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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

TURBOMOLE: Modular program suite for ab initio quantum-chemical and condensed-matter simulations

TURBOMOLE is a collaborative, multi-national software development project aiming to provide highly efficient and stable computational tools for quantum chemical simulations of molecules, clusters, periodic systems, and solutions. The TURBOMOLE software suite is optimized for widely available, inexpensive, and resource-efficient hardware such as multi-core workstations and small computer clusters. TURBOMOLE specializes in electronic structure methods with outstanding accuracy–cost ratio, such as density functional theory including local hybrids and the random phase approximation (RPA), GW-Bethe–Salpeter methods, second-order Møller–Plesset theory, and explicitly correlated coupled-cluster methods. TURBOMOLE is based on Gaussian basis sets and has been pivotal for the development of many fast and low-scaling algorithms in the past three decades, such as integral-direct methods, fast multipole methods, the resolution-of-the-identity approximation, imaginary frequency integration, Laplace transform, and pair natural orbital methods. This review focuses on recent additions to TURBOMOLE’s functionality, including excited-state methods, RPA and Green’s function methods, relativistic approaches, high-order molecular properties, solvation effects, and periodic systems. A variety of illustrative applications along with accuracy and timing data are discussed. Moreover, available interfaces to users as well as other software are summarized. TURBOMOLE’s current licensing, distribution, and support model are discussed, and an overview of TURBOMOLE’s development workflow is provided. Challenges such as communication and outreach, software infrastructure, and funding are highlighted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast ion relaxation in ITER mediated by Alfvén instabilities

Abstract We address the critical issue for future burning plasmas of whether high-energy fusion products or auxiliary heating-beam ions will be confined for a sufficiently long time to compensate for thermal plasma energy losses. This issue can be mitigated by one of the most deleterious collective phenomena—the instability of low, sub-cyclotron frequency Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs), such as toroidicity-induced AEs and reversed-shear AEs in the ITER steady-state scenario. Using a revised quasi-linear (QL) theory applied to energetic particle (EP) relaxation in the presence of AEs, we find that the AE instabilities can affect both neutral beam ions and alpha particles, although the resulting fast ion transport is expected to be modest if classical particle slowing down is assumed. On the other hand, the QL theory predicts that the AE amplitudes will be enhanced by the background microturbulence, although this topic remains outside our scope due to the significant numerical effort required to evaluate these effects. We report our results for EP relaxation dynamics obtained utilizing several tools: (i) a comprehensive linear stability study of the sub-cyclotron Alfvénic spectrum as computed by ideal magnetohydrodynamic NOVA simulations for the AE eigenproblem, (ii) drift kinetic NOVA-C calculations for wave–particle interaction and AE growth/damping rates, and (iii) predictive QL modeling coupled with the global transport code TRANSP to assess the EP relaxation on the equilibrium timescale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Core Mass Estimates in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters: A Comparison between Masses Obtained from Detailed Lens Models, Single-halo Lens Models, and Einstein Radii

The core mass of galaxy clusters is both an important anchor of the radial mass distribution profile and probe of structure formation. With thousands of strong lensing galaxy clusters being discovered by current and upcoming surveys, timely, efficient, and accurate core mass estimates are needed. Here, we assess the results of two efficient methods to estimate the core mass of strong lensing clusters: the mass enclosed by the Einstein radius (M(<θ E ) where θ E is approximated from arc positions; Remolina González et al. 2020), and single-halo lens model (M SHM ; Remolina González et al. 2021), against measurements from publicly available detailed lens models (M DLM ) of the same clusters. We use data from the Sloan Giant Arc Survey, the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey, the Hubble Frontier Fields, and the Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble. We find a scatter of 18.2% (8.2%) with a bias of -7.1% (1.0%) between M corr (<θ arcs ) (M SHM ) and M DLM . Last, we compare the statistical uncertainties measured in this work to those from simulations. This work demonstrates the successful application of these methods to observational data. As the effort to efficiently model the mass distribution of strong lensing galaxy clusters continues, we need fast, reliable methods to advance the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The FRB-searching Pipeline of the Tianlai Cylinder Pathfinder Array

