Optical Turbulence Profile Modeling in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer: A Random Forest Regression Approach
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Dasgupta, Apratim↗
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Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models
Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Furthermore, our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Forestry applications project/timber resource. Sam Houston National forest inventory and development of a survey planning model
The Forestry Applications Project has been directed towards solving the problem of meeting informational needs of the resource managers utilizing remote sensing data sources including satellite data, conventional aerial photography, and direct measurement on the ground in such combinations as needed to best achieve these goals. It is recognized that sampling plays an important role in generating relevant information for managing large geographic populations. The central problem, therefore, is to define the kind and amount of sampling and the place of remote sensing data sources in that sampling system to do the best possible job of meeting the manager's informational needs.
Colwell, R. N.↗
A numerical study of the NOL large-scale test
The large-scale gap test was modeled numerically using the reactive hydrodynamics code 2DE with forest fire burn rates. The model gives good agreement between calculated and experimental critical gap values. The calibration of peak pressure in the gap versus gap length is obtained from these calculations, and is in good agreement with the published experiment curve. The two dimensional nature of the gap test is evident from the curvature of the shock wave in the gap and test sample, and from the observed distance of run to detonation in the test samples.
Bowan, A. L.↗
Seeing the forest beyond the trees: Correspondence
In a recent report (Mitchard etal. 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 935-946) a new map of forest biomass based on a geostatistical model of field data for the Amazon (and surrounding forests) was presented and contrasted with two earlier maps based on remote-sensing data Saatchi etal. (2011; RS1) and Baccini etal. (2012; RS2). Mitchard etal. concluded that both the earlier remote-sensing based maps were incorrect because they did not conform to Mitchard etal. interpretation of the field-based results. In making their case, yet, they misrepresented the fundamental nature of primary field and remote-sensing data and committed critical errors in their assumptions about the accuracy of research plots, the interpolation methodology and the statistical analysis. By ignoring the large uncertainty associated with ground estimates of biomass and the significant under-sampling and spatial bias of research plots, Mitchard etal. reported erroneous trends and artificial patterns of biomass over Amazonia. Due to these misrepresentations and methodological flaws, we find their critique of the satellite-derived maps to be invalid.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Recent Advances on INSAR Temporal Decorrelation: Theory and Observations Using UAVSAR
We review our recent advances in understanding the role of temporal decorrelation in SAR interferometry and polarimetric SAR interferometry. We developed a physical model of temporal decorrelation based on Gaussian-statistic motion that varies along the vertical direction in forest canopies. Temporal decorrelation depends on structural parameters such as forest height, is sensitive to polarization and affects coherence amplitude and phase. A model of temporal-volume decorrelation valid for arbitrary spatial baseline is discussed. We tested the inversion of this model to estimate forest height from model simulations supported by JPL/UAVSAR data and lidar LVIS data. We found a general good agreement between forest height estimated from radar data and forest height estimated from lidar data.
polarimetric SAR interferometry↗
Above-ground net primary productivity in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forest: Contributions of rainfall, forest age and soil
Identifying factors controlling forest productivity is critical to understanding forest-climate change feedbacks, modelling vegetation dynamics and carbon finance schemes. However, little research has focused on productivity in regenerating tropical forests which are expanding in their fraction of global area have an order of magnitude larger carbon uptake rates relative to older forest. Here We examined above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components (wood production and litterfall) over 10 years in forest plots that vary in successional age, soil characteristics and species composition using band dendrometers and litterfall traps in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forests in northwestern Costa Rica. We show that the components of ANPP are differentially driven by age and annual rainfall and that local soil variation is important. Total ANPP was explained by a combination of age, annual rainfall and soil variation. Wood production comprised 35% of ANPP on average across sites and years, and was explained by annual rainfall but not forest age. Conversely, litterfall increased with forest age and soil fertility yet was not affected by annual rainfall. In this region, edaphic variability is highly correlated with plant community composition. Thus, variation in ecosystem processes explained by soil may also be partially explained by species composition. These results suggest that future changes in annual rainfall can alter the secondary forest carbon sink, but this effect will be buffered by the litterfall flux which varies little among years. In determining the long-term strength of the secondary forest carbon sink, both rainfall and forest age will be critical variables to track. We also conclude that detailed understanding of local site variation in soils and plant community may be required to accurately predict the impact of changing rainfall on forest carbon uptake. Synthesis. We show that in seasonally dry tropical forest, annual rainfall has a positive relationship with the growth of above-ground woody tissues of trees and that droughts lead to significant reductions in above-ground productivity. These results provide evidence for climate change—carbon cycle feedbacks in the seasonal tropics and highlight the value of longitudinal data on forest regeneration.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
[Re] Drivers of evapotranspiration from boreal wildfires
Computational reproducibility is a difficult challenge across science. I attempted to use R 3.6.1 to reproduce linear model fits, done originally using v2.6.0 for a 2009 paper on the drivers of large-scale forest evapotranspiration after wildfire. Model outputs were largely identical, aside from minor formatting changes, except for one–out of 12 total– regression in which the median residual value changed very slightly (in the sixth decimal place). I suggest that this essentially successful reproducibility is due to the relative simplicity of the script, its use of only base R functions, and R’s historically conservative approach to breaking changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Tropical forests and global change: biogeochemical responses and opportunities for cross-site comparisons, an organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon, USA, August 2023
In this study, tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth, contain c. 30% of terrestrial C stocks, and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally, as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes. Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling
Atmospheric chemistry is a high-dimensionality, large-data problem and thus may be suited to machine-learning algorithms. We show here the potential of a random forest regression algorithm to replace the gas-phase chemistry solver in the GEOS-Chem chemistry model. In this proof-of-concept study, we used one month of model output to train random forest regression models to predict the concentrations of each long-lived chemical species after integration based upon the physical and chemical conditions before the chemical integration. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for very long-lived species and the absolute concentration for shorter lived species. The skill of the machine learning algorithm is further improved by using a family approach for NO and NO2 rather than treating them independently.By replacing the numerical integrator with the random forest algorithm and running this model for one month, we find that the model is able to reproduce many of the features of the reference chemistry simulation. Replacing the integration methodology with a machine learning algorithm has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of applications for such an approach, e.g. to generate boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts or chemical data assimilation systems, etc.
