Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “propulsion simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

DC-Link Capacitor Design for a Neutral-Point-Less Three-Level Dual-Phase Inverter for Traction Application

Conventional multilevel inverters, such as neutral￾point-clamped and T-type inverters, have gained popularity in electric vehicle applications due to their advantages, including high voltage range, high power capability, low switching losses, low total harmonic distortion, and low electromagnetic interference. However, these traditional multilevel inverters require a neutral point connection to generate a zero-voltage vector. The neutral point current oscillates at three times the fundamental frequency, leading to voltage imbalance and overvoltage stress on the power modules. Additionally, the use of two stacked DC-link capacitors increases the volume required for the same overall capacitance and complicates packaging due to ripple current and heat dissipation from separate components. This is a significant concern for traction drive units, where space is limited. In this paper, a neutral-point-less multilevel dual three￾phase inverter topology is investigated for traction inverter applications. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed topology effectively retains the benefits of multilevel operation while utilizing a single DC-link capacitor. The inverter model was simulated in conjunction with an industry-standard battery model to evaluate the potential for capacitor size reduction compared to a conventional three-level inverter.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

A Predictive Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-Based Connected Automated Vehicle Anticipatory Longitudinal Control in a Mixed Traffic Lane Change Condition

Maintaining safety and efficiency for mixed traffic consisting of connected automated vehicles (CAVs) and human-driven vehicles (HDVs) is an arduous task due to the inherent HDVs’ stochasticity. Especially for longitudinal control, which is the basic function of vehicle automation, prevailing research primarily considers CAV’s car-following control merely the acceleration and deceleration of leading vehicles. However, this approach overlooks the potential disruptions caused by surrounding vehicles executing lane changes, which can significantly impact the control vehicle’s stability and overall safety. Hence, our study introduces a predictive deep reinforcement learning (DRL) longitudinal CAV controller. This innovative approach leverages prediction from a physics-informed neural network as well as the control capability of DRL to better anticipate and mitigate issues arising from lane-changing, enhancing the safety and efficiency of CAVs in such scenarios. Finally, validated by the numerical simulations embedded with the real-world data, the results indicate that the proposed controller significantly enhances the safety and efficiency of CAVs in situations involving lane changes by other vehicles, showcasing its potential as a valuable tool in advancing CAV technology in mixed traffic.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Understanding the interplay between pilot fuel mixing and auto-ignition chemistry in hydrogen-enriched environment

The diesel-piloted dual-fuel compression ignition combustion strategy is well-suited to accelerate the decarbonization of transportation by adopting hydrogen as a renewable energy carrier into the existing internal combustion engine with minimal engine modifications. Despite the simplicity of engine modification, many questions remain unanswered regarding the optimal pilot injection strategy for reliable ignition with minimum pilot fuel consumption. The present study uses a single-cylinder heavy-duty optical engine to explore the phenomenology and underlying mechanisms governing the pilot fuel ignition and the subsequent combustion of a premixed hydrogen-air charge. The engine is operated in a dual-fuel mode with hydrogen premixed into the engine intake charge with a direct pilot injection of n-heptane as a diesel pilot fuel surrogate. Optical diagnostics used to visualize in-cylinder combustion phenomena include high-speed IR imaging of the pilot fuel spray evolution as well as high-speed HCHO* and OH* chemiluminescence as indicators of low-temperature and high-temperature heat release, respectively. Three pilot injection strategies are compared to explore the effects of pilot fuel mass, injection pressure, and injection duration on the probability and repeatability of successful ignition. The thermodynamic and imaging data analysis supported by zero-dimensional chemical kinetics simulations revealed a complex interplay between the physical and chemical processes governing the pilot fuel ignition process in a hydrogen containing charge. Hydrogen strongly inhibits the ignition of pilot fuel mixtures and therefore requires longer injection duration to create zones with sufficiently high pilot fuel concentration for successful ignition. Results show that ignition typically tends to rely on stochastic pockets with high pilot fuel concentration, which results in poor repeatability of combustion and frequent misfiring. In conclusion, this work has improved the understanding on how the unique chemical properties of hydrogen pose a challenge for maximization of hydrogen’s energy share in hydrogen dual-fuel engines and highlights a potential mitigation pathway.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Optimization and Evaluation of Energy Savings for Connected and Autonomous Off-Road Vehicles

