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DOE OSTI2021

Chapter 4: Wind Energy Politics and Economics

A new paradigm for wind energy policy is emerging that is driven by rapidly decreasing costs, increasing market share and the need for more energy system services provided by wind energy. Increased recognition of the diversity of policy needs, tailored to the conditions of each respective jurisdiction, is another significant aspect of this new paradigm. This evolving perspective has come about as onshore wind energy has become the most competitive technology for new energy production in many countries, reducing the need for direct financial support. Accordingly, while the need for wind energy policy support continues, it is becoming increasingly nuanced and focused on serving an array of social objectives associated with the broader evolution of the energy sector. In the future, successful wind energy policies will increasingly be related to creating enabling environments and adapting frameworks, as opposed to focusing on direct investment incentives alone. This reflects a fundamental shift in the perspectives and roles of policy-makers. This is the focus of this chapter, in which we first provide an overview of the state of the art in wind energy policy, followed by upcoming policy challenges and research needs. We conclude with our perspective on the future focus of wind energy policy research.

policy↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Guide to Updating Interconnection Rules and Incorporating IEEE Standard 1547

The intent of this paper is to support local authorities in adopting the most current technical requirements for interconnecting distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system as specified in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Standard for Interconnection and Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces (IEEE Std 1547-2018). To create interconnection rules that successfully address policy goals, market trends, and technical requirements, state regulators need to be well informed of DER integration considerations. Interconnection processes and technical issues often overlap; the two are not easily segregated, and they are often considered and evaluated concurrently within the context of interconnection rulemaking. Accordingly, this paper addresses both the technical issues and related process considerations. A lack of uniform and transparent procedures for addressing interconnection rule changes can result in implementation issues or inefficiencies, such as unclear, lengthy, and complicated interconnection rules that can increase distributed generation "soft costs" (i.e., non-hardware costs). This can further delay the deployment of DERs and jeopardize time-constrained national and state policy goals, such as renewable energy targets, or limit participation in emerging techno-economic trends. Additionally, misconstructed interconnection rules are at risk of becoming mired in stakeholder conflicts. This guide addresses the concerns of electric service regulators from both the process and technical standpoints by presenting a structured, step-by-step approach to developing and updating existing interconnection rules. In this document, the process of developing and updating interconnection rules is subdivided into three steps: (1) determining the context (stakeholders and major drivers); (2) developing the rule, including updating technical requirements; and (3) maintaining and revising the rule over time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

​​Updates to Anaerobic Digestion Pathways for Animal Manure in R&D GREET 2025​

Livestock and poultry manure management in the U.S. is a greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive process, emitting 81.7 MMT CO 2 e in 2022 (1.5% of net U.S. GHG emissions). The primary GHG is methane (CH 4 ), with 2,312 kt released in 2022 (9% of U.S. CH 4 emissions). Manure management methods are commonly categorized by whether they are anaerobic (“wet”) or aerobic (“dry”) techniques. Although dry methods manage the largest share of manure, the majority of GHG emissions are generated during storage of manure in anaerobic conditions – typically in water-filled tanks, pits, or lagoons. There has been a 65% increase in emissions from 1990, primarily due to an increasing cattle population. Also, this rise in population has been coupled with a rise in animal confinement and density, which typically adopt wet manure management methods. Within wet methods, anaerobic bacteria proliferate and decompose volatile solids (VS) within the manure in a process called anaerobic digestion to produce roughly equal mixtures of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). These GHGs are fugitive, in that they are assumed to be released to the atmosphere and contribute to GHGs within U.S. GHG inventories. If the methane is captured and purified (i.e., “upgraded”) this simultaneously mitigates GHGs that would have otherwise been released and produces a valuable energy product known colloquially as Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). Such processes are acknowledged by U.S. policy through programs such as the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), the federal Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z), and state clean fuel standards (CFS). In the 45Z and CFS schemes, the GHG emissions of the business-as-usual (BAU) manure management system is taken as a baseline, and credits are received based on GHG reductions relative to this baseline. Thus, estimating the GHG emissions of the BAU scenario (also known as the “counterfactual”) is necessary.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China

Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

SAM™ (System Advisor Model™) [SWR-16-02, SWR-10-13]

