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At least 73 records · Page 4

Nonlinear triggered lightning models for use in finite difference calculations

Two nonlinear triggered lightning models have been developed for use in finite difference calculations. Both are based on three species of air chemistry physics and couple nonlinearly calculated air conductivity to Maxwell's equations. The first model is suitable for use in three-dimensional modeling and has been applied to the analysis of triggered lightning on the NASA F106B Thunderstorm Research Aircraft. The model calculates number densities of positive ions, negative ions, and electrons as a function of time and space through continuity equations, including convective derivative terms. The set of equations is closed by using experimentally determined mobilities, and the mobilities are also used to determine the air conductivity. Results from the model's application to the F106B are shown. The second model is two-dimensional and incorporates an enhanced air chemistry formulation. Momentum conservation equations replace the mobility assumption of the first model. Energy conservation equations for neutrals, heavy ions, and electrons are also used. Energy transfer into molecular vibrational modes is accounted for. The purpose for the enhanced model is to include the effects of temperature into the air breakdown, a necessary step if the model is to simulate more than the very earliest stages of breakdown. Therefore, the model also incorporates a temperature-dependent electron avalanche rate. Results from the model's application to breakdown around a conducting ellipsoid placed in an electric field are shown.

Rudolph, Terence↗

A non-thermal mechanism for forcing cumulonimbus cloud

Within the thunderstorm there is an extensive region of collision between airflows having different transports of momentum. The inflow-updraft should interact with cloud layer environmental wind to produce counter-rotating vortex pairs somewhat like those produced in the laboratory by a jet in a crossflow. Atmospheric evidence of vortex pairs for severe thunderstorms is shown from measurements made by aircraft and by radar. A model of a non-thermal mechanism for low pressure centers in thunderstorms is developed which scales from the laboratory to the atmosphere using a turbulence Reynolds number, a velocity ratio and the diameter of the updraft. Central pressure deficits and vorticity of lee vortices scaled up from the laboratory observations are consistent with the few available thunderstorm measurements. The model is used to explain deviate motion of thunderstorms as well as to suggest a mechanism for tornado development and movement.

Connell, J.↗

The prediction of turbulence and wind shear associated with thunderstorm gust fronts

The parametric dependence of storm simulation is explored on the basis of the previously reported (1977) second-order closure model of turbulence designed to simulate a thunderstorm gust front. The model simulation results are intended for extrapolation to the conditions considered most hazardous to aircraft operation. It is shown that the presistence and strength of the gust front are enhanced significantly by increasing the spread of the downdraft shaft and the velocity at the top of the domain. Turbulence develops in the regions of high shear and is most intense near the corner and within the gust front itself. While the center shaft is certainly an area to be avoided, the gust front region is probably more critical because it may extend over a large region far from the center of the downdraft, in a highly transient state.

Teske, M. E.↗

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

The objective of the Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is to unravel the physical mechanisms and multi-scale interactions associated with aerosol-monsoon water cycle in the Asian Indo-Pacific region towards improved prediction of rainfall in land regions of the Asian monsoon. JAMEX will be planned as a five-year (2007-201 1) multi-national aerosol-monsoon research project, aimed at promoting collaboration, partnership and alignment of ongoing and planned national and international programs. Two coordinated special observing periods (SOP), covering the pre-monsoon (April-May) and the monsoon (June-August) periods is tentatively targeted for 2008 and 2009. The major work on validation and reference site coordination will take place in 2007 through the spring of 2008. A major science workshop is planned after SOP-I1 in 2010. Modeling and satellite data utilization studies will continue throughout the entire period to help in design of the observation arrays and measurement platforms for SOPS. The tentative time schedule, including milestones and research activities is shown in Fig. 1. One of the unique aspects of JAMEX is that it stems from grass-root scientific and societal imperatives, and it bridges a gap in existing national and international research programs. Currently we have identified 10 major national and international projects/programs separately for aerosols and monsoon research planned in the next five years in China, India, Japan, Italy, and the US, that could be potential contributors or partners with JAMEX. These include the Asian-Indo- Pacific Ocean (AIPO) Project and Aerosol Research Project from China, Monsoon Asian Hydro- Atmospheric Science Research and predication Initiative (MAHASRI) from Japan, Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) and Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) from India, Share-Asia from Italy, Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), Pacific Aerosol-Cloud-Dust Experiment (PACDEX), East Asia Study of Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems I Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

Lau, William K.M.↗

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

The objective of the Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is to unravel the physical mechanisms and multi-scale interactions associated with aerosol-monsoon water cycle in the Asian Indo-Paczj?c region towards improved prediction of rainfall in land regions of the Asian monsoon. JAMEX will be planned as a five-year (2007-201 1) multi-national aerosol-monsoon research project, aimed at promoting collaboration, partnership and alignment of ongoing and planned national and international programs. Two coordinated special observing periods (SOP), covering the pre-monsoon (April-May) and the monsoon (June-August) periods is tentatively targeted for 2008 and 2009. The major work on validation and reference site coordination will take place in 2007 through the spring of 2008. A major science workshop is planned after SOP-I1 in 2010. Modeling and satellite data utilization studies will continue throughout the entire period to help in design of the observation arrays and measurement platforms for SOPS. The tentative time schedule, including milestones and research activities is shown in Fig. 1. One of the unique aspects of JAMEX is that it stems from grass-root scientific and societal imperatives, and it bridges a gap in existing national and international research programs. Currently we have identified 10 major national and international projects/programs separately for aerosols and monsoon research planned in the next five years in China, India, Japan, Italy, and the US, that could be potential contributors or partners with JAMEX. These include the Asian-Indo- Pacific Ocean (AIPO) Project and Aerosol Research Project from China, Monsoon Asian Hydro- Atmospheric Science Research and predication Initiative (MAHASRI) from Japan, Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) and Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) from India, Share-Asia from Italy, Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), Pacific Aerosol-Cloud-Dust Experiment (PACDEX), East Asia Study of Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

