stops. A cellular-based communication system connecting multiple traffic lights can help realize the full potential of energy-efficient driving at intersections. Thus, we propose a hierarchical speed planner that can leverage information from multiple connected traffic lights. The proposed speed planner consists of two modules: a green window selector and a reference trajectory generator. The green window selector, based on Dijkstra’s algorithm, finds a series of "green windows" for connected traffic lights that builds an energy-optimal path for vehicles to follow. The reference trajectory generator finds optimal entering times, based on the selected green window at each intersection, and then computes reference trajectories. Deriving and using analytical optimal entering speeds as a function of entering times allows us to guarantee the computational simplicity suitable for real-time implementation. We also demonstrate how to balance energy and traffic flow perspectives in the reference trajectory generator. Lastly, a high-fidelity simulation framework is used to evaluate the proposed speed planner and quantify the extent to which it can save energy in various real-world urban route scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Charging Rendezvous and Motion Planning for a Multi-AGV Team Including a Mobile Charging Host

Teams of automated battery-powered electric vehicles have the potential to execute complex mission tasks in off-road environments for agriculture, military, and other applications. Limited onboard energy reserves hinder their adoption in large-scale resource-constrained environments, where recharging is a necessity. It may be infeasible to install a network of static charging stations in off-road environments. For this reason, dedicated mobile host vehicles with charging capabilities are proposed as a means to increase range and capabilities of the multivehicle team. Here, in this study, we consider an ad hoc planning framework, where results from a high-confidence trajectory planner are leveraged to plan charging rendezvous between a host and other worker vehicles in a receding horizon fashion to provide high confidence that energy reserves will not be prematurely exhausted. The core problem is posed so as to minimize the impact of recharging on the mission in terms of task delays, overall energy utilization, and costs of fast charging. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations of an off-road mission, we show a decrease in task delays without substantial increases in energy needs by updating the charging rendezvous plan during the mission. However, if updates are made too often, model mismatch may cause unnecessary cycling and mission failure.

Energy constraints↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Computational Analysis of a Generic Hypersonic Store Separation

Many current hypersonic vehicles involve a main vehicle from which components separate during flight and presents simulation challenges such as shock-shock interactions, highly nonlinear interactions, and shock wave boundary layer interactions. These aerodynamic phenomena influence the attitude and trajectory of each object, which needs to be understood before large-scale experiments can be run. To gain a generic understanding of the process, high-fidelity Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions are performed on a conical vehicle geometry passing through an oblique shock wave that is representative of different configurations and scenarios. Trajectory and applied forces are tracked and show the vehicle’s dynamics are predominantly the result of differential flow incidence angles causing a strong shock; this leads to a large pressure increase over a fraction of the vehicle, which influences pitch. The vehicle appears to follow conventional stability theory with detached eddy simulation and small disturbances in initial attitude shown to have minimal influence on the scenario.

Savery, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trajectory Shaper: A Solution for Disrupted Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control

Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) can effectively reduce energy consumption, alleviate traffic congestion, and enhance safety. However, communication-related constraints and uncooperative vehicle users can disrupt CACC during real-world operations, significantly undermining the putative benefits of CACC. To alleviate the negative impacts of disrupted CACC, this study develops the trajectory shaper (TS) methods as backup solutions for two scenarios: (i) communication between vehicles is infeasible, and vehicles execute adaptive cruise control (ACC) using local sensor measurements; (ii) follower vehicles reject forming a cooperative platoon and execute their local distributed controllers using the information attained via communication. When communication is infeasible, a distributed TS is devised on each vehicle to modify the sensor measurements, enabling safe and efficient ACC operations. When communication is available but uncooperative agents are involved, the lead vehicle of the platoon executes a centralized TS to modify the information shared with uncooperative agents, achieving optimal platoon-level performance. The centralized and distributed TSs are implemented based on the model predictive control algorithms to yield optimal modifications on input information. Robustness is also factored to tackle model uncertainties during TS operations to ensure safety and efficiency. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of the proposed TSs.

Zhou, Anye [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301455579)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real time trajectory optimization for hybrid energy management utilizing connected information technologies

The disclosure is directed to solving a full trajectory optimization problem in real-time for a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) such that future driving conditions and energy usage may be fully considered in determining optimal engine energy usage and battery energy usage in real-time during a trip. An electronic control unit of the HEV may be configured to: receive route information for a route to be driven by the HEV; and after receiving the route information, iterating the operations of: measuring a current state of charge (SOC) of the battery; using at least the measured SOC and an initial co-state value stored in a memory, performing a process to iteratively update the co-state value to obtain an updated co-state value; using at least the updated co-state value, computing an updated control value; and applying the updated control value to control a usage of the battery and the internal combustion engine.

Huang, Mike X.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Charting the Path to Electrification: Analyzing the Economic and Technological Potential of Advanced Vehicle Powertrains

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) is driving advancements in highway transportation by targeting energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and cost reductions. This study investigates the fuel economy potential and cost implications of advanced powertrain technologies using comprehensive system simulations. Leveraging tools such as Autonomie and TechScape, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, this study evaluates multiple timeframes (2023–2050) and powertrain types, including conventional internal combustion engines, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Simulations conducted across standard regulatory driving cycles provide detailed insights into fuel economy improvements, cost trajectories, and total cost of ownership. The findings highlight key innovations in battery energy density, lightweighting, and powertrain optimization, demonstrating the growing viability of BEVs and their projected economic competitiveness with conventional vehicles by 2050. This work delivers actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, underscoring the transformative potential of vehicle electrification in achieving sustainable transportation goals.

Islam, Ehsan Sabri (ORCID:0000000200220180)↗