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DOE OSTI2021

Event-Based Analysis of Solar Power Distribution Feeder Using Micro-PMU Measurements

Solar distribution feeders are commonly used in solar farms that are integrated into distribution substations. In this paper, we focus on a real-world solar distribution feeder and conduct an event-based analysis by using micro-PMU measurements. The solar distribution feeder of interest is a behind-the-meter solar farm with a generation capacity of over 4 MW that has about 200 low-voltage distributed photovoltaic (PV) inverters. The event-based analysis in this study seeks to address the following practical matters. First, we conduct event detection by using an unsupervised machine learning approach. For each event, we determine the event’s source region by an impedancebased analysis, coupled with a descriptive analytic method. We segregate the events that are caused by the solar farm, i.e., locallyinduced events, versus the events that are initiated in the grid, i.e., grid-induced events, which caused a response by the solar farm. Second, for the locally-induced events, we examine the impact of solar production level and other significant parameters to make statistical conclusions. Third, for the grid-induced events, we characterize the response of the solar farm; and make comparisons with the response of an auxiliary neighboring feeder to the same events. Fourth, we scrutinize multiple specific events; such as by revealing the dynamics to the control system of the solar distribution feeder. The results and discoveries in this study are informative to utilities and solar power industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adversarial super-resolution of climatological wind and solar data

Accurate and high-resolution data reflecting different climate scenarios are vital for policy makers when deciding on the development of future energy resources, electrical infrastructure, transportation networks, agriculture, and many other societally important systems. However, state-of-the-art long-term global climate simulations are unable to resolve the spatiotemporal characteristics necessary for resource assessment or operational planning. We introduce an adversarial deep learning approach to super resolve wind velocity and solar irradiance outputs from global climate models to scales sufficient for renewable energy resource assessment. Using adversarial training to improve the physical and perceptual performance of our networks, we demonstrate up to a 50 × resolution enhancement of wind and solar data. In validation studies, the inferred fields are robust to input noise, possess the correct small-scale properties of atmospheric turbulent flow and solar irradiance, and retain consistency at large scales with coarse data. An additional advantage of our fully convolutional architecture is that it allows for training on small domains and evaluation on arbitrarily-sized inputs, including global scale. We conclude with a super-resolution study of renewable energy resources based on climate scenario data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the PV Resource Dataset in Central and North America: Preprint

A recent effort from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has led to a new radiative transfer model, Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT), to efficiently compute plane-of-array (POA) irradiance. This model has been implemented by the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to provide photovoltaic (PV) resource over Central and North America in both narrow- and broad wavelength bands. This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the PV resource dataset using surface-based observations in various climate zones. The results demonstrate the PV resource has an excellent agreement with the cloudy-sky observations from thermopiles and reference cells.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Evaluation of the Spectral Irradiance Data from the NSRDB

A recent effort by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has led to a new radiative transfer model, the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT), to efficiently compute spectral irradiances in the plane-of-array (POA). This model has been implemented in the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to provide photovoltaic (PV) resource in both narrowband and broadband wavelengths. This study conducts an evaluation of the spectral irradiances from the PV Resource dataset using surface-based observations at NREL’s Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) and University of Oregon (UO). The results demonstrate that the PV resource has a generally good agreement with the long-term observations in both clear-sky and cloudy-sky conditions. Further research is needed to reduce the overestimation of visible irradiances in clear sky conditions and underestimation of near-infrared irradiances in cloudy-sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data on temporal complementarity of hybrid renewable energy systems [SWR-23-09]

These datasets describe multiple facets of the temporal complementarity of co-located hybrid renewable energy systems throughout the United States. Several metrics characterizing the complementarity of generation profiles are provided on an annual and monthly basis (for both hourly and daily aggregations). These generation profiles are underpinned by hourly resource data (e.g., the WIND Toolkit and National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)) spanning the multi-year period 2007-2013. The data include complementarity results for greater than 1.76 million individual locations within the continental United States (CONUS). The data are intended to accompany two publications on the topic of temporal complementarity: 1) Harrison-Atlas, Dylan, Caitlin Murphy, Anna Schleifer, and Nicholas Grue. "Temporal complementarity and value of wind-PV hybrid systems across the United States." Renewable Energy 201 (2022): 111-123, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.10.060; and 2) Murphy, Caitlin, Harrison-Atlas, Dylan, Nicholas Grue, Vahan Gevorgian, Juan Gallego-Calderon, Shiloh Elliot and Thomas Mosier. “A Resource Assessment for FlexPower”. NREL Technical Report.