Lau, WIlliam K. M.↗

UTSI atmospheric science program

Two areas of research were carried out concerned with meteorological and environmental inputs to aviation systems. One effort dealt with the investigation of wind fields about bluff geometries typical of buildings or other man made obstructions to the surface wind and the behavior of craft flying through these disturbed wind fields. The second effort was the definition and mathematical models of atmospheric wind shear associated with thunderstorms, stable boundary layers, and synoptic fronts. These mathematical models can be utilized in flight simulators to train pilots and flight crews and to develop instrumentation for landing in adverse wind shear conditions.

Frost, W.↗

Dual-Doppler lidar measurement of winds in the JAWS experiment

The use of coherent Doppler lidar measurements for analysis of wind fields near airports was investigated during the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) project of NASA and NOAA. Periodic lidar scans were made with two 10.6-micron CO2-pulsed Doppler lidars spaced 15 km apart in order to calculate the Cartesian wind fields near Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Analyses were also carried out for the flow behind gust fronts, with the desired flow fields corresponding both to surface winds measured by a Portable Automated Mesonet (PAM), and numerical models of Great Plains thunderstorm outflows. Comparison of low elevation scans carried out using the lidar instruments and a CP-4 Doppler radar showed distinct differences due to a bias toward weaker velocities in the radar measurements. The rms difference between the radar and the lidar measurements was 3.1 m/s. The experimental results were consistent with those of a previous study comparing Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) lidar with the CP-3 5.5-cm radar operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Rothermel, J.↗

A Wrf-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNO(x) Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Cloud physics↗

A WRF-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNOx Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were applied to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

Stalled Pulsing Inertial Oscillation Model for a Tornadic Cyclone

A supercell storm is a tall, rotating thunderstorm that can generate hail and tornadoes. Two models exist for the development of the storm's rotation or mesocyclone - the conventional splitting-storm model, and the more recent pulsing inertial oscillation (PIO) model, in which a nonlinear pulse represents the supercell. Although data support both models and both could operate in the same supercell, neither model has satisfactorily explained the tornadic cyclone. A tornadic cyclone is an elevated vorticity concentration of Rossby number approximately 1000 that develops within the contracting mesocyclone shortly before a major tornado appears at the surface. We now show that if the internal temperature excess due to latent energy release is limited to the realistic range of -12 K to +12 K, the PIO model can stall part way through the pulse in a state of contraction and spin-up. Should this happen, the stalled-PIO model can evolve into a tornadic cyclone with a central pressure deficit that exceeds 40 mb, which is greater than the largest measured value. This simulation uses data from a major tornadic supercell that occurred over Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA, on May 3, 1999. The stalled-PIO mechanism also provides a strategy for human intervention to retard or reverse the development of a tornadic cyclone and its pendant tornado.

Costen, Robert C.↗

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Manobianco, John↗

Effects of stratospheric lapse rate on numerically simulated thunderstorm cloud top structure

The three-dimensional anelastic model of Schlesinger (1975, 1978, 1984) is utilized to study the effects of stratospheric stability on thunderstorm cloud top structure. Three experiments were conducted; in the first the stratosphere is assumed isothermal, in the second test there is a temperature lapse of 3 K/km, and in the third case there is a 3 K/km inversion. Time variations of vertical velocity, mature storm structure, and cloud top are examined. It is observed that the cloud summit height is lowered as stratospheric stability increases, a cloud-top thermal couplet occurs in all cases, the cold region has a U or V shape, and there is a height minimum in the warm regions.

Schlesinger, Robert E.↗

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Case study of a bore wind-ramp event from lidar measurements and HRRR simulations over ARM Southern Great Plains

The rapid change of wind speed and direction on 21 August 2017 is studied using Doppler lidar measurements at five sites of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility in north-central Oklahoma. The Doppler lidar data were investigated along with meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and turbulence available from the large suite of instrumentation deployed at the SGP Central Facility (C1) during the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment in August 2017. Lidar measurements at five sites, separated by 55-70 km, allowed us to document the development and evolution of the wind flow over the SGP area, examine synoptic conditions to understand the mechanism that leads to the ramp event, and estimate the ability of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model to reproduce this event. The flow feature in question is an atmospheric bore, a small-scale phenomenon that is challenging to represent in models, that was generated by a thunderstorm outflow northwest of the ARM SGP area. The small-scale nature of bores, its impact on power generation, and the modeling challenges associated with representing bores are discussed in this paper. In conclusion, the results also provide information about model errors between sites of different surface and vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Providing operational guidance for the development of sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center - An experiment using a mesoscale numerical model

The effectiveness of a mesoscale numerical model to provide improved local forecast guidance is evaluated with respect to sea breeze convection storms at the Kennedy Space Center. The model and operational forecast guidance production are described. A case study is presented for sea breeze convection storms and lightning events on July 1, 1986. It is found that the mesoscale numerical model outperforms purely subjective predictions of sea breeze convection. The range of applications for the model are considered.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