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DOE OSTI2026

Few is different: deciphering many-body dynamics in mesoscopic quantum gases

Emergent macroscopic descriptions of matter, such as hydrodynamics, are central to our description of complex physical systems across a wide spectrum of energy scales. The conventional understanding of these many-body phenomena has recently been shaken by a number of experimental findings. Collective behavior of matter has been observed in mesoscopic systems, such as high-energy hadron–hadron collisions, or ultracold gases with only a few strongly interacting fermions. In such systems, the separation of scales between macroscopic and microscopic dynamics (at the heart of any effective theory) is inapplicable. To address the conceptual challenges that arise from these observations and explore the universality of emergent descriptions of matter, the EMMI Rapid Reaction Task Force was assembled. This document summarizes the RRTF discussions on recent theoretical and experimental advances in this rapidly developing field. Leveraging technological breakthroughs in the control of quantum systems, we can now quantitatively explore what it means for a system to exhibit behavior beyond the sum of its individual parts. In particular, the report highlights how the (in)applicability of hydrodynamics and other effective theories can be probed across three principal frontiers: the size frontier, the equilibrium frontier, and the interaction frontier.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optical Vibrational Spectroscopic Investigation of Natural and Synthetic Analogs of Uranyl Oxyhydroxyhydrate Minerals

Uranyl oxy-hydroxy-hydrate minerals are common alteration products of uraninite (UO2+x) which is chemically and structurally analogous to uranium dioxide nuclear fuel. Therefore, structural and spectroscopic investigations of these alteration minerals and their analogous anthropogenic counterparts can provide insight into the environmental behavior of nuclear fuel cycle materials. Previously, we compiled available vibrational spectroscopic data for uranyl minerals in the Compendium of Uranium Raman and Infrared Experimental Spectra (CURIES) and found that only 37% of known uranyl oxy-hydroxy-hydrate minerals had spectra readily available in the literature and existing databases for inclusion therein. Furthermore, no available infrared spectra for this mineral group were included in CURIES. To expand our understanding of the spectroscopic features of uranyl oxy-hydroxy-hydrates and the structural origins thereof, we collected, and now include in CURIES, Raman and infrared spectra for an additional 12 uranyl hydroxide phases. To better understand the impact of structural and compositional variations of these phases on their spectroscopic features, we compare Raman spectra of different anion sheet topological groups and of analogous phases hosting different counter cations. We identify spectroscopic variations related to differences in equatorial bonding and structural changes as a result of cation substitution. We also prepare a uranyl hydroxide phase via hydrolysis of uranyl fluoride (UO2F2) as an analog of hydrolysis reactions that occur in nuclear fuel cycle materials; and we find that the alteration product of UO2F2, despite chemical and structural similarities to uranyl oxy-hydroxy-hydrate minerals, is readily distinguishable from related mineral phases using Raman spectroscopy. In this work, we provide new insights into the structural origins of spectroscopic features in uranyl oxy-hydroxy-hydrate minerals, improve the average Raman spectrum for this group of minerals, and thereby improve capabilities for identifying these mineral species and related anthropogenic phases using Raman spectroscopy.

Barth, Brodie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000256142601)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating Sodium Ordering for Enhanced Solid Solution Behavior in Layered NaNiO 2 Cathodes

The O-type layered nickel oxides suffer from undesired cooperative Jahn–Teller distortion stemming from Ni 3+ ions and undergo multiple biphasic structural transformations during the insertion/extraction of large Na + ions, posing a significant challenge to stabilize the structural integrity. We present here a systematic investigation of the impact of substituting 5 % divalent (Mg 2+ ) or trivalent (Al 3+ or Co 3+ ) ions for Ni 3+ to alleviate Na + ion ordering and perturb the Jahn–Teller effect to enhance structural stability. Here, we gauge a fundamental understanding of the Mg−O and Na−O or Mg−O−Na bonding interactions, noting that the ionicity of the Mg−O bond deshields the electronic cloud of oxygen from Na + ions. Furthermore, calculations of the Van Vleck distortion modes reveal a relaxation of NiO 6 octahedra from Jahn–Teller distortion and a reduced electron density at the interlayer with Mg 2+ substitution. Long-range (operando X-ray diffraction) and short-range (magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance) structural analyses provide insights into reduced ordering, allowing a stable continuous solid solution. Overall, Mg-substitution results in a high-capacity retention of ~96 % even after 100 cycles, showcasing the potential of this strategy for overcoming the structural instabilities and enhancing the performance of sodium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced Preparation for Intelligent Cybermanufacturing Systems (EPICS)

