Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “false alarm rate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 M ⊙

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 8 5 - 14 + 21 M ⊙ and 6 6 - 18 + 17 M ⊙ (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65 M ⊙ . We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 14 2 - 16 + 28 M ⊙ , which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3 - 2.6 + 2.4 Gpc , corresponding to a redshift of 0.82 - 0.34 + 0.28 . The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13 - 0.11 + 0.30 Gpc - 3 yr - 1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Chebyshev’s Inequality in Online Anomaly Detection Driven by Streaming PMU Data

The day-to-day operation of modern power systems is highly reliant on prompt and adequate situational-awareness. This can be achieved via various system monitoring functions such as anomaly detection, in which static thresholds are commonly utilized to distinguish the normal and the abnormal system states. However, a predetermined static threshold usually lacks the flexibility to adapt to unobserved scenarios. In this paper, we propose two self-adaptive synchrophasor data driven anomaly detection approaches based on Chebyshev’s Inequality. The proposed approaches have been evaluated with Kundur’s 2area system and Mini-WECC system. Experimental results verify that the proposed approaches can dynamically adapt to unprecedented scenarios, and detect anomalous events with lower false alarm rate compared to static threshold based detection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

GraphCH: A Deep Framework for Assessing Cyber-Human Aspects in Insider Threat Detection

Insider threat is one of the most damaging cyber attacks that could cause the loss of intellectual property and enterprise data security breaches. Action sequence data such as host logs are used to investigate such threats and develop anomaly-based AI detectors. However, insider threat actions are similar to legitimate user activities, causing AI detectors to fail and suffer from high false alarm rates. Therefore, user cyber activity logs are inadequate to fully unfold insider threats. In this study, we adopt human psychological principles of risk-taking and impulsiveness along with host data to assess the influence and usefulness of human behavioral aspects in insider threat detection. Here, we hypothesize that individuals' impulsive and risk-taking behavior correlates with cyberspace activities. To validate our hypothesis, we conducted an IRB-approved study recruiting 35 participants who work in a large U.S. university and collected their cyber and psychological data for 90 days. Host and human-behavioral data analysis and mapping indicate that impulsive and risk-taking users trigger more system errors causing (un)intentional insider threats and are susceptible to attackers' social engineering and cognitive hacking. Utilizing cyber-human aspects, we introduce a Cyber-Human Graph Neural Network (GNN) based framework GraphCH to identify abnormal user behaviors and detect insider threats.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of a coastal acoustic buoy for cetacean detections, bearing accuracy and exclusion zone monitoring

Abstract There is strong socio‐political support for offshore wind development in US territorial waters and construction is planned off several east coast states. Some of the planned development sites coincide with important habitat for critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. Both exclusion zones and passive acoustic monitoring are important tools for managing interactions between marine mammals and human activities. Understanding where animals are with respect to exclusion zones is important to avoid costly construction delays while minimizing the potential for negative impacts. Impact piling from construction of hundreds of offshore wind turbines likely require exclusion zones as large as 10 km. We have developed a three‐hydrophone passive acoustic monitoring system that provides bearing information along with marine mammal detections to allow for informed management decisions in real‐time. Multiple units form a monitoring system designed to determine whether marine mammal calls originate from inside or outside of an exclusion zone. In October 2021, we undertook a full system validation, with a focus on evaluating the detection range and bearing accuracy of the system with respect to right whale upcalls. Five units were deployed in Mid‐Atlantic waters and we played more than 3500 simulated right whale upcalls at known locations to characterize the detection function and bearing accuracy of each unit. The modelled results of the detection function error were then used to compare the effectiveness of a bearing‐based system to a single sensor that can only detect a signal but not ascertain directivity. Field trials indicated maximum detection ranges from 4–7.3 km depending on source and ambient noise levels. Simulations showed that incorporating bearing detections provide a substantial improvement in false alarm rates (6 to 12 times depending on number of units, placement and signal to noise conditions) for a small increase in the risk of missed detections inside of an exclusion zone (1%–3%). We show that the system can be used for monitoring exclusion zones and clearly highlight the value of including bearing estimation into exclusion zone monitoring plans while noting that placement and configuration of units should reflect anticipated ambient noise conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmentally Adaptive, Multiband Software-Defined-Radar for Monitoring of Item of Interest in a Dynamically Cluttered Room

