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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗
DOE OSTI2026

Blueprint for DOE Quantum Supercomputing: Ensuring U.S. Leadership in the Quantum Decade

Quantum computing stands at the threshold of a transformative decade, where the field will evolve from small-scale demonstrations toward practical scientific computing at scale. This Blueprint identifies fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQCs) as a viable, scalable, and broadly applicable path to achieving “quantum scientific utility,” defined as solving scientifically valuable problems beyond the reach of conventional, classical computers. This capability is expected to show scientific demonstrations in the late 2020s and to mature in the early-to-mid 2030s. This Blueprint outlines a strategy to prepare the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for FTQCs and their integration into the U.S. national scientific computing infrastructure. Its purpose is to identify the steps, milestones, and research directions necessary for DOE to enable initial deployment of FTQCs in 2028 as a scientific tool for the nation and mature this capability into the 2030s. DOE has a long history of supporting quantum information science and technology, contributing significantly to research advancements, training a quantum-ready workforce, and providing access to early small-scale quantum hardware. Given recent demonstrations of logical operations on error-corrected logical qubits and the advancement of commercial hardware roadmaps, DOE should begin preparations for large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing deployment for DOE science missions. This Blueprint proposes that DOE focus on (1) deploying first-generation scientifically relevant quantum computers with at least 100 logical qubits and performing at least 10,000 to 100,000 hard logical operations in scientifically relevant calculations; (2) developing essential FTQC programming competencies, system software, and facility readiness; and (3) investing in cutting edge focused R&D that fosters breakthroughs in scientific applications, algorithms, and logical architectures needed to accelerate the advent of scientific utility. This effort will position DOE to transition to larger systems: production-scale quantum computers that comprise 1,000 to 10,000 logical qubits, perform 1 to 10 billion hard logical operations, and execute scientifically useful computations at scale. Achieving these goals will require DOE facilities to evolve with urgency to support scientific campaigns that integrate quantum and classical computing resources into efficient workflows, novel software and firmware environments for compiling and routing quantum programs on FTQC machines, and suitable infrastructure for quantum hardware. It will also require further development and optimization of scientific applications from the fields of materials science, quantum chemistry, and high-energy and nuclear physics. The Blueprint calls for transformative R&D and collective action to accelerate the advent of scientific quantum utility and bring it within reach by 2028.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Magneto-optical study of Nb thin films for superconducting qubits

Among the recognized sources of decoherence in superconducting qubits, the spatial inhomogeneity of the superconducting state and the possible presence of magnetic-flux vortices remain comparatively underexplored. Niobium is commonly used as a structural material in transmon qubits that host Josephson junctions, and excess dissipation anywhere in the transmon can become a bottleneck that limits overall quantum performance. The metal/substrate interfacial layer may simultaneously host pair-breaking loss channels (e.g., two-level systems, TLS) and control thermal transport, thereby affecting dissipation and temperature stability. Here, we use quantitative magneto-optical imaging of the magnetic-flux distribution to characterize the homogeneity of the superconducting state and the critical current density, $j_{c}$, in niobium films fabricated under different sputtering conditions. The imaging reveals distinct flux-penetration regimes, ranging from a nearly ideal Bean critical state to strongly nonuniform thermo-magnetic dendritic avalanches. By fitting the measured magnetic-induction profiles, we extract $j_{c}$ and correlate it with film physical properties and with measured qubit internal quality factors. Our results indicate that the Nb/Si interlayer can be a significant contributor to decoherence and should be considered an important factor that must be optimized.