This paper presents the design, calibration, and survey strategy of the Fast Radio Burst (FRB) digital backend and its real-time data processing pipeline employed in the Tianlai Cylinder Pathfinder Array. The array, consisting of three parallel cylindrical reflectors and equipped with 96 dual-polarization feeds, is a radio interferometer array designed for conducting drift scans of the northern celestial semi-sphere. The FRB digital backend enables the formation of 96 digital beams, effectively covering an area of approximately 40 square degrees with the 3 dB beam. Our pipeline demonstrates the capability to conduct an automatic search of FRBs, detecting at quasi-real-time and classifying FRB candidates automatically. The current FRB searching pipeline has an overall recall rate of 88%. During the commissioning phase, we successfully detected signals emitted by four well-known pulsars: PSR B0329+54, B2021+51, B0823+26, and B2020+28. We report the first discovery of an FRB by our array, designated as FRB 20220414A. We also investigate the optimal arrangement for the digitally formed beams to achieve maximum detection rate by numerical simulation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Requirements Description of DASSH-F

This report reviews the modeling and simulation capabilities of Argonne National Laboratory’s DASSH code that is used in present reactor analysis activities. These capabilities will be used to establish the set of verification tasks necessary to verify DASSH for use on commercial projects. A similar approach was taken for the PERSENT, REBUS and DIF3D software packages. The DASSH program is a thermal analysis code designed to rapidly allow a reactor design engineer to obtain flow rates requirements that satisfy peak temperature constraints in the domain. DASSH is a follow-on development to the SE2-ANL software and SUPERENERGY-2 software that it is based upon. DASSH was designed to account for both neutron and gamma heating and is inherently connected to the GAMSOR part of the ARC suite of fast reactor analysis software. SE2-ANL is a developed piece of software from the 1980s while DASSH is a modern implementation with notable improvements in geometry handling. The most important upgrade of DASSH relative to SE2-ANL is that it can analyze multiple time points in a single run where SE2-ANL can only treat a single time point. This allows the user to understand the impact of and search the flow distribution for the entire operational period of a reactor design considering pressure drop, peak coolant and fuel temperatures, and thermal striping. DASSH has three input paths that have to be verified. The first input path builds the geometry and power distribution based upon the DIF3D model but ignores the gamma heating aspects of the problem. The second input path also builds the geometry from the DIF3D model but it takes the neutron and gamma heating distributions from GAMSOR. The third input path is to take the geometry and power distribution directly from user input (i.e. not coupled to DIF3D or GAMSOR). DASSH also has many built in correlations for material properties along with a user defined specification of the fuel, structure, and coolant properties. There are correlations for flow split, mixing, pressure drop, and heat transfer coefficients (subchannel rather than a direct methodology). In total, verification of DASSH will require an extensive testing to cover all possible user features of the software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

