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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating boosted decision trees as a guide for inertial confinement fusion design

Inertial confined fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have recently entered a new regime approaching ignition. Improved modeling and exploration of the experimental parameter space were essential to deepening our understanding of the mechanisms that degrade and amplify the neutron yield. The growing prevalence of machine learning in fusion studies opens a new avenue for investigation. Here in this paper, we have applied the Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree machine-learning architecture to further explore the parameter space and find correlations with the neutron yield, a key performance indicator. We find reasonable agreement between the measured and predicted yield, with a mean absolute percentage error on a randomly assigned test set of 35.5%. This model finds the characteristics of the laser pulse to be the most influential in prediction, as well as the hohlraum laser entrance hole diameter and an enhanced capsule fabrication technique. We used the trained model to scan over the design space of experiments from three different campaigns to evaluate the potential of this technique to provide design changes that could improve the resulting neutron yield. While these data-driven model cannot predict ignition without examples of ignited shots in the training set, it can be used to indicate that an unseen shot design will at least be in the upper range of previously observed neutron yields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable boosted-decision-tree analysis for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator is a leading experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay with high purity germanium detectors (HPGe). Machine learning provides a new way to maximize the amount of information provided by these detectors, but the data-driven nature makes it less interpretable compared to traditional analysis. An interpretability study reveals the machine's decision-making logic, allowing us to learn from the machine to feedback to the traditional analysis. In this work, we have presented the first machine learning analysis of the data from the Majorana Demonstrator; this is also the first interpretable machine learning analysis of any germanium detector experiment. Two gradient boosted decision tree models are trained to learn from the data, and a game-theory-based model interpretability study is conducted to understand the origin of the classification power. By learning from data, this analysis recognizes the correlations among reconstruction parameters to further enhance the background rejection performance. By learning from the machine, this analysis reveals the importance of new background categories to reciprocally benefit the standard Majorana analysis. This model is highly compatible with next-generation germanium detector experiments like LEGEND since it can be simultaneously trained on a large number of detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Circular Velocity Curve of the Milky Way from 5–25 kpc Using Luminous Red Giant Branch Stars

We present a sample of 254,882 luminous red giant branch (LRGB) stars selected from the APOGEE and LAMOST surveys. By combining photometric and astrometric information from the Two Micron All Sky Survey and Gaia survey, the precise distances of the sample stars are determined by a supervised machine-learning algorithm: the gradient-boosted decision trees. To test the accuracy of the derived distances, member stars of globular clusters (GCs) and open clusters are used. The tests by cluster member stars show a precision of about 10% with negligible zero-point offsets, for the derived distances of our sample stars. The final sample covers a large volume of the Galactic disk(s) and halo of 0 < R < 30 kpc and |Z| ≤ 15 kpc. The rotation curve (RC) of the Milky Way across the radius of 5 ≲ R ≲ 25 kpc has been accurately measured with ~54,000 stars of the thin disk population selected from the LRGB sample. The derived RC shows a weak decline along R with a gradient of -1.83 ± 0.02 (stat.) ± 0.07 (sys.) km s -1 kpc -1 , in excellent agreement with the results measured by previous studies. The circular velocity at the solar position, yielded by our RC is 234.04 ± 0.08 (stat.) ± 1.36 (sys.) km s -1 , again in great consistency with other independent determinations. From the newly constructed RC, as well as constraints from other data, we have constructed a mass model for our Galaxy, yielding a mass of the dark matter halo of M 200 = (8.05 ± 1.15) × 10 11 M ⊙ with a corresponding radius of R 200 = 192.37 ± 9.24 kpc and a local dark matter density of 0.39 ± 0.03 GeV cm -3 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unraveling the Correlation between Raman and Photoluminescence in Monolayer MoS 2 through Machine‐Learning Models

Abstract 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) with intense and tunable photoluminescence (PL) have opened up new opportunities for optoelectronic and photonic applications such as light‐emitting diodes, photodetectors, and single‐photon emitters. Among the standard characterization tools for 2D materials, Raman spectroscopy stands out as a fast and non‐destructive technique capable of probing material's crystallinity and perturbations such as doping and strain. However, a comprehensive understanding of the correlation between photoluminescence and Raman spectra in monolayer MoS 2 remains elusive due to its highly nonlinear nature. Here, the connections between PL signatures and Raman modes are systematically explored, providing comprehensive insights into the physical mechanisms correlating PL and Raman features. This study's analysis further disentangles the strain and doping contributions from the Raman spectra through machine‐learning models. First, a dense convolutional network (DenseNet) to predict PL maps by spatial Raman maps is deployed. Moreover, a gradient boosted trees model (XGBoost) with Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to bridge the impact of individual Raman features in PL features is applied. Last, a support vector machine (SVM) to project PL features on Raman frequencies is adopted. This work may serve as a methodology for applying machine learning to characterizations of 2D materials.

