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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Ubiquity and Causes of Soil Water Preferential Flow Across 17 Ecoregions

Abstract Preferential flow (PF) in soil causes the rapid transport of water, nutrients, and contaminants into the subsurface, influencing groundwater recharge and streamflow. Data scarcity has hindered the quantification of PF occurrence and the identification of its drivers across diverse ecoregions. We address this gap by analyzing high‐frequency, multi‐depth soil moisture data across 17 ecoregions in the USA, using ∼1,500 sensors at 40 sites. We discovered that PF is widespread, with sites experiencing PF in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Multiple approaches consistently show that PF is more likely to occur with increased peak rainfall intensity, finer textured material, low soil moisture variability, humid climate, and higher net primary productivity. This suggests that PF patterns could shift with projected climate changes, increasing uncertainty in predictions of groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation. Plain Language Summary Water can bypass part of the soil's matrix through a process called preferential flow (PF). This quick transport of water through the soil brings with it nutrients and contaminants and eventually makes it to groundwater and streams. To ensure ample amounts of good quality groundwater and surface water we need to understand when and where PF occurs. We inferred when PF occurred at 40 different sites across 17 ecoregions in the USA using soil moisture and rainfall data. We found that PF happened at all sites and in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Preferential flow was most likely at sites with high rainfall intensities, high clay content in soils, low variability in soil moisture, and high vegetation productivity. As rainfall intensities are predicted to increase due to climate change and vegetation becomes more productive, PF occurrence becomes more important for predicting groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation. Key Points Preferential flow (PF) is ubiquitous across the USA and occurs in up to 60% of all rainfall events ≥2 mm Rainfall intensity, soil texture, and antecedent soil moisture emerge as critical in generating PF across diverse ecoregions Two different PF detection approaches show similar relationships between key drivers and occurrence of PF

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the Academic Climate of an R1 STEM Department: Quantified Positive Shifts in Perception

Ongoing efforts to improve diversity in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) primarily manifest as attempts to recruit more women and individuals from historically marginalized groups. Yet, these efforts fail to repair the specific, systemic issues within academic communities that hinder diverse individuals from persisting and thriving in STEM. Here, we present the results of a quantitative, multiyear effort to make the academic climate of an R1 STEM department more inclusive. We use a student-led, department-specific, faculty-supported initiative to assess and improve the climate of the Department of Chemistry at the University of California, Berkeley, as a case study. Our results provide quantitative evidence that community discussions grounded in our own data, alongside cooperative community efforts to address the issues present in those data, are effective methods for driving positive change. Longitudinal assessment of our academic climate from 2018 to 2020 via annual department-wide surveys indicates that these interventions have succeeded in shifting the perception of our academic climate. This study confirms the positive outcomes of having a practical, sustainable, and data-driven framework for affecting change within a graduate community.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Driving the Shift to Energy-Efficient and Climate-Responsible Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in Chile

This report provides an overview of global and Chile-specific market trends, technological advancements, and policy developments related to commercial refrigeration equipment, with an emphasis on refrigerated display cabinets. Section 2 examines CRE market trends at the global and Chilean levels. Section 3 presents CRE energy consumption and the latest technological options for improving energy performance. It also discusses low global warming potential (GWP)1 refrigerant options for CRE. Section 4 provides a cost-effectiveness analysis. Section 5 reviews other regional energy efficiency standards and labeling programs and offers potential standard requirements for Chile. Section 6 concludes the report by summarizing key findings and conclusions. Finally, Appendix A provides detailed guidelines intended as a starting point to inform policies and programmes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ectomycorrhizal and Dark Septate Fungal Associations of Pinyon Pine Are Differentially Affected by Experimental Drought and Warming