GX: a GPU-native gyrokinetic turbulence code for tokamak and stellarator design

GX is a code designed to solve the nonlinear gyrokinetic system for low-frequency turbulence in magnetized plasmas, particularly tokamaks and stellarators. In GX, our primary motivation and target is a fast gyrokinetic solver that can be used for fusion reactor design and optimization along with wide-ranging physics exploration. Here, this has led to several code and algorithm design decisions, specifically chosen to prioritize time to solution. First, we have used a discretization algorithm that is pseudospectral in the entire phase space, including a Laguerre–Hermite pseudospectral formulation of velocity space, which allows for smooth interpolation between coarse gyrofluid-like resolutions and finer conventional gyrokinetic resolutions and efficient evaluation of a model collision operator. Additionally, we have built GX to natively target graphics processors (GPUs), which are among the fastest computational platforms available today. Finally, we have taken advantage of the reactor-relevant limit of small $\rho _*$ by using the radially local flux-tube approach. In this paper we present details about the gyrokinetic system and the numerical algorithms used in GX to solve the system. We then present several numerical benchmarks against established gyrokinetic codes in both tokamak and stellarator magnetic geometries to verify that GX correctly simulates gyrokinetic turbulence in the small $\rho _*$. Moreover, we show that the convergence properties of the Laguerre–Hermite spectral velocity formulation are quite favourable for nonlinear problems of interest. Coupled with GPU acceleration, which we also investigate with scaling studies, this enables GX to be able to produce useful turbulence simulations in minutes on one (or a few) GPUs and higher fidelity results in a few hours using several GPUs. GX is open-source software that is ready for fusion reactor design studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Proton Transfer Dynamics in the Aprotic Proton Accepting Solvent 1-Methylimidazole

The dynamics of proton transfer to the aprotic solvent 1-methylimidazole (MeIm, proton acceptor) from the photoacid 8-hydroxypyrene-1,3,6-trisulfonic acid trisodium salt (HPTS) were investigated using fast fluorescence measurements. The closely related molecule, 8- methoxypyrene-1,3,6-trisulfonic acid trisodium salt (MPTS), which is not a photoacid, was also studied for comparison. Following optical excitation, the wavelength-dependent population dynamics of HPTS in MeIm resulting from the deprotonation process were collected over the entire fluorescence emission window. Analysis of the time-dependent fluorescence spectra revealed four distinct fluorescence bands that appear and decay on different time scales. We label these four states as: protonated (P), associated I (A I ), associated II (A II ), and deprotonated (D). We find that the simple kinetic scheme of P → A I → A II → D is not consistent with the data. Instead, the kinetic scheme that describes the data has P decaying into A I , which mainly goes on to deprotonation (D), but AI can also feed into A II . A II can return to A I or decay to the ground state, but does not deprotonate within experimental error. Finally, quantum chemistry and excitedstate QM/MM Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulations indicate that A I and A II are two H-bonding conformations of MeIm to the HPTS hydroxyl, axial and equatorial, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials: Part II Resveratrol Exemplar

This SAND report summarizes work supported by an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled “Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials.” This SAND report is written in two parts with Part 1 discusses recrystallization of our explosive exemplar and Part 2 summarizing our work with recrystallization of resveratrol. We have studied resveratrol recrystallization with a multiscale approach combining experiments, modeling and simulation. At the single crystal scale, microscopy experiments illuminate crystal time-dependent growth rates using advanced image analysis. Bench scale experiments were carried out to look at growth of multiple particles in a small reactor creating thousands of particles and analyzing the results with microscopy and μCT. For the modeling we combine kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) models with subscale information from density functional theory (DFT) or molecular dynamics. This work is discussed in Part 1 and can also be found in a paper from the project discussing a coarse-grained kMC model specifically developed for resveratrol. For well-mixed systems, we have population balance equations (PBE) linked with species mass conservation forming a set of ordinary differential equations that can be solved quickly. For more complicated geometries, such as the vat crystallization used throughout the complex, a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD)/PBE method was developed to account for gradients in temperature and concentration and differences in crystallization rates throughout the domain. These simulations are more complex and require high performance computing. We present results for two cases: 5% seed fast cool with parameters fit to the well-mixed case and 5% seed slow cool using the same parameters. We show reasonable agreement with experiments though are particles are significantly larger than the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pilot-scale hydrotreating of catalytic fast pyrolysis biocrudes: process performance and product analysis