High-resolution multi-frequency radars when networked together, form a robust and seamless monitoring system for high-valued items. The multi-look-direction radar network investigated by LLNL and DSI, operates at 77 GHz and 5.8GHz, and is capable of detection at centimeter resolution movement of objects of interest. This dual frequency radar (unlike optical methods) can operate under various environments with conditions such a smoke, dust, and other natural or manmade obscurations. In addition, the multiband network radar is based on low-cost FCC approved EM specifications and can be scaled with the dimensions of the room and objects under consideration by user-defined inputs. Furthermore, the underlying radar signal processing based on software-defined radar engine is adaptive to its operational environment, where operators can input the size of the facility and object of interest and the distance between the object and radar. Finally, this multi-frequency radar employs a host of change detection and machine learning algorithms to reach performance levels in terms of high probability of detection and low false alarm rates while the monitoring state of the object can be reported remotely.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated, Unmanned Detection and Quantification of Fugitive Methane Emissions

Compressor stations used to move natural gas are one of the largest sources of fugitive methane emissions in the midstream sector, accounting for approximately 50% of all fugitive emissions (Zimmerle et al., 2015). This problem is most widespread at reciprocating compressors (Subramanian et al., 2015) where faulty seals are a key contributor to methane emissions (Johnson et al., 2015). As such, there is a significant need for a robust technology that could provide an early indication of an unexpected emission. Equally important, the technology needs to be able to account for biogenic versus anthropogenic sources of methane. One means of indirectly making this determination, is to leverage optical technologies that can autonomously pinpoint the source of such leaks. This presentation discusses recent work funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), focused on the development of an innovative remote sensing technology that can reliably and autonomously detect fugitive methane emissions in near real-time, using computer vision and deep learning. The technology called the Smart Methane Leak Detection (SLED/M) system was initially developed to monitor facilities such as compressor stations in a stationary, pan-tilt-zoom configuration. The system has recently been adapted to monitor facilities from an unmanned aerial system (UAS). The speed and maneuverability of UAS platforms are attractive to leak detection and repair program operators, but introduce several challenges. Many existing methane detection algorithms rely on mostly static backgrounds becoming unusable with motion. In addition, top-down views of fugitive methane emissions present differently in Optical Gas Imagers (OGI) compared to looking across the plume. Our work has focused on overcoming these challenges, enhancing the operators ability to detect methane emissions, and pinpoint their sources. Another recent adaptation to SLED/M is the ability to quantify methane emissions using passive sensors (OGI, thermal camera), environmental conditions, plume modeling, and deep learning. SLED/M advances the state-of-the-art for methane emission detection and quantification by focusing on three key critical criteria for effective methane emission mitigation: (1) autonomy (no need for a human to be in the loop), (2) high reliability (low false alarm rates), and (3) real-time performance. Results from this work will be presented.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Supervised and Un-Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Threat Detection and Scintillator Performance for Radiation Portal Monitoring

Following the events of September 11, 2001, international border crossing have been equipped with radiation portal monitors (RPMs) to identify illicit radioactive material. Polyvinyl toluene (PVT) scintillators are commonly used due to their low cost and reasonable maintainability, however they offer low spectral resolution. Despite the fact that over twenty years has transpired since this event, radioisotopes are still typically identified by hand-crafted classification algorithms, e.g., total counts or energy windowing, and exhibit relatively poor performance in detecting threats at the low false alarm rates required to support the stream of commerce. While some improvement to performance has been realized via the use of supervised machine learning, these classification algorithms typically utilize simulations in lieu of real data due to the sparsity of data for one or more classes. Accordingly, the performance of these algorithms is somewhat less than optimal when examining experiments or simulations with model mismatch. Consequently, in this work, we examine the application of a number of unsupervised machine learning, anomaly detection based algorithms, to circumvent the inverse crime when analyzing spectroscopy data for RPMs. We also compare anomaly detection results with those obtained via the use of supervised classification detection ML algorithms when model mismatch is introduced between the simulated threat items utilized for training/testing. Finally, we compared the performance of the PVT scintillators to those obtained with higher resolution detectors using both anomaly detection and supervised classification algorithms.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Single Channel Infrasound Detection Using Machine Learning