See the SAM™ website to build a desktop version of the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR's) System Advisor Model™ (SAM). https://sam.nlr.gov/ The System Advisor Model™ (SAM™) is a free techno-economic software model that facilitates decision-making for people in the renewable energy industry: -Project managers and engineers -Policy analysts -Technology developers -Researchers SAM can model many types of renewable energy systems: -Photovoltaic systems, from small residential rooftop to large utility-scale systems -Battery storage with Lithium ion, lead acid, or flow batteries for front-of-meter or behind-the-meter applications -Concentrating Solar Power systems for electric power generation, including parabolic trough, power tower, and linear Fresnel -Industrial process heat from parabolic trough and linear Fresnel systems -Wind power, from individual turbines to large wind farms -Marine energy wave and tidal systems -Solar water heating -Fuel cells -Geothermal power generation -Biomass combustion for power generation -High concentration photovoltaic systems SAM's financial models are for the following types of projects: -Residential and commercial projects where the renewable energy system is on the customer side of the electric utility meter (behind the meter), and power from the system is used to reduce the customer's electricity bill. -Power purchase agreement (PPA) projects where the system is connected to the grid at an interconnection point, and the project earns revenue through power sales. The project may be owned and operated by a single owner or by a partnership involving a flip or leaseback arrangement. -Third party ownership where the system is installed on the customer's (host) property and owned by a separate entity (developer), and the host is compensated for power generated by the system through either a PPA or lease agreement. For a more detailed description of SAM, see Blair et al. (2018), System Advisor Model (SAM) General Description (Version 2017.9.5), NREL/TP-6A20-70414. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70414.pdf

Ryberg, David↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Reinforcement Learning-MPC Approach for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration

This paper proposes a hybrid control approach for distribution system critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while MPC models grid operations incorporating RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. We formulate the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The RL algorithm is trained offline using a historical forecast of renewable generation and load demand. The method is tested using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery. Case studies demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other policies with static operating reserves.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2020

Renewable Energy for Resilience & Adaptation

Presentation that provides an overview about NREL and JISEA, updates on energy technology markets and trends with detailed example about wind turbines, and relationship of renewable energy to adaptation and resilience.

adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting a Clean Energy Economy 2013-2018

The National Governor’s Association Center for Best Practices energy staff is focused on developing and implementing innovative solutions to state energy policy challenges. Among NGA’s energy teams focus are topics such as energy affordability, resilience, and reliability, which align with priorities of DOE’s WIP office. Given NGA’s direct connections with governors’ offices and longstanding support to governors’ policy staff on energy efficiency, renewable energy, resilience, reliability, affordability, and related topics, we are well suited to work alongside the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to support governors’ offices and key energy staff, address longstanding challenges, and deliver best practice solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. Here, this work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset For: A Guide to Residential Energy Storage and Rooftop Solar: State Net Metering Policies and Utility Rate Tariff Structures

Federal and state decarbonization goals have led to numerous financial incentives and policies designed to increase access and adoption of renewable energy systems. In combination with the declining cost of both solar photovoltaic and battery energy storage systems and rising electric utility rates, residential renewable adoption has become more favorable than ever. However, not all states provide the same opportunity for cost recovery, and the complicated and changing policy and utility landscape can make it difficult for households to make an informed decision on whether to install a renewable system. This paper is intended to provide a guide to households considering renewable adoption by introducing relevant factors that influence renewable system performance and payback, summarized in a state lookup table for quick reference. Five states are chosen as case studies to perform economic optimizations based on net metering policy, utility rate structure, and average electric utility price; these states are selected to be representative of the possible combinations of factors to aid in the decision-making process for customers in all states. The results of this analysis highlight the dual importance of both state support for renewables and price signals, as the benefits of residential renewable systems are best realized in states with net metering policies facing the challenge of above-average electric utility rates. This dataset is intended to allow readers to reproduce and customize the analysis performed in this work to their benefit. Suggested modifications include: location, household load profile, rate tariff structure, and renewable energy system design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Overview of Policies Influencing Air Pollution from the Electricity Sector in Central Asia