Lu, Ang‐Yu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data‐Driven Insights into Rare Earth Mineralization: Machine Learning Applications Using Functional Material Synthesis Data

Understanding rare‐earth element (REE) mineralization mechanisms is essential for developing efficient separation strategies. Although the geochemical pathways that generate REE deposits are qualitatively known, quantitative links between specific conditions and mineralization outcomes remain limited. Herein, the repurpose laboratory REE hydrothermal synthesis data—originally collected for functional‐materials fabrication—as a surrogate for studying mineralization with data‐driven methods. The compiled 1,200+ hydrothermal reaction records and trained three machine‐learning models—K‐nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB)—to predict product elements and phases from precursors, additives, reaction conditions, and engineered features. Validation shows XGB achieves the highest accuracy. Feature importance indicates thermodynamic properties of cations and anions dominate model decisions. Correlations reveal positive relationships among precursor concentration, reaction time, pH, and temperature, consistent with classical crystallization behavior. XGB‐based regressors are built to predict crystallization temperature and pH from precursor/product attributes. Performance is strongest when similar training examples exist, while accuracy declines for underrepresented reactions, notably REE carbonates and heavy‐REE systems. Overall, the study shows that functional‐materials datasets can illuminate REE mineralization and provide priors for exploration and processing. Expanding datasets with less‐studied chemistries and conditions will improve generality and support deposit discovery and more efficient REE recovery.

feature importance analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based prediction of enzyme substrate scope: Application to bacterial nitrilases

Predicting the range of substrates accepted by an enzyme from its amino acid sequence is challenging. Although sequenc- and structure-based annotation approaches are often accurate for predicting broad categories of substrate specificity, they generally cannot predict which specific molecules will be accepted as substrates for a given enzyme, particularly within a class of closely related molecules. Combining targeted experimental activity data with structural modeling, ligand docking, and physicochemical properties of proteins and ligands with various machine learning models provides complementary information that can lead to accurate predictions of substrate scope for related enzymes. Here we describe such an approach that can predict the substrate scope of bacterial nitrilases, which catalyze the hydrolysis of nitrile compounds to the corresponding carboxylic acids and ammonia. Each of the four machine learning models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and support vector machines) performed similarly (average ROC = 0.9, average accuracy = ~82%) for predicting substrate scope for this dataset, although random forest offers some advantages. Finally, this approach is intended to be highly modular with respect to physicochemical property calculations and software used for structural modeling and docking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Market Feedback Framework for Improved Estimates of the Arbitrage Value of Energy Storage Using Price-Taker Models

Price-taker (PT) models are often used to assess the potential value or revenue of energy arbitrage opportunities for energy storage in wholesale markets. But as greater amounts of energy storage are deployed on the grid, current PT models fail to predict the effects that energy storage itself can have on market prices. This can lead to an overestimation of the economic value of storage and an inability to capture price suppression. In this paper, we propose the use of a modified PT model to simulate the impact of increased storage deployment on energy prices and the resulting impact on revenue. Our method uses a gradient-boosting regressor to estimate the impact on prices, and we apply our method on historical price data from the PJM and California Independent System Operator wholesale markets. We use this approach to explore possible causes of electricity price suppression that occur from storage capacity additions, which is generally not possible with PT models.

arbitrage↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid data-driven cement-stabilized soil design: An integration of machine learning, multi-objective optimization, and life cycle assessment

Soil stabilization is crucial in geotechnical engineering, yet conventional methods are often time-consuming, resource-intensive, and environmentally unsustainable. Despite growing interest in Machine Learning (ML) and optimization tools for mix design, few studies integrate these methods with decision-making techniques and environmental assessment to support practical implementation. This study proposes a hybrid data-driven framework for predicting strength, optimizing mix compositions, and evaluating environmental impacts via life cycle assessment of cement-stabilized soft soils. Six ML models were evaluated, and the top-performing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model was further improved using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The optimized XGB-GWO model, integrated with a polynomial cost function, served as the objective function in a multi-objective optimization problem solved via the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with final mix selection guided by the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Validation through a case study produced mix designs offering superior strength-cost trade-offs, with the optimal mix achieving 2243.2 kPa unconfined compressive strength and a 16.07 % reduction in carbon emissions compared to the highest-cost design. In conclusion, this study offers a sustainable, scalable approach to soil stabilization and supports informed decision-making in construction.