Infrasound, low frequency sound less than 20 Hz, is generated by both natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasound sensors measure pressure fluctuations only in the vertical plane and are single channel. However, the most robust infrasound signal detection methods rely on stations with multiple sensors (arrays), despite the fact that these are sparse. Automated methods developed for seismic data, such as short-term average to long-term average ratio (STA/LTA), often have a high false alarm rate when applied to infrasound data. Leveraging single channel infrasound stations has the potential to decrease signal detection limits, though this cannot be done without a reliable detection method. Therefore, this report presents initial results using (1) a convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect infrasound signals and (2) unsupervised learning to gain insight into source type.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neural Network Approaches for Mobile Spectroscopic Gamma-Ray Source Detection

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) for performing spectroscopic gamma-ray source identification have been previously introduced, primarily for applications in controlled laboratory settings. To understand the utility of these methods in scenarios and environments more relevant to nuclear safety and security, this work examines the use of ANNs for mobile detection, which involves highly variable gamma-ray background, low signal-to-noise ratio measurements, and low false alarm rates. Simulated data from a 2” × 4” × 16” NaI(Tl) detector are used in this work for demonstrating these concepts, and the minimum detectable activity (MDA) is used as a performance metric in assessing model performance.In addition to examining simultaneous detection and identification, binary spectral anomaly detection using autoencoders is introduced in this work, and benchmarked using detection methods based on Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). On average, the autoencoder provides a 12% and 23% improvement over NMF- and PCA-based detection methods, respectively. Additionally, source identification using ANNs is extended to leverage temporal dynamics by means of recurrent neural networks, and these time-dependent models outperform their time-independent counterparts by 17% for the analysis examined here. The paper concludes with a discussion on tradeoffs between the ANN-based approaches and the benchmark methods examined here.

Bilton, Kyle J. (ORCID:0000000184553689)↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Urban Deployment Model: A Toolset for the Simulation and Performance Characterization of Radiation Detector Deployments in Urban Environments

Static and mobile radiation detectors can be deployed in urban environments for a range of nuclear security applications, including radiological source search-and-tracking scenarios. Modeling detector performance for such applications is challenging, as it does not depend solely on the detector capabilities themselves. Many factors must be taken into consideration, including specific source and background signatures, the topology and constraints of the deployment environment, the presence of nuisance sources, and whether detectors are mobile or static. When considering the simultaneous deployment of multiple, heterogeneous detectors, assessment of the system-wide performance requires the simulation of the individual detectors, and a system-level analysis of the detection performance. In radiological source search-and-tracking scenarios, performance is mostly dominated by the probability of encounter, which depends on the specifics of a given deployment, e.g., static vs. mobile detectors or a combination of both modalities, the number of detectors deployed, the dynamic vs. static setting of false alarm rates, and individual vs. networked operation. The Urban Deployment Model (UDM) toolset was specifically developed to cover the gap in the available generic frameworks for the simulation of radiation detector deployments at city scales. UDM provides a unified and modular framework to support the simulation and performance characterization of heterogeneous detector deployments in urban environments. This paper presents the key components along the UDM workflow.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

GROWTH on S190814bv: Deep Synoptic Limits on the Optical/Near-infrared Counterpart to a Neutron Star–Black Hole Merger