The electricity sector is a substantial source of air pollution and associated health problems in Central Asia and elsewhere. Fossil-fueled power plants emit a wide variety of harmful pollutants and their chemical precursors. The pollutants with the greatest health impacts are particulate matter and ozone. Once released into the atmosphere, there is no practical way to remove air pollutants, which means that policies designed to improve air quality have to limit the pollutants before release. However, tackling such pollution is challenging, particularly in developing economies, due to the need to provide electricity as a basic necessity for citizens and as an engine of economic growth. This report provides examples of policies impacting air pollution from the electricity sector in the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It is a partner publication to an earlier report that addressed policies in South Asia. As with the South Asia report, information on policies in some countries was difficult to locate; therefore, this is not a comprehensive study, but rather an overview or "scan" of the sector that includes examples of: (1) policies that directly regulate air quality by limiting emissions from specific point sources (by restricting operating hours, for instance); and (2) indirect policies that incentivize or disincentivize polluting activities, such as policies to encourage fuel switching to or from cleaner renewable resources. Note that this report was prepared before the Russia-Ukraine conflict and therefore doesn't address consequences of that war for Central Asia. The report finds: (1) That Central Asian countries typically have relatively few policy instruments available for regulating national air emissions; (2) That many countries, especially those that have a mismatch between seasonal demand and resource availability, could improve energy security and reduce air pollution through increased cross-border electricity trade; (3) That some countries have seemingly contradictory policies (promoting both coal and renewables, for instance). This report is also available in Russian: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85192.pdf.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tackling Grand Challenges in Wind Energy through a Socio-Technical Perspective

Wind power has an important role to play in tackling climate change. Key challenges in wind energy science and innovation must be overcome to increase the penetration and capability of this technology. However, the success of these efforts heavily depends on how society engages with the development of wind power infrastructure. Consequently, grand challenges exist in both technical and social domains, yet little research has made substantial efforts in connecting them. Here we review the social science and humanities literature on wind energy to illustrate the social dimensions of previously identified technical challenges. We suggest that a socio-technical lens enables an interdisciplinary approach to overcome the prevalent tendency of silo thinking in wind energy research and use it to explore socio-technical grand challenges related to the design, planning, development, operational and end-of-life phases of wind energy. Finally, we provide an outlook for research, practice and innovation, including an interdisciplinary and socio-technical research agenda for wind energy science, renewable energy developments and science policy in general.

end-of-life↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR (Hybird-Reinforcement-Learning-Model-Predictive-Control-for-Reserve-Policy-Assisted-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Distribution-Grids)

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR was developed as a hybrid controller for active distribution grid critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. The RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while the MPC models grid operations incorporating the RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. The developers formulated the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The software is developed using various software packages in Python. The MPC's optimal power flow (OPF) model is implemented using the Pyomo package, the RL simulation environment is implemented using the MPC simulation with various scenarios of renewable energy and load demand profiles and power outage beginning times, based on the OpenAI Gym framework. The RL agent training is performed using the RLlib Ray package. The RL algorithm is trained offline using historical forecasts of renewable generation and load demand profiles. Simulation analysis and performance tests are conducted using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulators’ Energy Transition Primer: Economic Impacts of the Energy Transition on Energy Communities, Environmental Justice Considerations, and Implications on Clean Energy Jobs

Applications of new technology, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, enabled the United States to significantly increase its production of oil and natural gas during the last decade—the “Shale Gas Revolution.” As natural gas began to dominate the market with abundant supply and low prices, coal production and consumption have declined. Concurrently, the competitiveness of renewable energy and energy storage has climbed sharply, and analysts expect to see continued reductions in fossil fuel use in the coming decades. Many of these changes have been driven by market forces (i.e., low-cost natural gas and renewables), but current and future policy decisions aimed at tackling climate change concerns and reducing greenhouse gas emissions will also shape the future of the energy sector. This transition to low-carbon fuels has created both opportunities for clean energy technologies and challenges for communities traditionally dependent on fossil fuel-related industries. The power sector’s ongoing shift away from coal has left many coal miners and coal-fired power plant employees unemployed and often unprepared for jobs in other industries, including growing clean energy fields. This primer focuses on the declining coal industry, impacts on communities and workers, opportunities to transition workers who have lost their jobs to clean energy and other related sectors (including hydrogen-oriented jobs), recruitment and training strategies, and available programs and actions to make the shift to a low-carbon economy in a fair, just, and equitable manner by engaging the resources of federal and state governments, as well as the private sector.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