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DOE OSTI2020

How data science methods can improve the quality and efficiency of ICF and HEDP research

Data Science methods (many that are Bayesian based) are widely used in the physical sciences to estimate model parameters from experimental data, synthesize heterogeneous data, calibrate models, design experiments, and determine statistical significance of data. These methods provide a wealth of advantages over traditional analysis techniques because: 1) uncertainties are rigorously defined and propagated naturally through complex systems including covariance, 2) prior information is captured within the analysis framework (including rad-MHD and rad-hydro simulations), 3) competing models can be selected and/or ruled out using quantitative criteria, and 4) complex, heterogeneous data can be incorporated simultaneously. While these methods have been widely adopted as the gold standard in fields such as particle physics, astronomy, and biology, they have been slow to catch on in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) research. Recently, several teams at LLNL, SNL, LANL, and the LLE have been exploring the use of these tools in their research and have found success. Here we propose that a concerted effort to consolidate these independent research efforts by developing and deploying common tools for use across the complex can revolutionize the way we approach data analysis, assimilation of theory and experiment, and decision making. The Bayesian formalism provides a means to accomplish this, but we are lacking certain infrastructure to make it happen on a large scale. Furthermore, once adopted, these techniques can be used to develop standards by which discoveries can be judged, similar to the so-called 5σ rule in high energy particle physics. Such standards may be used in the future to address the issue of unknown reproducibility in ICF and HED experiments caused by low shot rate and high cost per experiment. Our goals as a group are to advance the state of the art in HED measurement science by enabling: 1) better inferences from data with well-defined uncertainties, 2) better use of the data we have and continue to collect, 3) intelligent synthesis of data, 4) evaluation of the statistical significance of our data, and 5) informed decision making regarding the design of new experiments and instruments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Harnessing Machine Learning and Data Fusion for Accurate Undocumented Well Identification in Satellite Images

This study utilizes satellite data to detect undocumented oil and gas wells, which pose significant environmental concerns, including greenhouse gas emissions. Three key findings emerge from the study. Firstly, the problem of imbalanced data is addressed by recommending oversampling techniques like Rotation–GaussianBlur–Solarization data augmentation (RGS), the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE), or ADASYN (an extension of SMOTE) over undersampling techniques. The performance of borderline SMOTE is less effective than that of the rest of the oversampling techniques, as its performance relies heavily on the quality and distribution of data near the decision boundary. Secondly, incorporating pre-trained models trained on large-scale datasets enhances the models’ generalization ability, with models trained on one county’s dataset demonstrating high overall accuracy, recall, and F1 scores that can be extended to other areas. This transferability of models allows for wider application. Lastly, including persistent homology (PH) as an additional input improves performance for in-distribution testing but may affect the model’s generalization for out-of-distribution testing. A careful consideration of PH’s impact on overall performance and generalizability is recommended. Overall, this study provides a robust approach to identifying undocumented oil and gas wells, contributing to the acceleration of a net-zero economy and supporting environmental sustainability efforts.

SMOTE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modern Muon Physics: Selected Issues

The muon was discovered almost hundred years ago, but still remains largely a mystery. For a long time, the only difference between a muon and an electron was the approximately 200 times greater mass of the muon. However, with the later discovery of the charm quantum number, the muon played a decisive role in the formulation of the Standard Model of elementary particles, determining together with muon neutrino and the strange s and the charm c quarks the second generation of particles of this model. The equality of the reaction constant of muon decay with the constant of the vector interaction of beta-decay played a decisive role in the formulation of the conservation of the vector current (CVC) of the weak interaction of elementary particles. Processes involving muons testified in favor of the partial conservation of the axial current of weak interaction (PCAC), that is, one pion exchange in the interaction of the lepton and hadron currents. It was the muon that gave a rise to hopes of creating an alternative energy source within the framework of Muon Catalyzed Fusion (μCF). The possible realization of this process in the future as the intensity of muon beams increases can revolutionired energy supply. Nuclear fission by muons and the study of heavy-nucleus mesoatoms introduced muon physics into several separate branches of physical research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

ML Classifier Fusion for Three Data Streams with Quality Inversely Proportional to Time Resolution