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a technology option for producing advanced biofuels from hydrocarbon-rich biocrude intermediates. The relatively high oxygen content of biocrudes compared to petroleum intermediates increases hydrogen consumption and the lower thermal stability accelerates catalyst deactivation and reactor fouling hindering the adaptation of hydrotreating technology for biocrude upgrading into biofuels. In this study, four chemically different biocrude feeds were upgraded in a pilot scale hydroprocessing unit at similar process conditions using a commercial hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) catalyst. The biocrude feeds and hydrotreated products were characterized using standard ASTM procedures and advanced analytical techniques (GCxGC-FID and GCxGC-MS). HDO catalyst activity was monitored by changes in physical properties and chemical composition of the upgraded products as a function of time on stream. Aliphatic acids, ketones, aldehydes, and furan derivatives were completely converted during the hydrotreating tests while the concentration of aromatics, aliphatic hydrocarbons and phenolics increased during the hydrotreating tests. The oxygen content, nitrogen content, specific gravity, viscosity and the heavy end of the boiling point range (determined by simulated distillation) of the upgraded products increased with increasing time on stream during hydrotreating. The deactivation rate was the lowest for the biocrude feed that contained the most aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons and was the highest for the biocrude feed that had the most anhydrosugars. Overall, the HDO deactivation rate correlates with the total amount of oxygen in the feed (17 wt% to 29 wt%, on a wet basis).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental evaluation of the vapor box divertor concept with an open vapor box module in Magnum-PSI

A promising approach to handle the intense plasma heat flux in the divertor region of a tokamak is the Vapor Box Divertor (VBD). Here plasma-lithium interaction creates a dense lithium vapor cloud which interacts with the incoming plasma, effectively shielding the tungsten surface beneath, therefore preventing overheating and sputtering of the tungsten and increasing the component’s lifetime. Two key steps must be addressed to validate this concept: investigating plasma-Li interactions and the transport mechanism of the latter in the presence of plasma. To explore this, a Vapor Box Module (VBM) has been designed for use with the linear plasma generator Magnum-PSI. The VBM consists of a series of three cylindrical boxes, with Li being evaporated at a controlled temperature in the central box (CB). Divertor-like plasma enters the VBM from an upstream aperture, interacts with the Li vapor cloud and exits through a downstream aperture ultimately impacting a target equipped with a calorimetry system. Optical diagnostics Thomson scattering, Filtered fast camera Imaging and optical emission spectroscopy provided information on plasma parameters in terms of electron density n e , temperature T e and plasma composition before and after this interaction. A significant reduction in plasma power was observed upon the establishment of lithium vaporization determined via cooling water calorimetry and embedded thermocouples at the downstream target. This resulted in a drop of the target temperature from ∼800 °C to ∼350 °C (57%) at the highest applied power (11.1 MW m −2 ) and CB temperature (∼700 °C). Lithium condensation at the side boxes of the VBM in combination with strong plasma momentum transfer effectively prevented upstream migration of lithium, while enhancing Li transport toward the target. The achievement of the two main goals of reducing plasma power and confining the Li in the VBM, are consistent with earlier published preliminary SOLPS-ITER simulations. This study shows that the presence of lithium in a VBD-like configuration can result in a strong reduction of power to the target surface, while at the same time the lithium vapor is effectively confined by the VBM, aided by the incoming plasma, preventing its escape from the VBM geometry. This represents a valuable step toward validating the feasibility of the VBD configuration in future fusion reactors.

Magnum-PSI↗
DOE OSTI2026

An approach for fast and accurate simulation of phase change material based thermal energy storage in buildings

