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DOE OSTI2025

Agriculture’s Potential Regional Economic Contributions to the United States Economy When Supplying Feedstock to the Bio-Economy

The economic impact of obtaining biomass could become significant to U.S. rural economies via the establishment of a bioeconomy. In 2023, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory provided a road map to obtain over a billion tons of biomass for conversion to bioenergy and other products. Using information from this roadmap, this study estimates the potential positive and negative economic impacts that occur because of land use change, along with increased technological advances. This is achieved by using the input–output model, IMPLAN, and impacting 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis regions in the conterminous United States. Biomass included in the analysis comprises dedicated energy crops, crop residues, and forest residues. The analysis found that managing pastures more intensively could result in releasing land to produce dedicated energy crops on 30.8 million hectares, resulting in the production of 361 million metric tons of biomass. This, coupled with crop residues from barley, corn, oats, sorghum, and wheat (162 million metric tons), plus forest residues (41 million metric tons), provide 564 million dry metric tons of biomass. Assuming the price for biomass in 2023 dollars was USD 77 per dry metric-ton, this additional production results in an economic benefit for the nation of USD 619 billion, an increase from the Business As Is scenario (Baseline) of almost USD 100 billion per year, assuming a mature biomass industry. An additional 700,000 jobs are required to grow, harvest/collect, and transport the biomass material from the land.

ForSEAM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Brownian bridge-based speed imputation technique for truck energy consumption and emissions estimation

The available truck Global Positioning System (GPS) data, typically collected with large time gaps, rely on imputation techniques to obtain second-by-second data that are required in models for estimating truck energy consumption and emissions. However, existing speed imputation techniques either require a large amount of high-resolution data for model training or rely on special movement assumptions. Here, to fill the gap and effectively apply the low-resolution truck GPS datasets, this paper proposes a simple imputation technique that adopts the Brownian bridge structure to impute missing speed data. The proposed technique introduces a feasible imputation region and a combined drift into the imputation procedure to capture vehicle acceleration constraint, travel distance constraint, and speed volatility. The calibrated model is applied to a set of low-resolution truck GPS data. The results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed technique in enhancing estimation accuracy when using low-resolution GPS data to estimate fuel consumption and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic solvent chamber propagation estimation framework using RNN for warm solvent injection in heterogeneous reservoirs

Warm solvent injection (WSI), injecting low-temperature solvent into formations to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, is a clean technology for heavy oil production through reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water usage. The success of WSI operation depends on the uniform development and propagation of solvent chambers in reservoirs. However, reservoir heterogeneity stemming from shale barriers plays a detrimental role in the conformance of solvent chamber development and oil production rate. In this work, we developed a novel recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework with the capability of efficiently tracking and estimating the solvent chamber positions in heterogeneous reservoirs based on only production time-series data. The developed estimation model utilizes the “sequence-to-sequence" mapping methodology to correlate observed production time-series sequence and solvent chamber edge sequence via a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The trained RNN models exhibit high accuracy, evidenced by the predicted dynamic solvent chamber locations match the corresponding true locations from numerical simulation, with a high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and a low mean squared error. Specifically, the achieved R 2 values exceed 0.98 on both the training and testing data. The developed RNN-based workflow was tested via several cases from both regularly- and irregularly-shaped shale barriers, and the results were promising. The predicted solvent chambers showed strong agreement with those obtained from numerical simulations. The major benefits of this workflow include reducing computational time and saving overall monitoring and tracking costs for conventional techniques. In conclusion, the present work would provide a good demonstration of the capability of practical integration of machine learning methods in solving engineering problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

GET-Solar (Generation forecasting and parameter Estimation Tool for Solar) [SWR-20-115]

GET-Solar (Generation forecasting and parameter Estimation Tool for Solar) can be used to estimate behind the meter (BTM) solar generation from limited datasets. Using distributed sets of diverse solar sites, but with close spatial proximity, and/or limited historical PV generation information can be used to generate of solar profiles. This is useful for applications where partial solar generation data is available, and on-site irradiance data is not available. GET-Solar calculates PV technical data parameters and calculates output by modeling shading and cloud cover impacts. Clear sky irradiance profiles are used to calculate base generation profiles on which the local shading and cloud cover layers are added. In order to arrive at clear sky generation data, PV mounting information like panel tilt and and angle is needed. For cases where PV mounting information is missing, panel tilt and azimuth angle can be estimated using a non-linear optimization algorithm. GET-Solar can also be used for forecasting applications where historical PV data is available to estimate local shading at various solar positions. This overall framework can be used for estimation of solar parameters, and assisting in analyzing and modeling diverse sets of DER where solar generation is also present in utility meter data. GET-Solar has been developed in Python and uses the Pyomo optimization language.

