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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
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NASA NTRS1999

[Cyto-embryologic investigation of super dwarf wheat grown on board of the Mir orbital complex]

The cytoembryologic analysis of wet and dry samples of super dwarf wheat cultivated in greenhouse SVET aboard the MIR station over the whole cycle of vegetation was made with the use of light microscopy. Characteristic features of wheat development in space flight are plentiful early tillering, and formation and rapid growth of side shoots. Elementary spikelets in the composite head were more numerous but the top spikelets were rudimentary and, therefore, the ripe head contained less of these spikelets as compared with the ground controls (9-13 and 14, respectively). The number of florets in a spike was also higher reaching 14-16 vs. 7-8 in the control. Typically, no more than 4 to 5 florets vs. 3 in the control were fully differentiated while the others died off earlier in development. The fact that there were no caryopses found in the flight crop is explained by absolute male sterility appearing at different stages of staminal development: before archesporium formation, on the stage of differentiated archesporium, during meiosis, on the stage of microspores or uninucleate "pollen". The female generative system developed mainly without abnormalities. An assumption was made that elevated ethylene concentrations in the MIR atmosphere at the time of the wheat experiment were the cause for abnormal development of the male generative system which led to barrenness of the super dwarf wheat crop.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100 percent of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (tonnes per hectare) (15-18 percent). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7 percent) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4 percent).

DVI↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Near-Surface Air Temperature from Reanalysis over the United States and Ukraine: Application to Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting

In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.

GSOD↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of the Tau-Omega Model Over Bare and Wheat-Covered Flat and Periodic Soil Surfaces at P- and L-band

It has been over ten years since the successful launch of the first-ever dedicated satellite for global soil moisture monitoring; Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS). Looking towards the future, P-band (0.3-1 GHz) is a promising technique to replace or enhance the L-band (1.4 GHz) SMOS and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) missions because of an expected reduction in roughness and vegetation impact, leading to an improved soil moisture accuracy over rougher soil surfaces and more densely vegetated areas. Accordingly, this investigation evaluated the tau-omega model at P-band (0.75 GHz) using a tower-based experiment in Victoria, Australia, where brightness temperature observations were collected concurrently at P- and L-band over bare and wheat-covered flat and periodic soil surfaces. The potential to retrieve soil moisture without discriminating periodic and flat surfaces was investigated by applying the roughness and vegetation parameters calibrated for flat soil to retrieve the moisture of periodic soil. Results showed that P-band had a comparable RMSE across different roughness configurations (variations less than 0.016 m3/m3) for both bare and wheat-covered soil, while the L-band RMSE was only comparable for wheat-covered soil, indicating that periodic surfaces did not need to be discriminated in such scenarios. Conversely, a difference of 0.022 m3/m3 was observed for L-band with bare soil. A reduced vegetation impact was also demonstrated at P-band, with an RMSE of 0.029 m3/m3 achieved when completely ignoring the wheat existence with under 4-kg/m2 vegetation water content, whereas at L-band the RMSE increased to 0.063 m3/m3. This study therefore paves the way for a successful P-band radiometer mission for obtaining more accurate global soil moisture information.

P-band↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2016

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2021

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Irrigation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Lows of Wheat Production in Brazil

Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.

Brazil↗
NASA NTRS1974

ERTS-1 data collection systems used to predict wheat disease severities

The author has identified the following significant results. The feasibility of using the data collection system on ERTS-1 to predict wheat leaf rust severity and resulting yield loss was tested. Ground-based data collection platforms (DCP'S), placed in two commercial wheat fields in Riley County, Kansas, transmitted to the satellite such meteorological information as maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and hours of free moisture. Meteorological data received from the two DCP'S from April 23 to 29 were used to estimate the disease progress curve. Values from the curve were used to predict the percentage decrease in wheat yields resulting from leaf rust. Actual decrease in yield was obtained by applying a zinc and maneb spray (5.6 kg/ha) to control leaf rust, then comparing yields of the controlled (healthy) and the noncontrolled (rusted) areas. In each field a 9% decrease in yield was predicted by the DCP-derived data; actual decreases were 12% and 9%.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS1974

