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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DES Y1 results: Splitting growth and geometry to test $\Lambda$CDM

We analyze Dark Energy Survey (DES) data to constrain a cosmological model where a subset of parameters—focusing on Ωm—are split into versions associated with structure growth (e.g., Ωmgrow) and expansion history (e.g., Ωmgeo). Once the parameters have been specified for the ΛCDM cosmological model, which includes general relativity as a theory of gravity, it uniquely predicts the evolution of both geometry (distances) and the growth of structure over cosmic time. Any inconsistency between measurements of geometry and growth could therefore indicate a breakdown of that model. Our growth-geometry split approach therefore serves both as a (largely) model-independent test for beyond-ΛCDM physics, and as a means to characterize how DES observables provide cosmological information. We analyze the same multiprobe DES data as [Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 171301 (2019)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.122.171301] : DES Year 1 (Y1) galaxy clustering and weak lensing, which are sensitive to both growth and geometry, as well as Y1 BAO and Y3 supernovae, which probe geometry. We additionally include external geometric information from BOSS DR12 BAO and a compressed Planck 2015 likelihood, and external growth information from BOSS DR12 RSD. We find no significant disagreement with Ωmgrow=Ωmgeo. When DES and external data are analyzed separately, degeneracies with neutrino mass and intrinsic alignments limit our ability to measure Ωmgrow, but combining DES with external data allows us to constrain both growth and geometric quantities. We also consider a parametrization where we split both Ωm and w, but find that even our most constraining data combination is unable to separately constrain Ωmgrow and wgrow. Relative to ΛCDM, splitting growth and geometry weakens bounds on σ8 but does not alter constraints on h.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data compression and covariance matrix inspection: Cosmic shear

Covariance matrices are among the most difficult pieces of end-to-end cosmological analyses. In principle, for two-point functions, each component involves a four-point function, and the resulting covariance often has hundreds of thousands of elements. We investigate various compression mechanisms capable of vastly reducing the size of the covariance matrix in the context of cosmic shear statistics. This helps identify which of its parts are most crucial to parameter estimation. We start with simple compression methods, by isolating and “removing” 200 modes associated with the lowest eigenvalues, then those with the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, before moving on to more sophisticated schemes like compression at the tomographic level and, finally, with the massively optimized parameter estimation and data compression (MOPED). We find that, while most of these approaches prove useful for a few parameters of interest, like Ω m , the simplest yield a loss of constraining power on the intrinsic alignment (IA) parameters as well as S 8 . For the case considered—cosmic shear from the first year of data from the Dark Energy Survey—only MOPED was able to replicate the original constraints in the 16-parameter space. Finally, we apply a tolerance test to the elements of the compressed covariance matrix obtained with MOPED and confirm that the IA parameter A IA is the most susceptible to inaccuracies in the covariance matrix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: High-precision measurement and modeling of galaxy-galaxy lensing

We present and characterize the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal measured using the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) covering 4132 deg 2 . These galaxy-galaxy measurements are used in the DES Y3 3 × 2 pt cosmological analysis, which combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We use two lens samples: a magnitude-limited sample and the redmagic sample, which span the redshift range ∼ 0.2 – 1 with 10.7 and 2.6 M galaxies, respectively. For the source catalog, we use the metacalibration shape sample, consisting of ≃ 100 M galaxies separated into four tomographic bins. Our galaxy-galaxy lensing estimator is the mean tangential shear, for which we obtain a total SNR of ∼ 148 for maglim ( ∼ 120 for redmagic), and ∼ 67 ( ∼ 55 ) after applying the scale cuts of 6 Mpc / h . Thus we reach percent-level statistical precision, which requires that our modeling and systematic-error control be of comparable accuracy. The tangential shear model used in the 3 × 2 pt cosmological analysis includes lens magnification, a five-parameter intrinsic alignment model, marginalization over a point mass to remove information from small scales and a linear galaxy bias model validated with higher-order terms. We explore the impact of these choices on the tangential shear observable and study the significance of effects not included in our model, such as reduced shear, source magnification, and source clustering. We also test the robustness of our measurements to various observational and systematics effects, such as the impact of observing conditions, lens-source clustering, random-point subtraction, scale-dependent metacalibration responses, point spread function residuals, and B modes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear power spectra

