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DOE OSTI2025

Fundamental advantages of multijunction thermoradiative cells

Thermoradiative (TR) cells convert heat to work through emission of thermal radiation. Multijunction thermoradiative cells have received little research interest due to the apparent overlap with energy harvesting limits. Through detailed balance formalism, the present study models both single- and multi-diode TR devices, establishing their performance limits and identifying key factors that influence efficiency. For single-junction TR cells, we derive a relationship for the optimal bandgap and show that higher emitter temperatures increase efficiency. When the receiver is at absolute zero temperature, multijunction TR cells have little advantage over the single-junction cell in terms of the maximum output power density. However, for higher receiver temperatures, the multijunction configuration demonstrates significant improvements in both power and efficiency through the optimization of the chemical potential and bandgap of each diode in the complete ensemble. A 500 K emitter and 300 K receiver TR system can achieve a 21.25% increase in efficiency and a 10% improvement in the power density with multijunction architecture compared to a single junction through chemical potential optimization. These findings suggest that multijunction TR cells offer a promising approach to advancing low-grade heat recovery technologies for efficient heat-to-work conversion.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controlling Ion Uptake in Carboxylated Mixed Conductors

Organic mixed ionic‐electronic conductors (OMIECs) have garnered significant attention due to their capacity to transport both ions and electrons, making them ideal for applications in energy storage, neuromorphics, and bioelectronics. However, charge compensation mechanisms during the polymer redox process remain poorly understood, and are often oversimplified as single‐ion injection with little attention to counterion effects. To advance understanding and design strategies toward next‐generation OMIEC systems, a series of p‐channel carboxylated mixed conductors is investigated. Varying side‐chain functionality, distinctive swelling character is uncovered during electrochemical doping/dedoping with model chao‐/kosmotropic electrolytes. Carboxylic acid functionalized polymers demonstrate strong deswelling and mass reduction during doping, indicating cation expulsion, while ethoxycarbonyl counterparts exhibit prominent mass increase, pointing to an anion‐driven doping mechanism. By employing operando grazing incidence X‐ray fluorescence (GIXRF), it is revealed that the carboxyl functionalized polymer engages in robust cation interaction, whereas ester functionalization shifts the mechanism towards no cation involvement. It is demonstrated that cations are pivotal in mitigating swelling by counterbalancing anions, enabling efficient anion uptake without compromising performance. These findings underscore the transformative influence of functionality‐driven factors and side‐chain chemistry in governing ion dynamics and conduction, providing new frameworks for designing OMIECs with enhanced performance and reduced swelling.

carboxylated polythiophenes↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the use intention and influencing factors of telerehabilitation in people with rehabilitation needs: a cross-sectional survey

Objective This study aimed to investigate the use intention and influencing factors of telerehabilitation in people with rehabilitation needs. Methods This cross-sectional survey recruited a total of 183 participants with rehabilitation needs from May 2022 to December 2022. Sociodemographic and medical data were collected by a structured questionnaire. The factors influencing the use intention of telerehabilitation were measured by the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model. Multiple hierarchical regression analyses were performed. Results A total of 150 valid questionnaires were included for analysis. The results indicated that the use intention of telerehabilitation was overall high in people with rehabilitation needs. Health condition ( β = −0.21, p = 0.03), performance expectancy ( β = 0.21, p = 0.01), facilitating conditions ( β = 0.25, p = 0.03), perceived trust ( β = 0.25, p < 0.01), and self-efficacy ( β = 0.19, p = 0.04) were significant factors influencing the use intention of telerehabilitation. Conclusion Overall, the use intention of telerehabilitation is high in individuals with rehabilitation needs. Health conditions, performance expectancy, facilitating conditions, perceived trust, and self-efficacy are important factors influencing the use intention of telerehabilitation in individuals with rehabilitation needs.

Wang, Mao-Yuan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on Irrigation Return Flow Contributions to Stream Flow in Irrigated Alluvial Valleys

