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Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Fencing affects movement patterns of two large carnivores in Southern Africa

The erection of peripheral fences around protected areas has been shown to adversely affect the movement behavior, genetic connectivity and long-term viability of animal populations. However, fencing is also used extensively to reduce human encroachment, limit poaching activities, and mitigate human–wildlife conflicts. Limited information on the movement behavior of carnivores is available along the periphery of protected areas, particularly in semi-arid environments. To quantify the potential effects of the 824 km perimeter fence surrounding the Etosha National Park (Etosha, Namibia) on the movement and space use of carnivores, we collected GPS movement data from 36 lions (Panthera leo) and seven spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) over a 14-year period. For these two apex carnivores, we measured the impact of the Etosha fence on their movements (step lengths and path straightness), calculated the likelihood of fence crossings, and evaluated the spatial–temporal characteristics of these crossings. Our results indicated that lions and hyenas moved faster (longer step lengths) when closer to the fence. Lions showed no variation in path straightness with respect to the fence but hyenas had straighter movement paths when closer to the fence. When moving within the vicinity of the fence, lions had a 9% likelihood of crossing the fence, while hyenas were much more likely (18%) to do so, which suggests that the Etosha fence was more permeable for hyenas than for lions. Fence crossings predominantly occurred at night for both species. Lions were more likely to cross the fence during the cold dry season (May–August) whereas hyenas crossed more often during the warm wet season (December–April). Female and adult lions had a higher probability of crossing the fence than males and subadults. These findings could be useful in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate human–carnivore conflicts and thus promote the conservation of carnivores in multiple-use areas along the periphery of the park. Further research is needed to better elucidate the impact of perimeter fences on a broader suite of carnivores and other large mammals, including species-specific variation in the response to fences, as well as the economic benefits of fencing provided to local communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reactive Transport Modeling of Hydrogen Production from Serpentinization of Olivine

Hydrogen production from serpentinization of ultramafic rocks represents a promising natural pathway for generating carbon-free energy, yet its kinetics and controlling factors remain incompletely understood. A key challenge in advancing serpentinization research lies in the heterogeneity of porosity and permeability in rocks, which leads to nonuniform fluid velocity fields, as well as uncertainties in estimating reactive surface area and identifying appropriate mineral reaction equilibria. Additional complexities arise from the role of dissolved SiO 2 , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ partitioning, and the limited effect of pH variations within the strongly alkaline regime on hydrogen yields. These challenges hinder straightforward extrapolation from laboratory tests to practical applications of hydrogen production from natural rocks. Here, in this work, we address these questions using a simulation-based reactive transport modeling framework calibrated against controlled laboratory experiments reported elsewhere. The model couples geochemical kinetics, multiphase flow, and mineralogical feedbacks, enabling systematic evaluation of how surface area, dissolved silica concentration, Fe redox state, temperature, and pressure govern serpentinization and H2 generation. We find that surface area exerts the strongest control on reaction rates and hydrogen yields, while Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ ratios act as secondary modulators. Elevated dissolved silica concentrations suppress hydrogen production but accelerate serpentine precipitation, whereas increasing pH beyond 12 within the strongly alkaline regime produces only marginal gains. Finally, we demonstrate that integrating targeted experiments with calibrated simulations offers a powerful and efficient approach for predicting hydrogen yields and assessing parameter trade-offs in industrial-scale applications. This integration can substantially reduce the experimental burden while improving predictive capability, thereby enhancing both the mechanistic understanding and the practical feasibility of hydrogen production from serpentinization.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Numerical investigations to identify environmental factors for field-scale reactive transport of pathogens at riverbank filtration sites

