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Performance of reanalysis and mesoscale models off the coast of Hawai'i

The eastern Hawai'i coast in the United States is characterized by considerable wind resource fuelled by persistent trade winds, making it an important area for energy research. The need is strong for reanalyses and higher-resolution regional simulations where observations have been historically limited, such as Hawai'i's offshore environments. However, studies using offshore observations in other parts of the world have shown that significant errors can occur in reanalyses and wind datasets, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation, payback periods, and extreme weather risks at project locations. The degree of such errors is influenced by a number of factors, including spatial resolution and the handling of processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this work, we provide a wind resource characterization from year-long lidar buoy measurements off the eastern coast of O'ahu, Hawai'i, an environment previously unobserved at the rotor level, and use the characterization to evaluate the performance of two simulation datasets. The O'ahu deployment location is meteorologically unique and less complex than land-based wind resource characterizations, being strongly characterized by trade winds with minimal land–atmosphere interaction influences. Despite the unique and fairly consistent meteorological conditions, we hypothesize that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors similar to those that have been seen for other offshore locations. We find the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) to strongly underestimate observed wind speeds at the O'ahu location (bias = −1.54 m s −1 at a height of 140 m above sea level), while a regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation produced by the University of Hawai'i (UH-WRF) provides a significantly smaller wind speed bias (−0.25 m s −1 ), highlighting the value of running regional, higher-resolution simulations. The large bias noted for ERA5 is driven by significant underestimation of fast wind speeds (>9 m s −1 ), which the study site is largely characterized by, along with discontinuities in the ERA5 diurnal cycle. We also speculate that the relative sparsity of observations for data assimilation in this remote part of the world could influence the performance of ERA5 and that challenges with characterizing island effects could impact the performance of both datasets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Modeling Key Predictors of Airport Runway Configurations Using Learning Algorithms

Advanced traffic flow management automation will need accurate predictions of airport runway configurations. Terminal area weather and traffic demand are generally considered to be the most significant factors in predicting runway configuration. Weather information is forecasted across multiple features, including wind direction, wind speed, gusts, cloud ceilings, visibility, temperature, and precipitation, among many others. We use machine learning techniques on historical weather and runway data to determine weather features that correlate well with runway configurations. We analyze the predictive capability of weather features using different learning models trained on data from four major U.S. airports: Atlanta (ATL), Washington – Dulles (IAD), New York – Kennedy (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO). Wind direction alone is strongly correlated with runway configurations above all other examined factors, as expected. This correlation is the most significant component of the ~80% prediction accuracy in selecting between the two most frequently used runway configurations. However, individual airports show variations on how well the runway configuration decisions correlate with wind direction. While wind direction was identified as the most significant indicator of configuration decisions in ATL, IAD, and JFK, it did not emerge as such at SFO. Traffic demand was not found to be a strong factor in predicting runway configurations at any of the airports analyzed. In rare instances, when high demand cannot be accommodated within the current configuration, temporary changes are likely to be attributable to demand. However, these occurrences are so limited in number that their overall effect is not sufficient to consider traffic demand as a major indicator of runway configuration at the airports analyzed.

Bilimoria, Karl D.↗

Assessment of Geo-Kompsat-2A Atmospheric Motion Vector Data and Its Assimilation Impact in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

Korea’s second geostationary meteorological satellite, Geo-Kompsat-2A (Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A, GK2A), was successfully launched on 4 December 2018. GK2Agenerates Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) every 10 min in the full disk area. This data hasbeen disseminated via Global Telecommunication System (GTS) since 25 October 2019. This articleevaluates the quality of GK2A AMVs in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmosphericdata assimilation system (ADAS). The data show slow wind speed biases at 200–300 hPa and 600–800hPa in the northern and southern hemispheres. These biases are caused by observation heightassignment errors near jet streams. The Equivalent Blackbody Temperature (EBBT) method of GK2Atends to assign clouds at higher altitude, which mainly causes slow wind speed biases, especially inthe lower atmosphere. The IR/WV intercept method of GK2A assigns clouds slightly lower in theatmospheric layers below the altitude of 400 hPa, which causes positive biases. Quality control (QC)criteria to select the most suitable GK2A AMV data for assimilation are presented based on thesequality assessments. A new QC criterion utilizing height errors within the GEOS ADAS is introducedto exclude data with slow wind speed biases and large errors. GEOS forecast accuracy is slightlyimproved after assimilating GK2A AMVs along with other conventional, radiance, and satellitewinds which include AMVs made by the Himawari-8 satellite in nearly the same observational areaof GK2A. Additionally, the present work shows that GEOS forecasts can be significantly improved,especially in the tropics and southern hemisphere after assimilating GK2A data in the absence ofHimawari-8 AMVs. This study demonstrates that GK2A AMV data is a valuable data source toenhance the robustness of GEOS ADAS.