Irrigation can be a significant source of groundwater recharge in many agricultural regions, particularly in arid and semi-arid climates. Once infiltrated, irrigation recharge can travel via subsurface flowpaths that return to the river system in a lagged manner, supplementing natural streamflow weeks, months, or even years from when the irrigation was applied. In regions that experience low flows during summer and early fall, return flows can be a significant source of supplementary streamflow. Many water planning and operations models either ignore return flows or roughly approximate them with analytical solutions. Thus, return flows represent an important but often overlooked component of the hydrological exchange and overall water balance in agricultural regions. This study uses groundwater models to explore a wide range of factors that control irrigation return flow timing in irrigated alluvial valleys. A sensitivity analysis approach is used to assess how factors such as the extent of irrigated land adjacent to a stream, irrigation recharge rate, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, water table configuration, and seasonal fluctuations in stream stage control the timing of subsurface return flows. Modeling is conducted using MODFLOW models representing an irrigated alluvial valley adjacent to a stream. While a simplification of the full complexity in real systems, the models are a significant advancement from the analytical solution and provide new insight into the timescales of return flows over a broad range of possible conditions. To contextualize our modeling results, they are compared to an analytical solution commonly used for approximating return flows to evaluate its performance. Our findings show what factors and conditions influence return flow timing and control whether they contribute to streamflow over short term (months) or longer term (seasonal) time scales.

Ferencz, Stephen B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Refining seasonal performance metrics for room air-conditioning in emerging markets: Integrating building simulations with real-world equipment performance data

Buildings significantly impact worldwide energy consumption, emphasizing the need to reduce the cooling energy demand, especially in warm climates. Minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and seasonal performance metrics such as the Cooling Seasonal Performance Factor (CSPF) are crucial for improving room air conditioning (RAC) efficiency. However, challenges remain, particularly in emerging markets like Brazil, where seasonal performance metrics have recently been introduced. This study assesses the factors influencing country-level seasonal efficiency metrics and proposes a framework to refine these calculations by considering local climates and expected RAC usage in real-world households via building simulations. Key considerations include outdoor air temperature binning for different climates, RAC usage patterns (i.e., daytime and nighttime usages), envelope thermal performance of households, and urban heat island (UHI) effects. The results reveal that CSPF values can vary significantly based on climate conditions, with observed CSPF ranging from 4.10 to 11.59 Wh/Wh across 577 Brazilian climates. The inclusion of UHI effects led to a reduction in CSPF values by up to 29% during nighttime operations in hot urban areas. Additionally, building envelope efficiency showed contrasting impacts on RAC performance, with CSPFs reaching up to 15.35 Wh/Wh under specific optimized conditions. These findings highlight the need for transparent policymaking in RAC performance databases, facilitating the application of approaches like those proposed in this study and supporting diverse stakeholders in decision-making.

Bavaresco, Mateus↗

DOE OSTI2023

Willingness to Consider Pooled Rideshare?: An Exploratory Study on Influential Factors

Rideshare use has grown significantly, beginning with solo riders and evolving to pooled rideshare. Pooled rideshare involves sharing a ride with stranger(s). Despite the growth in rideshare services worldwide, the use of pooled rideshare in the U.S. is relatively low within all rideshare trips and compared to other forms of transportation, e.g., driving one's personal vehicle. A national survey of 5,385 individuals was conducted to identify factors influencing riders' willingness to consider pooled rideshare. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were performed. The survey results indicated five factors: service experience, time/cost, traffic/environment, privacy, and safety. Understanding these factors is crucial for the future of dynamic ridesharing services in the U.S.

Su, Haotian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Baseplate Temperature–Dependent Vertical Composition Gradient in Pseudo–Bilayer Films for Printing Non–Fullerene Organic Solar Cells

Numerous previous reports on the sequential deposition (SD) technique have demonstrated that this approach can achieve a p–i–n active layer architecture with an ideal vertical composition gradient, which is one of the critical factors that can influence the physical processes that determine the photovoltaic performance of organic solar cells. Herein, a commonly used photovoltaic system comprised of PM6 as a donor and Y6 as an acceptor is investigated with respect to sequential blade–processing deposition to comprehensively explore the morphology characteristics as a function of baseplate temperature. A systematic study of the temperature–dependent blend morphology elucidates the SD–processed configuration merits and device physics behind temperature–controlled degree of vertical composition gradient, and constructs the temperature–microstructure–property relationship for the corresponding photovoltaic parameters. The result shows, as the temperature increases, the morphology of the active layer has undergone a distinct evolution from the pseudo–bulk heterojunction to a pseudo–planar heterojunction and then to a pseudo–planar bilayer, leading to a non–monotonic correlation between baseplate temperature and device performance. Further, this investigation not only reveals the importance of precisely controlling baseplate temperature for gaining vertical morphology control, but also provides a path toward rational optimization of device performance in the lab–to–fab transition.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Convection. Part II: Sensitivity Tests for Its Charge Structure and Land–Ocean Contrast