Abraham, Sherin Ann↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parametric estimation of Poisson's ratio for thin hinged-hinged plates

Cornu's method is an elegant calculation besieged by an impractical approach to obtain accurate estimates for Poisson's ratio. Conventionally, Cornu's method requires several components, and each component can adversely affect the accuracy of the measurement. Furthermore, Cornu's conventional method requires a long beam because beams with short length-to-width ratios cause the estimate of Poisson's ratio to diverge from the true value of Poisson's ratio. We believe that, with the right modifications, Cornu's method can become an attractive approach to obtaining precise estimates for Poisson's ratio from mode shapes. Here we use finite element simulations to show how to use Cornu's method to estimate Poisson's ratio from a mode shape. Our modified Cornu's method removes knife-edges and loading components for a hinged-hinged plate under steady-state excitation. Given the true value of Poisson's ratio, as a performance specification, we show that simple parametric expressions can fit estimates for Poisson's ratio for different length-to-width ratios of thin hinged-hinged plates. Additionally, we show that estimates for Poisson's ratio from higher modes align with the results from the first mode and explain our expectation for this outcome. Furthermore, our results challenge the idea that anticlastic, monoclastic, and synclastic deformation uniquely correspond to positive, zero, and negative estimates of Poisson's ratio, respectively. With the emergence of materials-by-design, we expect that this parametric technique will be able to assist in experimental qualification of thin beam and plate structures with respect to the desired value of Poisson's ratio.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scintillation and cherenkov photon counting detectors with analog silicon photomultipliers for TOF-PET

Objective. Standard signal processing approaches for scintillation detectors in positron emission tomography (PET) derive accurate estimates for 511 keV photon time of interaction and energy imparted to the detection media from aggregate characteristics of electronic pulse shapes. The ultimate realization of a scintillation detector for PET is one that provides a unique timestamp and position for each detected scintillation photon. Detectors with these capabilities enable advanced concepts for three-dimensional (3D) position and time of interaction estimation with methods that exploit the spatiotemporal arrival time kinetics of individual scintillation photons. Approach. In this work, we show that taking into consideration the temporal photon emission density of a scintillator, the channel density of an analog silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) array, and employing fast electronic readout with digital signal processing, a detector that counts and timestamps scintillation photons can be realized. To demonstrate this approach, a prototype detector was constructed, comprising multichannel electronic readout for a bismuth germanate (BGO) scintillator coupled to an SiPM array. Main Results. In proof-of-concept measurements with this detector, we were able to count and provide unique timestamps for 66% of all optical photons, where the remaining 34% (two-or-more-photon pulses) are also independently counted, but each photon bunch shares a common timestamp. We show this detector concept can implement 3D positioning of 511 keV photon interactions and thereby enable corrections for time of interaction estimators. The detector achieved 17.6% energy resolution at 511 keV and 237 ± 10 ps full-width-at-half-maximum coincidence time resolution (CTR) (fast spectral component) versus a reference detector. We outline the methodology, readout, and approach for achieving this detector capability in first-ever, proof-of-concept measurements for scintillation photon counting detector with analog silicon photomultipliers. Significance. The presented detector concept is a promising design for large area, high sensitivity TOF-PET detector modules that can implement advanced event positioning and time of interaction estimators, which could push state-of-the-art performance.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive sampling for accelerating neutron diffraction-based strain mapping *

Abstract Neutron diffraction is a useful technique for mapping residual strains in dense metal objects. The technique works by placing an object in the path of a neutron beam, measuring the diffracted signals and inferring the local lattice strain values from the measurement. In order to map the strains across the entire object, the object is stepped one position at a time in the path of the neutron beam, typically in raster order, and at each position a strain value is estimated. Typical dwell times at neutron diffraction instruments result in an overall measurement that can take several hours to map an object that is several tens of centimeters in each dimension at a resolution of a few millimeters, during which the end users do not have an estimate of the global strain features and are at risk of incomplete information in case of instruments outages. In this paper, we propose an object adaptive sampling strategy to measure the significant points first. We start with a small initial uniform set of measurement points across the object to be mapped, compute the strain in those positions and use a machine learning technique to predict the next position to measure in the object. Specifically, we use a Bayesian optimization based on a Gaussian process regression method to infer the underlying strain field from a sparse set of measurements and predict the next most informative positions to measure based on estimates of the mean and variance in the strain fields estimated from the previously measured points. We demonstrate our real-time measure-infer-predict workflow on additively manufactured steel parts—demonstrating that we can get an accurate strain estimate even with 30%–40% of the typical number of measurements—leading the path to faster strain mapping with useful real-time feedback. We emphasize that the proposed method is general and can be used for fast mapping of other material properties such as phase fractions from time-consuming point-wise neutron measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Via Machinae 2.0 : Full-sky, model-agnostic search for stellar streams in Gaia DR2