While induced bank filtration is a proven method for facilitating sustainable drinking water production, it is at risk from surface water contaminations (e.g., pathogens). Induced bank filtration and pathogen transport in groundwater have been studied extensively. However, long-term studies that consider real-world conditions are missing. These conditions include seasonal changes to environmental conditions and waterworks operations. Therefore, to analyze the effect of seasonal changes on the transport of human pathogenic viruses and their indicators in induced bank filtration, concentrations of adenoviruses and pathogen indicators were monitored over 16 months at an active bank filtration plant at the Rhine River, in Düsseldorf (Germany). Based on this data, a 2D groundwater model was created in PFLOTRAN that simulated flow, heat transport, conservative transport of chloride and the resulting electrical conductivity, reactive transport of oxygen and nitrate, and colloid-based transport of coliforms, somatic coliphages, and adenoviruses. The results show that reduced travel time was the key factor determining periods with a low removal of coliforms and somatic coliphages in the aquifer. Travel time was controlled by river level variations during rainy seasons, and the waterworks extraction rates during dry seasons. Further, for adenovirus transport, travel distance in the subsurface appeared to be the key factor, while travel time had no significant impact. Coliform removal increased when the colmation layer permeability decreased, while coliphage and adenovirus removal was unaffected by the colmation layer permeability. Seasonal changes in temperature and oxygen content did not significantly impact the removal of coliphages and adenoviruses in groundwater. Denitrifying conditions correlated with a lowered coliform removal, but the modelling could not establish a connection between denitrifying conditions and coliform removal. Our study showed that removal of pathogens and pathogen indicators at induced bank filtration plants varies greatly in time and space (e.g., for coliforms from 1 to 4 log-levels at 20m travel distance), and that adenovirus transport differs considerably from transport of coliforms and somatic coliphages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Geothermal Hydraulic Stimulation: Overview of Methods and Best Practices

This paper outlines important information related to the hydraulic stimulation of geothermal wells and considerations for regulators responsible for evaluating applications to conduct these operations. Hydraulic stimulation applied to geothermal wells is an evolving technology that is different from the hydraulic fracturing process widely used to complete unconventional oil and gas wells. Important differences relate to operating pressures, variations in rock and fracture processes, and characteristics and disposal of hydraulic fracture fluids. Hydraulic stimulation is not widely used in the geothermal industry; however, future development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) will require hydraulic stimulation in order to enhance and create fracture permeability to allow wells to deliver sufficient heat and fluid to power plants. Gigawatts of EGS potential have been identified (U.S. Department of Energy 2019), so it is expected that the use of hydraulic stimulation of geothermal wells will be more common in the future. At present, there are no formal regulations guiding drilling programs or sundry notices that propose hydraulic stimulation of geothermal wells. On federal lands, important constraints and oversight are embedded in the process for obtaining Geothermal Drilling Permits outlined in the Code of Federal Regulations (43 CFR Section 3262.11); in Geothermal Resource Order 2 (GRO 2) guidance for assessment and mitigation of impacts of geothermal operations as well as construction and testing of geothermal wells; and in a Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Induced Seismicity Instruction Memorandum (BLM 2018). Additionally, local knowledge from BLM field offices and expertise of BLM engineers, or that of state regulators for operations on private and state lands, will be applied to fully assess operator applications to conduct geothermal hydraulic stimulation activities. Significant research effort has been directed toward EGS, so geothermal hydraulic stimulation techniques, impacts, and results are evolving and becoming better understood, including adaptation of decades of oil and gas industry experience with hydraulic fracturing of unconventional reservoirs. Recent EGS activities in the United States provide details about hydraulic stimulation with respect to oversight, stimulation design, execution, and results. Based on experience to date, the important issues to address when hydraulically stimulating a geothermal well include the following: 1. Wellbore construction and integrity must be appropriate to protect groundwater and manage stimulation pressures. 2. Understanding of lithology, faults, fractures, and subsurface stress state is necessary to design stimulation plans and predict results. 3. Seismic monitoring allows for observation and mitigation of induced seismicity.

geothermal↗

Electrical Resistivity Tomography Monitoring of In Situ Soil Flushing at the Hanford 100-K East Area: 100KE Soil Flushing Monitoring