Opportunities exist for realizing transformative advances in productivity and reductions in energy footprint through ubiquitous sensing in manufacturing environments. Enhanced Preparation for Intelligent Cybermanufacturing Systems (EPICS) is a 21-month (4 academic semesters, plus one summer) experience for graduate students that focuses on scaling the knowledge, understanding and leadership skills in the cyber manufacturing area. Masters students (8/year, 32 total) complete 2-year projects on industrially-driven project topics, rotating to internships in summer semester to work on scoping and implementation at project partners. Students complete academic training in embedded systems, process modeling, data science, and cloud-based systems design. Their projects are targeted toward sensor retrofit, process monitoring, root cause analysis, and sensor fusion.

Advanced Manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ion Transport and Crystal Rotation in Plastic Crystal Electrolytes Under Applied Electric Fields

Organic ionic plastic crystal electrolytes, containing a plastic crystal and lithium salt, offer a potential balance between mechanical and electrochemical properties for solid state lithium-ion battery electrolytes. These electrolytes contain multiple mobile ionic species (three or four), resulting in complex transport mechanisms which have not yet been established. Plastic crystals are defined by long-range positional order and short-range rotational disorder. It is therefore necessary to quantify changes in the local crystal structure of the electrolyte as current flows through it. Herein, we examine the electrochemical properties of pyrrolidinium-based plastic crystal electrolytes containing lithium salt and zwitterion additives, including measurements of current fraction and limiting current. We obtain species-specific insight into electrolyte transport using pulsed-field gradient nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and find that, while the zwitterion additive increases ionic conductivity, it decreases lithium diffusivity with respect to other ionic components. With operando spatiotemporally resolved wide-angle X-ray scattering we observe location-specific crystal rotations due to the passage of ionic current. In conclusion, we posit that reducing energy dissipation due to rotation is essential for using plastic crystal electrolytes in practical applications.

Yap, Kyra M. K. [University of California, Berkele↗

DOE OSTI2026

Block-Type Antiferromagnetism in Single Chain Quasi-One-Dimensional K 3 ⁢Fe 2 ⁢Se 4

One-dimensional (1D) structures provide a unique platform to study the correlated quantum interactions and phase transitions such as unconventional magnetism and superconducting states. Here, we report that iron chalcogenide K 3 ⁢Fe 2 ⁢Se 4 exhibits an unusual block-type canted antiferromagnetic (AFM) order with a clear single chain quasi-1D structure, which is structurally different from the two-leg ladder BaFe 2 ⁢Se 3 , through both experimental measurements and density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) calculations. The narrow bandgap semiconductor K 3 ⁢Fe 2 ⁢Se 4 has a quasi-1D edge-shared FeSe4 tetrahedra chain structure and orders antiferromagnetically below 110 K. The magnetic moments couple antiferromagnetically along the quasi-1D chain direction of the 𝑏 axis and form an up-down-down-up (↑−↓−↓−↑)–like spin structure with a commensurate propagation vector 𝒌=⁢(0,0,0), where block-type spin ↑−↑ or ↓−↓ coupling are between the longer Fe-Fe bonds of the quasi-1D chain. DMRG results show that block antiferromagnetic state is stable in K 3 ⁢Fe 2 ⁢Se 4 and reveal that the block-ordered arrangement of Fe 2.5+ ions spins arise from the competition between ferromagnetic and AFM interaction in the presence of strong electronic correlation. Our research results not only report the discovery of a clear block-type canted antiferromagnetic structure in a real quasi-1D chain material but also provide a theoretical approach to understand the block-type antiferromagnetism in quasi-1D iron chalcogenides.

antiferromagnetism↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Bricks to Clicks: Mapping the White Space in Building Innovation

