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DOE OSTI2019

Rotating Detonation Combustion for Gas Turbines: Modeling and System Synthesis to Exceed 65% Efficiency Goal (Phase II)

As of May 2019, all RDE test hardware and test operations were completed for this program. Over 700 hot fire tests were conducted at 4 facilities with 7 RDE assemblies, with the data available for future analysis. In particular, measured static and dynamic pressure and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provided basis for pressure gain combustion (PGC) analysis of the Engineering Scale RDE. It was demonstrated via measurements and CFD that a carefully designed diffuser can recover some total pressure of the highly oscillatory RDE exhaust. In general, the isolator/injector is largest contributor of pressure losses; however a low loss design was demonstrated that improves significantly on previous natural-gas/air RDEs. Also, a tailored injector and mixing technique was demonstrated that allowed NG-air RDE operation with overall equivalence ratio of less than 0.6. CFD models by AR, the UofM and Purdue University were extensively used throughout the program to refine diffuser design for improved pressure recovery, to simulate injection and mixing, to estimate turbine interaction, to estimate combustor pressure gain anchored with test data and to provide input to other design and analytical tasks. CFD analyses were completed for many of the configurations tested at Purdue with the 13.4” RDE including the shark fin and low area ratio isolators. Results were compared favorably to available hot fire test particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements and wave speeds. The results of these CFD analyses suggest a modest pressure gain of 33% with a sufficiently low area ratio isolator. A thermodynamic power plant system model was set up which utilizes an RDE combustor. The performance of the RDE combustor module was scaled based on measurements from the Engineering Scale RDE tests with low loss injector and tailored fuel flow. This combined model indicates potential for significant plant efficiency improvement. The successful tailored fuel injection test result with lower than .6 equivalence ratio has implication that a power plant can use a RDE combustor configuration where all the air flows through the combustion zone thereby not requiring a bypass mixer. In this configuration, the results of the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant system indicate net efficiency of 66.4%.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

DOE OSTI2018

Can the Impact of Aerosols on Deep Convection be Isolated from Meteorological Effects in Atmospheric Observations?

Influence of pollution on dynamics of deep convection continues to be a controversial topic. Arguably, only carefully designed numerical simulations can clearly separate the impact of aerosols from the effects of meteorological factors that affect moist convection. This paper argues that such a separation is virtually impossible using observations because of the insufficient accuracy of atmospheric measurements and the fundamental nature of the interaction between deep convection and its environment. To support this conjecture, results from numerical simulations are presented that apply modeling methodology previously developed by the author. The simulations consider small modifications, difficult to detect in observations, of the initial sounding, surface fluxes, and large-scale forcing tendencies. All these represent variations of meteorological conditions that affect deep convective dynamics independently of aerosols. The setup follows the case of daytime convective development over land based on observations during the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (LBA) field project in Amazonia. The simulated observable macroscopic changes of convection, such as the surface precipitation and upper-tropospheric cloudiness, are similar to or larger than those resulting from changes of cloud condensation nuclei from pristine to polluted conditions studied previously using the same modeling case. Observations from Phase III of the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) are also used to support the argument concerning the impact of the large-scale forcing. The simulations suggest that the aerosol impacts on dynamics of deep convection cannot be isolated from meteorological effects, at least for the daytime development of unorganized deep convection considered in this study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Increasing the Number of Installed Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters in the USA Through Improved Technology and Utility Programs

Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) offer an efficient alternative to electric resistance water heaters, but they suffer from limited market penetration. This paper reviews the current state of HPWHs in the USA, focusing on technology developments and programs to increase adoption. What technological improvements are needed to make HPWHs a good fit in more homes? Additionally, what are the best ways of promoting HPWHs to consumers? Improved communication and controls will allow HPWHs to provide demand response and follow dynamic utility rates. To enable fuel-switching, HPWHs are being developed that only need a standard 120V outlet. Split HPWHs can alleviate the cooling and noise that limit the use of HPWHs in small homes, multifamily buildings, and cold climates. Additionally, new utility programs aim to train installers and provide incentives to distributors to increase the number of HPWHs installed. Some utilities offer novel incentive programs that have led to increased customer uptake. Those advances, coupled with improved controls for load shifting and new products such as split HPWHs and HPWHs that can run on 120V power, may finally move the market forward.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precision QCD, Hadronic Structure & Forward QCD, Heavy Ions: Report of Energy Frontier Topical Groups 5, 6, 7 submitted to Snowmass 2021