Former operations in the 100-KE Area at the Hanford Site resulted in vadose zone hexavalent chromium that provides a source of groundwater contamination. Previous efforts to remediate vadose zone chromium involved excavation and offsite treatment of contaminated soils. Although much of the chromium was removed, contamination still exists in native soil between the water table and the bottom of the pit, which has since been backfilled. In-situ soil flushing was tested at the 100-KE Area to accelerate the removal of the remaining hexavalent chromium in the vadose zone. Soil flushing works by applying clean flush water at the surface, which mobilizes and transports chromium as it migrates downward to the water table. Once the chromium reaches the water table, it is hydraulically contained, extracted, and treated through pump and treat operations. The efficacy of soil flushing is directly related to the volume of clean water that infiltrates through contaminated soils. Therefore, performance monitoring requires and understanding of flush water migration through the vadose zone. It is challenging to comprehensively assess soil flushing performance via borehole access due to the limited volume of investigation afforded by a given wellbore. As an alternative, 3D time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was tested as a method of monitoring the distribution of flush water over time within the vadose zone. ERT is a method of imaging the bulk electrical conductivity of the subsurface, which is highly dependent on water saturation levels in unconsolidated and unsaturated sediments. Thus, the timing and location of changes in bulk conductivity caused by soil flushing can be used to infer flush water migration pathways. In this report we present results of 3D time-lapse ERT imaging during two separate soil flushing campaigns conducted during the spring and summer months of 2022 and 2023. Results show generally that: 1) Pit backfill materials appear to nominally have larger permeability than native soils. Consequently, the boundary between pit backfill and native soil had a significant impact on flush water migration, causing some flush water to migrate along the pit boundary to the bottom of the pit. 2) Non-uniform flows, likely caused by variations in hydrogeologic properties, developed in the pit backfill materials, resulting in uneven flush water distribution on the southern margin of the soil flushing zone. 3) Redistribution of water at the interface between backfill materials and Hanford formation materials likely facilitated elevated and uniform distribution of flush water within native soils beneath the deeper parts of the pit boundary beneath the center of the flush zone, which presumably overlie soils with elevated chromium contamination. These areas appear to have been infiltrated by higher volumes of flush water than the northern and southern margins of the flush zone. 4) In comparison to 2022, high flush water application rates significantly improved flush water distribution throughout the target flushing zone. 5) Imaging resolution was limited to a depth of approximate 20 meters below the land surface, due primarily to limitations on the lateral extent of the surface ERT array. The ~10 m region of the vadose zone between approximately 130 meters elevation and the water table at approximately 120 meters elevation was unresolved.

100 Area↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Measuring and Analyzing Strain Caused by Changes in Barometric Pressure in the Vadose Zone