Atmospheric Motion Vectors↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Land Surface Modeling on Hub-Height Wind Speed under Different Soil Conditions

We investigate the impact of three land surface models (LSMs) on hub-height wind speed under three different soil regimes (dry, wet, and frozen) to understand and improve the physics of wind energy forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A six-day representative period is selected for each soil condition. The simulated wind speed, surface energy budget and soil properties are compared with the observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). For the selected cases, our simulation results suggest that, the impact of LSMs on hub-height wind speed are sensitive to the soil states but not so much to the choice of LSM. The simulated hub-height wind speed is in much better agreement with the observations for the dry soil case than the wet and frozen soil cases. Over the dry soil, there is a strong physical connection between the land surface and hub-height wind speed through near-surface turbulent mixing. Over the wet soil, the simulated hub-height wind speed is less impacted by land surface due to weaker surface fluxes and more dominated by large-scale synoptic disturbances. Over the frozen soil, the land surface model seems to have limited impact on hub-height wind speed variability due to the decoupling of the land surface with the overlying atmosphere. Two main sources of modeling uncertainties are proposed. The first are the insufficient model physics representing the surface energy budget, especially the ground heat flux, and the second are the inaccurate initial soil states such as soil temperature and soil moisture.

Xia, Geng↗

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Implementation of an Orographic Drag Scheme Considering Orographic Anisotropy in All Flow Directions in the Earth System Model CAS‐ESM 2.0

Abstract A reasonable representation of orographic anisotropy in earth system models is vital for improving weather and climate modeling. In this study, we implement the orographic drag scheme, including 3‐D orographic anisotropy (3D‐AFD), into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM 2.0). Three groups of simulations named sensitivity run, medium‐range forecast, and seasonal forecast respectively are conducted using the updated CAS‐ESM model and validated against station observation and reanalysis data. These simulations are run using the three schemes—3D‐AFD scheme, the 3D orographic anisotropy scheme for the eight‐direction (3D‐8x), and the 2D isotropic scheme (2D)—to compare their performance in CAS‐ESM 2.0. Sensitivity runs show that the 3D‐AFD provide more continuous transition of calculated drag as function of wind direction than the 3D‐8x, while the drag calculated using the 2D scheme show no variation with change of wind direction. Enhanced drag in the medium range and seasonal forecast using the updated CAS‐ESM alleviates part of the winter wind speed bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the cold bias over TP and the Siberian polar region. It is shown that the 3D‐AFD scheme alleviates more bias than that of the 3D‐8x scheme (by wind speed reduction of 1 ∼ 2 m/s and temperature of 1 ∼ 2 K) especially in the seasonal forecast. The results suggest that reasonable representation of the orographic anisotropy is important in climate modeling.

Xie, Jinbo↗

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

Sahawneh, Saleem↗

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗

Jet stream velocity errors in general circulation models

The longitude and time dependence of excessive wind speed errors above subtropical jets in current GCM forecasts is studied for 14 five-day winter forecasts using the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM. Several distinct phenomena, which may be divided into four categories, are found to contribute to the excess winds. These categories are: (1) error growth above the jet near the Himalayas; (2) error growth above the jet initiated elsewhere followed by advection; (3) tropical moisture bursts appearing in equatorial regions and migrating northeastward to merge with and distort the jet; and (4) undulatory growth of waves in the meridional component of the jet stream velocity. The results of additional sensitivity studies of the Himalayan region error are also reported.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, is a meteorological dataset providing high-resolution time series, including interannual variability and model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point to indicate ranges of possible wind speeds. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: (1) Numerical simulations of wind speed and other meteorological variables covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, with high-resolution (5-minute [min], 2-kilometer [km]) data for 3 years (2018-2020): WTK-LED CONUS, WTK-LED Alaska. (2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratory covering North America, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km, hourly dataset covering 20 years (2001-2020): WTK-LED Climate. (3) Specific long-term, high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the U.S. coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset: NOW-23. The data for Hawaii include land-based data and are part of WTK-LED Hawaii. Because the accuracy of simulations from a mesoscale model, such as WRF, varies depending on the location and weather situation, and can reach up to several m/s for wind speed, we provide simulated wind speed uncertainty estimates to the community to be used in conjunction with the deterministic model simulations. This dataset was developed to satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have. Based on our validation results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED as shown in "WTK-LED Use Cases" resource below.

Array↗

SSMI Wind Speed Climatology of the Time of Monsoon Wind Offset in the Western Arabian Sea

Forecasting the time of onset of monsoon wind in the western Arabian Sea, which is believed to precede the onset of rainfall along the west coast of India, is an important unsolved problem. Prior to measurements of the surface wind field by satellite, there was an absence of suitable surface wind observations. NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) surface wind vectors revealed that the time of the 1997 onset of 12 m/s southwest monsoon wind speeds in the western Arabian Sea preceded the onset of monsoon rainfall in Goa, India, by 3 - 4 days. Wind speed and direction data were necessary to establish a dynamical mechanism between times of onset of 12 m/s wind speed off Somalia and rainfall in Goa. Except for NSCAT, no satellite scatterometer wind product recorded adequately sampled 2-day 1deg x 1deg averaged wind vectors, which are the required space and time scales, to examine the wind-rain relationship in other years. However, the greater-than-95% steadiness of summer monsoon winds allows an opportunity to use satellite measurements of surface wind speed. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) recorded surface wind speed with adequate sampling to produce a 1-day, 1deg x 1deg data product during 1988 - 1998. SSMI data had been uniformly processed throughout the period. Times of onset of 12 m/s wind speed off Somalia determined with the SSMI data set were 21 May 1988, 24 May 1989, 17 May 1990, 28 May 1991, 8 June 1992, 28 May 1993, 30 May 1994, 7 June 1995, 29 May 1996, 12 June 1997, and 15 May 1998. Uncertainty of the 1992 and 1996 times of onset were increased because of the absence of SSMI data on 6 and 7 June 1992 and on 30 May 1996. Correlations of timing of monsoon wind onset with El Nino will be described. Variability of the time difference between times of onset of 12 m/s wind speed and Goa rainfall will be discussed. At the time of submission of the abstract, the Goa rainfall data have not arrived from the India Meteorological Department.

Halpern, David↗

An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity and motion using Nimbus-5 ESMR measurements and non-satellite derived descriptors

An empirical analysis program, based on finding an optimal representation of the data was applied to 120 observations of 29 1973 and 1974 North Pacific tropical cyclones. Each observation consists of a field of Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer radiation measurements at 267 grid points covering and surrounding the tropical cyclone plus nine other non-satellite derived discriptors. Forecast algorithms to estimate storm intensity and motion at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after each observation were developed using an independent eigen screening analysis. These algorithms were based on best track data. Independent testing of these algorithms showed that the performance of most of these algorithms were better than persistence and the algorithms forecasting 24, 48, and 72 hour maximum wind speed were better than those made operationally by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for 1973 and 1974 that did not use best track data.

Hunter, H. E.↗

The String Stability of a Trajectory-Based Interval Management Algorithm in the Midterm Airspace

NASA's first Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) was created to facilitate the transition of mature ATM technologies from the laboratory to operational use. The technologies selected for demonstration are the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM), which provides precise time-based scheduling in the terminal airspace; Controller Managed Spacing (CMS), which provides terminal controllers with decision support tools enabling precise schedule conformance; and Interval Management (IM), which consists of flight deck automation that enables aircraft to achieve or maintain a precise spacing interval behind a target aircraft. As the percentage of IM equipped aircraft increases, controllers may provide IM clearances to sequences, or strings, of IM-equipped aircraft. It is important for these strings to maintain stable performance. This paper describes an analytic analysis of the string stability of the latest version of NASA's IM algorithm and a fast-time simulation designed to characterize the string performance of the IM algorithm. The analytic analysis showed that the spacing algorithm has stable poles, indicating that a spacing error perturbation will be reduced as a function of string position. The fast-time simulation investigated IM operations at two airports using constraints associated with the midterm airspace, including limited information of the target aircraft's intended speed profile and limited information of the wind forecast on the target aircraft's route. The results of the fast-time simulation demonstrated that the performance of the spacing algorithm is acceptable for strings of moderate length; however, there is some degradation in IM performance as a function of string position.

Swieringa, Kurt A.↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

This report describes work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in predicting peak winds at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron requested the AMU develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network , Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) surface observations, and CCAFS sounding s from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created mul tiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence , the temperature inversion depth and strength, wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