Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cost risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Low-cost buffer storage for solar industrial steam applications

Motivation and importance: Many industrial process heat consumers operate throughout the day, and deep decarbonization with solar energy requires thermal energy storage. Thermal energy storage provides an additional operational benefit of firm delivery of steam – essential to reducing the risk of costly production interruptions. The group of process heat consumers that use steam for biofuels production for the California transportation fuels market is incentivized through the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce their carbon intensity through the use of solar steam. Examples include ethanol and dimethyl ether production. The production of these and other fuels involves distillation driven by steam reboilers with steam pressures in the range 100-280 psig. These pressures can be delivered from the type of thermal energy storage that has been the focus of this project – a steam accumulator Sunvapor, Inc. (SVI) calls a “Bullet Steam Accumulator” or “BSA TM ”. Our project adds to the understanding of the design and integration of steam accumulators charged by solar thermal energy in a biofuels production facility, and similar facilities that consume process steam. The fuel application requires a demanding level of Process Safety Management not found in other steam applications. The type of steam accumulator SVI engineered and built integrates steam generation and storage in one vessel to reduce cost. Achieving a first of a kind permit to operate such a first device has also added to the understanding of the industrial application of such systems. Goals: The overall goal of the project has been to demonstrate the advantages that a “Bullet Steam Accumulator” (BSA™) can provide to solar steam integration with a manufacturing process. The industrial host has already been convinced of the potential of the available solar steam to lower than carbon intensity score. They have been interviewed for a number of publications such as that tout the advantages SVI’s system brings to their operations. Accomplishments: At the end of 2023 Sunvapor placed in service the country’s first industrial solar boiler with thermal energy storage. At the same time, this placement in service represents the first pilot commercial system to decarbonize biofuels production through the use of solar thermal energy. While the full technical effectiveness will be shown as soon as the customer’s plant is able to consume the available steam, the economic feasibility was indicated early in the project when the combination of costs and steam pricing required to meet investor expectations was determined. The project represents a reference pilot from which a full-scale commercial system may be expanded. This pilot is a necessary first step in providing the full potential benefits to the public, including decarbonization of transportation fuels. The decarbonization of the separation steps in fuels production may be the most cost-effective and nearest term solar fuel. Co-benefits include a reduction of air pollutants such as NOx and particulate matter, and job creation for the construction, operation and maintenance of industrial solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessing the impact of demand response on peak demand in a developing country: The case of Ghana

Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response refers to consumer actions that change the utility load profile in a way that reduces costs or improves grid security by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. The methodologies that are used to achieve demand response can hardly be applicable in developing countries. Peak pricing of electricity, for instance, can hardly be implemented in many developing countries as high prices would disproportionately affect the many low-income households who do not have the capacity to take action to avoid paying high peak prices. This study aims to develop demand response methodology that can be applied in developing countries to achieve residential peak demand reduction. We use a consumer preference survey to develop a methodology suitable for developing countries. The method of diversified demand is used with energy audit and monitored data to estimate the potential peak load reduction and its cost-effectiveness for Ghana. Results show that peak reduction of 15-210 MW is expected by 2040 with a positive return on investment of 2-22% for all designed scenarios.

Diawuo, FA↗

Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Conceptual Framework

This report explores one integrated technical and process concept designed to manage interconnection costs and streamline interconnection timelines to support near-term renewable energy deployment. We describe a new agreement between renewable energy developers and utilities, informed by the technical analysis. The agreement defines the operational parameters for a renewable energy system, with the goal of reducing risk and cost to all parties. This work provides a foundation upon which other states and utilities may build proof of concept. This report is supported by a technical analysis that is detailed in a companion report, "Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Technical and Economic Analysis" (McLaren et al. 2022).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Carbon Capture, Transport, And Storage (CTS) Cost Modeling Of The Onshore Gulf Coast