Here, we measure weak lensing cosmic shear power spectra from the 3-year galaxy shear catalog of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program imaging survey. The shear catalog covers 416 deg 2 of the northern sky, with a mean i-band seeing of 0.59 arcsec and an effective galaxy number density of 15 arcmin —2 within our adopted redshift range. With an i-band magnitude limit of 24.5 mag, and four tomographic redshift bins spanning 0.3 ≤ z ph ≤ 1.5 based on photometric redshifts, we obtain a high-significance measurement of the cosmic shear power spectra, with a signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 26.4 in the multipole range 300 < ℓ < 1800. The accuracy of our power spectrum measurement is tested against realistic mock shear catalogs, and we use these catalogs to get a reliable measurement of the covariance of the power spectrum measurements. We use a robust blinding procedure to avoid confirmation bias, and model various uncertainties and sources of bias in our analysis, including point spread function systematics, redshift distribution uncertainties, the intrinsic alignment of galaxies and the modeling of the matter power spectrum. For a flat Λ CDM model, we find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = ${0.776}_{—0.033}^{+0.032}$, which is in excellent agreement with the constraints from the other HSC Year 3 cosmology analyses, as well as those from a number of other cosmic shear experiments. This result implies a ~2σ-level tension with the Planck 2018 cosmology. We study the effect that various systematic errors and modeling choices could have on this value, and find that they can shift the best-fit value of S 8 by no more than ~ 0.5σ, indicating that our result is robust to such systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3: Blue shear

Modeling the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies poses a challenge to weak lensing analyses. Here, using the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 shape catalog, we expect less impact from IA when we limit the sample to blue, star-forming galaxies. The cosmological parameter constraints from this BLUE cosmic shear sample are stable to IA model choice, unlike passive galaxies in the full DES Y3 sample, the goodness-of-fit is improved and the Ω m and 𝑆 8 better agree with the observations from Planck on the cosmic microwave background. Mitigating IA with sample selection in DES, rather than flexible model choices, can reduce uncertainty in 𝑆 8 by a factor of 1.5.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DES Y3 + KiDS-1000: Consistent cosmology combining cosmic shear surveys

We present a joint cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) in a collaborative effort between the two survey teams. We find consistent cosmological parameter constraints between DES Y3 and KiDS-1000 which, when combined in a joint-survey analysis, constrain the parameter $S_8 = \sigma_8 \sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}$ with a mean value of $0.790^{+0.018}_{-0.014}$. The mean marginal is lower than the maximum a posteriori estimate, $S_8=0.801$, owing to skewness in the marginal distribution and projection effects in the multi-dimensional parameter space. Our results are consistent with $S_8$ constraints from observations of the cosmic microwave background by Planck, with agreement at the $1.7\sigma$ level. We use a Hybrid analysis pipeline, defined from a mock survey study quantifying the impact of the different analysis choices originally adopted by each survey team. We review intrinsic alignment models, baryon feedback mitigation strategies, priors, samplers and models of the non-linear matter power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmic Shear Analysis in the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey

We forecast cosmological constraints and develop a cosmic shear analysis pipeline for the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE). We test the effects of two different intrinsic alignment frameworks (TATT and NLA) on simulated data vectors. In addition, we examine the impact of baryon contamination and apply scale cuts to reduce its weight. We find the forecast results to be as constraining as the DES Y3 cosmological parameter measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The correlation function of galaxy ellipticities produced by gravitational lensing

The correlation of galaxy ellipticities produced by gravitational lensing is calculated as a function of the power spectrum of density fluctuations in the universe by generalizing an analytical method developed by Gunn (1967). The method is applied to a model where identical objects with spherically symmetric density profiles are randomly laid down in space, and to the cold dark matter model. The possibility of detecting this correlation is discussed. Although an ellipticity correlation can also be caused by an intrinsic alignment of the axes of galaxies belonging to a cluster or a supercluster, a method is suggested by which one type of correlation can be distinguished from another. The advantage of this ellipticity correlation is that it is one of the few astronomical observations that can directly probe large-scale mass fluctuations in the universe.

Miralda-Escude, Jordi↗

Strong detection of the CMB lensing and galaxy weak lensing cross-correlation from ACT-DR4, Planck Legacy, and KiDS-1000

We measured the cross-correlation between galaxy weak lensing data from the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS-1000, DR4) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT, DR4) and the Planck Legacy survey. We used two samples of source galaxies, selected with photometric redshifts, (0.1 < z(B) < 1.2) and (1.2 < z(B) < 2), which produce a combined detection significance of the CMB lensing and weak galaxy lensing cross-spectrum of 7.7σ. With the lower redshift galaxy sample, for which the cross-correlation was detected at a significance of 5.3σ, we present joint cosmological constraints on the matter density parameter, Ω(m), and the matter fluctuation amplitude parameter, σ(8), marginalising over three nuisance parameters that model our uncertainty in the redshift and shear calibration as well as the intrinsic alignment of galaxies. We find our measurement to be consistent with the best-fitting flat ΛCDM cosmological models from both Planck and KiDS-1000. We demonstrate the capacity of CMB weak lensing cross-correlations to set constraints on either the redshift or shear calibration by analysing a previously unused high-redshift KiDS galaxy sample (1.2 < z(B) < 2), with the cross-correlation detected at a significance of 7σ. This analysis provides an independent assessment for the accuracy of redshift measurements in a regime that is challenging to calibrate directly owing to known incompleteness in spectroscopic surveys.