Datta, Amlan [Ames Lab; Iowa State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-based domain adaptation for cavity fault prediction at Jefferson Laboratory

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are the core components of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab, providing high-power electron beams for nuclear physics experiments. The facility comprises 418 SRF cavities, and any fault in these cavities can lead to interruptions in the electron beam supply. Cavity faults are the leading cause of beam trips in CEBAF. Predicting and mitigating those faults before onset can help maintain normal operation. Existing models face challenges in distinguishing between normal and fault signals when changes occur in the underlying time-series data, from changes in control software, operational parameters, or the environment. This work proposes a deep learning domain adaptation model that leverages transfer learning to address fault prediction challenges by improving accuracy. The model is trained and fine-tuned using a dataset collected for faulty and normal operation using a data acquisition system in CEBAF. Our deep learning-based domain adaptation model achieves a prediction accuracy of 89.61% of the fault and normal signals. The developed model effectively predicts normal running signals compared to the baseline approach without domain adaptation. This capacity is essential for the fault prediction task in the CEBAF because of heavily imbalanced data containing vast amounts of normal signals. The model performs well for predicting faults several hundred milliseconds before the fault onset compared to other models where no adaptation is applied. Incorporating deep learning-based domain adaptation techniques will significantly improve the fault prediction performance.

Rahman, Md Monibor [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, V↗
DOE OSTI2022

Re-establishment of Sandia National Labs super-critical carbon dioxide testing autoclave capability for exposure of metal alloys and polymers (Level 4 Milestone Report)

The sCO 2 system located in 916/160A, Sandia National Laboratories, CA, was constructed in 2014, for testing of materials in the presence of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) at high pressures (up to 3500 psi) and temperatures (up to 650°C). The basic design of the system consists of a thermally insulated IN625 autoclave, a high-pressure supercritical CO 2 compressor, autoclave heaters, temperature controllers, gas manifold, and temperature and pressure diagnostics. This system was modified in 2016 (sCO 2 compressor was removed) to enable corrosion studies with metal alloys in gaseous CO 2 at lower pressure (up to 300 psi) at 500°C. The capability was not used much afterwards until 2020, when preliminary tests using this capability (again without the supercritical CO 2 compressor) involved the exposure of fatigue and tensile specimens of HN 230 and 800H alloys to CO 2 gas for 168 hours in gaseous CO 2 . Using this capability, we finished experiments with low pressure (450 psi/ 3 MPa), high temperature (650°C) exposure of fatigue and tensile specimens of HN 230 and 800H alloys to CO 2 gas for 168 hours. The data from these experiments will be compared to that gathered from experiments performed in 2020 using the tube furnace and presented in a future report. It is to be noted that the tube furnace experiments ran 500-1500 hours, unlike the 168 hours of exposure in the recent experiment. This can help validate the use of the sCO 2 autoclave for both CO 2 and sCO 2 experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for: Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events

This dataset contains data and code associated with the paper Patel et al. "Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events".The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic system characterized by strong physical, chemical, and biological gradients. In particular, shifting soil redox conditions and consumption of terminal electron acceptors, due in part to dynamic hydrologic conditions, is a strong driver of carbon availability and transformations across TAIs. However, while redox dynamics are well described, our ability to quantitatively forecast rates of oxic to anoxic shifts in soils with different characteristics and inundation regimes is limited. We integrated field measurements, laboratory incubations, and model simulations to improve mechanistic understanding of oxygen consumption dynamics in coastal soils. Continuous in situ monitoring unexpectedly revealed that flooding caused temporary spikes in subsurface dissolved oxygen followed by rapid consumption in the wetlands. To further investigate these mechanisms in a controlled setting, we performed laboratory incubations using surface and subsurface soils from a TAI gradient (defined here as upland forest to transitional forest to wetland) in Western Lake Erie to measure oxygen consumption rates in TAI soils during flood events. In our experiments, wetland soils reached anoxia the fastest, in ∼ 9 h on average, whereas upland soils turned anoxic in ∼ 18 h. Subsurface upland soils did not turn anoxic even after two weeks of saturation in the lab, and their oxygen consumption patterns suggested carbon and/or nutrient limitation. These results are consistent with in-situ groundwater redox and oxygen measurements in the field, where wetland soils exhibited the highest rates of oxygen consumption along the TAI. Model simulations of oxygen consumption suggested that oxygen consumption had stronger abiotic controls in wetland soils but stronger biotic controls in upland soils, providing a useful framework for future incubation experiments. Microbial activity is a strong driver of oxygen consumption in TAI soils, although it is constrained by the availability of dissolved carbon in subsurface soils.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-time_to_anoxia (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10815374).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dirac Magnon in Honeycomb Lattice Magnet NiTiO 3

We performed inelastic neutron scattering experiments on single-crystal samples of the honeycomb lattice magnet, ilmenite NiTiO 3 . Below the Néel temperature of 22 K, spin wave excitations with a band energy of 3.7 meV were observed. Further, the neutron energy spectra were well-reproduced by modeling the system as a ferromagnetic honeycomb lattice with antiferromagnetic interlayer coupling, using linear spin wave theory. Similar to another ilmenite CoTiO 3 , a crossing structure was observed at the K point, suggesting the presence of Dirac magnons in NiTiO 3 . Further calculations suggested the formation of Dirac nodal line.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure-dependent clustering-to-declustering solute segregation transitions near disconnections

Grain-boundary disconnections, characterized by a step and a dislocation, are pervasive interfacial line defects that play a critical role in governing the properties and performance of nanocrystalline alloys. Although segregation of alloying elements is frequently observed at GB disconnections, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, particularly at elevated temperatures and non-dilute conditions. In this study, we employ atomistic simulations to study the segregation behavior of Ag at various faulted disconnections in Cu as a model material system. Our results demonstrate a pronounced size and compactness effect on the segregation behavior: more compact faulted disconnection structures promote the formation of Ag segregation clusters due to a highly localized tensile field, whereas more spread faulted disconnection structures (i.e., with wider partial dislocation spacing) exhibit much weaker clustering tendencies. Furthermore, with increasing temperature, Ag clustering in small disconnections initially intensifies and then disappears, indicating a thermally driven transition from clustering to declustering segregation behavior.

Disconnections↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating biofuel contaminant concentration from 4D ERT with mixing models

Here, we present the results of a lab-scaled feasibility study to assess the performance of electrical resistivity tomography for detection, characterization, and monitoring of fuel grade ethanol releases to the subsurface. Further, we attempt to determine the concentration distribution of the ethanol from the electrical resistivity tomography data using mixing-models. Ethanol is a renewable fuel source as well as an oxygenate fuel additive currently used to replace the known carcinogen methyl tert-butyl ether; however, ethanol is preferentially biodegraded and a cosolvent. When introduced to areas previously impacted by nonethanol-based fuels, it will facilitate the persistence of carcinogenic fuel compounds like benzene and ethylbenzene, as well as remobilize them to the ground water. These compounds would otherwise be retained in the soil column undergoing active or passive remediation processes such as soil vapor extraction or natural attenuation. Here, we introduce ethanol to a saturated Ottawa sand in a tank instrumented for four-dimensional geoelectrical measurements. Forward model results suggest pure phase ethanol released into a water saturated silica sand should present a detectable target for electrical resistivity tomography relative to a saturated silica sand only. We observe the introduction of ethanol to the closed hydraulic system and subsequent migration over the duration of the experiment. One-dimensional and three–dimensional temporal data are assessed for the detection, characterization, and monitoring of the ethanol release. Results suggest one-dimensional geoelectrical measurements may be useful for monitoring a release, while three-dimensional geoelectrical field imaging would be useful to characterize, monitor, and design effective remediation approaches for an ethanol release, assuming field conditions do not preclude the application of geoelectrical methods. We then attempt to use predictive mixing models to calculate the distribution of ethanol concentration within the measurement domain. For this study we examine four different models: a nested parallel mixing model, a nested cubic mixing model, the complex refractive index model (CRIM), and the Lichtenecker-Rother (L-R) model. The L-R model, modified to include an electrical formation factor geometry term, provided the best agreement with expected EtOH concentrations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the gap between pure and mixed-gas performance of thin film composite membranes through improved cell design and testing methods

Testing thin film composite (TFC) membrane coupons at low stage-cuts (≤5%) in a sweep-gas permeation system is a common practice to obtain mixed-gas separation properties for benchmarking performance and making scale-up decisions. However, even under these idealized conditions, mixed-gas permeance and selectivity can be more than 30% lower than their pure-gas values, partially due to concentration polarization, an effect that typically intensifies with increased membrane permeance. This study investigates the effect of cell design on mixed-gas testing using PolyActive TM TFC membranes with pure-gas CO 2 permeance of 1700 – 3100 gas permeance unit (GPU), covering the permeance range of most state-of-the-art CO 2 /N 2 separation membranes. Here, we designed and 3D-printed a counter-current permeation cell with enhanced feed and sweep flow efficiency, resulting in a 33 – 41% increase in mixed-gas CO 2 permeance compared to traditional permeation cells. Furthermore, we compared sweep-gas and vacuum permeation methods using traditional permeation cells, revealing that the latter delivers 41% higher mixed-gas CO 2 permeance, because vacuuming effectively minimizes the downstream concentration polarization. These findings highlight the importance of cell design and permeation apparatus selection in lab-scale mixed-gas testing, with strong implications for module design and process optimization at the industrial scale.

mixed gas performance↗
DOE OSTI2024

Final Technical Report

The Department of Energy is interested in technologies that support the sustainable production of fuels, chemicals, and other bioproducts from plant biomass, to offset the nation’s reliance on fossil resources. The plant cell wall of energy crops provides the largest reservoir of raw materials for bioproducts. However, the widespread use of plant cell walls is hampered by their complexity and resistance to breakdown. To improve the productivity and cost-effectiveness of using energy crops to generate bioproducts, the fundamental problem of deconstructing plant cell walls must be addressed. This project developed and evaluated an innovative genetic modification technology to produce strategically designed enzymes that specifically accumulate in the plant cell wall. The resulting enzyme-engineered energy crops are expected to grow normally under natural conditions but break down more quickly and easily under high temperature during the production of biobased products. As such, this plant cell wall targeting enzyme engineering effort will reduce the cost of plant cell wall deconstruction and ultimately improve the economics of bioproducts. The overall objective of this project is to develop and evaluate the in-planta enzyme engineering technology to reduce lignocellulose deconstruction cost. The concept was first validated using tobacco plant, a model plant system that is typically used in lab testing for initial concept validation. Then the enzyme optimization was validated using switchgrass, the energy crop to be used to produce bioproducts. There are three specific objectives in this Phase I project: (1) validate the enzyme optimization concept using tobacco plant, a model plant system. (2) validate the enzyme optimization concept using switchgrass. (3) techno-economic analysis (TEA) for further scale-up application. By the end of this project, in-planta enzyme engineering was validated in both tobacco and switchgrass plants, with improved enzyme activity and saccharification efficiency. The in-planta enzyme engineering in Tabacco didn’t have a significant impact on plant growth and development. Transgenic tobacco plants with in-planta cellulose degrading enzymes showed higher biomass digestibility than wild type. Gene construction and transformation in switchgrass was much longer than expected, which delayed the research progress. Besides, in-planta engineering of lignin degrading enzyme is more challenging than cellulose degrading enzyme, in terms of expression detection. Expression of lignin degrading enzyme and cellulose degrading enzyme improved biomass yield and saccharification efficiency of switchgrass, respectively. It is promising to express both genes in switchgrass for optimized overall performance. According to the results of TEA, switchgrass biomass production cost is mainly attributed to by fertility and harvesting. Biomass production profit can increase up to 10-fold depending on biomass price. The PHA production profit is also sensitive to the biomass price. The proposed technology could potentially reduce the biomass deconstruction cost from 33% to 9% of PHA revenue, making the biomass-based PHA competitive to petroleum-based polymers even in case of relatively high biomass price of biomass. Therefore, cultivation of the genetically engineered self-deconstruction switchgrass for Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production could benefit switchgrass grower and PHA producer with attractive profits for both sectors. This new enzyme optimization approach will be beneficial for bioindustries that use energy crops as feedstocks. It will improve the economic viability of converting energy crops to renewable products that support a sustainable society and helps address the Nation’s long-term strategic needs for renewable products and reduction of reliance on fossil resources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrochemical Mitigation of Corrosion in Molten Chloride Salts During CSP Plant Operation

We are designing an electrochemical flow-cell for removal of corrosive impurities from molten chloride salt Gen3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants during plant operation. Corrosive impurities will inevitably form in molten chloride salts upon exposure to air and moisture. We previously showed that even small amounts of these impurities, especially MgOHCl, will be detrimental in Gen3 CSP plants, necessitating prohibitively expensive containment alloys and frequent replacement of corroded components. Pre-purification of salt with Mg metal at temperatures above 650 degrees C is the current method for removing corrosive impurities from chloride salts before they are introduced to CSP systems. However, this is not a suitable method for impurity removal during plant operation. First, this method will produce MgO particulates which will damage plant components. Second, Mg metal is solid at the low temperature point (500 degrees C), so the purification will not proceed at a fast rate. At the high temperature point, Mg is soluble. In this case, fast purification may proceed, but dissolved metal is likely to precipitate out in cold-temperature point components, causing damage. In contrast, our electrochemically driven method allows fast Mg-based purification to proceed at the low temperature point, without formation of harmful particulates and without the risk of Mg metal precipitation. This novel approach is inspired by electrorefining techniques that are widely employed in industrial metallurgy for removal of impurities from metals. Impurities in the incoming molten salt will be reduced to inert MgO at the cathode, which can be removed by periodically washing the cell with acid. Simultaneously, Mg dissolution at the anode will ensure salt composition is maintained, with no net removal of Mg2+. We have validated this electrochemical approach at lab scale under static conditions with batch rectors. Furthermore, we have performed analytical modeling and technoeconomic analysis to produce a preliminary engineering design for the purification flow cell.

CSP↗
DOE OSTI2018

Methods to Measure, Predict and Relate Friction, Wear and Fuel Economy

High-fidelity measurements of the coefficient of friction and the parasitic friction power of the power cylinder components have been made for the Isuzu 5.2L 4H on-highway engine. In particular, measurements of the asperity friction coefficient were made with test coupons using Argonne National Lab’s (ANL) reciprocating test rig for the ring-on-liner and skirt-on-liner component pairs. These measurements correlated well with independent measurements made by Electro-Mechanical Associates (EMA). In addition, surface roughness measurements of the Isuzu components were made using white light interferometer (WLI). The asperity friction and surface characterization are key inputs to advanced CAE simulation tools such as RINGPAK and PISDYN which are used to predict the friction power and wear rates of power cylinder components. Finally, motored friction tests were successfully performed to quantify the friction mean effective pressure (FMEP) of the power cylinder components for various oils (High viscosity 15W40, low viscosity 5W20 with friction modifier (FM) and specially blended oil containing consisting of PAO/ZDDP/MoDTC) at 25, 50, and 110°C.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

FAIR Surrogate Benchmarks Supporting AI and Simulation Research (Final Report)

Computational Science is being revolutionized by integrating AI and simulation and, in particular, by deep learning surrogate models that can replace all or part of traditional large‐scale HPC computations. Such surrogates can achieve remarkable performance improvements, as much as several orders of magnitude, and save both compute time and energy. The Surrogate Benchmark Initiative (SBI) project creates a community repository and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data ecosystem for HPC application surrogate benchmarks. The SBI team comes from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Indiana University (IU), Rutgers University, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), and the University of Virginia (UVA). SBI repositories include data, code, and all relevant collateral artifacts that the science and engineering community need to use and reuse these data sets and surrogates. SBI repositories generate active research from both the participants in SBI and the broad community of AI and domain scientists. This project develops surrogates that use several different neural nets to learn and quickly infer the results of simulations and data systems and captures them as surrogate benchmarks with a rich set of metadata covering: Data; Model; Metrics specification; Machine specification; and Science, Speed, and Power Results. We research FAIR metadata for these benchmarks. We develop application surrogate examples as benchmarks across many fields (ANL, UTK, IU, UVA). We also study non-Surrogate benchmarks that have many common features and similar issues as regards FAIRness. We work with MLCommons (UVA, UTK), which is a major machine learning benchmarking activity where we get metadata ontologies, software, and benchmarks, Benchmarks have datasets, models, and metadata and they need a technical framework developed by UTK and Rutgers and deployed by UVA. We study features of Surrogates including performance, training set size, and uncertainty quantification (Rutgers, UVA and IU).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Energy-Efficient Computing with Computational Research to Accelerate Energy Technology

NREL's computational sciences center hosts the largest high performance computing (HPC) capabilities dedicated to energy research while functioning as a living laboratory for energy-efficient computing. NREL's HPC capabilities support the research needs of the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). In ten years of operation, HPC use in EERE-sponsored research has grown by a factor of 30, including work in electricity generation, energy efficiency, transportation, and energy system modeling. This paper analyzes this research portfolio, providing examples of individual use cases. The paper documents NREL's history of operating one of the world's most energy-efficient data centers while examining pathways to reduce economic and environmental impact beyond reduction of Power Usage Efficiency (PUE). This paper concludes by examining the unique opportunities created for accelerating improvements in data center efficiency created by combining an HPC system dedicated to energy research and a research program in energy-efficient computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Sensor Dilemma in Intelligent Transportation Systems: Evaluating Radar, Lidar and Camera: Preprint

Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are at the forefront in advancing the way we interact with and perceive the transportation network. This revolution is fueled by the significant advancement in sensor perception technologies such as radar, lidar, and video imaging, which are the most popular modalities for ITS. Real-time perception data from these sensors allow intelligent infrastructure-side decision-making to improve the energy, efficiency, and safety at traffic intersections. As traffic departments across the United States transition from traditional loop detectors and emulators and embrace newer technologies, they are often left with a dilemma in choosing a sensor technology for infrastructure-based perception that is reliable, inexpensive, and easy to set up and that has robust performance in varying weather conditions. However, choosing a sensor that checks all these boxes is not straightforward, as every sensor type has unique benefits and drawbacks. Radar is excellent at detecting long-range vehicles and weather resistance but lacks high resolution. Lidar is expensive and weather-sensitive, while cameras provide rich visual data at a low cost but are constrained by lighting and visibility. This study examines radar, lidar, and camera sensor capabilities to ascertain whether any of these qualifies as the "best" sensor for ITS perception. While no single sensor can meet all the demands of ITS, a hybrid approach combining multiple sensor modalities like radar, lidar, and cameras offers the most robust solution for enhancing the safety and efficiency of ITS. Through this evaluation, we hope to draw attention to the necessity of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's infrastructure perception and control framework, which presents a multisensor track data fusion engine to assimilate multiple data streams in order to provide robust and reliable perception.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Damage Potential of Electric Vehicles

The main objective is to assess the risk that electric vehicle (EV) battery fires pose regarding thermal damage to other vehicles involved in a crash and to compare EV and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) fires. A literature review of experimental data and statistics are used to perform the assessment. The findings indicate: (1) the heat flux emitted from an EV and ICEV fire are similar due to cabin materials being the main contributor to heat flux, (2) for ICEVs involved in a crash with fuel tank leakage, the thermal damage is significantly more than from an EV fire for equivalent fire durations, (3) the thermal damage potential from ICEV pool fires is at least 5 times higher than EV fires, and (4) EV and ICEV crashes resulting in a fire is about 0.002% and 0.2%, respectively. Thus, EV battery fires have a lower risk than ICEV fires.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Introduction to the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics Model

The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the market attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production and bring to market, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and market factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) markets. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