Life cycle assessment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Growing grasses in unprofitable areas of US Midwest croplands could increase species richness

The US has large potential to grow perennial energy crops, but because these crops are rarely grown in current agricultural landscapes, it is unclear how biodiversity may be affected. Over time, as agriculture has increased, many grassland species have declined. In addition, not all agricultural land is profitable for growing annual crops. Unprofitable areas were responsible for a loss of approximately $110 million USD per year from 2013 to 2016. Based on this, we want to know how converting less-profitable portions of agricultural fields to switchgrass, a native prairie grass, would influence species occurrence. To address this question, we developed an alternative landscape in which clustered corn/soy acres with a low return on investment (ROI) were replaced with grassland. We also developed and validated species distribution models to predict changes in species occurrence for 28 avian species in Iowa in response to landscape management. Furthermore, we compared results for three different models: Random forest (RF), Stochastic gradient boosting (GBM), and Neural network (Nnet) and found that all models performed well and predicted similar species distribution. Predicted species richness increased by 3.66% (RF), 2.79% (GBM), and 7.51% (Nnet) when we simulated a change in management for ~3% of Iowa's low ROI corn/soybean areas to grassland. If harvested, these areas could generate approximately 7.6 million dry tons/year of switchgrass for bioenergy, thereby increasing farmers earnings. Unprofitable areas tended to occur along streams, which suggest that incorporating partially harvested riparian buffers can benefit avian biodiversity, while improving water quality and reducing unnecessary costs for farmers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning–assisted prediction of heat fluxes through thermally anisotropic building envelopes

Thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is a novel active building envelope that can save energy use to maintain thermal comfort in buildings by redirecting heat and coolness from building envelopes to thermal loops. Finite element models (FEMs) can be used to compute the heat fluxes through TABEs, but the high computational cost of finite element simulations has prevented parametric studies and design optimizations. This paper proposes a domain knowledge–informed, finite element–based machine learning framework to reduce the computation cost for the energy management of buildings installed with TABE that uses a ground thermal loop. First, the training heat flux data set was generated by FEM simulations with different thermal loop schedules. Then, both shallow learning models (i.e., multivariate linear regression and eXtreme Gradient Boost, or XGBoost) and a deep learning model (i.e., deep neural network, or DNN) were trained to predict the heat fluxes. Domain knowledge was used for data preprocessing and feature selection. Finally, the suitability of the selected machine learning model was tested under different thermal loop schedules. Herein, the case study results showed that: (1) XGBoost can be as accurate as DNN (coefficient of determination equal to 0.81) with much less training time; (2) the annual energy cost savings for different thermal loop schedules obtained by the XGBoost-predicted and FEM-calculated heat fluxes are consistent, having a difference of only 4%; and (3) XGBoost can reduce the computation time for the annual energy analysis of the case study building with a given thermal loop schedule from around 12 h by using FEM to less than 1 min.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linear model decision trees as surrogates in optimization of engineering applications

Machine learning models are promising as surrogates in optimization when replacing difficult to solve equations or black-box type models. This work demonstrates the viability of linear model decision trees as piecewise-linear surrogates in decision-making problems. Linear model decision trees can be represented exactly in mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and mixed-integer quadratic constrained programming (MIQCP) formulations. Furthermore, they can represent discontinuous functions, bringing advantages over neural networks in some cases. We present several formulations using transformations from Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) formulations and modifications of MILP formulations for gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT). We then compare the computational performance of these different MILP and MIQCP representations in an optimization problem and illustrate their use on engineering applications. Importantly, we observe faster solution times for optimization problems with linear model decision tree surrogates when compared with GBDT surrogates using the Optimization and Machine Learning Toolkit (OMLT).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Charged particle reconstruction in CLAS12 using Machine Learning

In this work, we present studies of track parameter reconstruction from raw information in CLAS12 detector's Drift Chambers, using Machine Learning (ML). We study the resolution of tracks reconstructed with different types of ML models/algorithms, including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) and Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT) using simulated data. We find that the resulting ML model is capable of reconstructing track parameters (particle momentum, and polar and azimuthal angles) with accuracy similar to Hit Based (HB) tracking code, but $150$ times faster. Moreover, physics reactions can be identified using the particles reconstructed by the neural network in real-time (with a rate of about $34~kHz$) during experimental data collection. The developed model can be used in numerous applications, such as triggering specific physics reactions in real-time, detector performance monitoring, and real-time detector calibration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