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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Enhancing thermal resilience of US residential homes in hot humid climates during extreme temperature events

Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events such as winter storms and heat waves due to climate change pose enormous safety and health-related risks to people, particularly in economically disadvantaged communities. In this study, we investigate some of the most promising retrofittable and weatherization methods to keep the living zone of residential buildings within an acceptable safety level. We use hours of safety as the resilience metric, which is defined as the time taken by the building's indoor environment to reach a safety threshold temperature. We first identify various passive measures, such as adding extra insulation, improving air sealing, and integrating phase-change materials, which can operate without any external power during winter-storm and heat-wave events. We then employ a whole-building simulation tool to examine the impact of various combinations of retrofit measures and conduct a parametric study to determine the optimal solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling to urban morphological feature inputs and implications for characterizing urban sustainability

We examine the differences in meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 270 m horizontal resolution using 10 m, 100 m and 1 km resolution 3D neighborhood morphological inputs and with no morphological inputs. We find that the spatial variability in temperature, humidity, and other meteorological variables across the city can vary with the resolution and the coverage of the 3D urban morphological input, and that larger differences occur between simulations run without 3D morphological input and those run with some type of 3D morphology. We also find that the inclusion of input-building-defined roughness length calculations would improve simulation results further. We show that these inputs produce different patterns of heat wave spatial heterogeneity across the city of Washington, DC. These findings suggest that understanding neighborhood level urban sustainability under extreme heat waves, especially for vulnerable neighborhoods, requires attention to the representation of surface terrain in numerical weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Collaborative Research: Unravelling the Physics Associated with the Production of Extremely Dense Plasma States of Microscale (Final Report) Nanosecond-pulsed Discharges

The aim of this project is to study and establish the physical mechanisms that contribute to the formation of anomalously dense plasmas in high-pressure nanosecond-pulsed discharges. These discharges have a broad range of applications such as plasma-assisted combustion, plasma flow actuators, biomedical sterilization and exotic materials synthesis. The structure and formation of these discharges, producing high plasma densities of ~10 14 -10 15 cm -3 , are well-studied and understood. Fast-pulsed microscale high-pressure discharges can be driven to even higher densities of > 10 19 cm -3 , approaching warm dense matter conditions. The mechanisms that generate these plasmas have not been understood. Analysis of the warm dense matter state under laboratory conditions is an expensive and non-trivial endeavor. For instance, dense plasmas can be generated by electrical explosions of metal foils and wires. Plasmas generated after the explosion have a short lifetime and often present difficult conditions for diagnostics. Generation of dense plasmas was also achieved during high-voltage nanosecond pulsed discharges when the so-called explosive electron emission is obtained. Unfortunately, this process is very difficult to control for the studies of warm dense matter. In our recent study, we have shown that additional heating of plasma by lasers can further increase the density of plasma and even lead to the fully ionized state. This method, potentially, allows better control of the plasma parameters. In this work, we studied a second stage laser-heated micro-discharge using a self-consistent one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (1D PIC-MCC) model coupled with Maxwell’s equations. We predicted the generation of a fully ionized plasma on the picosecond time scale. However, this model considered the plasma as an ideal gas despite the high pressure and the nearly fully ionized state. The ideal plasma model assumes that the dilute gas approximation is valid, where the inter-particle interactions are negligible. For charged particles this assumption holds as long as the shielded Coulomb potential assumption is valid. For very high plasma densities, this concept breaks down since the Debye sphere surrounding each charged particle no longer contains enough electrons to statistically provide the shielding of the single particle Coulomb interaction potential. At such densities, the plasma can no longer be described as ideal and non-ideal coupling effects need to be considered. In this report, we elucidate our recent work of developing a PIC-MCC model with improvements for non-ideal plasma conditions due to Coulomb coupling at high densities. In particular, we study the interaction of green light radiation and a dense microplasma, and explore the non-ideal plasma effects in this interaction. In this computational model, we implement the two most important non-ideal effects: ionization potential depression (IPD) and enhanced collision cross sections. Our primary goal is to study the physics associated with electromagnetic (EM) wave heating, also called the second-stage wave-heating, and establish the role of plasma non-ideality in this phenomenon. Our secondary goal is to improve the chemistry mechanism of the 1D PIC-MCC model by including a more detailed excited species collision treatment. At high pressures, stepwise ionization from excited species might play an important role in the ionization process. Previously, this ionization mechanism was neglected due to the excitation collision cross section of xenon being smaller than that of ionization. However, a preliminary study showed that the excited species density in the initial microplasma was an order of magnitude higher than the electron density. Therefore, my aim is to determine the significance of this additional ionization pathway to the plasma generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator: Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance

The Multi-scenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) is a stochastic weather generation tool. The MEWS algorithm uses 50 or more years of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) daily summaries [1] for maximum and minimum temperature and NOAA climate norms [2] to calculate historical heat wave and cold snap statistics. The algorithm takes these statistics and shifts them according to multiplication factors provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical basis technical summary [3] for heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Study of Alfvén Wave Reflection from an Alfvén-speed Gradient Relevant to the Solar Coronal Holes

Abstract We report the first experimental detection of a reflected Alfvén wave from an Alfvén-speed gradient under conditions similar to those in coronal holes. The experiments were conducted in the Large Plasma Device at the University of California, Los Angeles. We present the experimentally measured dependence of the coefficient of reflection versus the wave inhomogeneity parameter, i.e., the ratio of the wavelength of the incident wave to the length scale of the gradient. Two-fluid simulations using the Gkeyll code qualitatively agree with and support the experimental findings. Our experimental results support models of wave heating that rely on wave reflection at low heights from a smooth Alfvén-speed gradient to drive turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 6: Universal Access to Safe and Comfortable Home Temperatures

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and cooling technologies as means to increase access to safe and comfortable home temperatures. Lack of cooling access and use can have severe health impacts on building occupants during heat waves. Specifically, NREL developed and used a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We compared a baseline scenario with seven upgrade scenarios. Five scenarios cooled the entire household and featured cooling systems at varying efficiency levels with various improvements to the envelope, roof, and shading, and two scenarios cooled a single room in a household with no prior cooling using either a room air-conditioning or a heat pump system. For each scenario, we evaluated impacts on utility bills, payback periods, and changes in energy burdens, as well as ability to achieve safe and comfortable temperatures. We also examined the effects of building types (multifamily vs. single-family) on indoor air temperatures. Based on the results of modeling, analysis, and community guidance, we identified six short-term and two long-term strategies for improving access to building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for Los Angeles' low-income households during heat waves. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

air conditioning↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling thermal radiation waves in silica plasmas for the Mooncat NIF experiment

The Mooncat experiment on the National Ignition Facility uses a laser-driven hohlraum to create a thermal radiation wave in a titanium-doped silica plasma. The titanium dopant enables absorption spectroscopy measurements to infer the temperature of the wave as it propagates. This measurement can be used to constrain multi-physics simulation codes to better understand when simulations do not match an experiment. In this paper, we present radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of the thermal radiation wave in the first full-platform shots of the Mooncat experiment. We examine the important parameters of the simulation, focusing on the radiation temperature source, the material model of the silica plasma as it pertains to radiation transport, and lateral leakage through a beryllium tube enclosing the silica. We compare different simulation modeling strategies to an analytic model of diffusive radiation transport and find that the simulation agrees with the analytic model when it is sufficiently simplified. These simulations show how radiation energy couples to matter to develop a shock wave in a radiative heat wave, an important topic in astrophysics and nuclear fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Passive cooling designs to improve heat resilience of homes in underserved and vulnerable communities

Disadvantaged communities face a growing threat to staying safe during heat waves, especially during coincident power outages. This study develops a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of passive cooling measures (those that operate without power) to improve residential building heat resilience. Building performance is simulated for representative homes and on district scales in two disadvantaged communities in Fresno, California. Eleven passive measures are evaluated using four heat resilience metrics with and without grid power. Results show performance of the mitigation measures varies by building characteristics, surrounding environment, and power scenario. The two most effective measures were installing solar-control window films and adding roof insulation. For pre-1978 single-family homes, these two measures can reduce unmet degree-hours (UDH) indoors by 12% and 11% respectively without grid power, or 28% and 37% with grid power. Their respective UDH reductions at district scale typically range 8% — 20% and 4% — 12% without grid power, or 14% — 44% and 8% — 51% with grid power. Top floors have higher overheating risk than lower floors during extreme heat events with coincident power outages. Natural ventilation can help, reducing UDH by 21% — 26%. The methodology and findings from this study can help cities, communities, and utilities develop effective and targeted strategies to promote greater residential heat resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulations of ion heating due to ion-acoustic instabilities in presheaths