We consider a monitoring scenario of phenomenon using three different streams of measurements whose quality is proportional to their constant inter-arrival times. Each measurement of a stream needs to be binary-classified to reflect the state of interest of the phenomenon. A set of classifiers is separately trained and fused for each stream at its time resolution using measurements collected under known states. We present a machine learning method to fuse the outputs of these fusers to provide a final classification at the finest time resolution. We show that this fused-fusers method provides decisions with likely superior classification probability compared to the best individual classifiers and fused-classifiers. We derive generalization equations that guarantee a superior classification probability of fused-fusers with a confidence probability specified by the classifiers’ generalization equations. We apply these results to study a practical problem of classifying Pu/Np target dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility using gamma spectral measurements of effluent flows.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2020

Anatomy of $tthh$ physics at the HL-LHC

The t t h h production at colliders contains rich information on the nature of the Higgs boson. In this article, we systematically studied its physics at the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC), using exclusive channels with multiple ( ≥ 5 ) b -jets and one lepton ( 5 b 1 ℓ ), multiple ( ≥ 5 ) b -jets and opposite-sign dilepton ( 5 b 2 ℓ ), same-sign dilepton ( SS 2 ℓ ), multiple leptons (multi- ℓ ), and ditau resonance ( τ τ ). The scenarios analyzed include: (1) the t t h h production in Standard Model; (2) the t t h h production mediated by anomalous cubic Higgs self-coupling and t t h h contact interaction; (3) heavy Higgs ( H ) production with t t H → t t h h ; and (4) pair production of fermionic top partners ( T ) with T T → t t h h . To address the complication of event topologies and the mess of combinatorial backgrounds, a tool of boosted-decision-tree was applied in the analyses. The 5 b 1 ℓ and SS 2 ℓ analyses define the two most promising channels. For the nonresonant t t h h production, a combination of these exclusive analyses allows for its measurement in the SM with a statistical significance ~ 0.9 σ (with S / B > 1 % ), and may partially break the sensitivity degeneracy with respect to a varying cubic Higgs self-coupling, a difficulty usually thought to exist in gluon fusion di-Higgs analysis at HL-LHC. These sensitivities were also projected to future hadron colliders at 27 TeV and 100 TeV. For the resonant t t h h productions, the heavy Higgs boson in type II two-Higgs-doublet-model could be efficiently searched for between the mass thresholds 2 m h < m H < 2 m t and even beyond that, for relatively small tan β (vacuum alignment), while the fermionic top partners in composite Higgs models could be probed up to ~ 1.5 TeV and ~ 1.7 TeV , for Br ( T → t h ) = 25 % and 50%, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating the Value of Resilience into Energy Decisions

The value of resilience can be quantified and integrated into decision making to help inform economic, resilient, and sustainable energy deployment decisions using tools and analysis. Traditionally, distributed energy deployment decisions have often been based on how much energy, or how much money, a system can save. More and more, building owners and communities are recognizing that these systems can also provide a resilience value by sustaining critical loads during an outage. In order to consider the value of resilience in investment decisions, we must quantify how much resilience a system provides, assign a value to that resilience, and monetize that value through grid services, incentives, or other methods. This presentation discusses methods, tools, advantages, and challenges inherent to the process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of the as-built microstructure on the recrystallization of an additively manufactured Inconel939 Ni-based superalloy

This study investigates the influence of the as-built microstructure on the recrystallization (RX) behavior and mechanical properties of the Ni-based superalloy Inconel 939 produced by laser powder bed fusion (PBF-LB/M). Two distinct as-built microstructures were obtained by varying the hatch distance (h d ): a columnar, strongly textured condition (h d =50, termed h d 50) and an equiaxed, weakly textured condition (h d =70, termed h d 70)). Both were subjected to nine solution treatments combining three temperatures (1100, 1150, and 1200 °C) and three holding times (1, 4, and 8 h). Comprehensive microstructural characterization was conducted to assess grain morphology, texture, grain boundary character, dislocation density, and precipitate distribution. Recrystallization was found to be significantly slower than in cast counterparts, requiring higher temperatures and longer times for completion. The initial microstructure plays a decisive role: full RX was achieved only in hd70 specimens after treatment at 1200 °C for 8 h, whereas hd50 samples exhibited delayed and incomplete RX under identical conditions. This behavior is attributed to the finer grain size and higher fraction of high-angle grain boundaries in hd70, which promote recrystallization. Mechanical testing revealed that hd70 samples subjected to a 1200 °C/8 h treatment followed by standard double ageing show higher yield and tensile strengths across the investigated temperature range than both printed and cast Inconel939 processed under conventional conditions, albeit with slightly reduced ductility. The enhanced mechanical performance is attributed to the larger grain size, which limits grain boundary sliding. These results demonstrate the critical importance of controlling the as-built microstructure and tailoring post-processing strategies to optimize high-temperature performance of PBF-LB/M Inconel939.