Off-road vehicles, such as wheel loaders, excavators, and harvesters, are extensively utilized across a wide range of industries, including construction, agriculture, and mining. These machines have become indispensable in supporting the day-to-day operational needs of a nation, playing a critical role in various sectors' infrastructure and productivity. However, despite their utility, off-road vehicles are significant consumers of fossil fuels, resulting in substantial emissions that contribute to environmental degradation. This highlights the pressing need for research and technological advancements aimed at improving their energy efficiency and reducing their carbon footprint. There are, however, two primary challenges that must be addressed to achieve these goals. First, off-road vehicles typically perform both driving and working tasks simultaneously, which introduces a high level of complexity into their overall dynamic systems. Analysis the interactions between these functions is challenging. Second, research into off-road vehicles is inherently interdisciplinary, demanding expertise across several domains such as fluid power systems, vehicle dynamics, control theory, optimization techniques, and real-world implementation. Recognizing these challenges, we proposed the project titled "Optimization and Evaluation of Energy Savings for Connected and Autonomous Off-Road Vehicles" as a comprehensive solution to enhance fuel efficiency while simultaneously improving productivity. This project specifically focuses on autonomous off-road vehicles, with particular attention to wheel loaders, and seeks to develop novel methods to optimize energy consumption without sacrificing operational performance. The project integrates real-time control algorithms, vehicle dynamics modeling, and co-optimization of powertrain system and vehicle system to achieve these goals. Our optimization strategy dynamically co-optimizes critical parameters at both the powertrain and vehicle levels, including vehicle speed, working tool movements, powertrain dynamics, and engine operations in real-time. To streamline this optimization process, we developed a vehicle model that captures the key dynamics while significantly enhancing computational efficiency. This allows the system to intelligently minimize fuel consumption, all while maintaining or even improving productivity through real-time calculations during various off-road operations. To validate the effectiveness of this energy optimization method, we introduced a state-of-the-art Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) testbed. This reconfigurable testbed seamlessly integrates the actual engine with virtual models of the wheel loader's subsystems, allowing for accurate emulation of real-world operational loads and environments. By simulating these conditions, the HIL testbed enables us to evaluate the wheel loader’s performance under diverse working scenarios, ensuring the developed solution is applicable in real-world operations. This testbed proved to be instrumental in validating the optimization algorithms and demonstrating the system's practical effectiveness. During the evaluation and testing phase, we employed the HIL testbed to rigorously assess the energy savings and productivity improvements generated by the optimized system. The results were highly encouraging, revealing that the automated wheel loader achieved over 30% fuel savings compared to traditional, human-operated cycles, with comparable or even enhanced levels of productivity. The insights gained from this HIL-based testing provided critical validation of our approach and highlighted the potential for deploying these optimized autonomous technologies in real-world off-road vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Electrifying education: Exploring the electrification potential of U.S. School bus fleets

We analyze the operations of 270 diesel school buses across the United States to assess their electrification potential and evaluate the impact of various charging strategies on electricity demand. We find that school buses typically follow a two-route schedule on weekdays, featuring extended dwell times between morning and evening trips. Weekday trip distances average 25 miles, while weekend trips average 42 miles. Charging simulations indicate over 90% of the U.S. school bus fleet could be electrified using current technologies (300-mile range at 1.21 kWh/mile with 19.2-kW depot charging) without modifying existing operating patterns. Depot charging is a key enabler of school bus electrification, however, the strategic placement of charging stations at other locations (e.g., schools) can further increase electrification potential. Additionally, we find electric school bus charging to be highly flexible, with charge management capable of reducing peak charging loads at depots by up to 77%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

DNS of ignition and flame stabilization in a simplified gas turbine premixer

With the increasing need for fuel flexibility, mitigation of auto-ignition (AI) inside gas turbine (GT) premixers becomes crucial. They must be designed to yield a sufficiently homogeneous fuel-air mixture to achieve low emissions while at the same time avoiding the occurrence of AI and subsequent flame stabilization. This challenge requires a detailed understanding of turbulent mixing and chemistry interactions. In the present work, a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of an array of jets in crossflow (JICF), representative of an industrial GT premixer, is reported to shed light on these complex phenomena. It is found that AI kernels form in the aft part of the premixer and coalesce into a flame front that then propagates upstream, mainly through the boundary layer, and successively engulfs the jets. This, therefore, suggests a significant role of the jet array pattern on the flame stabilization. It is noted that AI kernels continue to form independently during the whole time of the simulation. To clarify the contribution of AI and diffusion in the ignition kernels and the main flame, chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) is employed jointly with a kernel tracking algorithm. It is found that during the initial formation of the flame, many ignition kernels form in mixtures with low scalar dissipation rate and large contribution from AI mode. As they quickly grow, they merge into a single flame front that becomes increasingly more diffusion-assisted over time, balancing the AI mode. Turbulence is shown to have a significant enhancing effect in lean premixed flames, but further analysis is required to fully characterize it. These findings are relevant for the industrial premixer studied, and also for novel micromix concepts that may be used in the next generation of GT combustion systems.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Station Impact Analysis 2025