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) has significant potential for mitigating peak electricity demand and enabling load shifting in buildings. Phase Change Material embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) can significantly improve energy demand management due to high storage capacity. However, PCM-HX evaluation typically depends on computationally expensive fully transient simulations, posing significant challenges for scalable system- and building-level energy assessments across different climates and system architectures. This paper presents a generalized, accurate, and computationally efficient methodology for simulating building energy systems integrated with LHTES. The PCM-HX transient performance is represented by performance maps generated using a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model (GRCM) that enables accurate predictions of arbitrary PCM-HXs at low computational cost. The feasibility of the proposed approach was verified using a case study considering a dual-mode heat pump-thermal energy storage (HP-TES) system simulated in Modelica with Spawn of EnergyPlus™ for a DOE prototype small office building in two locations: Tampa, FL, and International Falls, MN. The PCM-HX performance maps provided accurate predictions of PCM-HX transient behavior, with mean absolute percentage deviations within 2–4% compared to GRCM while also achieving at least 1800× reduction in computational time. Moreover, the HP-TES system achieved energy savings of up to 17.4% in Tampa, FL, and 62.2% in International Falls, MN, demonstrating the broader applicability of the proposed methodology across different climate zones. This work highlights the importance of robust PCM-HX models in enabling accurate and computationally efficient building-level simulations and enabling future research opportunities for investigating optimized HP-TES designs and advanced control strategies for grid-interactive buildings.

Modelica↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast explicit solutions for neutrino-electron scattering: Explicit asymptotic methods

Here, we present results of explicit asymptotic approximations applied to neutrino-electron scattering in a representative model of neutrino population evolution under conditions characteristic of core-collapse supernova explosions or binary neutron star mergers. It is shown that this approach provides stable solutions of these stiff systems of equations, with accuracy and time stepping comparable to that for standard implicit treatments such as backward Euler, fixed point iteration, and Anderson-accelerated fixed point iteration. Because each time step can be computed more rapidly with the explicit asymptotic approximation than with implicit methods, this suggests that algebraically stabilized explicit integration methods could be used to compute neutrino evolution coupled to hydrodynamics more efficiently in stellar explosions and mergers than the methods currently in use.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multifrequency Models of Black Hole Photon Rings from Low-luminosity Accretion Disks

Images of black holes encode both astrophysical and gravitational properties. Detecting highly lensed features in images can differentiate between these two effects. We present an accretion disk emission model coupled to the Adaptive Analytical Ray Tracing (AART) code that allows a fast parameter space exploration of black hole photon ring images produced from synchrotron emission from 10 to 670 GHz. As an application, we systematically study several disk models and compute their total flux density, average radii, and optical depth. The model parameters are chosen around fiducial values calibrated to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and observations of M87*. For the parameter space studied, we characterize the transition between optically thin and thick regimes and the frequency at which the first photon ring is observable. Our results highlight the need for careful definitions of photon ring radius in the image domain, as in certain models the highly lensed photon ring is dimmer than the direct emission at certain angles. We find that at low frequencies the ring radii are set by the electron temperature, while at higher frequencies the magnetic field strength plays a more significant role, demonstrating how multifrequency analysis can also be used to infer plasma parameters. Lastly, we show how our implementation can qualitatively reproduce multifrequency black hole images from GRMHD simulations when adding time variability to our disk model through Gaussian random fields. This approach provides a new method for simulating observations from the Event Horizon Telescope and the proposed Black Hole Explorer space mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI-Accelerated Design of Targeted Covalent Inhibitors for SARS-CoV-2

Direct-acting antivirals for the treatment of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus are needed to complement vaccination efforts. Given the ongoing emergence of new variants, automated experimentation, and active learning based fast workflows for antiviral lead discovery remain critical to our ability to address the pandemic’s evolution in a timely manner. While several such pipelines have been introduced to discover candidates with noncovalent interactions with the main protease (M pro ), here we developed a closed-loop artificial intelligence pipeline to design electrophilic warhead-based covalent candidates. Here, this work introduces a deep learning-assisted automated computational workflow to introduce linkers and an electrophilic “warhead” to design covalent candidates and incorporates cutting-edge experimental techniques for validation. Using this process, promising candidates in the library were screened, and several potential hits were identified and tested experimentally using native mass spectrometry and fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based screening assays. We identified four chloroacetamide-based covalent inhibitors of M pro with micromolar affinities (K I of 5.27 μM) using our pipeline. Experimentally resolved binding modes for each compound were determined using room-temperature X-ray crystallography, which is consistent with the predicted poses. The induced conformational changes based on molecular dynamics simulations further suggest that the dynamics may be an important factor to further improve selectivity, thereby effectively lowering KI and reducing toxicity. These results demonstrate the utility of our modular and data-driven approach for potent and selective covalent inhibitor discovery and provide a platform to apply it to other emerging targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF SUBMICROPULSE ELECTRON-BEAM EFFECTS FROM SHORT-RANGE WAKEFIELDS IN TESLA-TYPE SUPERCONDUCTING RF CAVITIES

