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DOE OSTI2021

PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗

DOE OSTI2022

A new algorithm for estimating radioxenon concentrations

A new algorithm (Xcounts) is introduced for estimating the activity concentrations of the xenon isotopes 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe using beta-gamma coincidence data. The algorithm simultaneously estimates the decay counts associated with the four xenon isotopes, background, and radon in contrast to the net-counts method that uses sequential residual removal to account for background and interreferences. Calibration data for background counts are determined from gas-background measurements and simulation. In Xcounts, the false positive count rates for 131m Xe and 133m Xe are lower than the false positive rates for 133 Xe and 135 Xe. This algorithm appears to reliably detect the metastable isotopes at lower activity levels than the net-counts method and have similar performance for the other isotopes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Non-thermal neutrinos created by shock acceleration in successful and failed core-collapse supernova

ABSTRACT We present a comprehensive study of neutrino shock acceleration in core-collapse supernova (CCSN). The leading players are heavy leptonic neutrinos, νμ and ντ; the former and latter potentially gain the energy up to ∼100 and ∼200 MeV, respectively, through the shock acceleration. Demonstrating the neutrino shock acceleration by Monte Carlo neutrino transport, we make a statement that it commonly occurs in the early post-bounce phase (≲50 ms after bounce) for all massive stellar collapse experiencing nuclear bounce and would reoccur in the late phase (≳100 ms) for failed CCSNe. This opens up a new possibility to detect high energy neutrinos by terrestrial detectors from Galactic CCSNe; hence, we estimate the event counts for Hyper(Super)-Kamiokande, DUNE, and JUNO. We find that the event count with the energy of ≳80 MeV is a few orders of magnitude higher than that of the thermal neutrinos regardless of the detectors, and muon production may also happen in these detectors by νμ with the energy of ≳100 MeV. The neutrino signals provide a precious information on deciphering the inner dynamics of CCSN and placing a constraint on the physics of neutrino oscillation; indeed, the detection of the high energy neutrinos through charged current reaction channels will be a smoking gun evidence of neutrino flavour conversion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ~$\$300$ × 10 9 , which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO 2 /year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO 2 /year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Physical Activity Assessment During U.S. Army Basic Combat Training

Abstract Alemany, JA, Pierce, JR, Bornstein, DB, Grier, TL, Jones, BH, and Glover, SH. Comprehensive physical activity assessment during U.S. Army Basic Combat Training. J Strength Cond Res 36(12): 3505–3512, 2022—Physical activity (PA) volume, intensity, and qualitative contextual information regarding activity type and loads carried are limited during U.S. Army Basic Combat Training (BCT). The purpose of this study was to characterize daily (05:00–20:00 hours) PA during BCT using a comprehensive approach. During 2 10-week BCT cycles ( n = 40 trainees per cycle), pedometers, accelerometers, and direct observation were used to estimate daily step count, PA volume, and intensity. Physical activity intensity was categorized by metabolic equivalents (METs) such as “sedentary” (1–2 METs), “light” (2–3 METs), “moderate” (3–6 METs), or “vigorous” (≥6 METs). Daily PA data were analyzed longitudinally using linear mixed models, with significance set at p ≤ 0.05. The mean daily step count was 13,459 ± 4,376 steps, and the mean daily accelerometer-assessed PA volume and intensity were as follows: sedentary: 505 ± 98 minutes, light: 190 ± 78 minutes, moderate: 168 ± 51 minutes, and vigorous: 14 ± 14 minutes, with no differences between cycles for all measures ( p > 0.50). Cumulative time on feet (∼50%) and sitting (20–25%) accounted for most daily activity types during both cycles. Trainees, on average, carried between 3 and 9 kg, and ≥9 kg, for 60% and 10% of the monitored day, respectively. Basic Combat Training's physical demands are high, where trainees achieved 1.7 to 2.7 times greater daily ambulation and 6 times the recommended weekly moderate-to-vigorous PA compared with civilian counterparts and performed weight-bearing load carriage for nearly half of the day. Basic Combat Training-associated PA may increase injury risk among trainees unaccustomed to arduous PA and exercise. Implementing national PA policies to improve physical fitness and facilitate acclimatization to BCT's high physical demands could reduce public health burdens and military nonreadiness.