It is a critical national imperative to transform the buildings sector, yet innovation is impeded by deployment failures that leave promising technologies stranded. Conventional market reports and techno-economic analysis provide an insufficient understanding of markets and resource allocation for emerging building technologies. They omit crucial commercialization factors such as ecosystem maturity and adoption friction, where the coordinated participation of a network of suppliers, contractors, financiers, regulators, and integrators is required to scale solutions. This study addresses these gaps by introducing an evaluation framework grounded in front-line data from six years of the DOE's IMPEL incubator, comprising experience from 300 building-sector innovators and the adjacent, complex ecosystem. Our methodology synthesizes top-down market analysis with bottom-up, practitioner-level data across five megatrends: (M1) Affordable materials and industrialized construction; (M2) Healthy and efficient mechanical systems; (M3) Intelligent building operations; (M4) Buildings as grid assets; and (M5) High-density power and cooling for data centers and therein identify twelve "white space" technology opportunities. Next, we develop a multi-criteria scoring rubric to rank these opportunities based on parameters, i.e., Affordability, Quality of Life, Reliability, and Security, yielding composite ‘Demand’ and ‘Maturity’ indices. Our results indicate that the most significant white spaces may not be incremental products but a new class of ‘Ecosystem Enablers’, such as logistics platforms, orchestration layers, and automated compliance software that solve structural deployment gaps. This paper summarizes this transparent, evidence-based, practitioner-informed evaluation framework for policymakers and investors to re-evaluate policy and resource allocation and unlock scalable market transformation.

Singh, Reshma↗

DOE OSTI2024

RG-CAT: Detection pipeline and catalogue of radio galaxies in the EMU pilot survey

Abstract We present source detection and catalogue construction pipelines to build the first catalogue of radio galaxies from the 270$\rm deg^2$pilot survey of the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU-PS) conducted with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. The detection pipeline uses Gal-DINO computer vision networks (Gupta et al. 2024, PASA, 41, e001) to predict the categories of radio morphology and bounding boxes for radio sources, as well as their potential infrared host positions. The Gal-DINO network is trained and evaluated on approximately 5 000 visually inspected radio galaxies and their infrared hosts, encompassing both compact and extended radio morphologies. We find that the Intersection over Union (IoU) for the predicted and ground-truth bounding boxes is larger than 0.5 for 99% of the radio sources, and 98% of predicted host positions are within$3^{\prime \prime}$of the ground-truth infrared host in the evaluation set. The catalogue construction pipeline uses the predictions of the trained network on the radio and infrared image cutouts based on the catalogue of radio components identified using theSelavysource finder algorithm. Confidence scores of the predictions are then used to prioritiseSelavycomponents with higher scores and incorporate them first into the catalogue. This results in identifications for a total of 211 625 radio sources, with 201 211 classified as compact and unresolved. The remaining 10 414 are categorised as extended radio morphologies, including 582 FR-I, 5 602 FR-II, 1 494 FR-x (uncertain whether FR-I or FR-II), 2 375 R (single-peak resolved) radio galaxies, and 361 with peculiar and other rare morphologies. Each source in the catalogue includes a confidence score. We cross-match the radio sources in the catalogue with the infrared and optical catalogues, finding infrared cross-matches for 73% and photometric redshifts for 36% of the radio galaxies. The EMU-PS catalogue and the detection pipelines presented here will be used towards constructing catalogues for the main EMU survey covering the full southern sky.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Systems Engineering and Analysis in Support of a US Federal Staging Facility for UNF

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition is examining a set of system options and conducting supporting analyses to inform the development of an integrated waste management system, which may include one or more federal staging facilities (FSFs) for used nuclear fuel (UNF ) sited using a collaborative siting process. This paper focuses on the ongoing activities in two systems engineering and analysis work areas: (1) data and tools development, validation, and maintenance and (2) systems engineering execution. Within the first work area, the STANDARDS 5.0 UNF data and analysis tool, formerly known as UNF-ST&DARDS, is being developed as a foundational resource to assist in the management of UNF data. It has the key capability to model UNF throughout the entire back end of the fuel cycle. STANDARDS also includes several compatible analysis tools for the time-dependent characterization of UNF and related systems by interfacing with the SCALE code system for nuclear analysis and COBRA-SFS for thermal analysis. Also, within the data and tools area is the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), which is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling the waste management system, including the transportation of UNF to and from a FSF. NGSAM has been developed to enable informed decision-making by providing the capability to analyze various potential system options for the management of UNF and high-level radioactive waste. Finally, in the systems engineering execution area, the team has begun to apply a disciplined systems engineering approach at the system level along with supporting analysis to guide the development of the FSF project requirements (including associated transportation infrastructure). Systems engineering principles and practices and their adaptation/application to design and development activities will ensure that the waste management system is effectively implemented as work proceeds. Other activities include investigating the implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters related to waste management systems, such as UNF acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, and different assumed facility operation start dates. Keywords: federal staging facility (FSF), used nuclear fuel (UNF), integrated waste management (IWM) system, Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), STANDARDS, systems engineering