Changes in barometric pressure propagate into the subsurface where they can affect water level measurements in wells and cause vertical strain. Previous strain sensors were developed to measure vertical strain, but they were limited to measurements at a single depth, making it difficult to evaluate strains from a migrating pressure wave. Technology known as Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interferometry (CMPI) uses optical fiber sensors to measure strain at multiple locations. It has the potential to detect strain caused by variations in barometric pressure at multiple depths in the subsurface. The goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of using this technology to record the changes in vertical strain in the vadose zone from small fluctuations in air pressure. Propagation of these air pressure fluctuations is affected by hydrogeological properties such as water content and permeability. A second goal of this study is to evaluate how these properties affect the air pressure distribution, strain, and gas-phase diffusivity with a long-term goal of using strain to monitor the vadose zone. The focus of this study is on a suite of laboratory experiments that used a sand-filled column with an open head space. The CMPI fiber was packaged and embedded along the axis of the column to measure the strain at multiple locations while air pressure transducers were installed through the wall of the column. Small periodic fluctuations in air pressure, similar to barometric pressure fluctuations, were created in the head space of the column using an audio driven speaker driven at 4 Hz using a sinusoidal signal created by a function generator. Then, the fluctuations propagated along the column where they were measured by the transducers and recorded as functions of time. Initial tests were conducted using dry sand, but then additional tests were conducted after injecting water into the column, which changed the hydrologic and mechanical properties. Another experiment was conducted after creating a thin barrier to air flow, which was designed to simulate a thin layer of saturated ground during rainfall. A final experiment was conducted by changing the grain size of the material to create a heterogeneity in the upper half of the column. The suite of six experiments was conducted to highlight effects of variations in water content and heterogeneities on air pressure and vertical strain. Numerical simulations were also created to evaluate the laboratory data and to provide a baseline analysis for the results. The numerical simulations used the governing equations to linear poroelasticity and two-phase flow with boundary conditions representing the experiments. The conceptual model for strain caused by barometric pressure recognizes that a fluctuating barometric pressure causes fluctuations in the air pore pressure that decrease in amplitude and lag in time with increase depth. The pressure distribution results in two different loads that cause strain: 1.) a mechanical load as the barometric pressure acts on the ground surface; and 2.) pressure loading in the pore space. The results show that the total vertical strain is a contribution of both of these loads, and this is the strain that was observed in the laboratory. The lab experiments show that both air pressure and strain vary as sinusoids that propagate with depth. The amplitude of the air pressure and strain decrease as a function of depth in all the conditions that were evaluate. For example, in the dry sand, the amplitude of the air pressure decreases from 25 Pa at the head space to 5 Pa at a depth of 70 cm, whereas the amplitude of the strain decreases from 0.15 to 0.06 µε over the same depth interval. In many cases the amplitudes decrease is approximately negative exponential functions of depth. When water was injected into the sand and the saturation increased, the amplitude of the air pressure increased in the partially saturated sand but decreased sharply to zero where the soil was saturated. The strain decreased with depth, but the transition from partially to fully saturated conditions had little effect on the strain profile, even though it had a major effect on the air pressure. This apparently is because strain is caused by variations in both water and air pressure. The fluctuating air pressure caused the water pressure to fluctuate, which caused strain throughout the column. Phase delay of the air pressure and the strain both increase as linear to bi-linear functions of depth. The phase delays indicate that pressure propagates at a velocity of 7 to 8 m/s in dry or partially saturated sand, but it drops by more than an order of magnitude in the vicinity of the capillary fringe. The phase delays indicate the strain propagates faster than the pressure. The data indicate that the strain propagates from 1.2 to more than 4x faster than the pressure. Switching from sand to silt in the column caused the velocity of the pressure to drop by roughly half for both pressures, but curiously, it had little effect on the velocity of the strain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F1 Final Report

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F is a comparison of models and methods for post-closure performance assessment (PA) of a deep geologic repository for radioactive waste. The general aims of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for PA and to stimulate additional research and development in PA methodologies. The task objectives are to motivate development of PA modelling skills and capabilities, to examine the influence of model choices on calculated repository performance, and to compare the uncertainties introduced by model choices to other sources of uncertainty. Task F involves no actual experiment or site. It is a PA modelling exercise that requires the conceptual development of hypothetical repository designs and geologic settings. Because three of the teams were interested in salt and the rest of the teams were interested in crystalline rock, Task F was split into two branches: Task F1 for crystalline rock and Task F2 for salt. This report is for Task F1, crystalline rock. Teams from seven countries (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and United States) participated in Task F1. The teams worked together to define the features, events, and processes of the reference case repository and established a set of performance measures. In addition, they defined a set of benchmark problems designed to test and compare modelling capabilities for fracture flow and transport at different scales. The repository design and benchmark problems are documented in a Task Specification that evolved over time as the group honed the specifications. The benchmark problems verified that each team can aptly model flow and transport in fractured media in 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensions. Two general approaches were used for the 3-dimensional benchmarks: discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM). DFN modelling involves explicit meshing of each fracture while ECPM modelling aims to capture the effective porosity and directional permeability of each cell in a space-filling mesh as affected by intersecting fractures. In some models, a combination of the two is used, i.e., DFN for large known fractures and ECPM for the rest of the domain. Transport is solved by using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Although some variation is observed among model breakthrough curves in the benchmark problems, there is strong agreement in breakthrough behaviour up to at least the 75 th percentile for all benchmarks. At the 90 th percentile, breakthrough results show larger differences, suggesting several models retain substantially higher fractions of tracer in regions of slower moving water. In addition to the flow and transport benchmarks, several teams completed the source term benchmark, verifying capabilities for modelling radionuclide decay and ingrowth, waste package breach, instant release fractions, fuel matrix degradation rates, and radionuclide solubility limitations. The reference case is conceptualized as a generic spent fuel repository at a depth of 450 m in fractured crystalline rock. The repository has 50 parallel backfilled drifts, each with 50 deposition holes 6 m apart. Each deposition hole contains a 4-PWR waste package and bentonite buffer. The rock domain is 5 km in length, 2 km in width, and 1 km in depth. It has 6 deterministic fractured deformation zones and a multitude of stochastic fractures. Teams generally used the ECPM approach for the entire rock or a hybrid approach in which the deterministic fracture zones are modelled with a DFN and the rest of the rock is modelled by ECPM. Of the reference case problems specified, only the results of the initial reference case problem are compared in this report. The initial problem focuses on transport from the deposition holes to the surface, i.e., it neglects waste package performance. Tracers are released at all waste package locations at time zero and tracked for their releases to the near field and ground surface. The water fluxes calculated at the ground surface entry and exit regions of the domain are similar for all models except for two that have considerably lower fluxes. For tracer transport, large differences are observed among models in the magnitude of tracer transported. Much of the difference appears to be due to how the repository is implemented and hence the different degrees of repository simplification. Models that exclude the drifts, buffer, and backfill from the domain tend to show greater release of tracers and radionuclides from the repository. The initial study presented here indicates that major differences in modelling important processes within the repository (e.g., diffusion through buffer and backfill) can produce broadly different release and transport results, especially when those processes are excluded. Even for the models that included all specified features, events, and processes, the results show significant differences and demonstrate the importance of examining multiple modelling approaches in performance assessment. The differences in results observed in this study are expected to motivate teams to either increase complexity in future versions of the reference case models or to improve methods to account for the effects of simplified features and processes. Either way, future improvements in these models are expected to produce results that more closely agree.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