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium, the NextGen Profiles (NGP) project presents analysis and results from the study of High Power Charging Electric Vehicles and Battery Charging Infrastructure. High Power Charging equipment is capable of recharging electric vehicle traction batteries at power levels of 200KW and above. The intent of the project is to further understand the most recent technological capabilities of the electric mobility industry related to charging performance. The project aims to develop EV, EVSE, and Fleet characterization testing practices and comprehensive analysis with inputs from key industry stakeholders. The results published in this NextGen Profiles project report provide data and insight for use by numerous entities including modeling and simulation organizations, policy makers, fleet planners, industry stakeholders and the general public involved with the development, deployment and operation of electrified transportation technologies. The factors influencing Electric Vehicle (EV) Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC), including EV battery specifications, temperature effects on lithium-ion battery and power electronics performance, lithium-ion battery SOC bounding and charging station design considerations are specifically investigated to analyze their impacts on charging station operation and recommendations are made to minimize charge station dwell time, reduce charging costs and mitigate electric grid and charge station congestion. Additional high-power charging results are anticipated in future publications in support of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium NextGen Profiles project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Transportation Electrification Impact Study (TEIS)

Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notices of proposed rulemakings for GHG emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty on-road vehicles would accelerate ongoing advancements already happening in the industry because of private investment, consumer demand, state-level policies, and federal incentives. As the EPA finalizes these regulations, questions persist regarding the cost of the requisite charging infrastructure and associated upgrades to the nation's electric grid. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, and the EPA, a multidisciplinary team conducted a Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study that quantitatively assesses the incremental investment necessary to enable the levels of vehicle electrification expected to be induced by pending EPA regulations and to estimate the potential value of deferred investments in electric distribution infrastructure stemming from proactive vehicle-grid integration planning and deployment. This study finds the simulated incremental capital cost of charging infrastructure (including grid upgrades) to be at least 2.5 times smaller than the lifetime net benefits of vehicle electrification (including fuel savings but excluding the value of avoided emissions). Additionally, the incremental distribution grid upgrade cost of the EPA Action-Unmanaged scenario was found to be approximately 3% of existing utility distribution system investments (on an annual basis). Finally, the potential for managed charging to defer distribution grid upgrades was found to be significant with costs found to decrease from $2.3 billion to an incremental cost of $1 billion across five states in the Action-Managed scenario (relative to the No Action-Unmanaged scenario).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND

Technology progress and clean vehicle policies on fleet turnover and equity: insights from household vehicle fleet micro-simulations with $\text{ATLAS}$

This paper documents the design and application of ATLAS (Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based ASsignment), a comprehensive household vehicle transaction and technology adoption micro-simulator in the San Francisco Bay Area. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the vehicle transaction and choice decisions in response to co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. While most existing literature has focused on the aggregate clean vehicle uptake, this paper differentiates distributional effects and decomposes the underlying mechanisms across heterogeneous sub-populations of households. Using scenarios and sensitivity simulations that vary vehicle technology and policy assumptions, we find that Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) penetrate into higher income groups at a faster rate than into lower income groups, which is intuitive and aligns with expectations. Interestingly, the relative income disparity in ZEV ownership shrinks over time across all scenarios, with a ZEV mandate coupled with declining battery cost leading to the greatest reduction in disparity of ZEV ownership by 2050. Federal, state, and local financial incentives influence the redistribution of ZEV uptake across income groups and contribute to narrowing income disparity. Vehicle transaction frequency and new versus used market dynamics are found to be important factors contributing to the income disparity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Battery State of Health Estimator: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

