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NASA NTRS2020

A Systematic Review of Local to Regional Yield Forecasting Approaches and Frequently Used Data Resources

Forecasting crop yields, or providing an expectation of ex-ante harvest amounts, is highly relevant to the whole agricultural production chain. Farmers can adapt their management, traders or insurers their pricing schemes, suppliers their stocks, logistic companies their routes, national authorities their food balance sheets to guide import or export and, finally, international aid organizations can mobilize reliefs. Evidence has grown in the literature that such forecasts with a meaningful lead time are possible on various geographic scales and for a broad range of crops. Here, we present a systematic review of the methods applied in end-of-season yield forecasting and three frequently used data sources: weather data, satellite data and crop masks. Our literature database comprises 362 studies (2004–2019) which were evaluated regarding methods, crops, regions, data sources, lead time and performance. Moreover, we present 24 sources of real-time and predictive weather data, 21 sources of remote sensing data and 16 crop masks. Yield forecasting in our literature sample has been performed for 44 crops in 71 countries, also including many non-staple crops, but with an apparent bias in regions and crops. Forecasting performance depends on various factors, including crop, region, method, lead time to harvest and input diversity. Our systematic review supports a broader application of locally successful approaches at larger scales by providing a comprehensive, accessible compendium of necessary information for yield forecasting. We discuss improvement potentials with respect to methodological approaches and available data sources. We additionally suggest standardization procedures for future forecasting studies and encourage studying additional crops and geographic regions. Implications of forecasts for different target groups on different scales and the adaptation towards climate change are also discussed.

Seasonal crop yield forecasting↗
NASA NTRS1993

The dynamics of hydroponic crops for simulation studies of the CELSS initial reference configurations

During the past several years, the NASA Program in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) has continued apace with crop research and logistic, technological, and scientific strides. These include the CELSS Test Facility planned for the space station and its prototype Engineering Development Unit, soon to be active at Ames Research Center (as well as the advanced crop growth research chamber at Ames); the large environmental growth chambers and the planned human test bed facility at Johnson Space Center; the NSCORT at Purdue with new candidate crops and diverse research into the CELSS components; the gas exchange data for soy, potatoes, and wheat from Kennedy Space Center (KSC); and the high-precision gas exchange data for wheat from Utah State University (USU). All these developments, taken together, speak to the need for crop modeling as a means to connect the findings of the crop physiologists with the engineers designing the system. A need also exists for crop modeling to analyze and predict the gas exchange data from the various locations to maximize the scientific yield from the experiments. One fruitful approach employs what has been called the 'energy cascade'. Useful as a basis for CELSS crop growth experimental design, the energy cascade as a generic modeling approach for CELSS crops is a featured accomplishment in this report. The energy cascade is a major tool for linking CELSS crop experiments to the system design. The energy cascade presented here can help collaborations between modelers and crop experimenters to develop the most fruitful experiments for pushing the limits of crop productivity. Furthermore, crop models using the energy cascade provide a natural means to compare, feature for feature, the crop growth components between different CELSS experiments, for example, at Utah State University and Kennedy Space Center.

Volk, Tyler↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗
NASA NTRS1979

Cropping management using color and color infrared aerial photographs

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is a widely accepted tool for erosion prediction and conservation planning. Solving this equation yields the long-term average annual soil loss that can be expected from rill and inter-rill erosion. In this study, manual interpretation of color and color infrared 70 mm photography at the scale of 1:60,000 is used to determine the cropping management factor in the USLE. Accurate information was collected about plowing practices and crop residue cover (unharvested vegetation) for the winter season on agricultural land in Pheasant Branch Creek watershed in Dane County, Wisconsin.