Joseph, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2026

Defect-induced displacement of topological surface state in quantum magnet MnBi2Te4

The topological magnet MnBi2⁢Te4 (MBT), with gapped topological surface state, is an attractive platform for realizing quantum anomalous Hall and axion insulator states. However, the experimentally observed surface state gaps fail to meet theoretical predictions, although the exact mechanism behind the gap suppression has been debated. Recent theoretical studies suggest that intrinsic antisite defects push the topological surface state away from the MBT surface, closing its gap and making it less accessible to scanning probe experiments. Here, we report on the local effect of defects on the MBT surface states and demonstrate that high defect concentrations lead to a displacement of the surface states well into the MBT crystal, validating the theorized mechanism. The local and global influence of antisite defects on the topological surface states are studied with samples of varying defect densities by combining scanning tunneling microscopy, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and density functional theory. Our findings identify a combination of increased defect density and reduced defect spacing as the primary factors underlying the displacement of the surface states and suppression of surface gap, guiding further development of topological quantum materials.

Lupke, Felix [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Galaxy Size and Rotation Curve Diversity in ΛCDM with Baryons

The observed rotation curves of dwarf galaxies exhibit significant diversity at fixed halo mass, challenging galaxy formation within the cold dark matter (CDM) model. Previous cosmological galaxy formation simulations with baryonic physics fail to reproduce the full diversity of rotation curves, suggesting that there is a flaw in baryonic feedback models, observational bias, or that an alternative to CDM must be invoked. In this work, we use the Marvelous Massive Dwarf zoom-in simulations, a suite of high-resolution dwarf simulations with M 200 ∼ 10 10 –10 11 M ⊙ and M * ∼ 10 7 –10 9 M ⊙ , designed to target the mass range where the galaxy rotation curve diversity is maximized, i.e., between and 100 km s −1 . We add to this a set of low-mass galaxies from the Marvel Dwarf Zoom Volumes to extend the galaxy mass range to lower values. Our fiducial star formation and feedback models produce simulated dwarfs with a broader range of rotation curve shapes, similar to observations. These simulations both create dark matter cores via baryonic feedback, reproducing the slower-rising rotation curves, while also allowing for compact galaxies and steeply rising rotation curves. Our simulated dwarfs also reproduce the observed size–M * relation, including scatter, producing both extended and compact dwarfs for the first time in simulated field dwarfs. However, the slowly rising and high baryon mass fraction, as well as the steeply rising and low baryon mass fraction, remain missing. We explore star formation and feedback models and conclude that previous simulations may have had feedback that was too strong to produce compact dwarfs.

Cruz, Akaxia [Flatiron Institute, New York, NY (Un↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Flow in a Microreactor Core: From High-Fidelity CFD to Subchannel Analysis

The accurate prediction of pressure drop in tightly packed, low–Reynolds number (Re) bare rod bundles is essential for the thermal-hydraulic design of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) reactor and other microreactor concepts. However, existing friction factor correlations, particularly the upgraded Cheng-Todreas (UCTD) correlation, have limited validation for the small pitch-to-diameter ratios (P/Ds) and transitional flow conditions characteristic of these systems. In this work, we perform high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LESs) of both an infinite bare rod bundle and a finite bare 37-pin scalloped rod bundle across the range 1000≤ 𝑅𝑒 ≤5500. The simulations reveal strong gap vortex–driven transitional behavior and indicate that the UCTD may underpredict the friction factor by up to 28% at 𝑃/𝐷 = 1.05. Using the LES-calculated pressure drops, we formulate a new friction factor correlation that follows the Cheng-Todreas functional form but is calibrated for low-Re and tightly packed geometries representative of a MARVEL-like reactor. The correlation is implemented in the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) subchannel module and compared against both the LES and UCTD predictions. Across all subchannel types, the proposed model reduces the streamwise velocity differences from as high as 44% (UCTD) to below 9%, and decreases the pressure gradient differences from 13% to 25% (UCTD) to 0.7% to 7% relative to the LES results. These results suggest that the new correlation has the potential to improve the pressure drop and flow field predictions for such geometries, highlighting the importance of high-fidelity simulations in supporting microreactor thermal-hydraulic model development and motivating future pressure drop experiments for compact rod bundles to further validate these findings.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ultrafast Raman probe of the photoinduced superconducting to normal state transition in the cuprate Bi 2 ⁢Sr 2 ⁢CaCu 2 ⁢O 8+𝛿