On 2019 August 14, the Advanced LIGO and Virgo interferometers detected the high-significance gravitational wave (GW) signal S190814bv. The GW data indicated that the event resulted from a neutron star–black hole (NSBH) merger, or potentially a low-mass binary BH merger. Due to the low false-alarm rate and the precise localization (23 deg 2 at 90%), S190814bv presented the community with the best opportunity yet to directly observe an optical/near-infrared counterpart to an NSBH merger. To search for potential counterparts, the GROWTH Collaboration performed real-time image subtraction on six nights of public Dark Energy Camera images acquired in the 3 weeks following the merger, covering >98% of the localization probability. Using a worldwide network of follow-up facilities, we systematically undertook spectroscopy and imaging of optical counterpart candidates. Combining these data with a photometric redshift catalog, we ruled out each candidate as the counterpart to S190814bv and placed deep, uniform limits on the optical emission associated with S190814bv. For the nearest consistent GW distance, radiative transfer simulations of NSBH mergers constrain the ejecta mass of S190814bv to be M ej < 0.04 M ⊙ at polar viewing angles, or M ej < 0.03 M ⊙ if the opacity is κ < 2 cm 2 g -1 . Assuming a tidal deformability for the NS at the high end of the range compatible with GW170817 results, our limits would constrain the BH spin component aligned with the orbital momentum to be χ < 0.7 for mass ratios Q < 6, with weaker constraints for more compact NSs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multimessenger Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidence Alerts Using HAWC and IceCube Subthreshold Data

The High Altitude Water Cerenkov (HAWC) and IceCube observatories, through the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON) framework, have developed a multimessenger joint search for extragalactic astrophysical sources. This analysis looks for sources that emit both cosmic neutrinos and gamma rays that are produced in photohadronic or hadronic interactions. The AMON system is running continuously, receiving subthreshold data (i.e., data that are not suited on their own to do astrophysical searches) from HAWC and IceCube, and combining them in real time. Here we present the analysis algorithm, as well as results from archival data collected between 2015 June and 2018 August, with a total live time of 3.0 yr. During this period we found two coincident events that have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <1 coincidence yr -1 , consistent with the background expectations. The real-time implementation of the analysis in the AMON system began on 2019 November 20 and issues alerts to the community through the Gamma-ray Coordinates Network with an FAR threshold of <4 coincidences yr -1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidences Using HAWC and ANTARES Data

In the quest for high-energy neutrino sources, the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network has implemented a new search by combining data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory and the Astronomy with a Neutrino Telescope and Abyss environmental RESearch (ANTARES) neutrino telescope. Using the same analysis strategy as in a previous detector combination of HAWC and IceCube data, we perform a search for coincidences in HAWC and ANTARES events that are below the threshold for sending public alerts in each individual detector. Data were collected between 2015 July and 2020 February with a live time of 4.39 yr. Over this time period, three coincident events with an estimated false-alarm rate of <1 coincidence per year were found. This number is consistent with background expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks

We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Demonstration of the use of ADAPT to derive predictive maintenance algorithms for the KSC central heat plant

The Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) were employed to determine laws capable of detecting failures in a heat plant up to three days in advance of the occurrence of the failure. The projected performance of algorithms yielded a detection probability of 90% with false alarm rates of the order of 1 per year for a sample rate of 1 per day with each detection, followed by 3 hourly samplings. This performance was verified on 173 independent test cases. The program also demonstrated diagnostic algorithms and the ability to predict the time of failure to approximately plus or minus 8 hours up to three days in advance of the failure. The ADAPT programs produce simple algorithms which have a unique possibility of a relatively low cost updating procedure. The algorithms were implemented on general purpose computers at Kennedy Space Flight Center and tested against current data.

Hunter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A slope reversal video processor having amplitude and pulse width discrimination.

A timing discriminator whose output is relatively insensitive to input pulse width and amplitude is described. The video-handling technique is known as slope reversal processing and is based on tapped delay line estimation methods. The concept, design, breadboard construction, and preliminary laboratory test results are reviewed. The processor system features (1) a peak input voltage dynamic range of 80x starting at 100 microvolts; (2) a four stage preamplifier/line-driver having a voltage gain of 2400x; (3) a tapped delay-line estimator implemented for slope reversal triggering by differential comparison; (4) a nominal plus or minus 2.5 nsec shift of the output trigger leading edge over the entire input voltage range, (5) up to 7 dB discrimination against pulse widths less than 35 nsec; and (6) up to one order of magnitude reduction in the false alarm rate compared to a constant fraction system.

Hoge, F. E.↗