Inconel939↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-energy-density-physics measurements in implosions using Bayesian inference

Convergent high-energy-density (HED) experimental platforms are used to study matter under some of the most extreme conditions that can be produced on Earth, comparable to the interior of stars. There are many challenges in using these systems for fundamental measurements currently being addressed by new analysis methods, such as the combination of a reduced physics model and Bayesian inference, allowing a self-consistent inference of physical quantities with a robust error analysis. These methods in combination with simple (as compared to inertial confinement fusion implosions) implosion platforms, which can be modified to show sensitivity to different physical mechanisms of interest, are used to study the physical properties of matter under extreme conditions. This work discusses a subset of implosion targets for studying opacity effects, electron-ion equilibration, and thermal conductivity and, as an example, a system consisting of a thick-shelled, gas-filled laser-direct-drive implosion is used to show how a reduced model and Bayesian inference can help inform experimental design decisions such as diagnostic choice. It is shown that for this system that a combination of neutron and x-ray self-emission diagnostics is critical for constraining the details of the thermodynamic states in the system and that the conductivity exponent in a Spitzer like framework can be constrained to the 30% level in deuterium at gigabar conditions. Furthermore, this process can be applied to many HED systems to make underlying model assumptions explicit and facilitate experimental design and analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Role of fast ions in spontaneous neoclassical tearing mode instabilities in NSTX

Spontaneous neoclassical tearing modes (spontaneous NTMs) have been observed in the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). Recently, a TRANSP based model for the modified Rutherford equation analysis was developed to accurately predict the effect of fast ions on the growth of magnetic islands. The goal of this paper is to utilize the TRANSP NTM model to understand the role of fast ions in NSTX spontaneous NTMs. Our analysis shows that when the passing fast ion driven kinetic neoclassical polarization current term is larger than 1% of the bootstrap current term in the modified Rutherford equation, fast ions play a decisive role in the early growth phase of spontaneous NTM. This result is applicable to any tokamak plasmas with a fast ion drift orbit width, or the fast ion poloidal Larmor radius, comparable to the magnetic island width.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

We Are Hiring

At Los Alamos you get an internship customized to your skill level. You receive technical mentoring and professional skill-building opportunities. This is all while working on exciting physics problems. The result? Valuable hands-on experience to help you make decisions about your future. Physics Division can help you expand your horizons, whether you are an undergraduate or graduate student seeking a one-of-a-kind summer internship experience or a post-bachelor’s or post-master’s student ready to hone your experimental research skills.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

PAS: Privacy Algorithms in Systems

Today we face an explosion of data generation, ranging from health monitoring to national security infrastructure systems. More and more systems are connected to the Internet that collects data at regular time intervals. These systems share data and use machine learning methods for intelligent decisions, which resulted in numerous real-world applications (e.g., autonomous vehicles, recommendation systems, and heart-rate monitoring) that have benefited from it. However, these approaches are prone to identity thief and other privacy related cyber-security attacks. So, how can data privacy be protected efficiently in these scenarios? More dedicated efforts are needed to propose the integration of privacy techniques into existing systems and develop more advanced privacy techniques to address the complex challenges of multi-system connectivity and data fusion. Therefore, we have introduced Privacy Algorithms in Systems (PAS) at CIKM which provides a venue to gather academic researchers and industry researchers/practitioners to present their research in an effort to advance the frontier of this critical direction of privacy algorithms in systems.