Sport Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

ITeM: Independent temporal motifs to summarize and compare temporal networks

We report networks are a fundamental and flexible way of representing various complex systems. Many domains such as communication, citation, procurement, biology, social media, and transportation can be modeled as a set of entities and their relationships. Temporal networks are a specialization of general networks where every relationship occurs at a discrete time. The temporal evolution of such networks is as important to understand as the structure of the entities and relationships. We present the Independent Temporal Motif (ITeM) to characterize temporal graphs from different domains. ITeMs can be used to model the structure and the evolution of the graph. In contrast to existing work, ITeMs are edge-disjoint directed motifs that measure the temporal evolution of ordered edges within the motif. For a given temporal graph, we produce a feature vector of ITeM frequencies and the time it takes to form the ITeM instances. We apply this distribution to measure the similarity of temporal graphs. We show that ITeM has higher accuracy than other motif frequency-based approaches. We define various ITeM-based metrics that reveal salient properties of a temporal network. We also present importance sampling as a method to efficiently estimate the ITeM counts. We present a distributed implementation of the ITeM discovery algorithm using Apache Spark and GraphFrame. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real temporal networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1977

Electric prototype power processor for a 30cm ion thruster

An electrical prototype power processor unit was designed, fabricated and tested with a 30 cm mercury ion engine for primary space propulsion. The power processor unit used the thyristor series resonant inverter as the basic power stage for the high power beam and discharge supplies. A transistorized series resonant inverter processed the remaining power for the low power outputs. The power processor included a digital interface unit to process all input commands and internal telemetry signals so that electric propulsion systems could be operated with a central computer system. The electrical prototype unit included design improvement in the power components such as thyristors, transistors, filters and resonant capacitors, and power transformers and inductors in order to reduce component weight, to minimize losses, and to control the component temperature rise. A design analysis for the electrical prototype is also presented on the component weight, losses, part count and reliability estimate. The electrical prototype was tested in a thermal vacuum environment. Integration tests were performed with a 30 cm ion engine and demonstrated operational compatibility. Electromagnetic interference data was also recorded on the design to provide information for spacecraft integration.

Biess, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Far infrared, near infrared, and radio molecular line studies of HFE 2, HFE 3, and FJM 6

Far-infrared, near-infrared, and radio molecular-line observations of the regions of HFE 2, HFE 3, and FJM 6 are described. At positions of high molecular column density nearest to the reported positions of these sources, their infrared emission cannot be confirmed at upper bounds below those of the original detection. Near-infrared observations of the FJM 6 region (which includes the Bok globule Barnard 361) reveal a number of stellar sources, most of which are behind the molecular cloud and are reddened by it. Visual extinction through B 361 estimated by star counts yields A sub V/N(/C-13/O) = 3.7 + or - 1.6) x 10 to the -16th mag sq cm. The gas temperature and the upper bound on the dust temperature in the FJM 6 region are consistent with cosmic-ray heating of the cloud, while the values of these parameters for the clouds in the HFE 2 and HFE 3 regions do not appear consistent with either cosmic-ray or radiative heating.

Fischer, J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Non-E x B ordered ion beams upstream of the earth's bow shock

The unexpected appearance of spin modulations in the fixed voltage electrostatic analyzer detectors on ISEE 1 and 2 has made it possible to study the plasma properties of the upstream ions in high time resolution. Using an isotropic flowing Maxwellian distribution to model the count rate modulations, estimates have been obtained of the local plasma temperature and three-dimensional flow velocity of the observed upstream ion population. It is found that in almost all of the observations of upstream particles there exist beam-like ions with temperatures in the range 5-80 eV. Their flow velocities cannot be ordered by E x B. This last point separates these observations from the previously reported reflected and diffuse populations of upstream ions. Mechanisms that can gyrophase bunch the ions reflected at the bow shock are discussed as a method of explaining the data.

