Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “model credibility”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Overview of NASA's Program of Future M&S VV&A Outreach and Training Activities

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model s fidelity, credibility, and quality. The Integrated Modeling & Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (IM&S W&A) process will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model s results for mission-critical decisions. The W&A Technical Working Group (W&A TWG) has been identified to communicate this process throughout the agency. As the W&A experts, the W&A NVG will be the central resource for support of W&A policy, procedures, training and templates for documentation. This presentation will discuss the W&A Technical Working Group s outreach approach aimed at educating M&S program managers, developers, users and proponents on the W&A process, beginning at MSFC with the CLV program.

Caine, Lisa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Pitfalls in Microstructure-Based Modeling for Thermally Aged 9Cr-1Mo-V Steel (Grade 91)

A case study was conducted on a mechanistic model development that predicted tensile strength deterioration with thermal aging of 9Cr-1Mo-V steel in supporting the 60-year design life expected for advanced nuclear reactors. For property prediction beyond practical testing times, mechanistic modeling is highly desired, as it taps into the physics of structure–property relationships and therefore can generate reliable results for extrapolation. Meanwhile, as mechanistic models are often complicated, reflecting the intricacy of microstructure and strengthening mechanisms, pitfalls that are difficult to detect often exist. Here, this paper discusses latent pitfalls that are common in mechanistic modeling or specific in this 9Cr-1Mo-V case development through using the American Society of Mechanical Engineers verification and validation in computational solid mechanics (ASME V&V 10) standard for evaluating credibility of modeling in materials engineering. Suggestions are also made for enhancing reliability of microstructure-based modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Wind-forced variability of the deep eastern north Pacific: Observations of seafloor pressure and abyssal currents

Data from an array of bottom pressure gauges and a string of current meters in the vicinity of 47 deg N, 139 deg W, are used to examine the deep-ocean variability forced by ocean surface wind stress curl from August 1987 to June 1988. Bottom geostrophic currents are computed from the pressure gauge array, and these correspond well to the long-period directly measured currents at 3000 m. The supratidal-period bottom pressure variations are coherent at 95% confidence with the wind stress curl in period bands of 3-4 days and 15-60 days but removed in distances of 400 and 700 km to the northwest and the southeast, respectively. A linear, two-layer hydrodynamic model is used to examine the theoretical forcing produced by random-phased surface wind fields for the conditions of the eastern north Pacific and the 15- to 60-day-period observed response is reproduced credibly. To model 3- to 15-day variations, more realistic models are required.

Niller, P. P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Component performance requirements

Component data are essential for modelling the overall performance of gas turbines. The component characteristics are not easily obtained, and much of the data are proprietary and not available in the open literature. Several methods are available for estimating component characteristics and are briefly described. The requirements of users and manufacturers are quite different, but both can produce fully credible performance models.

H I H Saravanamuttoo↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Effect of Wake Passing on Turbine Blade Film Cooling

The effect of upstream blade row wake passing on the showerhead film cooling performance of a downstream turbine blade has been investigated through a combination of experimental and computational studies. The experiments were performed in a steady-flow annular turbine cascade facility equipped with an upstream rotating row of cylindrical rods to produce a periodic wake field similar to that found in an actual turbine. Spanwise, chordwise, and temporal resolution of the blade surface temperature were achieved through the use of an array of nickel thin-film surface gauges covering one unit cell of showerhead film hole pattern. Film effectiveness and Nusselt number values were determined for a test matrix of various injectants, injectant blowing ratios, and wake Strouhal numbers. Results indicated a demonstratable reduction in film effectiveness with increasing Strouhal number, as well as the expected increase in film effectiveness with blowing ratio. An equation was developed to correlate the span-average film effectiveness data. The primary effect of wake unsteadiness was found to be correlated well by a chordwise-constant decrement of 0.094-St. Measurable spanwise film effectiveness variations were found near the showerhead region, but meaningful unsteady variations and downstream spanwise variations were not found. Nusselt numbers were less sensitive to wake and injection changes. Computations were performed using a three-dimensional turbulent Navier-Stokes code which was modified to model wake passing and film cooling. Unsteady computations were found to agree well with steady computations provided the proper time-average blowing ratio and pressure/suction surface flow split are matched. The remaining differences were isolated to be due to the enhanced mixing in the unsteady solution caused by the wake sweeping normally on the pressure surface. Steady computations were found to be in excellent agreement with experimental Nusselt numbers, but to overpredict experimental film effectiveness values. This is likely due to the inability to match actual hole exit velocity profiles and the absence of a credible turbulence model for film cooling.