Changing climates can cause shifts in temperature and precipitation, resulting in warming and drought in some regions. Although each of these factors has been shown to detrimentally affect forest ecosystems worldwide, information on the impacts of the combined effects of warming and drought is lacking. Forest trees rely on mutualistic root-associated fungi that contribute significantly to plant health and protection against climate stresses. We used a six-year, ecosystem-scale temperature and precipitation manipulation experiment targeted to simulate the climate in 2100 in the Southwestern United States to quantify the effects of drought, warming and combined drought and warming on the root colonization (abundance), species composition and diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), and dark septate fungal endophytes in a widespread woodland tree, pinyon pine (Pinus edulis E.). Our results show that pinyon shoot growth after 6 years of these treatments was reduced more by drought than warming. The combined drought and warming treatment reduced the abundance and diversity of EMF more than either treatment alone. Individual ectomycorrhizal fungal taxa, including the drought tolerant Cenococcum geophilum, were present in all treatments but the combined drought and warming treatment. The combined drought and warming treatment also reduced the abundance of dark septate endophytes (DSE), but did not affect their diversity or species composition. The current year shoot growth of the trees correlated positively with ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity, highlighting the importance of diversity in mutualistic relationships to plant growth. Our results suggest that EMF may be more important than DSE to aboveground growth in P. edulis, but also more susceptible to the negative effects of combined climate stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of fire and fire-induced changes in soil properties on post-burn soil respiration

Boreal forests cover vast areas of land in the northern hemisphere and store large amounts of carbon (C) both aboveground and belowground. Wildfires, which are a primary ecosystem disturbance of boreal forests, affect soil C via combustion and transformation of organic matter during the fire itself and via changes in plant growth and microbial activity post-fire. Wildfire regimes in many areas of the boreal forests of North America are shifting towards more frequent and severe fires driven by changing climate. As wildfire regimes shift and the effects of fire on belowground microbial community composition are becoming clearer, there is a need to link fire-induced changes in soil properties to changes in microbial functions, such as respiration, in order to better predict the impact of future fires on C cycling. We used laboratory burns to simulate boreal crown fires on both organic-rich and sandy soil cores collected from Wood Buffalo National Park, Alberta, Canada, to measure the effects of burning on soil properties including pH, total C, and total nitrogen (N). We used 70-day soil incubations and two-pool exponential decay models to characterize the impacts of burning and its resulting changes in soil properties on soil respiration. Laboratory burns successfully captured a range of soil temperatures that were realistic for natural wildfire events. We found that burning increased pH and caused small decreases in C:N in organic soil. Overall, respiration per gram total (post-burn) C in burned soil cores was 16% lower than in corresponding unburned control cores, indicating that soil C lost during a burn may be partially offset by burn-induced decreases in respiration rates. Simultaneously, burning altered how remaining C cycled, causing an increase in the proportion of C represented in the modeled slow-cycling vs. fast-cycling C pool as well as an increase in fast-cycling C decomposition rates. Together, our findings imply that C storage in boreal forests following wildfires will be driven by the combination of C losses during the fire itself as well as fire-induced changes to the soil C pool that modulate post-fire respiration rates. Moving forward, we will pair these results with soil microbial community data to understand how fire-induced changes in microbial community composition may influence respiration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Salinity Stress and the Holobiont: Investigating Algal-Bacterial Interactions in Chrysochromulina tobinii

Algae and bacteria form a symbiotic partnership, known as a ”holobiont”, in which both partners provide critical nutrients to each other. Previous research indicates that the composition and structure of the holobiont plays a crucial role in the algal response to environmental stressors, with expression trends varying under stress conditions. Given the increasing prevalence of salinity shifts due to climate change, investigating the responses of these aquatic organisms to salt stress is essential. This is especially true because algae are ecologically and economically important, serving as a nutritive food source for a large range of eco-cohorts and holding potential for biofuel and nutraceutical applications. This study aimed to examine how holobiont community structure is altered in response to salinity shifts and to assess the corresponding changes in gene expression. Metagenomic and metatranscriptomic approaches were utilized to analyze the interactions between the algae, Chrysochromulina tobinii, and its associated bacterial community under varying salinity conditions. Our findings provide insight into the metabolic adaptations of the holobiont and enhance understanding of the survival mechanisms employed in response to osmotic stress.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photoperiod decelerates the advance of spring phenology of six deciduous tree species under climate warming