Naomi Clare Robertson↗

DES Y3 + KiDS-1000: Consistent Cosmology Combining Cosmic Shear Surveys

We present a joint cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) in a collaborative effort between the two survey teams. We find consistent cosmological parameter constraints between DES Y3 and KiDS-1000 which, when combined in a joint-survey analysis, constrain the parameter S 8 =σ 8 √(Ω m /0.3) with a mean value of 0.790 +0.018 −0.014. The mean marginal is lower than the maximum a posteriori estimate, S 8 =0.801, owing to skewness in the marginal distribution and projection effects in the multi-dimensional parameter space. Our results are consistent with S 8 constraints from observations of the cosmic microwave background by Planck, with agreement at the 1.7 σ level. We use a Hybrid analysis pipeline, defined from a mock survey study quantifying the impact of the different analysis choices originally adopted by each survey team. We review intrinsic alignment models, baryon feedback mitigation strategies, priors, samplers and models of the non-linear matter power spectrum.

cosmology↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Multi-Probe Modeling Strategy and Validation

This paper details the modeling pipeline and validates the baseline analysis choices of the DES Year 3 joint analysis of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (a so-called "3$\times$2pt" analysis). These analysis choices include the specific combination of cosmological probes, priors on cosmological and systematics parameters, model parameterizations for systematic effects and related approximations, and angular scales where the model assumptions are validated. We run a large number of simulated likelihood analyses using synthetic data vectors to test the robustness of our baseline analysis. We demonstrate that the DES Year 3 modeling pipeline, including the calibrated scale cuts, is sufficiently accurate relative to the constraining power of the DES Year 3 analyses. Our systematics mitigation strategy accounts for astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, source and lens magnification, baryonic effects, and source clustering, as well as for uncertainties in modeling the matter power spectrum, reduced shear, and estimator effects. We further demonstrate excellent agreement between two independently-developed modeling pipelines, and thus rule out any residual uncertainties due to the numerical implementation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmic Shear Analysis of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey

We forecast cosmological constraints and develop a cosmic shear analysis pipeline for the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE). We test the effects of two different intrinsic alignment frameworks (TATT and NLA) on synthetic data vectors. In addition, we examine the impact of baryon contamination and determine the necessary scale cuts to reduce its influence. We find the forecast results to be as constraining as the DES Y3 cosmological parameter measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3: Blue Shear

Modeling the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies poses a challenge to weak lensing analyses. The Dark Energy Survey is expected to be less impacted by IA when limited to blue, star-forming galaxies. The cosmological parameter constraints from this blue cosmic shear sample are stable to IA model choice, unlike passive galaxies in the full DES Y3 sample, the goodness-of-fit is improved and the $\Omega_{m}$ and $S_8$ better agree with the cosmic microwave background. Mitigating IA with sample selection, instead of flexible model choices, can reduce uncertainty in $S_8$ by a factor of 1.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validation of the DESI-DR1 3x2-pt analysis: scale cut and shear ratio tests

Combined survey analyses of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing (3x2-pt studies) will allow new and accurate tests of the standard cosmological model. However, careful validation is necessary to ensure that these cosmological constraints are not biased by uncertainties associated with the modelling of astrophysical or systematic effects. In this study we validate the combined 3x2-pt analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) spectroscopic galaxy clustering and overlapping weak lensing datasets from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). By propagating the modelling uncertainties associated with the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and baryon feedback, we design scale cuts to ensure that measurements of the matter density and the amplitude of the matter power spectrum are biased by less than 30% of the statistical error. We also test the internal consistency of the data and weak lensing systematics by performing new measurements of the lensing shear ratio. We demonstrate that the DESI-DR1 shear ratios can be successfully fit by the same model used to describe cosmic shear correlations, and analyse the additional information that can be extracted about the source redshift distributions and intrinsic alignment parameters. This study serves as crucial preparation for the upcoming cosmological parameter analysis of these datasets.

Emas, N. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercompu↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