This report was prepared on behalf of three Energy Frontier Topical Groups of the Snowmass 2021 Community Planning Exercise. It summarizes the status and implications of studies of strong interactions in high-energy experiments and QCD theory. We emphasize the rich landscape and broad impact of these studies in the decade ahead. Hadronic interactions play a central role in the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider (LHC) physics program, and strong synergies exist between the (HL-)LHC and planned or proposed experiments at the U.S. Electron-Ion Collider, CERN forward physics experiments, high-intensity facilities, and future TeV-range lepton and hadron colliders. Prospects for precision determinations of the strong coupling and a variety of nonperturbative distribution and fragmentation functions are examined. We also review the potential of envisioned tests of new dynamical regimes of QCD in high-energy and high-density scattering processes with nucleon, ion, and photon initial states. The important role of the high-energy heavy-ion program in studies of nuclear structure and the nuclear medium, and its connections with QCD involving nucleons are summarized. We address ongoing and future theoretical advancements in multi-loop QCD computations, lattice QCD, jet substructure, and event generators. Cross-cutting connections between experimental measurements, theoretical predictions, large-scale data analysis, and high-performance computing are emphasized.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Problem of Package Guidance with Incomplete Information for a Linear Control System with a Delay

The control-package method is applied to solve the problem of constructing guaranteed positional guidance for a linear control dynamical system with a delay under incomplete information about the initial state. The problem is solved for the case when the initial state is contained in a compact functional set. A solvability criterion and a method for the construction of a guidance program package are proposed. The proposed procedure is applied to a particular linear control system of delayed differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pressurizer dynamic model and emulated programmable logic controllers for nuclear power plants cybersecurity investigations

This work demonstrates the functionality of the pressurizer using a fast-running three regions, non-equilibrium model and control programs of emulated PLCs. The state variables from an integrated model of primary loop in a representative PWR plant are communicated to the pressurizer’s emulated PLCs using a synchronized data transfer function. In turn, the PLCs communicate back instructions to the pressurizer model to adjust the pressure and water level to remain within preprogramed setpoints. Pressurizer model simultaneously solves the coupled mass and energy conservation equations in the saturated vapor and saturated and subcooled liquid regions using fixed step solver. Results demonstrate the response of the pressurizer model linked to an emulated pressure and water level PLCs in a simulated transient involving surge-in and surge-out events. The 50 ms response delay time for the emulated PLC insignificantly affects operation and predictions of the pressurizer model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2019

Parsl: Pervasive Parallel Programming in Python

High-level programming languages such as Python are increasingly used to provide intuitive interfaces to libraries written in lower-level languages and for assembling applications from various components. This migration towards orchestration rather than implementation, coupled with the growing need for parallel computing (e.g., due to big data and the end of Moore's law), necessitates rethinking how parallelism is expressed in programs. Here, we present Parsl, a parallel scripting library that augments Python with simple, scalable, and flexible constructs for encoding parallelism. These constructs allow Parsl to construct a dynamic dependency graph of components that it can then execute efficiently on one or many processors. Parsl is designed for scalability, with an extensible set of executors tailored to different use cases, such as low-latency, high-throughput, or extreme-scale execution. We show, via experiments on the Blue Waters supercomputer, that Parsl executors can allow Python scripts to execute components with as little as 5 ms of overhead, scale to more than 250000 workers across more than 8000 nodes, and process upward of 1200 tasks per second. Other Parsl features simplify the construction and execution of composite programs by supporting elastic provisioning and scaling of infrastructure, fault-tolerant execution, and integrated wide-area data management. We show that these capabilities satisfy the needs of many-task, interactive, online, and machine learning applications in fields such as biology, cosmology, and materials science.

parallel programming↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Zooplankton International Geospatial dataset: A global repository of spatiotemporal freshwater zooplankton community composition data from lakes and reservoirs to support ecological research

Zooplankton transfer substantial energy in aquatic food webs and are used as indicators of environmental change. Syntheses of zooplankton community dynamics globally require datasets that span a wide range of environmental gradients; however, these datasets are limited due to methodological differences across programs, taxonomic inconsistencies, and a lack of standardized metadata. To reconcile these challenges, we created the Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset, which includes original zooplankton, water physical and chemical variables, and lake morphometric data from 311 inland lakes and reservoirs. ZIG includes waterbodies ranging in size from 0.005 to 82,100 km2 and spanning broad latitudinal (−47.26 to 64.90) and longitudinal ranges (−165.04 to 176.53). Temporal coverage for individual waterbodies ranges between 1 and 60 yr with sampling frequency ranging from annually to weekly. With its extensive coverage and content, we consider ZIG to be a cornerstone for future investigations of global scale lake biodiversity change.