Kotevska, Olivera↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward exascale whole-device modeling of fusion devices: Porting the GENE gyrokinetic microturbulence code to GPU

GENE solves the five-dimensional gyrokinetic equations to simulate the development and evolution of plasma microturbulence in magnetic fusion devices. The plasma model used is close to first principles and computationally very expensive to solve in the relevant physical regimes. In order to use the emerging computational capabilities to gain new physics insights, several new numerical and computational developments are required. Here, we focus on the fact that it is crucial to efficiently utilize GPUs (graphics processing units) that provide the vast majority of the computational power on such systems. In this paper, we describe the various porting approaches considered and given the constraints of the GENE code and its development model, justify the decisions made, and describe the path taken in porting GENE to GPUs. We introduce a novel library called gtensor that was developed along the way to support the process. Performance results are presented for the ported code, which in a single node of the Summit supercomputer achieves a speed-up of almost 15× compared to running on central processing unit (CPU) only. Typical GPU kernels are memory-bound, achieving about 90% of peak. Our analysis shows that there is still room for improvement if we can refactor/fuse kernels to achieve higher arithmetic intensity. We also performed a weak parallel scalability study, which shows that the code runs well on a massively parallel system, but communication costs start becoming a significant bottleneck.

Germaschewski, K. (ORCID:0000000284956354)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A case study in contrastive learning information combination: Application to technical forensics of additive manufacturing filament source identification

Combination of information from disparate data sources into a single decision is a core challenge in many fields, including the field of technical forensics. Technical forensics (TF) utilizes technical characterization of questioned samples to determine properties of that sample; these properties are then used to infer information of forensic interest, such as provenance, age, or attribution. TF is utilized in traditional forensic applications, such as the attribution of material fragments from an explosive, and in nuclear forensic applications, such as the attribution of actinides which have been interdicted out of regulatory control. The challenge of combining information from disparate sources, described alternately by many terms including “Data Fusion” and “Data Integration”, is exacerbated in the technical forensics domain due to at least two factors: the challenge of interpreting each information source singularly, and the relatively small data set sizes available. Extensive literature exists attempting to combine technical forensics information sources, both in manual and automated processes. These attempts are often bespoke to the specific information sources (such as the bi-, tri-, or quad-isotope chart (Moody, Grant, and Hutcheon 2005)), with some emerging examples of simple early- and late- fusion (, respectively). Simultaneous to the information combination efforts described in the previous paragraph, the field of natural language processing attempted (and largely succeeded) in combining information from multiple non-technical information sources. The ecosystem of “multi-modal” language models, which can take text and images as input, and generate text and images as output, became large and diverse by 2025 (Khan et al. 2025). In a generalized sense, many of these methods are trained by learning neural networks which can convert raw text or images into a vector of numbers describing the text or image, hereafter called “embeddings” and the neural networks performing the conversion are called “embedders”. By using a separate embedder for text and images, finding coincident text and images (such as images with their captions), and optimizing the parameters of the embedders such that the embeddings for the text and the image are similar, the field has found a bridge between text and images (Girdhar et al. 2023). It is the contention of the authors of this report that this insight is not limited to text and images but instead can be extended to any modality which can be found coincidently. The subject of the rest of this report is the application of this method to example multi-modal technical forensic data. Some details about the data used in this report are not appropriate for this report, and are included in a companion report (PNNL-38669).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗

DOE OSTI2025

How does ion temperature gradient turbulence depend on magnetic geometry? Insights from data and machine learning

Magnetic geometry has a significant effect on the level of turbulent transport in fusion plasmas. Here, we model and analyse this dependence using multiple machine learning methods and a dataset of >200 000 nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ion-temperature-gradient turbulence in diverse non-axisymmetric geometries. The dataset is generated using a large collection of both optimised and randomly generated stellarator equilibria. At fixed gradients and other input parameters, the turbulent heat flux varies between geometries by several orders of magnitude. Trends are apparent among the configurations with particularly high or particularly low heat flux. Regression and classification techniques from machine learning are then applied to extract patterns in the dataset. Due to a symmetry of the gyrokinetic equation, the heat flux and regressions thereof should be invariant to translations of the raw features in the parallel coordinate, similar to translation invariance in computer vision applications. Multiple regression models including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and decision trees can achieve reasonable predictive power for the heat flux in held-out test configurations, with highest accuracy for the CNNs. Using Spearman correlation, sequential feature selection and Shapley values to measure feature importance, it is consistently found that the most important geometric lever on the heat flux is the flux surface compression in regions of bad curvature. The second most important geometric feature relates to the magnitude of geodesic curvature. These two features align remarkably with surrogates that have been proposed based on theory, while the methods here allow a natural extension to more features for increased accuracy. The dataset, released with this publication, may also be used to test other proposed surrogates, and we find that many previously published proxies do correlate well with both the heat flux and stability boundary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Correlated Trajectory Uncertainty for Adaptive Sequential Decision Making

One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.

Offline Reinforcement Learning↗