ABSTRACT We present an update to Via Machinae, an automated stellar stream-finding algorithm based on the deep learning anomaly detector ANODE. Via Machinae identifies stellar streams within Gaia, using only angular positions, proper motions, and photometry, without reference to a model of the Milky Way potential for orbit integration or stellar distances. This new version, Via Machinae 2.0, includes many improvements and refinements to nearly every step of the algorithm, that altogether result in more robust and visually distinct stream candidates than our original formulation. In this work, we also provide a quantitative estimate of the false positive rate of Via Machinae 2.0 by applying it to a simulated Gaia-mock catalogue based on galaxia, a smooth model of the Milky Way that does not contain substructure or stellar streams. Finally, we perform the first full-sky search for stellar streams with Via Machinae 2.0, identifying 102 streams at high significance within the Gaia Data Release 2, of which only 10 have been previously identified. While follow-up observations for further confirmation are required, taking into account the false positive rate presented in this work, we expect approximately 90 of these stream candidates to correspond to real stellar structures.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of decelerating streamers in inhomogeneous atmosphere with implications for runaway electron generation

The dynamics of positive and negative streamers is numerically simulated in atmospheric pressure air in the range of parameters corresponding to the streamer deceleration and termination in the middle of the discharge gap. A detailed comparison with experiments in air at constant and variable density demonstrates good agreement between the 2D simulation results and the observations. It is shown that positive and negative streamers behave in radically different ways when decelerating and stopping. When the head potential drops, the negative streamer transits to the mode in which the propagation is due to the forward electron drift. In this case, the radius of the ionization wave front increases, whereas the electric field at the streamer head decreases further and the streamer stops. Its head diameter continues to increase due to the slow drift of free electrons in the residual under-breakdown field. On the contrary, the only advancement mechanism for a positive streamer with a decreasing head potential is a decrease in the effective radius of the ionization wave, leading to a local increase in the electric field. This mechanism makes it possible to compensate for the reduction in the efficiency of gas photoionization at small head diameters. A qualitative 1D model is suggested to describe streamer deceleration and stopping for different discharge polarities. Estimates show that, during positive streamer stopping, the local electric field at the streamer head can exceed the threshold corresponding to the transition of electrons to the runaway mode when the head potential (relative to the surrounding space) decreases to~1.2 kV in atmospheric pressure air. In this case, pulsed generation of a beam of runaway electrons directed into the channel of a stopping positive streamer can occur. The energy of the formed pulsed electron beam depends on the intensity of photoionization in front of the streamer head. This energy can vary from 700 V (when increasing the photoionization rate by a factor of 10 with respect to the value in atmospheric pressure air) to 2.6 kV (when decreasing the photoionization rate by a factor of 1000). It is possible that this behavior of decelerating positive streamers can explain the observed bursts of x-ray radiation during the streamer propagation in long air gaps.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leaf demography spectra, February 2017, PA-SLZ: Panama

This dataset contains leaf reflectance spectra of sunlit canopy leaves from trees at the San Lorenzo Protected Area (PA-SLZ), Panama. Spectra were measured with a full-spectrum (350 -2500 nm) spectroradiometer with a leaf clip attachment. Leaves previously documented in a demography survey were targeted, and each leaf spectrum is paired with species identification, relative leaf position on each branch and estimated leaf age in days. Leaves were measured from the following species: Apeiba membranacea, Carapa guianensis, Guatteria dumetorum, Miconia borealis, Tachigali versicolor, Terminalia amazonia, Tocoyena pittieri and Vochysia ferruginea Unprocessed spectral data are included as SVC *.sig files, and metadata, including sample details, are presented in *.xlsx files. Leaf reflectance spectra of sunlit canopy leaves from trees at the San Lorenzo Protected Area (PA-SLZ), Panama. Spectra were measured with a full-spectrum (350 -2500 nm) spectroradiometer with a leaf clip attachment. Leaves previously documented in a demography survey were targeted, and each leaf spectrum is paired with species identification, relative leaf position on each branch and estimated leaf age in days. Leaves were measured from the following species: Apeiba membranacea, Carapa guianensis, Guatteria dumetorum, Miconia borealis, Tachigali versicolor, Terminalia amazonia, Tocoyena pittieri and Vochysia ferruginea Unprocessed spectral data are included as SVC *.sig files, and metadata, including sample details, are presented in *.xlsx files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pulsar-Calibrated Timing Source for Synchronized Sampling