The onshore Gulf of Mexico region presents significant opportunities for CO2 capture, transport, and storage due to its numerous CO2 sources, such as power plants, refineries, and its substantial CO2 storage potential. However, operators face critical decisions in designing an efficient and cost-effective CO2 pipeline network. This study examines the economic implications of two primary strategies: constructing a trunkline with excess initial capacity versus developing dedicated pipelines incrementally as new CO2 sources come online. Building a trunkline first offers the advantage of future-proofing the network, allowing for the accommodation of increased CO2 volumes from various sources over time. However, this approach incurs higher upfront costs and risks underutilizing the transport capacity in the initial stages, potentially resulting in economic inefficiencies. Conversely, constructing dedicated pipelines for each new CO2 source as it becomes operational may avoid the initial overcapacity issue but fails to capitalize on the economies of scale. This could lead to higher overall costs due to the duplication of infrastructure and increased complexity in network management. This research employs a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, integrating factors such as capital expenditure, operational costs, projected CO2 volumes, and potential economies of scale. Through this analysis, we aim to provide operators with insights into the most economically viable strategy for CO2 pipeline network design in the region. The findings underscore the importance of strategic planning and highlight the trade-offs between immediate capacity utilization and long-term cost savings, ultimately guiding stakeholders towards informed decision-making in the development of CO2 transport infrastructure. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

Spinning the Facts against Genetically Engineered Foods?

A signaling game is developed in order to derive the equilibrium conditions under which special interest groups (SIGs) involved in the controversial debate over genetically engineered (GE) foods have the incentive to truthfully reveal their information or spin facts regarding the health impact of GE foods. Consumers can choose to inspect information provided by SIGs at a cost. The risk of spinning facts is much higher for pro-GE groups, because if it turns out that a certain GE food is unsafe, the penalty will be severe. However, anti-GE groups can still spin facts at low risk even if consumers choose to inspect. This helps explain why some pro-GE groups, particularly the biotech industry, tend to remain silent. Revealing information regarding the safety of GE foods could be counterproductive given pre-existing public skepticism. Consumers may not make “better” decisions with more information provided because more information increases their inspection costs. When it is costlier for consumers to inspect, it is more likely that anti-GE groups will continue to spin facts about the negative health impact of GE foods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Unified Scaling Framework for Comparative Analysis of Major Electrical Machine Topologies

This paper presents a unified framework for comparing major electrical machine topologies under identical output and thermal constraints, with emphasis on supply-chain-aware selection among rare-earth-intensive, reduced-rare-earth, and rare-earth-free solutions. Using power factor and air-gap flux density as the principal descriptors, the framework links topology choice to relative size, copper demand, magnet dependence, cost sensitivity, and inertia. To support robust early-stage screening, the deterministic scaling model is combined with uncertainty representation, Monte Carlo scenario propagation, and hesitationaware ranking. The results show that rare-earth-rich machines remain compact and dense, whereas reduced-rare-earth and rare-earth-free alternatives become more attractive under specific material-risk and cost scenarios.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

Volume 3 of the FCC Feasibility Report presents studies related to civil engineering, the development of a project implementation scenario, and environmental and sustainability aspects. The report details the iterative improvements made to the civil engineering concepts since 2018, taking into account subsurface conditions, accelerator and experiment requirements, and territorial considerations. It outlines a technically feasible and economically viable civil engineering configuration that serves as the baseline for detailed subsurface investigations, construction design, cost estimation, and project implementation planning. Additionally, the report highlights ongoing subsurface investigations in key areas to support the development of an improved 3D subsurface model of the region. The report describes the development of the project scenario based on the ‘avoid-reduce-compensate’ iterative optimisation approach. The reference scenario balances optimal physics performance with territorial compatibility, implementation risks, and costs. Environmental field investigations covering almost 600 hectares of terrain—including numerous urban, economic, social, and technical aspects—confirmed the project’s technical feasibility and contributed to the preparation of essential input documents for the formal project authorisation phase. The summary also highlights the initiation of public dialogue as part of the authorisation process. The results of a comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment, which included significant environmental effects, are presented. Even under the most conservative and stringent conditions, a positive benefit-cost ratio for the FCC-ee is obtained. Finally, the report provides a summary of the studies conducted to document the current state of the environment.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗

Monte Carlo characterization of the cosmic ray muon flux in shallow subsurface geological repositories intended for disposal of radioactive materials

Recent challenges in monitoring subsurface geological repositories intended for disposal of radioactive materials such as spent nuclear fuel call for new, innovative concepts that are facility independent, cost-effective, passive, and reliable. Once nuclear material is in place at these facilities, reverifying the inventory may no longer be feasible if continuity of knowledge is lost or unavailable to the inspectors. Using cosmic ray muons may present several potential advantages over conventional photon/neutron signatures, and their use in safeguards applications have only received attention in the past decade. However, there have been limited efforts to explore the integration of cosmic ray muons into repository safeguards and study potential gains, risks, and costs. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based methodology to characterize the cosmic ray muon flux, including muon angular and energy differential distributions at depths representative of subsurface geological repositories. Since there have been limited measurements at these sites and a measurement made in one site is not always transferable to another site, the objective is to develop an efficient simulation method and useful parametrizations to provide a convenient tool for enabling muon simulations at any geological repository site. It is expected these results will provide a better understanding of how muons can be integrated into an existing geological repository safeguards framework.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Geo Thermal Cloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The project is motivated by the challenges, risks, and costs associated with geothermal exploration and production. Many processes and parameters impacting geothermal conditions are poorly understood. Diverse datasets are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions (public and proprietary; satellite, airborne surveys, vegetation/water sampling, geological, geophysical, etc.). Yet, it is not clear how to properly leverage these datasets for geothermal exploration due to an incomplete understanding of how physical processes impacting subsurface geothermal conditions are represented in these observations. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) provide great promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. Our goals and work under Phases 1 and 2 (as proposed) of this project address all these needs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Effectiveness of FLEX Strategies Using a CDF-Based Importance Measure Under Accident Conditions

One of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident is strengthening the station blackout (SBO) mitigation capabilities by enhancing defense in depth for all existing and new NPPs. One of the possible remedies is diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). The objective of this study is to address the benefits of FLEX in various accident scenarios in terms of both risk and cost. FLEX was originally devised against SBO accidents. In this research, we investigate the fundamental plant responses against accidents considering two fundamentally different cases: accidents that lead to high pressure on the primary side and accidents that lead to low pressure on the primary side. Several uncertainties are associated with the characteristics of the FLEX portable equipment. Specifically, the time for FLEX deployment may depend on several factors such as type of accident, point of injection, availability of safety systems, battery backup timings, and human actions. This study utilizes a dynamic risk assessment framework to analyze accident scenarios and suggests a novel importance measure, which is a cumulative distribution function– based importance metric that characterizes the influence of input distribution on complete output distribution. The importance of the existing and newly developed FLEX strategy based on risk significance is illustrated with examples. The suggested measure provides clear insight into how FLEX affects risk of the whole system and additional risk margins thanks to new safety systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Carbon Capture from ArcelorMittal Hot Briquetted Iron Plant Using Air Liquide Cryocap™ FG Technology – FEED Study