NREL has developed a software tool to enable Renewance to estimate the degradation of batteries from basic information such as the type of battery and the application of that battery during its first life, so that used batteries may be evaluated for potential repurposing at low cost. This software tool utilizes NREL's BLAST-Lite battery degradation modeling code, which was updated with additional models for commercially produced lithium-ion batteries as a part of this CRADA. The software tool enables users to input details such as battery type and application so that lifetime estimates can be made without any programming or expert battery knowledge. The application input loads in saved values for parameters such as cycles per year, depth-of-discharge, and other battery operating parameters from a file defined by Renewance. These parameters may be modified to refine simulations for specific batteries. The software tool also incorporates a degradation model optimization tool, whereby existing battery degradation models may be tuned according to measured battery health. This ensures that new models still predict degradation behaviors expected from a certain battery chemistry, but with the overall degradation rate tuned to a specific battery make and model. The new model can then be saved for estimating the degradation of other similar batteries. An additional task was planned to utilize machine-learning to enable battery health diagnosis from rapid EIS measurements to accelerate the screening of used batteries. This task was not completed due to lack of available data for training a machine-learning model. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: Further development of open-source software tool BLAST-Lite for predicting the lifetime of commercially produced Lithium-ion batteries (NREL SWR-22-69).

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator

Aviation Fuel Characterization at Operationally Relevant Conditions

To accelerate approval and potentially expand the allowable property range for aviation fuels, we are using high performance computing simulations to reveal fuel property effects on aviation combustor performance. These simulations are supported by fuel property measurements over temperatures and pressures that the fuel experiences in an aircraft engine and by validated chemical kinetics models for SAF combustion. Here we report density, viscosity, and surface tension results for conventional jet fuel and multiple synthetic fuels from -30 degrees Celsius to 200 degrees Celsius (-40 degrees Celsius for viscosity) and 1 atm to 70 atm including an assessment of method repeatability. Properties of surrogate mixtures are also investigated. Distillation, ICN, LHV, flashpoint, and Cp are also reported, and data are being used to develop models to predict fuel properties from composition (GCxGC).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Spatiotemporal Optimization of Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Station Demand

With increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, managing public fast-charging demand effectively is crucial to avoid grid strain. This study investigates the potential of using dynamic pricing schemes to address this challenge. Presented in this study is a scalable agent-based simulation framework, which is applied to a case study in Richmond, Virginia, that assumes a 50% EV adoption rate in 2040. Two pricing schemes are compared: (1) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on station utilization and (2) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on peak power at the station. These schemes are compared to two baseline scenarios: (1) unscheduled first-come, first-served and (2) scheduled with constant price. The study’s results suggest that dynamic pricing has the potential to influence EV charging behavior, inducing both spatial and temporal shifts, but does so at the cost of inducing inconvenience to EV drivers. The results suggest the peak-power dynamic pricing scheme has the potential to mitigate peak demand pressures on the grid with minimal inconvenience, offering a promising approach for sustainable EV charging infrastructure expansion.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

HD ADOPT: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

HD ADOPT is a logit consumer vehicle choice and stock model that analyzes the Class 8 tractor market. The model projects future technology shares, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under input assumptions of technology progress, energy prices, and policies. ADOPT is distinguished from other vehicle choice models through inclusion of non-linear and heterogenous consumer preferences and characterization of the full range of market options rather than use of composite vehicles. In addition, ADOPT has integrated vehicle simulation capabilities that enable performance assessment and optimization of endogenous technology evolution. Optionally, the model is able to adjust this evolution to enforce compliance with fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. Primary results include projection of technology shares and future in-use fleet energy demand, petroleum consumption, and GHG emissions. This enables analysis and comparison of future scenarios of technology improvements, economic conditions, and national policies. Recent new features for the HD modeling also enable examination of different on-board hydrogen fuel storage technologies from the lens of consumer preferences for vehicle cost and range. This report documents current ADOPT capabilities and methodologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Numerical investigation of equivalence ratio effects on Flex-Fuel mixing controlled combustion enabled by prechamber ignition