3D fault architecture controls the dynamism of earthquake swarms

The vibrant evolutionary patterns made by earthquake swarms are incompatible with standard, effectively two-dimensional (2D) models for general fault architecture. Here we leverage advances in earthquake monitoring with a deep-learning algorithm to image a fault zone hosting a 4-year-long swarm in southern California. We infer that fluids are naturally injected into the fault zone from below and diffuse through strike-parallel channels while triggering earthquakes. A permeability barrier initially limits up-dip swarm migration but ultimately is circumvented. This enables fluid migration within a shallower section of the fault with fundamentally different mechanical properties. Our observations provide high-resolution constraints on the processes by which swarms initiate, grow, and arrest. These findings illustrate how swarm evolution is strongly controlled by 3D variations in fault architecture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Microwave Photonics Optical Fiber Method for Measuring Distributed Strain for Hydrologic Applications in the Vadose and Saturated Zones

Distributed strain measurements appear to hold significant potential for monitoring hydrologic processes. Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interferometry (CMPI) is a distributed sensing technique that measures strain in an optical fiber by reading optical interference phase changes in the microwave domain. The technique provides 10nε resolution when cm spatial resolution is applied. CMPI was used to measure the strain caused by small periodic variations in air pressure (25 Pa amplitude and 4 Hz) in a sand-filled laboratory column used to represent barometric loading in the vadose zone. The strain varied as a periodic function with an amplitude that decreased and a phase that increased with depth. The distribution of amplitude and phase of the strain depended on the water saturation, permeability, and presence of a barrier at the top of the sand. A theoretical analysis suggests that the air pressure diffusivity estimated from pressure data is similar to the diffusivity estimated from the distributed strain. These results indicated that the CMPI distributed strain measurement system could be used to improve monitoring and characterization of the vadose and underlying saturated zone.