Particle-in-cell, direct simulation Monte Carlo simulations reveal that ion-acoustic instabilities excited in presheaths can cause significant ion heating. Ion-acoustic instabilities are excited by the ion flow toward a sheath when the neutral gas pressure is small enough and the electron temperature is large enough. A series of 1D simulations were conducted in which neutral plasma (electrons and ions) was uniformly sourced with an ion temperature of 0.026 eV and different electron temperatures (0.1 eV–50 eV). Ion heating was observed when the electron-to-ion temperature ratio exceeded the minimum value predicted by linear response theory to excite ion-acoustic instabilities at the sheath edge (T e /T i ≈ 28). When this threshold was exceeded, the temperature equilibration rate between ions and electrons rapidly increased near the sheath so that the local temperature ratio did not significantly exceed the threshold for instability. This resulted in significant ion heating near the sheath edge, which also extended back into the bulk plasma; presumably due to wave reflection from the sheath. Furthermore, this ion-acoustic wave heating mechanism was found to decrease for higher neutral pressures, where ion-neutral collisions damp the ion-acoustic waves and ion heating is instead dominated by inelastic collisions in the presheath.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Plant heat stress: Concepts directing future research

Predicted increases in future global temperatures require us to better understand the dimensions of heat stress experienced by plants. In this review we highlight four key areas for improving our approach towards understanding plant heat stress responses. First, although the term "heat stress" is broadly used, that term encompasses heat shock, heat wave, and warming experiments, which vary in the duration and magnitude of temperature increase imposed. A greater integration of results and tools across these approaches is needed to better understand how heat stress associated with global warming will affect plants. Secondly, there is a growing need to associate plant responses to tissue temperatures. We review how plant energy budgets determine tissue temperature and discuss the implications of using leaf versus air temperature for heat stress studies. Third, we need to better understand how heat stress affects reproduction, particularly understudied stages such as floral meristem initiation and development. Fourth, we emphasize the need to integrate heat-stress recovery into breeding programs to complement recent progress in improving plant heat-stress tolerance. Taken together, we provide insights into key research gaps in plant heat stress and provide suggestions on addressing these gaps to enhance heat stress resilience in plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Heat Pumps Can Bring Relief to Households

An estimated 230,000 low-income households in Los Angeles lack access to cooling and are projected to experience more than two months of dangerous indoor temperatures (above 86 F) by 2035. Multifamily building residents are at much higher risk of dangerous heat exposure. Through robust modeling and analysis in the LA100 Equity Strategies project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) identified strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for low-income households during heat waves, including the installation of whole-home heat pumps.

buildings↗

Cool rooms for indoor heat resilience: Evaluating affordable cooling strategies in heat-stressed California homes

Extreme heat conditions pose significant indoor survivability challenges for resource-constrained communities, which often lack access to cooling, have poorly insulated homes, and face compounding socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Moreover, concurrent power outages worsen health risks and heat-related illnesses. It is therefore crucial to develop innovative and affordable cooling approaches to protect vulnerable populations. This study assesses the efficacy of “cool rooms”– a designated space within a home equipped with passive and low-power active cooling measures to maintain safe indoor temperatures during extreme heat events and power disruptions. Using a physics-based building energy modeling approach, we evaluate the efficacy of various retrofit packages in maintaining thermal safety within the cool room under recent extreme heat conditions. The results indicate that passive measures can reduce 64% of hours with unmet standard effective temperatures, while the combination of passive and low-power active measures with built-in batteries further cuts this to 86%. Nevertheless, these strategies remain insufficient to maintain indoor thermal safety during extended outages. In contrast, integrating a solar-powered mini-split heat pump, whose technical potential was evaluated in this study, reduces indoor air temperatures below the 28 °C overheating threshold and significantly improves indoor habitability. The localized cool room strategy also offers potential for grid resilience by reducing peak electricity demand by up to 70% compared to whole house cooling during heat waves. The findings can inform the development of actionable heat mitigation plans and retrofit policies for residential communities with relatively low adoption of air conditioning such as warm marine climates.

Cool room↗