Abstract Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980–2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod‐induced shifts in spring leaf‐out across latitudes (up to 1.7 days per latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf‐out and advancing late leaf‐out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf‐out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant organic matter inputs exert a strong control on soil organic matter decomposition in a thawing permafrost peatland

Peatlands are climate critical carbon (C) reservoirs that could become a C source under continued warming. A strong relationship between plant tissue chemistry and the soil organic matter (SOM) that fuels C gas emissions is inferred, but rarely examined at the molecular level. Here we compared Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy measurements of solid phase functionalities in plants and SOM to ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometric analyses of plant and SOM water extracts across a palsa-bog-fen thaw and moisture gradient in an Arctic peatland. From these analyses we calculated the C oxidation state (NOSC), a measure which can be used to assess organic matter quality. Palsa plant extracts had the highest NOSC, indicating high quality, whereas extracts of Sphagnum, which dominated the bog, had the lowest NOSC. The percentage of plant compounds that are less bioavailable and accumulate in the peat, increases from palsa (25%) to fen (41%) to bog (47%), reflecting the pattern of percent Sphagnum cover. The pattern of NOSC in the plant extracts was consistent with the high number of consumed compounds in the palsa and low number of consumed compounds in the bog. However, in the FT-IR analysis of the solid phase bog peat, carbohydrate content was high implying high quality SOM. Here, we explain this discrepancy as the result of low solubilization of bog SOM facilitated by the low pH in the bog which makes the solid phase carbohydrates less available to microbial decomposition. Plant-associated condensed aromatics, tannins, and lignin-like compounds declined in the unsaturated palsa peat indicating decomposition, but lignin-like compounds accumulated in the bog and fen peat where decomposition was presumably inhibited by the anaerobic conditions. A molecular-level comparison of the aboveground C sources and peat SOM demonstrates that climate-associated vegetation shifts in peatlands are important controls on the mechanisms underlying changing C gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Colonisation of the alpine tundra by trees: alpine neighbours assist late-seral but not early-seral conifer seedlings"

This archive contains data used to support conclusions made in “Colonisation of the alpine tundra by trees: alpine neighbours assist late-seral but not early-seral conifer seedlings”, by Jabis et al., 2020. Data were collected in the alpine field location of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), on Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA.This package includes survivorship and physiology data for limber pine (Pinus flexilis), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), and Rocky Mountain snowlover (Chionophila jamesii). Site climate data such as soil moisture and temperature are also included. This data package contains ten comma-separated-values (.csv) files, and two rich-text-format (.rtf) files all compressed within one folder named “Neighbor_data_repository.zip”. Both file types can be opened by text-edit softwares such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). The files are also compatible with analyses softwares such as R. .csv files can also be opened by Microsoft Excel. Two geospatial datasets are also included in this archive: one keyhole markup language (.kml) file with four points marking the corners of the study site, and a compressed file containing two ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened using any geographic information system applications, including the entire ArcGIS suite, and QGIS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The elevation mountain treeline is expected to shift upward with climate warming, and seed germination and seedling survival are critical local controls on treeline expansion. Neighboring alpine plants, either through competition for resources or through altering the microclimate, can also affect seedling emergence and survival. We asked whether establishing tree seedlings and an alpine herb are similarly sensitive to alpine plant neighbours under ambient and altered climate. We imposed active heating, watering, and neighbor removal experiments for emerging conifer seedlings and an alpine herb.We compared target plant survival, photosynthetic efficiency, and water use efficiency under ambient and experimental conditions. Picea engelmannii seedlings showed lower survival compared with Pinus flexilis three weeks following neighbour removal, and after 1 year only survived in watered plots. Pinus seedlings responded to neighbour removal by lowering the quantum yield of photosynthesis (ϕPSII). Contrary to expectations from the stress gradient hypothesis, survival was reduced without neighbours near the low-elevation range limit of Chionophila jamesii.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: Implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication "Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: Implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska" DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4362.The dataset contains "ecosys" model outputs reported in Shirley et al. (2022) that explored how climate warming will shift carbon cycle seasonality in Alaska. The study used analysis of seasonal dynamics to support the prediction that high-latitude ecosystems are carbon sinks and will continue to accumulate carbon throughout the century. The study predicts surprisingly large increases in spring net carbon uptake that result in larger net carbon uptake in spring than in summer by year 2100. Included as *.nc files are modeled daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE), net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), autotrophic respiration (Ra), gross primary productivity (GPP), and plant nitrogen uptake. The output is provided (1) at 25 km resolution across Alaska; (2) for years 2010 through 2100. Scripts to generate publication figures included as text files (*.m) from MATLAB. A user guide included as *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the Relative Drivers of Seasonal Evapotranspiration Across a Continental-Scale Aridity Gradient