Hua, Liwei↗

Heterogeneous multiphase flow properties of volcanic rocks and implications for noble gas transport from underground nuclear explosions

Of interest to the Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment are patterns and timing of explosion-generated noble gases that reach the land surface. The impact of potentially simultaneous flow of water and gas on noble gas transport in heterogeneous fractured rock is a current scientific knowledge gap. This article presents field and laboratory data to constrain and justify a triple continua conceptual model with multimodal multiphase fluid flow constitutive equations that represents host rock matrix, natural fractures, and induced fractures from past underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at Aqueduct and Pahute Mesas, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA. Capillary pressure from mercury intrusion and direct air–water measurements on volcanic tuff core samples exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity (i.e., variation over multiple orders of magnitude). Petrographic observations indicate that heterogeneity derives from multimodal pore structures in ash-flow tuff components and post-depositional alteration processes. Comparisons of pre- and post-UNE samples reveal different pore size distributions that are due in part to microfractures. Capillary pressure relationships require a multimodal van Genuchten (VG) constitutive model to best fit the data. Relative permeability estimations based on unimodal VG fits to capillary pressure can be different from those based on bimodal VG fits, implying the choice of unimodal vs. bimodal fits may greatly affect flow and transport predictions of noble gas signatures. The range in measured capillary pressure and predicted relative permeability curves for a given lithology and between lithologies highlights the need for future modeling to consider spatially distributed properties.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

CO 2 induced changes in Mount Simon sandstone: Understanding links to post CO 2 injection monitoring, seismicity, and reservoir integrity

The purpose of this study is to quantify geochemical reactions of CO 2 and brine with subsurface samples taken from the Mt. Simon sandstone and identify any potential alterations of the geomechanical rock properties that could lead to changes observable in seismic monitoring or result in changes of micro seismicity such as those observed at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) site. Two Mt. Simon sandstone samples from 6919.3 feet (2109.0 m) and 6926.1 feet (2111.1 m) depth were exposed to supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) dissolved in brine at in-situ reservoir conditions for one month. Geochemical, spectral, scanning electron microscopy, and petrophysical methods were used to analyze the samples before and after the one-month exposure. Significant changes were observed. Multiple geomechanical properties were chosen to form the framework against which to interrogate the petrophysical data: Young’s modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio (ν), lambda·rho (λρ), and mu·rho (μρ). In this study we conclude that framework composition, porosity, heterogeneities, effective pressure, and reactive geochemistry are first order controls on trends in the E-μ and λρ-μρ cross plot spaces. Changes in porosity, permeability, dynamic moduli, and brittleness with exposure to these fluids were observed. No change in ultrasonic P-wave attenuation (Q P ) was observed. Geochemical alteration causes a distinct shift in λρ-μρ in both samples as well as changes in E, ν, and P and S wave seismic velocity values. Furthermore, these observations could provide insight into subsurface monitoring using seismic methods including amplitude variation with offset (AVO) classification.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

In-Situ Stress Measurements at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) Site

A scientific injection campaign was conducted at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) site in 2017 and 2019. The testing included pump-in/shut-in, pump-in/flowback, and step rate tests. Various methods have been employed to interpret the in-situ stress from the test dataset. This study focuses on methods to interpret the minimum in-situ stress from step rate, pump-in/extended shut-in tests data obtained during the stimulation of two zones in Well 58-32. This well was drilled in low-permeability granitoid. A temperature of 199 °C was recorded at the well’s total depth of 2297 m relative to the rotary Kelly bushing (RKB). The lower zone (Zone 1) consisted of 46 m of the openhole at the toe of the well. Fractures in the upper zone (Zone 2) were stimulated between 2123–2126 m measured depths (MD) behind the casing. The closure stress gradient variation depended on the depth and the injection chronology. The closure stress was found to increase with the pumping rate/volume. This stress variation could indicate that poroelastic effects (“back stress”) and the presence of adjacent natural fractures may play an important role in the interpretation of fracture closure stress. Further, progressively increasing local total stresses may, consequently, have practical applications when moderate volumes of fluid are injected in a naturally fractured or high-temperature reservoir. The alternative techniques that use pump-in/flowback tests and temperature signatures provide a valuable perspective view of the in-situ stress measurements.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Diagnostic assessment of reservoir response to fracturing: a case study from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) in Midland Basin