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is critical to the real-time synchronized sampling of phasor measurement units (PMUs). Unfortunately, GPS signals are occasionally unstable due to several factors such as weak satellite signal and GPS spoofing, thereby leaving the PMU with a degraded sampling performance. In this letter, a novel Pulsar-calibrated Timing Source (PTS) is proposed as the alternative timing source for synchronized sampling. Further, the PTS can generate the timing signal with a 1 μs drift error within 91 holdover minutes to ensure continuity of sampling accuracy. Experimental tests are conducted and the results reveal the reliability and accuracy of the PTS for PMU synchronization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Grandparent Inference from Genetic Data: The Potential for Parentage-Based Tagging Programs to Identify Offspring of Hatchery Strays

Abstract Fisheries managers routinely use hatcheries to increase angling opportunity. Many hatcheries operate as segregated programs where hatchery-origin fish are not intended to spawn with natural-origin conspecifics in order to prevent potential negative effects on the natural-origin population. Currently available techniques to monitor the frequency with which hatchery-origin strays successfully spawn in the wild rely on either genetic differentiation between the hatchery- and natural-origin fish or extensive sampling of fish on the spawning grounds. We present a method to infer grandparent–grandchild trios by using only genotypes from two putative grandparents and one putative grandchild. We developed estimators of false-positive and false-negative error rates and showed that genetic panels containing 500–700 single-nucleotide polymorphisms or 200–300 microhaplotypes are expected to allow application of this technique for monitoring segregated hatchery programs. We discuss the ease with which this technique can be implemented by pre-existing parentage-based tagging programs and provide an R package that applies the method.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian inferencing framework for ultrasound wave speed measurements in metal additive manufacturing

Process-related changes during metal additive manufacturing introduce microstructural variability in the material properties of printed parts, directly affecting component reliability. Accurate estimation of these property variations with part performance are essential for quality assurance. Ultrasound testing offers a non-destructive means to estimate mechanical properties and detect defects; however, conventional analysis methods often neglect the influence of microstructural variability, limiting their effectiveness. Here, this research presents a Bayesian inference technique for quantifying wave speed uncertainty from ultrasound measurements of metal additive manufactured parts. By integrating prior ultrasound data with a Bayesian model, the proposed approach generates posterior density estimates of wave speed that systematically account for manufacturing-induced variability and uncertainty. The novelty of this research lies in applying a Bayesian framework to analyze experimental ultrasound measurements within the context of metal additive manufacturing variability. The method enhances the accuracy of wave speed estimation by 64%, defect position by 50% and increases confidence associated with wave speed variance by 30% across different porosity levels, thereby providing a robust foundation for improved decision-making and increased reliability in additively manufactured components.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2023

A TOPAS model for lens-based proton radiography

Abstract Objective. Proton Radiography can be used in conjunction with proton therapy for patient positioning, real-time estimates of stopping power, and adaptive therapy in regions with motion. The modeling capability shown here can be used to evaluate lens-based radiography as an instantaneous proton-based radiographic technique. The utilization of user-friendly Monte Carlo program TOPAS enables collaborators and other users to easily conduct medical- and therapy- based simulations of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). The resulting transport model is an open-source Monte Carlo package for simulations of proton and heavy ion therapy treatments and concurrent particle imaging. Approach. The four-quadrupole, magnetic lens system of the 800-MeV proton beamline at LANSCE is modeled in TOPAS. Several imaging and contrast objects were modelled to assess transmission at energies from 230–930 MeV and different levels of particle collimation. At different proton energies, the strength of the magnetic field was scaled according to βγ, the inverse product of particle relativistic velocity and particle momentum. Main results. Materials with high atomic number, Z, (gold, gallium, bone-equivalent) generated more contrast than materials with low-Z (water, lung-equivalent, adipose-equivalent). A 5-mrad collimator was beneficial for tissue-to-contrast agent contrast, while a 10-mrad collimator was best to distinguish between different high-Z materials. Assessment with a step-wedge phantom showed water-equivalent path length did not scale directly according to predicted values but could be mapped more accurately with calibration. Poor image quality was observed at low energies (230 MeV), but improved as proton energy increased, with sub-mm resolution at 630 MeV. Significance. Proton radiography becomes viable for shallow bone structures at 330 MeV, and for deeper structures at 630 MeV. Visibility improves with use of high-Z contrast agents. This modality may be particularly viable at carbon therapy centers with accelerators capable of delivering high energy protons and could be performed with carbon therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved Localization Precision and Angular Resolution of a Cylindrical, Time-Encoded Imaging System From Adaptive Detector Movements