Gurgiolo, C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Surface and aerosol models for use in radiative transfer codes

Absolute reflectance-based radiometric calibrations of Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) are improved with the inclusion of a method to invert optical-depth measurements to obtain aerosol-particle size distributions, and a non-Lambertian surface reflectance model. The inverted size distributions can predict radiances varying from the previously assumed jungian distributions by as much as 5 percent, though the reduction in the estimated error is less than one percent. Comparison with measured diffuse-to-global ratios show that neither distribution consistently predicts the ratio accurately, and this is shown to be a large contributor to calibration uncertainties. An empirical model for the surface reflectance of White Sands, using a two-degree polynomial fit as a function of scattering angle, was employed. The model reduced estimated errors in radiance predictions by up to one percent. Satellite calibrations dating from October, 1984 were reprocessed using the improved methods and linear estimations of satellite counts per unit radiance versus time since launch were determined which showed a decrease over time for the first four bands.

Hart, Quinn J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

X ray emission from Wolf-Rayet stars with recurrent dust formation

We were granted a ROSAT observation of the Wolf-Rayet star WR 137 (equals HD 192641) to test a proposed mechanism for producing the infrared variability reported by Williams et al. (1987). These studies showed one clear infrared outburst preceded by what may be the dimming of a previous outburst. The recurrent dust formation model was put forward by Williams et al. (1990) to account for similar variability seen in WR 140, which varies in both the infrared and X-ray bands. The detected X-ray flux from WR 140 was observed to decrease from its normally high (for Wolf-Rayet stars) level as the infrared flux increased. Observation of two apparently-periodic infrared outbursts led to the hypothesis that WR 140 had an O star companion in an eccentric orbit, and that the increase in infrared flux came from a dust formation episode triggered by the compression of the O star and Wolf-Rayet star winds. The absorption of the X-rays by the increased material explained the decrease in flux at those wavelengths. If the infrared variability in WR 137 were caused by a similar interaction of the Wolf-Rayet star with a companion, we might expect that WR 137 would show corresponding X-ray variability and an X-ray luminosity somewhat higher than typical WC stars, as well as a phase-dependent non-thermal X-ray spectrum. Our goals in this study were to obtain luminosity estimates from our counting rates for comparison with previous observations of WR 137 and other WC class stars, especially WR 140; to compare the luminosity with the IR lightcurve; and to characterize the spectral shape of the X-ray emission, including the column density.

Rawley, Gayle L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Multi Sector Planning Tools for Trajectory-Based Operations

This paper discusses a suite of multi sector planning tools for trajectory-based operations that were developed and evaluated in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center. The toolset included tools for traffic load and complexity assessment as well as trajectory planning and coordination. The situation assessment tools included an integrated suite of interactive traffic displays, load tables, load graphs, and dynamic aircraft filters. The planning toolset allowed for single and multi aircraft trajectory planning and data communication-based coordination of trajectories between operators. Also newly introduced was a real-time computation of sector complexity into the toolset that operators could use in lieu of aircraft count to better estimate and manage sector workload, especially in situations with convective weather. The tools were used during a joint NASA/FAA multi sector planner simulation in the AOL in 2009 that had multiple objectives with the assessment of the effectiveness of the tools being one of them. Current air traffic control operators who were experienced as area supervisors and traffic management coordinators used the tools throughout the simulation and provided their usefulness and usability ratings in post simulation questionnaires. This paper presents these subjective assessments as well as the actual usage data that was collected during the simulation. The toolset was rated very useful and usable overall. Many elements received high scores by the operators and were used frequently and successfully. Other functions were not used at all, but various requests for new functions and capabilities were received that could be added to the toolset.

Prevot, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2015

McLaughlin Crater as a Candidate Landing Site for Humans on Mars

McLaughlin Crater is an ancient (Noachian) Martian impact crater located at 337.6 East, 21.9 North, just south of the dichotomy boundary. This site should be considered for future landed exploration because: a) it is located at the boundary of three types of scientifically important terrain that will yield key results about the geological evolution and habitability of Mars; b) it contains surfaces where radiometric dating can be related to age dates estimated from crater counting, c) it contains volatile-rich rocks that will not only yield interesting results regarding ancient atmospheric chemistry, but will also be high quality, accessible targets for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), and d) the site within the crater provides a flat, low-risk and low-elevation landing zone, which will facilitate landing large payloads on Mars.

Michalski, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Variations of Neutron Component of Lunar Radiation Background from LEND LRO Observations

Lunar neutron flux data measured by the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) on board NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) were analyzed for the period 2009-2014.We have re-evaluated the instrument's collimation capability and re-estimated the neutron counting rate measured in the Field of View (FOV) of the LEND collimated detectors, and found it to be 1.070.1counts per second. We derived the spectral density of the neutron flux for various lunar regions using our comprehensive numerical model of orbital measurements. This model takes into account the location of the LEND instrument onboard LRO to calculate the surface leakage neutron flux and its propagation to the instrument detectors. Based on this we have determined the lunar neutron flux at the surface to be approx. 2 neutrons/ [sq cm/ sec] in the epithermal energy range, 0.4e V to 1keV. We have also found variations of the lunar neutron leakage flux with amplitude as large as a factor of two, by using multi-year observations to explore variations in the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) flux during the 23rd-24th solar cycles.

Litvak, M. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing NASA Earth Science Data Discovery from Scientific Publications

Earth observations from space borne instruments have evolved explosively in the past decades. Following closely are reanalysis systems assimilating model and observational data, yielding even longer records and larger number of variables. Thanks to advances in internet technology, it is now easier than ever to visualize and analyze these data using web interfaces. On the other hand, it also becomes an increasingly daunting task to build upon the existing knowledge published in various peer reviewed sources, and navigate toward the most relevant data, analysis, and visualization. We present an analysis of a subset of publications that utilized a popular visualization web interface at the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center. Known as "Giovanni", it allows researchers from wide backgrounds to work with hundreds of variables from space observations and assimilation systems. Since coming online more than a decade ago, Giovanni has been credited in more than 100 papers per year, and the total count now is estimated to be nearly 1,500. Many of these papers contain valuable information about when, where and how Giovanni has been used, and hence forge an opportunity to learn and share the knowledge of which variables were used for what research projects. The purpose of our work is to retrieve the information from the papers and organize it as a knowledge repository which links together datasets, variables, places, dates and phenomena all of which reflect the essence of the published research. Since the publications are unstructured texts, we use natural language processing along with machine learning methods in the retrieval process. One of the challenges is deciphering the dataset names, because in many cases researchers refer to variables, rather than the datasets containing them. To constrain the number of terms, we deploy Earth Science ontologies as dictionaries for the term extraction. We demonstrate that storing these terms and underlying ontologies, along with datasets, variables and papers in the knowledge graph database, enables various linkages between all these entities facilitating the data discovery. Thus, we are setting a qualitatively new stage in improvements of web data interfaces, where machine learning techniques are used to establish and optimize usage-based discovery of data.

Irina V Gerasimov↗

NASA NTRS1992

Correcting x ray spectra obtained from the AXAF VETA-I mirror calibration for pileup, continuum, background and deadtime

The VETA-I mirror was calibrated with the use of a collimated soft X-ray source produced by electron bombardment of various anode materials. The FWHM, effective area and encircled energy were measured with the use of proportional counters that were scanned with a set of circular apertures. The pulsers from the proportional counters were sent through a multichannel analyzer that produced a pulse height spectrum. In order to characterize the properties of the mirror at different discrete photon energies one desires to extract from the pulse height distribution only those photons that originated from the characteristic line emission of the X-ray target source. We have developed a code that fits a modeled spectrum to the observed X-ray data, extracts the counts that originated from the line emission, and estimates the error in these counts. The function that is fitted to the X-ray spectra includes a Prescott function for the resolution of the detector a second Prescott function for a pileup peak and a X-ray continuum function. The continuum component is determined by calculating the absorption of the target Bremsstrahlung through various filters correcting for the reflectivity of the mirror and convolving with the detector response.

Chartas, G.↗