Abstract This paper outlines a data collection and diagnostics case study involving multiple horizontal shale wells. We look at well production profiles using rate transient analysis, differences in near wellbore complexity, geologic variations within the area of interest, as well as compositional differences in the rocks based on cores obtained from within the stimulated reservoir. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site is a multi-well experiment involving stimulation of unconventional shale wells in the southeastern Midland portion of the Permian Basin. The targeted formations include both the upper as well as the middle Wolfcamp formations, also referred alternatively as Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B. Data integration and analysis shared in this paper help us understand the various geologic controls impacting well productivity, particularly the wide variance observed between the Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B formations. Rate transient analysis indicates similar system permeabilities for stimulated wells. However, we observe higher effective fracture half-lengths for upper Wolfcamp wells. Using observations from 3D seismic interpretations (such as pad scale faults) as well as petrophysical and image log data, we highlight the substantial differences in stimulation as we move along the well laterals from the heel toward the toe sections. These differences are further reconciled with observations from zones with high data density at the core locations through stimulated rock, as well as independent data such as microseismic emissions. At the test site, Wolfcamp A was found to be relatively quartz rich with significant heterogeneity whereas Wolfcamp B is richer in clay and organic content. This impacts the geomechanical characteristics of the rock mass with much higher natural fracture density in the shallower interval. Thus, the fracture growth is more uniform in the deeper interval and more heterogeneous with branching likely in upper interval. Increased complexity also leads to consistently better productivity from the wells in the shallower interval as demonstrated from RTA results. This case study is unique because it provides valuable insights from actual sampling of the stimulated zones in hydraulically fractured wells and helps understand impact of various factors that contribute toward variability in well production. The findings from this study provides insights into need for optimization of completion designs in the various Wolfcamp landing zones, such as optimization of cluster or fracture spacing in various Wolfcamp intervals. In addition, it provides a useful template for data collection and research direction in future field test sites of similar nature in unconventional reservoirs.

Energy & Fuels↗

Radionuclide transport in fractured chalk under abrupt changes in salinity

Internationally, it has been agreed that geologic repositories for spent fuel and radioactive waste are considered the internationally agreed upon solution for intermediate and long-term disposal. In countries where traditional nuclear waste repository host rocks (e.g., clay, salt, granite) are not available, other low permeability lithologies must be studied. Here, chalk is considered to determine its viability for disposal. Despite chalk's low bulk permeability, it may contain fracture networks that can facilitate radionuclide transport. In arid areas, groundwater salinity may change seasonally due to the mixing between brackish groundwater and fresh meteoric water. Such salinity changes may impact the radionuclides' mobility. In this study, radioactive U(VI) and radionuclide simulant tracers (Sr, Ce and Re) were injected into a naturally fractured chalk core. The mobility of tracers was investigated under abrupt salinity variations. Two solutions were used: a low ionic strength (IS) artificial rainwater (ARW; IS ~0.002) and a high IS artificial groundwater (AGW; IS ~0.2). During the experiments, the tracers were added to ARW, then the carrier was changed to AGW, and vice versa. Ce was mobile only in colloidal form, while Re was transported as a conservative tracer. Both Re and Ce demonstrated no change in mobility due to salinity changes. In contrast, U and Sr showed increased mobility when AGW was introduced and decreased mobility when ARW was introduced into the core. These experimental results, supported by reactive transport modeling, suggest that saline groundwater solutions promote U and Sr release via ion-exchange and enhance their migration in fractured chalk. Here the study emphasizes the impact of salinity variations near spent fuel repositories and their possible impact on radionuclide mobility.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 1. Characterizing Thermal–Hydrological–Mechanical Processes

Abstract Bentonite clay is widely used in engineered barrier systems for the permanent disposal of high‐level radioactive waste due to its low permeability, high swelling capacity, and thermal stability. However, the complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes induced by heating from decaying radioactive waste and hydration from surrounding rock can lead to heterogeneous changes that are difficult to measure and predict. This study develops an Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework for monitoring THM processes, progressing from sample‐scale to bench‐scale tests, to inform field‐scale applications. Sample‐scale tests analyzed small bentonite samples under controlled variations in water content, temperature, and porosity to establish fundamental resistivity relationships. Bench‐scale tests involved larger bentonite columns subjected to heating (up to 200°C) and hydration under controlled pressure, simulating repository conditions. ERT measurements, complemented by X‐ray CT imaging, temperature monitoring, and tracing sensors, revealed coupled THM processes, such as hydration‐induced compression, swelling, and thermal gradients, leading to complex resistivity patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of ERT for capturing THM‐induced resistivity changes, though challenges remain in upscaling and quantitative analysis. This study evaluates laboratory test capabilities and proposes future improvements for understanding THM‐induced resistivity responses. A conceptual framework for ERT implementation in field‐scale monitoring is presented, synthesizing findings from both scales and exploring how ERT data can inform long‐term modeling and reduce prediction uncertainties. Overall, this ERT‐based framework offers a robust method for monitoring bentonite buffers, aiding in early issue detection and supporting the safe long‐term disposal of radioactive waste in geological repositories, while highlighting the need for future development. Plain Language Summary Bentonite clay is crucial in engineered barrier systems (EBS) for containing high‐level radioactive waste due to its ability to absorb water, swell, seal and remain stable under high temperatures. When bentonite absorbs water and heats up from radioactive decay, it experiences complex changes in its physical and mechanical properties. Understanding these changes is important for ensuring the long‐term safety and effectiveness of EBS. This study used Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), a non‐invasive method that measures electrical conductivity to monitor these changes during laboratory experiments. The ERT data revealed significant variations in resistivity corresponding to changes in water content, temperature, and density, providing detailed spatial and temporal insights into the behavior of bentonite. These findings enhance our ability to predict the long‐term performance of bentonite barriers, ensuring the safe containment of radioactive waste. By improving our understanding of bentonite's behavior, this research supports the development of more reliable and effective barrier systems for radioactive waste disposal, protecting the environment and public health. Key Points ERT monitoring was employed to capture resistivity changes in bentonite during controlled heating and hydration experiments, providing insights into THM processes ERT data reveal significant resistivity changes correlated with water content, temperature, and mechanical effects, enhancing the understanding of THM dynamics in bentonite This study explores the potential of the framework for application in field‐scale EBS monitoring, emphasizing the need for integrating additional geophysical methods for comprehensive subsurface imaging

Chen, Hang↗

Hidden Features: How Subsurface and Landscape Heterogeneity Govern Hydrologic Connectivity and Stream Chemistry in a Montane Watershed

ABSTRACT Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the connection among stores of water within a watershed and controls the flux of water and solutes from the subsurface to the stream. Hydrologic connectivity is difficult to quantify because it is goverened by heterogeniety in subsurface storage and permeability and responds to seasonal changes in precipitation inputs and subsurface moisture conditions. How interannual climate variability impacts hydrologic connectivity, and thus stream flow generation and chemistry, remains unclear. Using a rare, four‐year synoptic stream chemistry dataset, we evaluated shifts in stream chemistry and stream flow source of Coal Creek, a montane, headwater tributary of the Upper Colorado River. We leveraged compositional principal component analysis and end‐member mixing to evaluate how seasonal and interannual variation in subsurface moisture conditions impacts stream chemistry. Overall, three main findings emerged from this work. First, three geochemically distinct end members were identified that constrained stream flow chemistry: reach inflows, and quick and slow flow groundwater contributions. Reach inflows were impacted by historic base and precious metal mine inputs. Bedrock fractures facilitated much of the transport of quick flow groundwater and higher‐storage subsurface features (e.g., alluvial fans) facilitated the transport of slow flow groundwater. Second, the contributions of different end members to the stream changed over the summer. In early summer, stream flow was composed of all three end members, while in late summer, it was composed predominantly of reach inflows and slow flow groundwater. Finally, we observed minimal differences in proportional composition in stream chemistry across all four years, indicating seasonal variability in subsurface moisture and spatial heterogeneity in landscape and geologic features had a greater influence than interannual climate fluctuation on hydrologic connectivity and stream water chemistry. These findings indicate that mechanisms controlling solute transport (e.g., hydrologic connectivity and flow path activation) may be resilient (i.e., able to rebound after perturbations) to predicted increases in climate variability. By establishing a framework for assessing compositional stream chemistry across variable hydrologic and subsurface moisture conditions, our study offers a method to evaluate watershed biogeochemical resilience to variations in hydrometeorological conditions.

Johnson, Keira [College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmos↗