ERTS-1 data collection systems used to predict wheat disease severities

The feasibility of using the data collection system on Earth Technology Satellite-1 to predict wheat leaf rust severity and resulting yield loss was tested. Ground-based data-collection platforms (DCPs), placed in two commercial wheat fields, transmitted to the satellite such meteorological information as maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and hours of free moisture. Meteorological data received from the two DCPs from April 23 to 29 were used to estimate the disease progress curve. Values from the curve were used to predict the percentage decrease in wheat yields resulting from leaf rust. Actual decrease in yield obtained by applying a zinc and maneb spray to control leaf rust, and then comparing yields of the controlled (healthy) and the noncontrolled (rusted) areas. In each field, a 9% decrease in yield was predicted by the DCP-derived data; actual decreases were 12% and 9%.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Proceedings of the 1974 Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Wheat-Yield Conference

The proceedings of the 1974 Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Wheat-Yield Conference are presented. The state of art of wheat-yield forecasting and the feasibility of incorporating remote sensing into this forecasting were discussed with emphasis on formulating common approach to wheat-yield forecasting, primarily using conventional meteorological measurements, which can later include the various applications of remote sensing. Papers are presented which deal with developments in the field of crop modelling.

Pitts, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Remotely sensing wheat maturation with radar

The scattering properties of wheat were studied in the 8-18 GHz band as a function of frequency, polarization, incidence angle, and crop maturity. Supporting ground truth was collected at the time of measurement. The data indicate that the radar backscattering coefficient is sensitive to both radar system parameters and crop characteristics particularly at incidence angles near nadir. Linear regression analyses of the radar backscattering coefficient on both time and plant moisture content result in rather good correlation. Furthermore, by calculating the average time rate of change of the radar backscattering coefficient it is found that it undergoes rapid variations shortly before and after the wheat is harvested. Both of these analyses suggest methods for estimating wheat maturity and for monitoring the progress of harvest.

Bush, T. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Monitoring wheat growth with radar

The scattering properties of wheat in the 8-18 GHz band were studied as a function of frequency, polarization, incidence angle, and crop maturity. Supporting ground truth was collected at the time of measurement. The data indicate the radar backscattering coefficient is sensitive to both radar system parameters and crop characteristics, particularly at incidence angles near nadir. Linear regression analysis of the backscattering coefficient (dB) on both time and plant moisture content result in rather good correlation, as high as 0.9, with the slope of these regression lines being 0.55 dB/day and -0.275 dB% plant moisture at 9.4 GHz at nadir. It is found that the coefficient undergoes rapid variations shortly before and after the wheat is harvested. Both of these analyses suggest methods for estimating wheat maturity and for monitoring the progress of harvest.

Bush, T. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data

The author has identified the following significant results. Objective measurements of percent green wheat cover on May 21 were significantly correlated with yield, as were measurements of green LAI and LANDSAT data. Three data sets from the Finney test site were analyzed from LANDSAT passes on 22 November 1974, 15 April 1975, and 21 May 1975. After mean signal values in each band were computed for each sufficiently large wheat field, the mean values were correlated with the farmer estimates of wheat grain yield in order to assess relative information content. It is clear that the single best spectral temporal band for predicting yield is the 15 April red band (0.6-0.7 microns, band 5), with the 15 April green band (0.5-0.6 microns, band 4) a close second.

Nalepka, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Wheat signature modeling and analysis for improved training statistics

The author has identified the following significant results. The spectral, spatial, and temporal characteristics of wheat and other signatures in LANDSAT multispectral scanner data were examined through empirical analysis and simulation. Irrigation patterns varied widely within Kansas; 88 percent of wheat acreage in Finney was irrigated and 24 percent in Morton, as opposed to less than 3 percent for western 2/3's of the State. The irrigation practice was definitely correlated with the observed spectral response; wheat variety differences produced observable spectral differences due to leaf coloration and different dates of maturation. Between-field differences were generally greater than within-field differences, and boundary pixels produced spectral features distinct from those within field centers. Multiclass boundary pixels contributed much of the observed bias in proportion estimates. The variability between signatures obtained by different draws of training data decreased as the sample size became larger; also, the resulting signatures became more robust and the particular decision threshold value became less important.

Nalepka, R. F.↗