Experiments were performed at The Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) facility to elucidate the effects of short-range wakefields (SRWs) in TESLA-type rf cavities. FAST has a unique configuration of a photocathode rf gun beam injecting two TESLA-type single cavities (CC1 and CC2) in series prior to the cryomodule. To investigate short-range wakefield effects, we have steered the beam to minimize the signals in the higher-order mode (HOM) detectors of CC1 and CC2 for a baseline, and then used a vertical corrector between the two cavities to steer the beam off axis at an angle into CC2. A Hamamatsu synchroscan streak camera viewing a downstream OTR screen provided an image of y-t effects within the micropulses with ~10-micron spatial resolution and 2-ps temporal resolution. At 500 pC/b, 50 b, and 4 mrad off-axis steering into CC2, we observed an ~ 100-micron head-tail centroid shift in the streak camera image y(t)-profiles. This centroid shift value is 5 times l arger than the observed HOM-driven centroid oscillation within the macropulse, and it is consistent with a calculated short-range wakefield effect using ASTRA simulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of Distributed Memory Computing in MOSAIC to Enable Large 3D Simulations of Irradiated Concrete

The concrete biological shield (CBS) of light-water reactors protects workers and the surrounding environment by absorbing neutron and gamma irradiation emitted from the reactor core. The radiation dose increases with the CBS’s operational time and, in the long term, becomes significant enough to raise the question of irradiation effects on concrete—and particularly on the structural integrity of the CBS. Irradiation-induced damage has been identified as one of the main degradation mechanisms in the CBS. Neutron radiation causes the swelling of aggregate-forming minerals at different rates and amplitudes depending on the mineral’s nature. Silicate-bearing minerals such as quartz are particularly sensitive to neutron radiation and experience up to 17.8% volumetric expansion. Aggregates comprise several minerals with different orientations and are, therefore, subject to cracking as a result of mismatch strains. Additionally, the swelling of aggregates creates significant stresses in the surrounding cement paste matrix, which also results in crack formation. In parallel with the collection of characterization and irradiation test data, development of modeling and simulation tools for irradiated concrete is ongoing with the support of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This effort resulted in the development and application of the fast-Fourier transform (FFT)–based code Microstructure-Oriented Scientific Analysis of Irradiated Concrete (MOSAIC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A novel conditional formulation of the Vlasov–Ampère equations: a conservative, positivity, asymptotic and Gauss law preserving scheme

We propose a novel reformulation of the Vlasov–Ampère equations for plasmas that reveals discrete symmetries that enables simultaneous conservation of mass, momentum and energy; preservation of Gauss’s law; positivity of the distribution function; and consistency with quasi-neutral asymptotics. The approach employs variable and coordinate transformations to yield a coupled system comprising a modified Vlasov equation and associated moment–field equations. The modified Vlasov equation advances a conditional distribution function that excludes mass, momentum and energy densities, which are instead evolved through moment equations enforcing the relevant symmetries, conservation laws and involution constraints. This reformulation aligns naturally with a recent slow-manifold reduction technique, which separates fast electron time scales and simplifies the treatment of the quasi-neutral limit within the reduced moment–field subsystem. Using this framework, we develop a numerical method for the reduced 1D1V subsystem that, for the first time in the literature, satisfies all key physical constraints while maintaining a quasi-neutral asymptotic behaviour. The advantages of the method are demonstrated on canonical electrostatic test problems, including the multiscale ion acoustic shock wave.

1D1V↗