Figary, Stephanie [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY]↗

DOE OSTI2019

Water Resources Utilization and Protection in the Coal Mining Area of Northern China

This study investigates multiple types of water resources in the western mining area in China, their supply-demand balance by using the same dimension gray recurrence dynamic model GM (1, 1), and water content coefficients of mines to ease water supply-demand contradiction. A multi-objective programming model is proposed for optimal water resources allocation management. Optimal technical schemes for water resources allocation among different users are obtained. The optimization model improves upon the previous studies by using water demand and water supply forecast. Coordinated development for mining safety, mine water utilization, and remediation and control of water environment is achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Two-Stage Adaptive Restoration Decision Support System for a Self-Healing Power Grid

Power outages cost American industries and businesses billions of dollars and jeopardize the lives of hospital patients. The losses can be greatly reduced with a fast, reliable, and flexible self-healing tool. This paper is aimed to tackle the challenging task of developing an adaptive restoration decision support system (RDSS). The proposed RDSS determines restoration actions both in planning and real-time phases and adapts to constantly changing system conditions. The comprehensive formulation encompasses practical constraints including ac power flow, dynamic reserve, and load modeling. Here, the combinatorial problem is decomposed into a two-stage formulation solved by an integer L-shaped algorithm. The two stages are then executed online in the RDSS framework employing a sliding window method. The IEEE 39-bus system has been studied under normal and contingency conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed online RDSS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Integrating Topology Reconfiguration and Vehicle-to-Grid Technologies on Distribution System Operation

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) provide unique opportunities to cope with the uncertainties of distributed energy generation in distribution networks. But the effects are limited by both inherent radial topology and the behaviors of decentralized AEVs. As such, we investigate the potential benefits of dynamic distribution network reconfiguration (DDNR), taking into account AEVs' spatial-temporal availability and their charging demand. We propose a mixed integer programming model to optimally coordinate the charging/discharging of AEVs with DDNR, while satisfying AEVs' original travel plan. Numerical studies based on a test system overlaying the IEEE 33-node test feeder and Sioux Falls transportation network show that DDNR and AEV complement each other, which improves the operation of the distribution system. We also conduct sensitivity analyses on inputs including renewable fluctuation and AEVs penetration level.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change

Abstract Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux‐based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long‐term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long‐term monitoring programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Theoretical Investigation of Kinetic Processes in Small Radicals of Importance in Combustion

Our group studies inelastic and reactive collisions of small molecules, focusing on radicals important in combustion environments. The goal is the better understanding of kinetic processes that may be difficult to access experimentally. An essential component is the accurate determination and fitting of potential energy surfaces (PESs). After fitting the ab initio points to obtain global PESs, we treat the dynamics using time-independent (close-coupling) methods. Cross sections and rate constants for collisions of are determined with our Hibridon program suite . We have studied energy transfer (rotationally, vibrationally, and/or electronically inelastic) in small hydrocarbon radicals (CH 2 and CH 3 ) and the CN radical. We have made a comparison with experimental measurements of relevant rate constants for collisions of these radicals. Also, we have calculated accurate transport properties using state-of-the-art PESs and to investigate the sensitivity to these parameters in 1-dimensional flame simulations. Of particular interest are collision pairs involving the light H atom.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

IDEAS-Watersheds FY21 Annual Report for July 1, 2020-June 30, 2021

Watersheds play a critical role in our water supply infrastructure and require sustainable management in a changing environment. Sustainable management of watershed systems and their interaction with the built environment rely on understanding the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes that control watershed system dynamics and water availability and quality. The overarching objective of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Environmental System Science (ESS) program is to advance a robust, predictive understanding of how watersheds function and respond to perturbations as integrated hydrobiogeochemical systems. ESS supports a network of watershed testbeds within the United States where national laboratories and university partners work in interdisciplinary teams to advance watershed system science for energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revolutionizing Neuromorphic Computing for Science (Brochure on the 2024 ASCR Workshop on Neuromorphic Computing for Science)

The ASCR basic research needs for Neuromorphic Computing for Science workshop was held in September 2024. The workshop brochure and report aim to inform and draft a set of grand challenges for advancing the field of neuromorphic computing and developing proof of principle neuromorphic circuits applicable for High Performance Computer (HPC) acceleration for scientific discovery, and brainstorm ideas needed for a successful, robust, and world leading basic research program. The resulting priority research directions are: (1) Neuromorphic computing circuit primitives; (2) Connectivity, communication, and hardware integration; (3) Neuroscience-derived dynamics and algorithms; and (4) Ecosystem for scalable neuromorphic co-design. Breakthroughs in understanding, designing, and prototyping the circuitry and simulation capabilities for a truly neuromorphic computer are essential to enable progress in the field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