In Part I, an electrification scheme was described and a simulation of an observed cold-based storm from the U.S. Great Plains was validated with electrical observations. Most charge in the storm was separated by rebounding collisions of secondary ice originating from prior graupel–snow collisions. In this Part II, sensitivity tests are performed with the control simulation (Part I) and influences from environmental factors (aerosols, temperature, moisture, and shear) on lightning are elucidated. Environmental factors [e.g., convective available potential energy (CAPE)] controlling updraft speed are salient. When ascent is reduced by 30% and 70%, flashes become 70% fewer and disappear, respectively; faster ascent promotes positive cloud-to-ground (+CGs) flashes. Since cloud base is too cold (1°C) for coalescence, cloud condensation nucleus aerosol concentrations do not influence the lightning appreciably. The electrical response to varying concentrations of active ice nuclei is limited by most ice particles being secondary and less sensitive—a natural “buffer.” Imposing a maritime sounding suggests that the land–sea contrast in lightning for such storms is due to the vertical structure of environmental temperature and humidity. Weak CAPE, and both entrainment and condensate weight from a low cloud base, suppress ascent and charging. Maritime thermodynamic conditions reduce simulated flash rates by two orders of magnitude. Reducing aerosol loadings from continental to maritime only slightly reinforces this suppression. Last, a conceptual model is provided for how any simulated storm is either normal because graupel/hail is mostly positively charged or else is inverted/anomalous because graupel/hail is mostly negatively charged, with environmental factors controlling the charging. Impacts from microphysical processes, including three processes of secondary ice production, on lightning are analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review of Wave Energy Converter Power Take-Off Systems, Testing Practices, and Evaluation Metrics: Preprint

While the field of wave energy has been the subject of numerical simulation, scale model testing, and precommercial project testing for decades, wave energy technologies remain in the early stages of development and must continuing proving themselves as a promising modern renewable energy field. One of the difficulties that wave energy systems have been struggling to overcome is the design of highly efficient energy conversion systems that can convert the mechanical power, derived from the oscillation of wave activated bodies, into another useful product. Often the power take-off (PTO) is defined as the single unit responsible for converting mechanical power into another usable form such as electricity, pressurized fluid, compressed air, and others. The PTO, and the entire power conversion chain (PCC), is of great importance as it affects not only how efficient wave power is converted into electricity, but also contributes to the mass, size, structural dynamics, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the wave energy converter (WEC). Unlike wind and solar, there is no industrial standard device, or devices, for wave energy conversion and this diversity is transferred to the PTO system. The majority of current WEC PTO systems incorporate a mechanical or hydraulic drive train, power generator, and an electrical control system. The challenge of WEC PTO designs is designing a mechanical-to-electrical component that can efficiently convert irregular, bi-directional, low frequency and low alternating velocity wave motions. While gross average power levels can be predicted in advance, the variable wave elevation input has to be converted into smooth electrical output and hence usually necessitates some type of energy storage system, such as battery storage, accumulator super capacitors, etc., or other means of compensation such as an array of devices. One of the primary challenges for wave energy converter systems is the fluctuating nature of wave resources, which require WEC components to be designed to handle loads (i.e. torques, forces, and powers) that are many times greater than the average load. This approach requires a much greater PTO capacity than the average power output and indicates a higher cost. In addition, supporting mechanical coupling and or gearing can be added to the PCC to help alleviate the difficulties with transmission and control of fluctuating large loads with low frequencies (indicative of wave forcing) into smaller loads at higher frequencies (optimum for conventional electrical machine design) can quickly increase the complexity of the PCC which could result in a greater number of failure modes and increased maintenance costs. All of the previous points demonstrate how the PTO influences WEC dynamics, reliability, performance and cost which are critical design factors. This paper further explores these topics by providing a review of the state-of-the-art PTO systems currently under development, how these novel PTO systems are tested and derisked prior to precommercial deployment, and the evaluation metrics historically used to differentiate between PTO designs and how they can be improved to support control co-design focused development of wave energy systems.

laboratory testing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Surface Ligands for Methylammonium Lead Iodide Films: Surface Coverage, Energetics, and Photovoltaic Performance

Surface ligand treatment provides a promising approach for passivating defect states, improving material and device stability, manipulating interfacial energetics, and improving the performance of perovskite solar cells (PSCs). To facilitate targeted selection and design of surface ligands for PSCs, it is necessary to establish relationships between ligand structure and perovskite surface properties. In this work, surface ligands with different binding groups are investigated to determine their extent of surface coverage, whether they form a surface monolayer or penetrate the perovskite, how they influence material energetics and photoluminescence, and how this combination of factors affects PSC performance. Ultraviolet and inverse photoelectron spectroscopy measurements show that surface ligands can significantly shift the ionization energy and electron affinity. Lastly, these changes in surface energetics substantially impact PSC performance, with the performance decreasing for ligands that create less favorable energy landscapes for electron transfer from MAPbI 3 to the electron transport layer, C 60 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genomic factors shape carbon and nitrogen metabolic niche breadth across Saccharomycotina yeasts

Organisms exhibit extensive variation in ecological niche breadth, from very narrow (specialists) to very broad (generalists). Two general paradigms have been proposed to explain this variation: (i) trade-offs between performance efficiency and breadth and (ii) the joint influence of extrinsic (environmental) and intrinsic (genomic) factors. We assembled genomic, metabolic, and ecological data from nearly all known species of the ancient fungal subphylum Saccharomycotina (1154 yeast strains from 1051 species), grown in 24 different environmental conditions, to examine niche breadth evolution. We found that large differences in the breadth of carbon utilization traits between yeasts stem from intrinsic differences in genes encoding specific metabolic pathways, but we found limited evidence for trade-offs. Furthermore, these comprehensive data argue that intrinsic factors shape niche breadth variation in microbes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Amorphous electrocatalysts for oxygen and hydrogen evolution reactions: Advances in hydrogen production

The electrochemical splitting of water into oxygen and hydrogen is fundamental for renewable energy storage and conversion. The development of cost-effective and highly efficient electrocatalysts remains essential for industrial-scale implementation of this technology. Recent advances have highlighted the superior activity, stability and structural adaptability of amorphous electrocatalysts compared to their crystalline counterparts. This review critically examines synthesis strategies, characterisation techniques, and the electrochemical performance of amorphous materials for both oxygen evolution (OER) and hydrogen evolution (HER) reactions. Key factors influencing catalytic efficiency, including electronic structure and surface chemistry, are discussed in detail and contextualised with established literature. The review also highlights the critical role of enthalpic contributions in governing reaction energetics and catalyst performance, which aids in understanding and optimising electrocatalytic efficiency. Notably, ongoing research continues to reveal that amorphous catalysts consistently deliver improved performance in water-splitting applications, highlighting their growing relevance in electrocatalysis. The rationale for employing amorphous catalysts in water splitting is articulated, emphasising their unique advantages. By integrating recent findings and outlining future research directions, this review underscores the pivotal role of amorphous materials in advancing sustainable hydrogen production and identifies promising avenues for catalyst innovation.

Amorphous catalysts↗

DOE OSTI2020

Polysulfide reduction and Li 2 S phase formation in the presence of lithium metal and solid electrolyte interphase layer

Lithium sulfur battery is an attractive next generation technology that can meet many demands of modern society. Unfortunately, the lithium sulfur battery faces unique issues related to the polysulfide shuttle effect, that is due to reduction products dissolving in the electrolyte and their subsequent reduction on the lithium metal electrode. This adds further problems to the already challenging needs of understanding and engineering a solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer with desired properties. One of the most important SEI properties is its passivation of lithium metal which is critically important to the overall battery performance. Passivation is difficult to measure experimentally without the influence of many factors. This study reports an investigation of the reduction of the intermediate Li 2 S 8 over lithium already passivated with Li 2 O, Li 2 CO 3 , LiOH, LiF and Li 2 S along with exploration of Li 2 S 8 reduction over pristine lithium nanoclusters using first principles computational models. Significant formation of Li 2 S phase nucleation is found to stabilize the reduction products of the Li 2 S 8 . Here, the formation of Li 2 S is explored in-depth with lithium nanocluster-based models determining a 2 V potential increase for the reduction of polysulfides due to the formation of Li 2 S. This investigation demonstrates passivation effects of important SEI components including Li 2 S.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing ionic complexity: A modeling approach for hierarchical ionic circuit design

Since the 1950s, soft ionic devices have evolved from individual components to an expanding library of sensors, actuators, signal transmitters, and processors. However, integrating these components into complex, multifunctional systems remains challenging due to the nonintuitive and nonlinear interactions between ionic elements. In this work, we address these fundamental challenges by developing a lumped element model that enables interrogation of the physics that governs ionic circuits, as well as rapid design and optimization. Our model captures features specific to ionic charge carriers, while preserving the hierarchical design flexibility and computational efficiency of traditional circuit modeling. We demonstrate that our model can not only fit individual device behavior but also accurately predict the behavior of larger circuits formed by combining those devices. Additionally, we show how our tool utilizes the intrinsic nonlinearities of ionic systems to enable extended functionality, revealing how factors such as ion enrichment, ion leakage, and polymer charge density influence performance. Lastly, we present a fully ionic power supply, sensor, control system, and actuator for a soft robot that adapts its motion in response to environmental salt, illustrating the tool’s potential to accelerate advancements in chemical sensing, biointerfacing, biomimetic systems, and adaptive materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-Dependent Magnetic Properties of Magnetorheological Elastomers