Morgan, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability – the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

Drought monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2020

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability - the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2018

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields Under Climate Change

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Basso, B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Regional Drought on Sub-Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. It is driven foremost by an extended period of reduced precipitation, but it is the impacts on such quantities as soil moisture, streamflow and crop yields that are often most important from a users perspective. While recognizing that different users have different needs for drought information, it is nevertheless important to understand that progress in predicting drought and satisfying such user needs, largely hinges on our ability to improve predictions of precipitation. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales, and the implications for predictability and prediction skill. Examples are given highlighting the phenomena and mechanisms controlling precipitation on monthly (e.g., stationary Rossby waves, soil moisture), seasonal (ENSO) and decadal time scales (PD~ and AMO).

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1973

Engineering analysis of ERTS data for southeast Asian agriculture

The present program focuses on rice because of its importance world-wide as a food. Specifically, the focus is on rice fields in the Philippines. Two primary program objectives are: (1) to establish the feasibility of extracting from ERTS imagery the areas where rice is grown, and (2) to determine those measurements on the imagery which enable the assessment of crop condition. Achieving these objectives with procedures which can be cost-effective can lead the way toward yield prediction, irrigation system management, and similar functions which are known to be important needs in Southeast Asia.

Heydt, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

damage assessment↗
NASA NTRS1975

Yield prediction by analysis of multispectral scanner data

A preliminary model describing the growth and grain yield of wheat was developed. The modeled growth characteristics of the wheat crop were used to compute wheat canopy reflectance using a model of vegetation canopy reflectance. The modeled reflectance characteristics were compared with the corresponding growth characteristics and grain yield in order to infer their relationships. It appears that periodic wheat canopy reflectance characteristics potentially derivable from earth satellites will be useful in forecasting wheat grain yield.

Colwell, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Spectral estimates of intercepted solar radiation by corn and soybean canopies

Attention is given to the development of methods for combining spectral and meteorological data in crop yield models which are capable of providing accurate estimates of crop condition and yields throughout the growing season. The present investigation is concerned with initial tests of these concepts using spectral and agronomic data acquired in controlled experiments. The data were acquired at the Purdue University Agronomy Farm, 10 km northwest of West Lafayette, Indiana. Data were obtained throughout several growing seasons for corn and soybeans. Five methods or models for predicting yields were examined. On the basis of the obtained results, it is concluded that estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data is a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data in crop yield models.

Gallo, K. P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Interactions of CO2, temperature and management practices: simulations with a modified version of CERES-Wheat

A new growth subroutine was developed for CERES-Wheat, a computer model of wheat (Triticum aestivum) growth and development. The new subroutine simulates canopy photosynthetic response to CO2 concentrations and light levels, and includes the effects of temperature on canopy light-use efficiency. Its performance was compared to the original CERES-Wheat V-2 10 in 30 different cases. Biomass and yield predictions of the two models were well correlated (correlation coefficient r > 0.95). As an application, summer growth of spring wheat was simulated at one site. Modeled crop responses to higher mean temperatures, different amounts of minimum and maximum warming, and doubled CO2 concentrations were compared to observations. The importance of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization in modulating the wheat crop climatic responses were also analyzed. Specifically, in agreement with observations, rainfed crops were found to be more sensitive to CO2 increases than irrigated ones. On the other hand, low nitrogen applications depressed the ability of the wheat crop to respond positively to CO2 increases. In general, the positive effects of high CO2 on grain yield were found to be almost completely counterbalanced by the negative effects of high temperatures. Depending on how temperature minima and maxima were increased, yield changes averaged across management practices ranged from -4% to 8%.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Added Value of SMAP Soil Moisture in Crop Yield Forecasting Over Argentina