Heidmann, James David↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Assessment of Data-driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The development of a high-resolution Eulerian radiation-hydrodynamics simulation capability for laser-driven Hohlraums

Hohlraums are hollow cylindrical cavities with high-Z material walls used to convert laser energy into uniform x-ray radiation drives for inertial confinement fusion capsule implosions and high energy density physics experiments. Credible computational modeling of hohlraums requires detailed modeling and coupling of laser physics, hydrodynamics, radiation transport, heat transport, and atomic physics. We report on improvements to Los Alamos National Laboratory's xRAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code in order to enable hohlraum modeling. xRAGE's Eulerian hydrodynamics and adaptive mesh refinement make it uniquely well suited to study the impacts of multiscale features in hohlraums. In order to provide confidence in this new modeling capability, we demonstrate xRAGE's ability to produce reasonable agreement with data from several benchmark hohlraum experiments. We also use xRAGE to perform integrated simulations of a recent layered high density carbon capsule implosion on the National Ignition Facility in order to evaluate the potential impacts of the capsule support tent, mixed cell conductivity methodologies, plasma transport, and cross-beam energy transfer (XBT). We find that XBT, seeded by plasma flows in the laser entrance hole (LEH), causes a slight decrease in energy coupling to the capsule and that all of these impact the symmetry of the x-ray drive such that they have an appreciable impact on the capsule implosion shape.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Retrieval of sizes and total masses of particles in volcanic clouds using AVHRR bands 4 and 5

The advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor on polar orbiting NOAA satellites can discriminate between volcanic clouds and meteorological clouds using two-band data in the thermal infrared. This paper is aimed at developing a retrieval of the particle sizes, optical depth, and total masses of particles from AVHRR two-band data of volcanic clouds. Radiative transfer calculations are used with a semi-transparent cloud model that is based on assumptions of spherical particle shape, a homogeneous underlying surface, and a simple thin cloud parallel to the surface. The model is applied to observed AVHRR data from a 13-hour old drifting cloud from the August 19, 1992, eruption of Crater Peak/Spurr Volcano, Alaska. The AVHRR data fit in the range of results calculated by the model, which supports its credibility. According to the model results, the average of effective particle radius in the test frame of this cloud is in the range of 2 to 2.5 micrometer, the optical depth at 12 micrometer is about 0.60 - 0.65. The total estimated mass of ash in the air amounts to 0.24 - 0.31 x 10(exp 6) tons, which is about 0.7-0.9% of the mass measured in the ashfall blanket. Sensitivity tests show that the mass estimate is more sensitive to the assumed ash size distribution than it is to the ash composition.

Wen, Shiming↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Experimental Study of the Effect of Wake Passing on Turbine Blade Film Cooling

The effect of wake passing on the showerhead film cooling performance of a turbine blade has been investigated experimentally. The experiments were performed in an annular turbine cascade with an upstream rotating row of cylindrical rods. Nickel thin-film gauges were used to determine local film effectiveness and Nusselt number values for various injectants, blowing ratios, and Strouhal numbers. Results indicated a reduction in film effectiveness with increasing Strouhal number, as well as the expected increase in film effectiveness with blowing ratio. An equation was developed to correlate the span-average film effectiveness data. The primary effect of wake unsteadiness was found to be correlated by a streamwise-constant decrement of 0.094.St. Steady computations were found to be in excellent agreement with experimental Nusselt numbers, but to overpredict experimental film effectiveness values. This is likely due to the inability to match actual hole exit velocity profiles and the absence of a credible turbulence model for film cooling.