The process of steel production is energy and carbon intensive with global average energy consumption of 5.5 MWh/tonne of steel and CO2 emission intensity of 1.83 tonne CO2/tonne of steel. The steel making process has inherent CO2 emissions from mineral conversion and is considered major contributors to the global carbon emissions. The steel industry is responsible for 8% of global carbon emissions. The main objective of this research project is to execute and complete a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study for a commercial-scale, carbon capture project that separates 95% of the total CO2 emissions at the ArcelorMittal’s Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) plant in Portland, TX (Figure 1). The HBI is an ore-based metallic that is used as high-grade feedstock for high-quality steel via an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) route. The HBI plant produces 2.0 million metric tonnes of high-quality HBI and emits approximately 1 million tonnes CO2/yr. The capture system is a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) system assisted Cryocap™ FG technology (Figure 2). The captured CO2 will be pipeline grade and will be geologically stored in a facility within 10 miles of the CO2 source. The Host Site location in Corpus Christi, TX, is near hydrocarbon processing facilities and near Environmental Justice (EJ) and Qualified Opportunity Zone (QOZ) communities. Due to the location of the Host Site, the retrofit project offers the ability to demonstrate how a workforce focused on the fossil energy sector can be redirected to the clean- energy sector. The Air Liquide Cryocap™ capture technology is a proven technology and has been extensively examined for large industrial applications. It has been shown to be applicable to a variety of industrial applications including the steel industry. Cryocap™ FG (specific setup for Flue Gas application) consists of a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) unit coupled with a Cryogenic System. The PSA pre-concentrates the CO2 from the flue gas, while the cryogenic unit enables the CO2 purity to be increased to the desired level. The scope of this study incorporates completing FEED study of the CO2 capture system which includes point-source CO2 capture and balance-of-plant; Business Case Analysis (BCA) outlining the current and projected volumes of the steel plant’s point sources of CO2 and the potential utilization of tax credits, including its projected revenue and duration; Life Cycle Analysis (LCA); Environmental Justice Analysis; Economic Revitalization and Job Creation Outcomes Analysis; and Workforce Readiness Plan. The plant design work was divided into two components: Inside Battery Limits (ISBL) and Outside Battery Limits (OSBL). The ISBL focuses on the capture system, while the OSBL focuses on the utility feeds and ducting from the plant to the capture system. Various design and engineering deliverables will be developed to define commodity quantities, equipment specifications, and labour effort required to execute the project. These FEED study deliverables will be prepared with the intent to develop an overall project capital cost estimate consistent with an AACE Class 3 estimate. The modular approach for the Cryocap™ FG that is being designed for this study integrates compression, PSA, and cryogenic “bricks” to achieve the desired CO2 capture rates. This carbon capture system integrates easily with the existing plant, thus reducing project costs and risks. It is also capable of managing impurities such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), mercury, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. The capture system has a smaller footprint than amine-based systems. The two-step process uses PSA to preconcentrate the CO2 in the feedstream and then uses the cryogenic portion to purify and compress the resulting high purity CO2 product. This combination of purification and compression (i.e., process intensification) significantly reduces the CAPEX associated with use of a separate compressor commonly utilized for amine solvent-based systems. Successful completion of the FEED study will provide DOE with a detailed understanding of the costs for scaling up this proven capture technology for commercial applications at industrial facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Front-End Engineering and Design: Project Tundra Carbon Capture System (Final Report)

As the next phase of Project Tundra, Minnkota Power Cooperative (MPC) completed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study to install a post-combustion CO 2 capture system (CCS) at the MPC operated (Square Butte Electric Cooperative-owned) Milton R. Young Station (MRYS) Unit 2 (MRY2), a 477-MW power plant fueled by North Dakota lignite. The project team completed the FEED with Fluor’s Econamine FG Plus℠ (EFG+) technology and is taking the next steps leading up to start of construction. Team members included FEED technical lead Fluor Enterprises (Fluor); owner’s engineer and balance of plant (BOP) engineer Burns & McDonnell (BMcD); leading carbon capture consultants (David Greeson Consulting, Hunt International Energy Services); environmental consultants (AECOM, Agora Environmental), other BOP engineering consultants (Golder Associates, Nels); cost-share funding agency, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC); and the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC). Project Tundra’s goal is to implement carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in North Dakota, while preserving the use of lignite. Future options could lead to revitalizing legacy oil fields and creating a new CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) industry. The topic of this report is the FEED study for the carbon dioxide capture portion of Project Tundra. Building on the findings of a pre-FEED study for MRY2, the key deliverables contained in this FEED study are: a) design, costing, and performance data needed to commence project financing activities; b) engineering and material balances required to file for all project permits; and c) a final project schedule. Based on the results of the previous pre-FEED study, MPC and its team evaluated two options to provide the large amount of steam needed to operate the CCS: 1) installation of new natural gas package boilers and a new pipeline to supply natural gas to the facility and 2) extraction of steam from the existing MRYS steam turbine generator. The FEED study was performed using the package boilers option, as it was deemed to have the lowest technical risk, overall cost, and cost uncertainty. A key feature of the design, however, was the mixing the natural gas boilers’ flue gas with the MRY2 flue gas. This increased the size of the CCS system. This design also enabled the tie-in of Unit 1 flue gas for times when Unit 2 is offline. The CCS was designed to capture a combined 12,978 short tons per day (STPD) of CO 2 from the flue gases produced by the existing MRY Unit 2 along with flue gas produced by the new boiler package within the CCS. The 12,978 STPD CO 2 capture is achieved by normally processing 100% of the total available MRY Unit 2 flue gas (considering full load operation) and 100% of the boiler package flue gas, then removing 90% of the CO 2 available from the processed flue gas streams.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Building Load Control Using Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty and the Risk-Adjustable Variants

Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we use the right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty to derive a more compact MILP reformulation than the commonly known MILP reformulations with big-M constants. All the results also apply to general individual chance constraints with RHS uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an adjustable chance-constrained variant to achieve tradeoff between the operational risk and costs. We derive MILP reformulations under the Wasserstein ambiguity set and second-order conic programming (SOCP) reformulations under the moment-based set. Using real-world data, we conduct computational studies to demonstrate the efficiency of the solution approaches and the effectiveness of the solutions. Summary of Contribution: The problem studied in this paper is motivated by a building load control problem that uses the aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads as flexible reserves to absorb uncertain solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. The problem is formulated as distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) programs with right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty. In addition, we propose a risk-adjustable variant of the DRCC programs, where the risk level, instead of being predetermined, is treated as a decision variable. The paper aims to provide tractable reformulations and solution algorithms for both the (general) DRCC and the (general) adjustable DRCC models with RHS uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dataset for report: Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada

In California and Nevada, geothermal projects are subject to non-technical barriers, which may create development delays leading to higher project costs and risks and decreased competitiveness with other electricity generation technologies. These non-technical barriers may include federal and state permits, authorizations, environmental reviews, and other regulatory requirements that are applicable throughout different phases of geothermal project development. The 2022 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) report, "Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada" presents findings of a study on non-technical barriers that may influence geothermal project development. The set of data resources relied upon for the report includes: 1) interviews conducted with relevant geothermal stakeholders including regulators and project developers, 2) federal and state environmental review documents developed for specific projects, 3) a techno-economic analysis conducted using the NREL Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) framework, and 4) an analysis of the impacts of site-specific land access and permitting considerations on project development readiness conducted using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) Socioeconomic Assessment Tool (SEAT).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Microchannel-based Membrane-less Extraction of Li from Unconventional Lithium Sources & the Separation of REE