We report on an investigation of the temperature-dependent magnetic properties of magnetorheological elastomers (MREs). These are a class of composites that consist of magnetically permeable particles dispersed in a nonmagnetic polymeric matrix. Under the application of an external magnetic field, a large deformation occurs altering the mechanical properties of these materials. Due to their magnetoelastic coupling response, these materials are finding an increasing interest among the scientific community. These polymer-based composites’ performance depends on many factors, which temperature is one of the biggest influencing factors requiring further investigation. In this work, the magnetic properties of isotropic and anisotropic polyurethane-based MRE with different iron (Fe) particle loading fractions (50, 60, 70, and 80% by weight) were investigated under different temperatures. From the analysis, the magnetization curves of these materials are observed to overlap for the different measured temperature values. The variation of various magnetic properties including saturation magnetization and differential susceptibility with temperature was also determined. Furthermore, the results show ~ 2.5% decrement in the saturation magnetization for each of the loading fractions, between the lowest (300K) and the highest (400K) measured temperature. On the other hand, the initial differential susceptibility exhibits different trends with increasing temperature. Generally, the magnetization response of these materials is seen to be only slightly sensitive to temperature changes. Additionally, the magnetization response is observed to be highly dependent on particle loading fractions and particle orientation within the elastomer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Infrared-Fused Vision-Based Thermoregulation Performance Estimation for Personal Thermal Comfort-Driven HVAC System Controls

Thermal comfort is one of the primary factors influencing occupant health, well-being, and productivity in buildings. Existing thermal comfort systems require occupants to frequently communicate their comfort vote via a survey which is impractical as a long-term solution. Here, we present a novel thermal infrared-fused computer vision sensing method to capture thermoregulation performance in a non-intrusive and non-invasive manner. In this method, we align thermal and visible images, detect facial segments (i.e., nose, eyes, face boundary), and accordingly read the temperatures from the appropriate coordinates in the thermal image. We focus on the human face since it is often clearly visible to cameras and is not merged into a hot background (unlike hands). We use a regularized Gaussian Mixture model to track the thermoregulation changes over time and apply a heuristic algorithm to extract hot and cold indices. We present a personalized and a generalized comfort modeling method, selected based on the availability of the occupant historical indices measurements in a neutral environment, and use the time-series of the hot and cold indices to define corrections to HVAC system operations in the form of setpoint constraints. To evaluate the efficacy of our proposed approach in responding to thermal stimuli, we designed a series of controlled experiments to simulate exposure to cold and hot environments. While applying personalized modeling showed an acceptable average accuracy of 91.3%, the generalized model’s average accuracy was only 65.2%. This shows the importance of having access to physiological records in modeling and assessing comfort. We also found that individual differences should be considered in selecting the cooling and heating rates when some knowledge of the occupant’s overall thermal preference is available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical assessment of triply periodic minimal surfaces for direct air capture of carbon dioxide

Direct air capture (DAC) systems often consist of packing material wetted by a capture fluid that reacts with CO 2 in the airstream. The efficiency of the contactor is determined by a complex relationship of fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, contactor geometry, and chemical properties. The efficiency of the contactor must be balanced with other factors, primarily pressure drop through the system. Triply periodic minimal surfaces (TPMS) are a class of differential surfaces that have been explored in multiple engineering applications and have been shown to exhibit excellent performance when used in heat exchangers. Their tortuous path provides a high surface-to-volume ratio and favorable trade-off between contact area and pressure drop. In this work, a gyroid-type TPMS contactor was evaluated using computational fluid dynamics for a variety of geometric parameters to explore the potential benefit of TPMS shapes for DAC applications. A thin-film model was employed to model the flow and distribution of the capture solvent, allowing efficient simulations of TPMS structures at scale by eliminating the need for a computationally intensive interface capturing method. A liquid-gas mass transfer model was implemented in the commercial software STAR-CCM+ and used to predict the CO 2 capture efficiency and study the trade-off between capture performance and pressure drop through analysis of capture rates, mass transfer coefficients, and other relevant variables. TPMS contactors with a variety of geometric parameters and two capture solvent options were investigated to determine the effect of design choices on the operational performance of DAC systems. In conclusion, results showed that while contactor geometry is the dominant factor in efficiency and pressure drop, the physiochemical properties of the solvent are an important secondary influence on the contactor performance.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