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a significant ecosystem flux, governing the partitioning of energy at the land surface. Understanding the seasonal pattern and magnitude of ET is critical for anticipating a range of ecosystem impacts, including drought, heat-wave events, and plant mortality. Here, in this study, we identified the relative controls of seasonal variability in ET, and how these controls vary among ecosystems. We used overlapping AmeriFlux and PhenoCam time series at a daily timestep from 20 sites to explore these linkages (# site-years >100), and our study area covered a broad climatological aridity gradient in the U.S. and Canada. We focused on disentangling the most important controls of bulk surface conductance (G s ) and evaporative fraction (EF = LE/[H + LE]), where LE and H represent latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively. Specifically, we investigated how vegetation phenology varied in importance relative to meteorological variables (vapor pressure deficit and antecedent precipitation) as a driver of G s and EF using path analysis, a framework for quantifying and comparing the causal linkages among multiple response and explanatory variables. Our results revealed that the drivers of G s and EF seasonality varied significantly between energy- and water-limited ecosystems. Specifically, precipitation had a much higher effect in water-limited ecosystems, while seasonal patterns in canopy greenness emerged as a stronger control in energy-limited ecosystems. Given that phenology is expected to shift under future climate, our findings provide key information for understanding and predicting how phenology may impact 21st-century hydroclimate regimes and the surface-energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling With Multiple Plankton Functional Types

Current representations of marine ecosystems in Earth System Models are greatly simplified, neglecting key interactions between dynamic food webs, biogeochemistry, and climate change. We use the Marine Biogeochemistry Library code base within the Community Earth System Model 2.2.2 to create an expanded ecosystem model with eight phytoplankton groups and four zooplankton size classes (MARBL-8P4Z). Incorporating more specific plankton types and size classes has the potential to capture a wider range of possible behaviors of the ecosystem, its complex interactions with biogeochemistry, and its feedback to climate change. It also permits stronger observational constraints, including in situ group-specific biomass and various observational estimates of plankton community composition. MARBL-8P4Z broadly captures observed global-scale patterns in biomass and community composition for both phytoplankton and zooplankton, with a good performance in simulating broad biogeochemistry fields. The model shows comparable spatial patterns and magnitudes to the observed picophytoplankton biomass (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes), and captures the seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass. Picophytoplankton groups and microzooplankton dominate biomass and production in oligotrophic, subtropical regions, while nano-phytoplankton, diatoms and the larger zooplankton groups prevail at higher latitudes and within upwelling zones. The model simulates reasonable energy transfer efficiency through the food web, with tight linkages between the phytoplankton community composition, zooplankton grazing, and carbon export, with the potential to link to fisheries models. Thus, MARBL-8P4Z has the potential to account for key climate-driven ecological shifts in the plankton that will modify ocean biogeochemistry in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