This final report provides an overview of the Project's entire duration, covering July 1, 2021 to December 31, 2023. It primarily focuses on the achievements, technological developments, and unique challenges the team faced while working on separating and extracting Lithium from produced waters. The project's primary aim was to create an integrated, high-throughput, membrane-less, and modular microfluidic platform that could extract Lithium from unconventional sources. We have successfully met all goals and milestones envisioned in the SOPO document. The most critical primary milestones, including the Go-No-Go milestone (refer to the Gantt chart in the Appendices), were successfully accomplished. We demonstrated phase separation (>90%) and extraction (>85%) performance in the MPSE using synthetic, and representative produced water composition feed at 50 ml/min total flow through MPSE 36. We have also performed a parametric study of the MPSE operations, beyond the scope of SOPO, exploring operating conditions of current and broader interest. The extended investigation of operational parameters is concurrent with our efforts to seek further development of the MPSE technology beyond the scope of the Project. Along these lines of development, we have made efforts to be responsive to DOE calls for technological developments of other types of resources (beyond PW) for the recovery of Critical Materials and higher TRL development (beyond TRL 4). During the work on this Project, we developed and implemented three innovative technical approaches that emerged from our efforts to successfully meet the Project milestones. The innovative & original technical approaches developed and implemented in this Project are now the contributions to process engineering that could be clearly credited to the Project. First, Convergent Design Approach is a comprehensive feedforward & feedback loop of four design phases: i) design for functionality, ii) design for manufacturing, iii) design for sustainability, and iv) design for market. Next was Process Intensification. A major aim of this Project was to create an innovative phase separation & extraction microscale-based technology for Li separation – thus the words microchannel-based in the Project title. A microscale-based technology is intrinsically in the center of the Process Intensification domain as defined by its unique principles. Therefore, Process Intensification was implicitly envisioned in the Project’s SOPO. Lastly, Time Scale Analysis is a novel tool for discovering the needs and directions of Process Intensification implementations in any process technology. This Project is fully credited for developing and implementing the three novel technical approaches mentioned above. These are general contributions to process engineering that emerged from this Project. Beyond the original SOPO scope, the OSU-U.Pitt research group utilized a Convergent Design methodology, integrating first-principles mathematical modeling with experimental validation on the Minimum Development Vehicle. By creating these Digital Twins, the team rapidly assessed manufacturing iterations to support TEA analysis. This framework further enabled the development of advanced Surface Modification Techniques, where hydrophobic and oleophobic coating strategies were optimized via Digital Twin tools and validated through rigorous 100-hour longevity testing. TEA Analysis: The closing efforts of this Project were focused on the TEA analysis. TEA analysis had two primary functions: i) enabling critical assessments of design variations withing 10 the Concurrent Design Approach, thus enabling evolution of the MPSE design to reach faster- better-cheaper alternatives; and ii) to create a bridge between the accomplishments of this Project and future projects of higher TRL, beyond TRL 6 level. It is important to note that the TEA model created in the Project stirred the technological solutions for the recovery of critical materials toward a vision of a very profitable modular plant that has unique zero-waste water discharge signature. More importantly, thanks to our experimental performance data and conservative assumptions, the TEA model predicts minimal technological and investment risks. Low cost of a modular unit of a nominal capacity of [1000 tons of Li 2 CO 3 /year] positions the MPSE based technology within the reach of community investors, thus offering a paradigm shift in the development of critical technologies. The project successfully navigated two primary challenges: solvent selection and manufacturing adaptation. Restricted by the SOPO to existing literature for lithium recovery, the team identified a critical need for a "material excellence program" to develop next-generation solvents, eventually concluding with a preliminary investigation into promising Ionic Liquids (ILs). Simultaneously, COVID-19 supply chain disruptions forced a pivot from traditional manufacturing to advanced additive methods at ATAMI-OSU. By transitioning from stainless steel to 3D-printed polymer substrates, the team achieved a transformative three-order-of- magnitude reduction in manufacturing costs and compressed prototyping timelines from several months to just two days. The MPSE technology offers significant energy, environmental, and economic advantages by overcoming the traditional bottlenecks of phase-separation hardware and contactor size. Unlike conventional mixer-settlers or membrane-based systems, MPSE operates without moving parts or fouling-prone membranes, achieving robust performance even with challenging, viscous, or particulate-heavy feeds. Key performance metrics include an energy intensity reduction of 5–50x (3–40 kJ/m 3 ) compared to incumbent technologies and a dramatic reduction of processing time to under 60 seconds, which drastically reduces the physical plant footprint. These technical efficiencies translate into superior economic outcomes; for a 100 t/year Li 2 CO 3 facility, implementing MPSE is projected to nearly halve contactor CAPEX (from $\$$6.08M to $\$$3.01M) and significantly increase the project's Net Present Value (NPV), derisking new investment and enabling distributed critical-mineral processing configurations. The commercialization of MPSE technology is being spearheaded by Vigsur Dynamics Inc., which has adopted a structured, parallel approach to technical and business development since its formation in January 2026. Following extensive customer discovery and engagement with the Oregon State University accelerator, Vigsur Dynamics is working to establish a business model that transitions from pilot demonstrations to modular hardware sales, ultimately aiming for a "build-own-operate" service strategy. Current technical milestones—including 100 hours of continuous operation, superior energy efficiency, and successful 6-unit modular scale-up— provide a foundation for this transition. Backed by ongoing IP licensing and a growing network of industrial and venture advisors, the company is actively de-risking the platform to replace conventional mixer-settler systems in the critical minerals market.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