Harrison-Atlas, Dylan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solar Radiation Measurements (CRADA Final Report)

Long-term solar radiation measurements are important for understanding solar resource availability and variability for systems design and deployment of cost-effective solar resource technologies. Additionally high-quality traceable solar measurements are required to validate satellite-based solar resource datasets that provide high-resolution long-term data covering the US. The purpose and intent of this agreement is to collect long-term solar radiation and meteorological measurements from the state-of-the-art facility at the University of Arizona to meet the above needs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A simple and fast algorithm for estimating the capacity credit of solar and storage

Energy storage is a leading option to enhance the resource adequacy contribution of solar energy. Detailed analysis of the capacity credit of solar energy and energy storage is limited in part due to the data intensive and computationally complex nature of probabilistic resource adequacy assessments. This paper presents a simple algorithm for calculating the capacity credit of energy-limited resources that, due to the low computational and data needs, is well suited to exploratory analysis. Validation against benchmarks based on probabilistic techniques shows that it can yield similar insights. The method is used to evaluate the impact of different solar and storage configurations, particularly with respect to the strategy for coupling storage and solar photovoltaic systems. Furthermore, application of the method to a case study of utilities in Florida, where solar is rapidly growing and demand peaks in the winter and summer, demonstrates that it can improve on rules of thumb used in practice by some utilities. If storage is required to charge only from solar, periods of high demand driven by cold weather events accompanied by lower solar production can result in a capacity credit of solar and storage that is less than the capacity credit of storage alone.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2021 [Slides]

Proposed large-scale electric generation and storage projects must apply for interconnection to the bulk power system via interconnection queues. While most projects that apply for interconnection are not subsequently built, data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in developer interest. Berkeley Lab compiled and analyzed data from all seven ISOs/RTOs in concert with 35 non-ISO utilities, representing an estimated 85% of all U.S. electricity load. We include all "active" projects in these generation interconnection queues through the end of 2021, as well as data on "operational" and "withdrawn" projects where those data are available. We find that the amount of new electric capacity in these queues is growing dramatically, with over 1,400 gigawatts (GW) of total generation and storage capacity now seeking connection to the grid (over 90% of which is for zero-carbon resources like solar, wind, and battery storage). Solar (676 GW) and battery storage (~420 GW) are – by far – the fastest growing resources in the queues; combined they accounted for nearly 85% of new capacity entering the queues in 2021. Substantial wind (247 GW) capacity is also seeking interconnection, 31% of which is for offshore projects (77 GW). In total, about 930 GW of zero-carbon generating capacity is currently seeking transmission access, as is 74 GW of natural gas capacity. Hybrids now comprise a large – and increasing – share of proposed projects, particularly in CAISO and the non-ISO West. 286 GW of solar hybrids (primarily solar+battery) and 19 GW of wind hybrids are currently active in the queues; nearly half of battery storage in the queues is paired with generation. However, much of this proposed capacity will be withdrawn from the queues and not built. Among a subset of queues for which data are available, only 23% of the projects seeking connection from 2000 to 2016 have subsequently been built. Completion percentages appear to be declining and are even lower for wind and solar than other resources. Additionally, wait times are on the rise: for the regions with available data, the typical duration from connection request to commercial operation increased from ~2.1 years for projects built in 2000-2010 to ~3.7 years for those built in 2011-2021.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

American-Made Solar Prize: Edgeli Enables DER Integration (CRADA 615) (Final Report)

The purpose of this project was to demonstrate how granular time series data and automated data transformation, and impact assessment tools could speed interconnection approvals for distributed energy resource projects of various types and sizes. Types included community solar, rooftop solar, and EV charging projects. Using software routines to automate the transformation of data (e.g. GIS) to a network database and power flow model then applying scenarios to create hourly (8760) hosting capacity values and voltage and thermal impacts for specific projects, we were able to demonstrate the feasibility of quickly assembling and analyzing key utility data sets for interconnection purposes. The outcomes of this effort will become the foundation for future work that will enhance and encapsulate the software components developed as part of this project, into web services (e.g. APIs) that can be integrated into queue management systems and automate interconnection screening processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solar Radiometer Instrumentation Evaluation: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-16-00619)

The purpose and intent of this agreement is to evaluate newly manufactured thermopile pyranometers and spectroradiometers. The purpose also extends to provide a framework for Participant to conduct research to improve and develop new radiometric devices and application in the future. The overall objective is to provide more accurate, site-specific, long-term, continuous measurements of the solar resources needed by industry to increase the deployment and improve the operations of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power plants. This CRADA addresses the needs for proven solar irradiance measurement to validate resource assessment models and generate high quality data used for site selection, energy system design, deployment, maintenance, and operation. This work will be conducted at NREL and Participant facilities. This project will place instrumentation at the NREL Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) in cooperation with EKO Instruments, USA. Participant instruments will be deployed for the purpose of evaluation under controlled conditions. The scope of the project will be a 3 years-long segmented comparison of the instruments vs. other NREL baseline instruments with a well-characterized history. These evaluations will include planned improvements to instruments as well as extensions of future instrument applications. The final evaluation will be a written report similar to the work done by Wilcox and Myers (see http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/44627.pdf).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2022