Heidmann, James D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of the Results of MISSE 6 Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yields of Layered Kapton H Films with Monte Carlo Computational Predictions

A space experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 6B (MISSE 6B) was designed to compare the atomic oxygen erosion yield (Ey) of layers of Kapton H polyimide with no spacers between layers with that of layers of Kapton H with spacers between layers. The results were compared to a solid Kapton H (DuPont, Wilmington, DE) sample. Monte Carlo computational modeling was performed to optimize atomic oxygen interaction parameter values to match the results of both the MISSE 6B multilayer experiment and the undercut erosion profile from a crack defect in an aluminized Kapton H sample flown on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). The Monte Carlo modeling produced credible agreement with space results of increased Ey for all samples with spacers as well as predicting the space-observed enhancement in erosion near the edges of samples due to scattering from the beveled edges of the sample holders.

Oxygen atoms↗
NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

A structural uncertainty validation study for a large-scale, fire-engulfed, elevated object subjected to crosswind is presented to establish the credibility of a high-fidelity, low-Mach, turbulent reacting flow wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach that includes multiphysics coupling to participating media radiation and conjugate heat transfer. To establish that WMLES can accurately predict surface quantities including drag and pressure coefficient in the low-Mach crosswind regime, a foundational elevated isothermal cylinder validation case is presented at a similar gap-to-diameter ratio of 0.25, spanning the subcritical to supercritical drag regime (Re 𝐷 = 1.1 × 10 5 and 4.3 × 10 5 , respectively). Here, this study exercised both static and dynamic coefficient LES (Smagorinsky and 𝑘 sgs ) with both local and exchange-based velocity sampling. Results showcase that the drag crisis (or the sudden drop in drag coefficient at increased Re 𝐷 ) is well captured when using an exchange-based dynamic coefficient WMLES methodology, while noting lack of mesh convergence and overall drag and pressure coefficient predictively when using a static coefficient, local velocity sampling WMLES. For the 𝒪⁡(10) m JP-8 liquid pool fire crosswind validation study presented, two experimental crosswind configurations (2 m/s and 9.5 m/s) are showcased for a fire-engulfed mock fuselage roughly 4 m in diameter. Using the best model-form practices identified in the isothermal study, dynamic coefficient 𝑘 sgs exchange-based WMLES fire validation findings demonstrate accurate peak irradiation and skin temperature predictions as a function of crosswind magnitude. Excessive yaw in the low-crosswind fuselage configuration, consistent with experimental findings, captured a significant predicted asymmetry in flame attachment and heat flux toward the downwind cylindrical cap—indicative of axial vortex structures transporting the flame along the upper and lower fuselage leeward surface. All fire mesh resolution simulations captured the experimental finding that as crosswind increased, predicted flame shape and peak irradiation magnitude onto the fuselage transitioned from a windward to a leeward cylinder location due to the migration of the upper- to lower-shear fuel/air mixing layer thereby demonstrating the novelty, significance, and credibility of this high-fidelity WMLES reacting flow framework.

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning‐Based Earth System Models

Abstract Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics‐based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop Earth‐system models (ESMs) capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes over long timescales. Building trust in ESMs is a much more difficult problem than for weather forecast models, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future or paleoclimatic) coupled states of the system for which there are no direct observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML‐based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML‐based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML‐based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft. Report of the 1992 Models and Measurements Workshop. Volume 1: Workshop objectives and summary

This Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements (M&M) marks a significant expansion in the history of model intercomparisons. It provides a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and climate-chemistry interactions. The core of the M&M comparisons involves the selection of observations of the current stratosphere (i.e., within the last 15 years): these data are believed to be accurate and representative of certain aspects of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics that the models should be able to simulate.

Prather, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft. Report of the 1992 Models and Measurements Workshop. Volume 2: Comparisons with global atmospheric measurements

This Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements (M&M) marks a significant expansion in the history of model intercomparisons. It provides a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and climate-chemistry interactions. The core of the M&M comparisons involves the selection of observations of the current stratosphere (i.e., within the last 15 years): these data are believed to be accurate and representative of certain aspects of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics that the models should be able to simulate.

Prather, Michael J.↗