Keller, Christoph A.↗
Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes
About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from year to year during the period 2000-2002. This is the first study to use MODIS data to model all carbon pools (wood, leaf, root) dynamically in simulations of Amazon forest deforestation from clearing and burning of all kinds.
Potter, C.↗
Present and Future Changes in Land‐Atmosphere Coupling of Water and Energy Over Extratropical Forest Regions
Abstract Couplings between land and the near surface atmosphere are modulated by interactions between soil conditions, vegetation dynamics, turbulent fluxes, and atmospheric properties. How the land‐atmosphere coupling responds to warming and elevated CO 2 are important for understanding the land surface carbon, energy, and water cycles. In this work, we documented this coupled land‐atmosphere network based on observations and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations over extratropical forest ecosystems. We employed a transfer entropy approach and novel network metrics to reveal patterns and strength of the land‐atmosphere coupling under historical conditions and a future high emission scenario (SSP585). We found that, in observations, the present‐day extratropical forest coupling network has high network connectivity (72%–88% of the targeted processes are coupled). E3SM reasonably captured the extratropical forest coupling network (modeled network connectivity was 81%–96%) and predicted that the coupling strength would significantly increase by 28% (±3%) under warming and elevated CO 2 conditions. Furthermore, E3SM factorial coupled experiments suggested that warming enhanced soil nitrogen mineralization favoring plant nitrogen uptake and vegetation growth were responsible for the strengthening future land‐atmosphere coupling. This work provides new metrics to analyze and document complex couplings for coupled earth system processes and highlights the important roles soil nutrient availability and biogeochemistry have on land‐atmosphere coupling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes
Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.
Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗
Modelling the impact of quasar redshift errors on the full-shape analysis of correlations in the Lyman-α forest.
In preparation for the first cosmological measurements from the full shape of the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest from DESI, we must carefully model all relevant systematics that might bias our analysis. It was shown in Youles et al. (2022) that random quasar redshift errors produce a smoothing effect on the mean quasar continuum in the Lyα forest region. This, in turn, gives rise to spurious features in the Lyα autocorrelation and its cross-correlation with quasars. Using synthetic data sets based on the DESI survey, we confirm that the impact on BAO measurements is small, but that a bias is introduced to parameters which depend on the full shape of our correlations. We combine a model of this contamination in the cross-correlation (Youles et al. 2022) with a new model we introduce here for the auto-correlation. These are parametrised by 3 parameters, which, when included in a joint fit to both correlation functions, successfully eliminate any impact of redshift errors on our full-shape constraints. We also present a strategy for removing this contamination from real data, by removing ∼0.3% of correlating pairs.
cosmology↗
Trade-offs of forest management scenarios on forest carbon exchange and threatened and endangered species habitat
Management of forest lands under climate warming poses challenges to managers, some of which are difficult to predict. Examining the trade-offs associated with forest stewardship choices is essential to avoid consequences with loss of natural capital. We utilized LANDIS-II process model simulations for three forested sites located in disparate parts of the United States with the purpose of understanding the trade-offs imposed by management choices under climate warming and associated wildfire. There were only small trade-offs that emerged from the simulations, between habitat area for threatened and endangered species (TES), net ecosystem exchange for CO2 (NEE), and risk of wildfire. Stand management in the form of thinning and prescribed burning typically increased NEE while simultaneously increasing habitat for TES, while reducing the risk of wildfire. These benefits were also observed under a climate warming scenario; however, the benefits were greatly outweighed by the negative impacts f warming on both TES habitat and NEE. Balancing these ecosystem services via thinning and burning treatments is a strategic approach to mitigate risks of wildfire both currently and under a warming future climate.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
TARDIS. I. A Constrained Reconstruction Approach to Modeling the z ~ 2.5 Cosmic Web Probed by Lyα Forest Tomography
Recent Lyα forest tomography measurements of the intergalactic medium (IGM) have revealed a wealth of cosmic structures at high redshift (z ~ 2.5). In this work, we present the Tomographic Absorption Reconstruction and Density Inference Scheme (TARDIS), a new chronocosmographic analysis tool for understanding the formation and evolution of these observed structures. Here, we use maximum likelihood techniques with a fast nonlinear gravitational model to reconstruct the initial density field of the observed regions. We find that TARDIS allows accurate reconstruction of smaller-scale structures than standard Wiener-filtering techniques. Applying this technique to mock Lyα forest data sets that simulate ongoing and future surveys such as CLAMATO, Subaru PFS, or the ELTs, we are able to infer the underlying matter density field at observed redshift and classify the cosmic web structures. We find good agreement with the underlying truth in both the characteristic eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the pseudo-deformation tensor, with the eigenvalues inferred from 30 m class telescopes correlated at r = 0.95 relative to the truth. As an output of this method, we are able to further evolve the inferred structures to late time (z = 0) and also track the trajectories of coeval z = 2.5 galaxies to their z = 0 cosmic web environments.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