Savings in Action: Lessons from Observed and Modeled Residential Solar Plus Storage Systems

The electric grid is rapidly evolving as small-scale, demand-side resources play increasingly important roles in grid operations and decarbonization. Maximizing the potential of demand-side resources involves incentivizing electricity customers to use those resources in ways that benefit the broader electrical grid. These incentives depend largely on the electricity cost savings that customers can realize from demand-side resource adoption. Determining these potential cost savings is a complex task. Cost savings depend on numerous factors, including the characteristics of different technologies, the algorithms that control these devices, system performance, customer behavior, electricity rate structures, and climatic factors. Another challenge is that estimated cost savings are frequently based on modeled rather than observed system performance, particularly in the academic literature. In this study, we begin to fill the gap in empirical research of demand-side resources using data from a new construction residential community equipped with rooftop solar and storage (S+S) in Arizona. We use these data to analyze the factors that determine customer electricity cost savings and emissions impacts of S+S in the real world. We then compare these data to modeled system performance to understand how models deviate from real-world outcomes. Based on these findings, we explore ways to improve such models and, conversely, use modeled results to suggest improvements to actual S+S deployment. The results of these analyses can be summarized in four key findings: 1) rate structures play a central role in the grid and customer value of demand-side resources; 2) certain customers can benefit more from demand-side resource adoption than others; 3) modeled battery dispatch and sizing reveals opportunities for additional cost savings; and 4) optimal dispatches can reduce grid emissions while maximizing bill savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying Potential Candidates for Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) in Bangladesh

Bangladesh faces several hurdles to achieving its renewable energy objectives, such as land availability and transmission congestion. Renewable Energy Zones (REZ), which are geographic areas with high-quality utility-scale renewable resources, suitable land topography, and commercial interest, can help address these challenges and support long-term generation and transmission planning. This study focuses on solar PV (fixed-tilt) and onshore wind, leveraging recently developed high temporal and spatial resolution resource data. In the moderate land exclusion scenario, large "study areas" are identified in Bangladesh with capacity factors in the top 25% for the entire country - 5 for wind and 8 for solar. Within these study areas, 19 candidates for REZ are identified based on the overlap between these study areas and upazilas (i.e., administrative subdivisions) containing economic development zones. Four of the identified candidate zones are opportunities for priority development, given the combination of strong wind and solar resources and the presence of economic zones. Furthermore, the geographic diversity of wind and solar resources in Bangladesh could help increase grid resilience by not concentrating all renewable energy development in the same region. Finally, pairing REZ with economic zones can bolster economic development, take advantage of large electricity demand, and leverage existing infrastructure investments.

Bangladesh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-enhanced Block-Diagram Modeling of Solar Power Systems

Data-driven models of power system inverter-based resources are desired to run simulations faster than with detailed electromagnetic transient models, to hide proprietary design details, to support control system design applications, and to aggregate the effects of distributed energy resources. This paper applies a customized Hammerstein Wiener framework to train block diagram models from thousands of electromagnetic transient simulations or experimental test records. The block diagram models integrate with larger grid simulations as voltagecontrolled current sources or current-controlled voltage sources for several simulators. Guidelines for block architecture and training are presented. Three-phase balanced, three-phase unbalanced, and single-phase examples all achieve an acceptable root mean square error of no more than 0.05 per-unit.

Mcdermott, Thomas E. [Private consulting company]↗

DOE OSTI2021

SPECs Early-Stage Decision Model: User Manual

The SPECs Early-Stage Decision (ESD) model is central to the SPECs procurement solutions toolkit. The ESD model is an Excel-based spreadsheet model, which provides information about the economic and strategic value of a proposed battery-storage project or solar-plus-storage (solar-plus) project. The model can be used to explore combinations of storage-related project value streams in order to define a potential project, while educating co-op decision-makers about project benefits and costs. A sensitivity analysis function speeds the development of "what-if" scenarios. A gap analysis function solves for top-priority metrics and supports the inclusion of hard-to-monetize strategic values, such as the value of storage to defer costly system upgrades in light of increasing distributed solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs). Model outputs include the utility data, assumptions, and use-case scenarios that are recommended content for the requests for proposals (RFPs). The model may also provide an initial "sanity check" for RFP responses, supporting further discussions among utility staff, vendors and stakeholders. The ESD is not a "finance-grade" modeling tool, and users are cautioned to be mindful of its limitations, but the model has been reviewed by users, who recommend it as a way to drive faster and better project design and planning, as well as to facilitate better communications with vendors, grid partners, and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Module Facts and Trends

Unprecedented growth of solar PV has led to growing concerns about PV module toxicity and potential environmental and human health impacts. This factsheet provides objective, science-based data to help address these concerns and empower communities with the resources they need to make solar PV decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