Argentina is one of the major producers and exporter of soybeans, corn, and wheat to the world market; therefore, the accurate and timely forecasting of those crops yield is crucial to national crop management and global food security. Previous studies have mainly focused on developing forecasting models for a specific crop type and location using a single source of data (e.g., vegetation indices), thus providing little insight into the forecasting models' performance on different crop types and regions. Besides, these models are based on traditional statistical regression algorithms, while more advanced machine learning approaches have not been explored. This study investigated the estimation of crop yields of three major crops (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), over major growing provinces in Argentina. Our models were trained and evaluated on data from 2015 to 2020, where three remote sensing products (Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), SMAP soil moisture, and MODIS evapotranspiration) were used as predictors. Our results indicated that accurate crop yield forecasts using the developed regression models could be made one to two months before harvest. The MLR and SVM model performance varied among different crop types, where soybean and corn exhibited better predictability compare to the wheat. In most cases, the SVM outperformed the multiple linear regression model due to its ability to capture the nonlinear and complex features of the crop-production process. The forecasted model that combines data from multiple sources outperformed single-source satellite data. The highest accuracy was obtained when the three data sources were all considered in the model development. Results also indicated that the inclusion of SMAP soil moisture improved crop yield forecasting in most provinces, and the most significant improvements occurred in the drier region.

Nazmus Shams Sazib↗
NASA NTRS1981

Crop identification and leaf area index calculations with Landsat multitemporal data

Formulas are given to convert land-based vegetative canopy spectral reflectance measurements into Landsat digital counts in the four channels for a clear standard atmosphere. These formulas are shown to predict the curves found by plotting multitemporal Landsat trajectories. With correct interpretation, plots of channel 3 versus channel 4 Landsat data for crops are shown to yield information on both crop identification and crop leaf area index.

Chance, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The large area crop inventory experiment - A major demonstration of space remote sensing

The NASA-U.S. Department of Agriculture Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE), aimed at using multispectral remote sensing data from Landsat 1 and 2 to generate accurate annual global crop production forecasts, is discussed. The forecasts take into account meteorological conditions as well as yield and acreage, and may be used to increase the discrimination of U.S. harvest estimates down to regional levels and to provide more accurate early-season predictions. Sample problems involving the determination of wheat harvests and the monitoring of drought conditions are described. Difficulties related to misidentification of abnormally-developing plantations, the automatic classification of homogeneous spectral groups, the computerized generation of colored maps, and the estimation of yields during years when exceptional meteorological conditions prevail are also considered. Samples of Landsat-generated classification maps for Western U.S. and for the Saratov, U.S.S.R. crop regions are given.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Characteristics of AVIRIS Band Measurements in Desert Agroecosystems in the Area of Blythe, California: Studies of Cotton Spectra - 1

Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data from Blythe, California, were acquired in June 1997 to study agricultural spectra from different crops and to identify crops in other areas with similar environmental factors and similar spectral properties. The main objectives of this study are: (1) to compare the spectral and radiometric characteristics of AVIRIS data from agriculture crops with ground spectra measured by a FieldSpec ASD spectrometer; (2) to explore the use of AVIRIS spectral images for identifying agricultural crops; (3) to study the spectral expression of environmental factors on selected crops; and (4) to build a spectral library for the crops that were studied. A long-term goal is to extend the spectral library for different vegetation or crops in different stages of growth. To support our study, on July 18 and 19, 2000, we collected spectra using the FieldSpec spectrometer from selected fields with different crops in the Blythe area of California (longitude 114 deg 33.28 W and latitude 33 deg 25.42 N to longitude 1140 44.53 W and latitude 33 deg 39.77 N). These crops were cotton in different stages of growth, varieties of grass pure or mixed, Sudan grass, Bermuda grass, Teff grass, and alfalfa. Some of the fields were treated with different types of irrigation (i.e., wet to dry conditions). Additional parameters were studied such as the soil water content (WC), pH, and organic matter (OM). The results of this study showed that for crops known to be similar, there is a significant correlation between the spectra that were collected by AVIRIS in 1997 and spectra measured by the FieldSpec (registered) spectrometer in 2000. This correlation allowed development of a spectral library to be used in ENVI-IDL analysis software. This library was used successfully to identify different crops. Furthermore, using IDL algorithms of Spectral Angle Mapper classification (SAM), spectral feature fitting (SFF) and spectral binary encoding (SPE) showed that there is excellent agreement between the predicted and the actual crop type (i.e., the correlation is between 85-90% match). Further use of the AVIRIS images can be of a value to crop identification or crop yield for commercial use.

Hanna, Safwat H. Shakir↗