To the first order, the localization precision and angular resolution of a cylindrical, time-encoded imaging (c-TEI) system is governed by the geometry of the system. Improving either measure requires increasing the mask radius or decreasing the detector diameter, both of which are undesirable. Here, we propose an alternative option of repositioning the detector within the mask to increase the detector-to-mask distance in the direction of a source, thereby improving the localization precision and angular resolution in that direction. Since the detector-to-mask distance only increases for a small portion of the field of view (FOV), we propose implementing adaptive imaging where one leverages data collected during the measurement to optimize the system configuration. This article utilizes both simulations and experiments to set upper bounds on the potential gain from adaptive detector movements for one and two sources in the FOV. When only one source is present, adaptive detector movements can improve the localization precision and angular resolution by 20% for a source at 90 cm and by 32% for a far-field source. When two sources are present, adaptive detector movements can improve localization precision and angular resolution by up to 50% for sources that are ~10° apart (90 cm from the system). We experimentally verify these results through maximum likelihood estimation of the source position(s) and image reconstruction of point sources that are close together. As a demonstration of an adaptive imaging algorithm, we image a complex arrangement of special nuclear material at the Zero Power Physics Reactor facility at Idaho National Laboratory.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determining critical points to control electric lighting to meet circadian lighting requirements and minimize energy use

Designing electric lighting systems to meet circadian lighting requirements may raise light levels and consequently energy use compared to existing practices. To reduce energy use, electric lighting can be controlled to be dimmed or turned off when sufficient daylight levels are available in space. This requires input from one or a few critical measurement points. However, it is unclear how critical points can be determined to ensure that all occupants receive the needed light levels while reducing electric lighting energy. This paper discusses three approaches for selecting critical points and utilizes annual daylight simulations modified to account for sky spectra, and coupled with spectral electric lighting simulations. Among the three evaluated approaches, the use of continuous daylight autonomy (modified to use EML measured at eye positions) is helpful for estimating electric lighting energy for dimmable electric lighting systems, and for identifying energy-saving strategies.

Abboushi, Belal K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Statistics of Extended Debris Disks Measured with Gaia and Planck

Thermal emission from debris disks around stars has been measured using targeted and resolved observations. We present an alternative likelihood-based approach in which temperature maps from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey at 857 and 545 GHz are analyzed in conjunction with stellar positions from Gaia to estimate the fraction of stars hosting disks and the thermal emission from the disks. The debris disks are not resolved (or even necessarily detected individually), but their statistical properties and the correlations with stellar properties are measured for several thousand stars. We compare our findings with higher sensitivity surveys of smaller samples of stars. For dimmer stars, in particular K and M dwarfs, we find that about 10% of stars within 80 pc have emission consistent with debris disks. We also report on 80 candidate disks, the majority of which are not previously identified. We have previously constrained the properties of Exo-Oort clouds using Planck data—with future CMB surveys, both components can be measured for different stellar types, providing a new avenue to study the outer parts of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost of Fish Exclusion and Passage Technologies for Hydropower

Hydropower represents a reliable source of renewable energy and accounts for approximately 7% of the total electrical generation in the United States. Future expansion of hydropower is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development projects or powering existing non-powered dams. For these new projects to be successful, careful analysis of risks, costs, and uncertainty to offset reduced power production as well as ensuring the protection and safe passage of migratory fish to gain public support, will be required. Exclusion and passage are two common approaches to protect fish from entrainment and impingement at hydropower facilities. The thresholds for entrainment risk and requirements for exclusion and passage often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders. While the costs associated with environmental mitigations represent a large proportion of the total costs required for the licensing of hydropower facilities, little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion and passage. Working with FOA awardee Natel Energy, scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were tasked with assessing the capital construction costs for downstream fish exclusion and passage infrastructure. This report used keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction of additional cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening and passage from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 PM&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens, 142 pertaining to passage studies, and 26 pertaining to passage-related studies. PM&E measures associated with positive barrier screens represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with new stream development (NSD) projects. Results from these data indicate highly variable costs associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1 to 2 in.). Furthermore, estimated capital costs of passage infrastructure were positively related to the scale of the project based on installed capacity for some, but not all, types of passage. These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion and passage costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects. More data may still be available within the FERC eLibrary, but significant effort will be required to manually identify and extract the data for future analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