There is interest in adapting renewable and low-carbon intensity fuels to heavy-duty engines to help displace criteria and greenhouse gas emissions associated with diesel combustion. Low-carbon fuels have inherently low cetane numbers and thus pose a significant challenge when considering direct substitution in diesel combustion systems. Use of an actively fueled prechamber as an ignition source to initiate mixing-controlled combustion (PC-MCC) of low-cetane fuels is becoming an attractive combustion mode to alleviate the identified reactivity deficit. This work focuses on the utilization of an active prechamber to facilitate diesel-like combustion of bioethanol-gasoline fuel blends in a heavy-duty engine. Recent results in this emerging technology suggest that ignition quality is uniquely coupled to prechamber equivalence ratio. In this numerical study, the fundamental implications of prechamber equivalence ratio on the ignition performance of direct injected fuels ranging from E10 to E100 are investigated using CONVERGE. Parametric studies of the prechamber operating strategy were assessed at diesel-like conditions to characterize the performance trends relative to a diesel baseline at the same boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that PC-MCC is flex-fuel capable and achieves diesel-like ignition qualities and combustion processes for all fuels considered under stoichiometric and rich prechamber conditions. To characterize the equivalence ratio trends observed, a novel inflow boundary modeling technique was utilized to prescribe turbulent jets in place of the prechamber where selective speciation of the jet composition was conducted to isolate the ignition contributions of radical and reacting species in lean, stoichiometric, and rich jets. The inflow boundary modeling suggests that excess fuel and combustion intermediates present in jets produced from stratified and fuel-rich prechamber operation promotes higher jet temperatures and as such are superior ignition sources. Relative to a lean prechamber jet, the peak temperature of a reacting jet from a rich prechamber was up to 600 K hotter at fixed distances from the orifice exit. Furthermore, radicals also demonstrated an influence on the ignition process, but the combustion mode was identified to be thermally dominant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Planetary waves can activate resonant drag instabilities in 3D dusty gaseous discs

Resonant drag instabilities (RDIs) in protoplanetary discs are driven by the aerodynamic back-reaction of dust on gas and occur when the relative dust-gas motion resonate with a wave mode intrinsic to the gas fluid. Axisymmetric models indicate that the RDI generates filamentary perturbations, leading to grain clumping and planetesimal formation. Motivated by these findings, we investigate the dust–gas interaction in a non-axisymmetric inviscid protoplanetary disc with an embedded low-mass planet ($M_{\mathrm{p}}\in [0.3, 3] \, \rm M_{\oplus }$, here $\, \rm M_{\oplus }$ is the Earth mass). We conduct global 3D high-resolution two-fluid simulations, with the dust being parametrized by the Stokes number $\mathrm{St}\in [0.01,0.5]$. We find that planetary waves (PWs; also known as Rossby waves), which propagate along the downstream separatrices of the horseshoe region, resonate with the streaming motion and trigger the RDI. The consequent development of a global-scale filamentary dust distribution does not sensitively depend on the Stokes number, nor does it depend on the fast dust settling that takes place in an inviscid disc. The rapid onset of this instability, which is comparable to the dynamical orbital time-scale, suppresses the formation of asymmetric structures in the dust in the vicinity of the planet (such as dust voids and filaments). Additionally, we find that the dust feedback enables buoyancy resonances in an otherwise non-buoyant (globally isothermal) disc. Therefore, our results provide the first numerical evidence of RDIs generation driven by planetary waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

MULTI-LEADER: MULTI-source LEarning-Accelerated Design of high-Efficiency multi-stage compRessor (Final Technical Report)

The objective of MULTI-LEADER is to cut design costs by 80% while generating more energy-efficient designs of multi-stage compressors by developing and implementing novel machine learning (ML) techniques, which enable faster and fewer design iterations, improved solver performance, and concurrent multi-disciplinary design. Current industrial practices for the design of multi-stage compressors involve simulation-based design optimization with successive levels of model fidelity, iteratively evaluated between distinct disciplines, one stage at a time to tackle the high dimensional design variations. This project addresses these key design challenges: (1) concurrent optimization of multiple stages under many non-linear constraints; (2) multitude of evaluation of high-fidelity and expensive solvers and their gradients during optimization convergence in high-dimensional design; (3) multi-disciplinary design to maximize aerodynamic performance while guaranteeing structural integrity and additive manufacturability; (4) utilization of multiple fidelity of solvers with disparate parameterization and modeling assumptions. MULTI-LEADER achieved more than 5x speed up in detailed design of more energy-efficient compressors via these machine learning (ML) innovations: (i) rapid design surrogates by multi-source learning from diverse fidelities across multiple disciplines, (ii) physics-constrained data-augmented modeling for improved empiricism, (iii) generative manifold embedding for high dimensional concurrent design without gradient information; (iv) budget-constrained fidelity-adaptive sampling towards fewer design iterations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES