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Risk Assessment Using the Three Dimensions of Probability (Likelihood), Severity, and Level of Control

Traditional hazard analysis techniques utilize a two-dimensional representation of the results determined by relative likelihood and severity of the residual risk. These matrices present a quick-look at the Likelihood (Y-axis) and Severity (X-axis) of the probable outcome of a hazardous event. A three-dimensional method, described herein, utilizes the traditional X and Y axes, while adding a new, third dimension, shown as the Z-axis, and referred to as the Level of Control. The elements of the Z-axis are modifications of the Hazard Elimination and Control steps (also known as the Hazard Reduction Precedence Sequence). These steps are: 1. Eliminate risk through design. 2. Substitute less risky materials for more hazardous materials. 3. Install safety devices. 4. Install caution and warning devices. 5. Develop administrative controls (to include special procedures and training.) 6. Provide protective clothing and equipment. When added to the two-dimensional models, the level of control adds a visual representation of the risk associated with the hazardous condition, creating a tall-pole for the least-well-controlled failure while establishing the relative likelihood and severity of all causes and effects for an identified hazard. Computer modeling of the analytical results, using spreadsheets and three-dimensional charting gives a visual confirmation of the relationship between causes and their controls.

Watson, Clifford C.↗

Comparison of interference-free numerical results with sample experimental data for the AEDC wall-interference model at transonic and subsonic flow conditions

Numerical results obtained from two computer programs recently developed with NASA support and now available for use by others are compared with some sample experimental data taken on a rectangular-wing configuration in the AEDC 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel at transonic and subsonic flow conditions. This data was used in an AEDC investigation as reference data to deduce the tunnel-wall interference effects for corresponding data taken in a smaller tunnel. The comparisons were originally intended to see how well a current state-of-the-art transonic flow calculation for a simple 3-D wing agreed with data which was felt by experimentalists to be relatively interference-free. As a result of the discrepancies between the experimental data and computational results at the quoted angle of attack, it was then deduced from an approximate stress analysis that the sting had deflected appreciably. Thus, the comparisons themselves are not so meaningful, since the calculations must be repeated at the proper angle of attack. Of more importance, however, is a demonstration of the utility of currently available computational tools in the analysis and correlation of transonic experimental data.

Newman, P. A.↗

Maternal body burden of cadmium and offspring size at birth

Increasing evidence suggests an inverse association between cadmium (Cd) and size at birth, potentially greatest among female neonates. We evaluated whether greater maternal body burden of Cd is associated with reduced neonatal anthropometry (birthweight, birth length, head circumference, and ponderal index) and assessed whether these associations differ by infant sex. The analytic sample for the present study (n=396) was derived from a subcohort of 750 women randomly drawn from among all participants (N=4344) in the Omega Study, a prospective pregnancy cohort. Creatinine-corrected Cd in maternal clean-catch spot urine samples (U-Cd) was quantified by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Continuous log{sub 2}-transformed Cd (log{sub 2}-Cd) and U-Cd tertiles (low<0.29 μg/g creatinine, middle 0.29–0.42 μg/g creatinine, high≥0.43 μg/g creatinine) were used in multivariable linear regression models. Females had reduced birth length with greater U-Cd tertile, whereas males birth length marginally increased [β(95% CI) females: low=reference, middle=−0.59 cm (−1.37, 0.19), high=−0.83 cm (−1.69, 0.02), p-trend=0.08; males: low=reference, middle=0.18 cm (−0.59, 0.95), high=0.78 cm (–0.04, 1.60), p-trend=0.07; p for interaction=0.03]. The log{sub 2}-Cd by infant sex interaction was statistically significant for ponderal index [p=0.003; β(95% CI): female=0.25 kg/m{sup 3} (−0.20, 0.70); male=−0.63 kg/m{sup 3} (−1.01, −0.24)] and birth length [p<0.001; β(95% CI): female=−0.47 cm (−0.74, −0.20), male=0.32 cm (0.00, 0.65)]. Our findings suggest potential sex-specific reversal of Cd’s associations on birth length and contribute to the evidence suggesting Cd impairs fetal growth. - Highlights: • Cadmium levels in the general population potentially adversely affect size at birth. • Maternal urinary cadmium was inversely related to birth length among female infants. • For male infants, maternal cadmium was positively associated with birth length. • Maternal cadmium was also inversely related to ponderal index among male infants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM)

Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification has also been made which allows heights to go below local terrain height and return realistic pressure, density, and temperature (not the surface values) as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local valley areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch version of Mars-GRAM are presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (MARS-GRAM)

Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification was also made which allows heights to go 'below' local terrain height and return 'realistic' pressure, density, and temperature, and not the surface values, as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local 'valley' areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch versions of Mars-GRAM are presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3 is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars- GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars- GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. Unrealistic energy absorption by uniform atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, a density factor value was determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 with MapYears 1 and 2 MGCM output at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented of the work underway to derive better multipliers by including possible variation with latitude and/or Ls. This is achieved by comparison of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 output with TES limb data. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths. Answers may also be provided to the issues raised in a recent study by Desai(2008). Desai has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing. Desai s reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon EDL. The solution of this problem would be important to the Mars Program since future exploration of Mars by landers and rovers will require more accurate landing capabilities, especially for the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Mars-GRAM: Increasing the Precision of Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM, when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3, is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars-GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. This has resulted in an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, density factor values were determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear 0 with TES observations for MapYears 1 and 2 at comparable dust loading. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Bioelectrical impedance analysis. What does it measure?

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) has been proposed for measuring fat-free mass, total body water, percent fat, body cell mass, intracellular water, and extracellular water: a veritable laboratory in a box. Although it is unlikely that BIA is quite this versatile, correlations have been demonstrated between BIA and all of these body compartments. At the same time, it is known that all of the compartments are correlated among themselves. Because of this, it is difficult to determine whether BIA is specific for any or all of these compartments. To investigate this question, we induced acute changes in total body water and its compartments over a 3-h period. Using this approach, we demonstrated that multifrequency BIA, using the Cole-Cole model to calculate the zero frequency and infinite frequency resistance, measures extracellular and intracellular water.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Comparison of Non-Combusting Spray Fields in a Model Combustor using Shadowgraphy

Droplet sizes were measured using shadowgraphy in the spray issuing from the center element of the baseline configuration of the NASA 7-element lean direct injector (LDI) array. Each LDI element consisted of a 60 degree clockwise axial air swirler, converging-diverging venturi, and a pressure-swirl atomizer positioned with its tip at the venturi throat. The non-combusting measurements were conducted using water spray in a 3-inch diameter research combustor operating at pressure of 5 bar and air inlet temperature of 700 K. At these inlet conditions, three air flow rates were used, producing reference velocities of 7.6, 15.2, and 22.9 m/s. Only the center nozzle was used. At each reference velocity, water flow rates were adjusted to simulate a common equivalence. Data were collected at a frame rate of 15 Hz over a range of positions near the LDI dump plane, and downstream, along the combustor centerline. Velocity measurements were achieved by use of a dual head Nd:YAG laser and frame transfer PIV camera. Droplet size and velocity, mass and number density, and volume fraction are compared at these inlet conditions to determine the effect of nozzle pressure drop on the measured properties.

lean direct injection↗

Comparison of Non-Combusting Spray Fields in a Model Combustor using Shadowgraphy

Droplet sizes were measured using shadowgraphy in the spray issuing from the center element of the baseline configuration of the NASA 7-element lean direct injector (LDI) array. Each LDI element consisted of a 60 degree clockwise axial air swirler, converging-diverging venturi, and a pressure-swirl atomizer positioned with its tip at the venturi throat. The non-combusting measurements were conducted using water spray in a 3-inch diameter research combustor operating at pressure of 5 bar and air inlet temperature of 700 K. At these inlet conditions, three air flow rates were used, producing reference velocities of 7.6, 15.2, and 22.9 m/s. Only the center nozzle was used. At each reference velocity, water flow rates were adjusted to simulate a common equivalence. Data were collected at a frame rate of 15 Hz over a range of positions near the LDI dump plane, and downstream, along the combustor centerline. Velocity measurements were achieved by use of a dual head Nd:YAG laser and frame transfer PIV camera. Droplet size and velocity, mass and number density, and volume fraction are compared at these inlet conditions to determine the effect of nozzle pressure drop on the measured properties.

lean direct injection↗

Magnetic Properties and Critical Current of Superconducting Nanocomposites (1 −x)YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub 7−δ} + xCuO

The aim of this paper was to study the effect of nanoscale inclusions of CuO as the second ingredient of composites on transport properties of superconducting YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub 7} polycrystals. The samples of YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub 7−δ} with different content of CuO nanoparticles were synthesized. The analysis of the magnetic properties was carried out within the extended critical state model. It was found that the addition of 0.5 and 1% of CuO nanoparticles leads to an increase in the intragranular density of the critical current at T= 4.2 K. A further increase of x from 2 to 15% and more than 40% decreases the critical current density. The critical current density higher than in the reference sample was also found in the samples with x= 20% and x= 24%.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Polymers for Extreme Conditions Designed Using Syntax-Directed Variational Autoencoders

We report the design/discovery of new materials is highly nontrivial owing to the near-infinite possibilities of material candidates and multiple required property/performance objectives. Thus, machine learning tools are now commonly employed to virtually screen material candidates with desired properties by learning a theoretical mapping from material-to-property space, referred to as the forward problem. However, this approach is inefficient and severely constrained by the candidates that the human imagination can conceive. Thus, in this work on polymers, we tackle the materials discovery challenge by solving the inverse problem: directly generating candidates that satisfy desired property/performance objectives. We utilize syntax-directed variational autoencoders (VAE) in tandem with Gaussian process regression (GPR) models to discover polymers expected to be robust under three extreme conditions: (1) high temperatures, (2) high electric field, and (3) high temperature and high electric field, useful for critical structural, electrical, and energy storage applications. This approach to learn from and augment) human ingenuity is general and can be extended to discover polymers with other targeted properties and performance measures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Soil Water Potentials (1990-2018) from a calibrated ELM-FATES, and rooting depth analyses scripts, PA-BCI, Panama

This dataset has ELM-FATES simulation outputs and scripts that accompany and reproduce the manuscript, Chitra-Tarak et al. (2021) Hydraulically-vulnerable trees survive on deep-water access during droughts in a tropical forest. New Phytologist. https: //doi.org/10.1111/nph.17464”. This dataset is organized into four parts: (1) source code for the model, Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model-Functionally Assembled Advanced Terrestrial simulator (ELM-FATES) (2) R scripts associated with ELM-FATES simulations: to prepare files for parameter ensemble simulation runs, calibrate the model with observed hydrological fluxes observed at BCI, re-run the model with tuned parameters and obtain long-term soil matric potentials by depth (3) ELM-FATES hydrological simulation outputs at PA-BCI, Panama (1990-2018, daily), and (4) R scripts for inverse rooting depth modeling and post-processing: prepare datasets and inversely model tree rooting depths at BCI, test hypotheses about the relationship of rooting depths with plant hydraulic traits and drought-induced mortality, and reproduce the manuscript itself. n.b. 1. Data needed to run R scripts in (2) and (4) and thus to reproduce the manuscript are sourced from various public datasets. Refer to the data availability section of the accompanying manuscript. 2. This dataset version (prepared on May 12, 2021) matches the revised and published version of the accompanying manuscript (published May 16, 2021) replacing a previous version. In the publication, this dataset is cited as follows: Chitra-Tarak R, Xu C, Aguilar S, Anderson-Teixeira K, Chambers J, Detto M, Faybishenko B, Fisher R, Knox R, Koven C et al. 2020. Soil water potentials (1990–2018) from a calibrated ELM-FATES, and rooting depth analyses scripts, PA-BCI, Panama. 2.0. NGEE Tropics Data Collection. doi: 10.15486/ngt/1696806

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SCALE Lattice Physics Code Assessments of Accident Tolerant Fuel

This report highlights accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) code assessment activities performed under Project NRCHQ- 60-17-T-0017, Lattice Physics Enhancements and Assessment. ATF covers a broad range of advanced fuel and clad designs for light water reactors (LWRs) to enhance performance under several accident conditions. Several ATF concepts are anticipated to be deployed as lead test rods (LTRs) or lead test assemblies (LTAs) within the next five years. The purpose of this work is to assess the predictive capabilities of NRC neutronics codes that underpin various licensing calculations. ATF designs use different fuel and clad materials compared to standard UO 2 fuel and zirconium-alloy claddings (hereafter UO 2 -Zry). These new materials and geometrical designs need to be assessed to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on quantities of interest (QOIs) in licensing calculations and the impact of modeling approximations which may be valid for UO 2 -Zry but not for ATF. This report outlines a systematic approach for ATF neutronics code assessment which includes sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of nuclear data, identification of experimental benchmark and gaps for code validation, investigation of modeling approximations, and code-to-code comparisons of calculated QOIs against high-fidelity reference continuous energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) calculations. This report focuses on the assessment of the SCALE/Polaris lattice physics code for reactor safety analysis. Polaris lattice physics calculations generate few group (FG) cross sections for PARCS full-core calculations. (Full-core analysis, spent fuel analysis, and severe accident analysis will be performed in future work.) The selected ATF concepts for this report include Cr 2 O 3 and Al 2 O 3 -Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, U 3 Si 2 fuel, FeCrAl cladding, SiC cladding, and Cr-coated cladding.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Best Practice for the Commercial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Geologic Storage: Adaptive Management Approach

The Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership is one of seven regional partnerships formed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSP) Initiative. The RCSP Initiative is focused on the safe and long-term storage of CO 2 to support the commercial deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). To that end, the PCOR Partnership has spent over 10 years developing, testing, and validating the best methods and technologies to conduct the geologic storage of CO 2 (hereafter referred to as CO 2 storage). Through this effort, the PCOR Partnership has formalized an adaptive management approach (AMA) for the commercial development of CO 2 storage projects. The use of this approach, which draws upon the collective experience and lessons learned from the PCOR Partnership, represents best practice for advancing CO 2 storage projects toward commercial deployment. At the heart of the AMA are four technical elements necessary for any successful CO 2 storage project: 1) site characterization; 2) modeling and simulation; 3) risk assessment; and 4) monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA). Each of these elements plays a key role in gathering and assessing site-specific data that provide a fundamental understanding of the storage complex and its performance. While each of the four technical elements can provide useful data independently, integrating them through the AMA yields a streamlined, fit-for-purpose strategy for the commercial deployment of CO 2 storage. Key to this integration and resulting best practice are feedback loops that allow the results of each element to serve as inputs to the others. Each iteration of the AMA creates an improved understanding of the storage complex and thus more targeted and efficient applications of the technical elements. For the purpose of establishing an adaptive management framework, hard lines have been drawn between the technical elements of the AMA. However, in practice, the rapid and seamless interaction between the elements can blur these lines. For example, to aid in the analysis and interpretation of site characterization data, a static geocellular model is often required. While this model development is part of the technical element, modeling and simulation, it is an integral part of the site characterization effort. Likewise, much of the monitoring data collected as part of the MVA technical element can be used to inform site characterization. This back-and-forth flow of data and use of models between the technical elements continues throughout the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

OECD/NEA MPCMIV Benchmark - Preliminary fuel performance results

The on-going OECD/NEA Multi-physics Pellet Cladding Mechanical Interaction Validation (MPCMIV) benchmark aims to provide guidance on multi-physics validation through the modelling of two cold ramps. In this paper, the first results for the base irradiation of the father rod and fuel rodlet (refabricated from the father rod), and the first cold ramp are presented. The base irradiation consists of 3 years of irradiation in the Forsmark-2 reactor. The cold ramp encompasses a steady-state pre-ramp period of less than one hour at a low constant linear heat rate (LHR) followed by a ramp test (< 1 min) with a much higher maximal LHR. The base irradiation is modelled using the fuel performance codes FRAPCON and FAST, while the cold ramp modeling is using the fuel performance code FRAPTRAN. Several missing parameters for FRAPCON/FAST base irradiation models have been selected using multiple references such as the OECD/NEA light water reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) benchmark specifications and the FRAPCON Integral Assessment report. The obtained results for the base irradiation such as the cladding outer diameter show reasonable agreement with the experimental measurements. The results for the cold ramp show larger differences with the experimental measurements (e.g., cladding axial elongation). However, such differences have been observed as well in other studies involving pellet cladding mechanical interaction analyses and are attributed to the fuel performance modelling assumptions and to the tuned modelling parameters that were not covered by the specifications. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis might allow a better quantification of these missing parameters. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

How correlations change the magnetic structure factor of the kagome Hubbard model

The kagome Hubbard model (KHM) is a paradigmatic example of a frustrated two-dimensional model. While its strongly correlated regime, described by a Heisenberg model, is of topical interest due to its enigmatic prospective spin-liquid ground state, the weakly and moderately correlated regimes remain largely unexplored. Motivated by the rapidly growing number of metallic kagome materials (e.g., Mn 3 Sn, Fe 3 Sn 2 , FeSn, Co 3 Sn 2 S 2 , Gd 3 Ru 4 Al 12 , and AV 3 Sb 5 with A = K, Rb, Cs), here we study the respective regimes of the KHM by means of three complementary numerical methods: the dynamical mean-field theory, the dynamical vertex approximation, and determinant quantum Monte Carlo. In contrast to the archetypal square lattice, we find no tendencies toward magnetic ordering, as magnetic correlations remain short-range. Nevertheless, the magnetic correlations undergo a remarkable crossover as the system approaches the metal-to-insulator transition. The Mott transition itself does not affect the magnetic correlations. Our equal-time and dynamical structure factors can be used as a reference for inelastic neutron scattering experiments on the growing family of metallic kagome materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