Here, we report an ultrafast Time-Resolved Raman scattering study of the out-of-equilibrium photoinduced dynamics across the superconducting to normal state phase transition of the cuprate Bi 2 ⁢Sr 2⁢ CaCu 2 ⁢O 8+𝛿 . Using the polarization-resolved momentum space selectivity of Raman scattering, we track the superconducting condensate destruction and recovery dynamics with subpicoseconds time resolution in the antinodal region of the Fermi surface where the superconducting gap is maximum. Leveraging ultrafast Raman thermometry, we find a significant dichotomy between the superconducting condensate and the quasiparticle temperature dynamics near the antinodes, which cannot be framed in terms of a single effective electron temperature. The present work demonstrates the ability of Time-Resolved Raman scattering to selectively probe out-of-equilibrium pathways of different electronic subdegrees of freedom during a photoinduced phase transition.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Biaxial Anisotropy and Switchable Néel Vectors in LaFeO 3 Epitaxial Films

Antiferromagnets with highly stable but switchable Néel vectors are desired for antiferromagnetic spintronics with ultrafast speed and terahertz frequencies. Electrical switching of antiferromagnetic insulators has been demonstrated using binary antiferromagnets, while large families of complex antiferromagnets such as perovskites are largely unexplored. Here, we show that epitaxial LaFeO 3 thin films on SrTiO 3 (001) exhibit clear, robust biaxial anisotropy with a spin-flop field of a few tesla. Angular-dependent spin-Hall magnetoresistance (SMR) characterizations of Pt/LaFeO 3 bilayers with the current channel along SrTiO 3 [100] and [110] reveal distinct, intriguing shapes and field dependence. Simulations using a macrospin model accurately describe the main behavior and fine features of the SMR data from which key antiferromagnetic parameters are extracted. Furthermore, remanent SMR measurement confirms the high fidelity of the Néel vector along either easy axis of the biaxial anisotropy, indicating that epitaxial films of LaFeO 3 and potentially other perovskite antiferromagnets offer an attractive platform for antiferromagnetic spintronics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Glancing Angle Deposition in Gas Sensing: Bridging Morphological Innovations and Sensor Performances

Glancing Angle Deposition (GLAD) has emerged as a versatile and powerful nanofabrication technique for developing next-generation gas sensors by enabling precise control over nanostructure geometry, porosity, and material composition. Through dynamic substrate tilting and rotation, GLAD facilitates the fabrication of highly porous, anisotropic nanostructures, such as aligned, tilted, zigzag, helical, and multilayered nanorods, with tunable surface area and diffusion pathways optimized for gas detection. This review provides a comprehensive synthesis of recent advances in GLAD-based gas sensor design, focusing on how structural engineering and material integration converge to enhance sensor performance. Key materials strategies include the construction of heterojunctions and core–shell architectures, controlled doping, and nanoparticle decoration using noble metals or metal oxides to amplify charge transfer, catalytic activity, and redox responsiveness. GLAD-fabricated nanostructures have been effectively deployed across multiple gas sensing modalities, including resistive, capacitive, piezoelectric, and optical platforms, where their high aspect ratios, tailored porosity, and defect-rich surfaces facilitate enhanced gas adsorption kinetics and efficient signal transduction. These devices exhibit high sensitivity and selectivity toward a range of analytes, including NO2, CO, H2S, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with detection limits often reaching the parts-per-billion level. Emerging innovations, such as photo-assisted sensing and integration with artificial intelligence for data analysis and pattern recognition, further extend the capabilities of GLAD-based systems for multifunctional, real-time, and adaptive sensing. Finally, current challenges and future research directions are discussed, emphasizing the promise of GLAD as a scalable platform for next-generation gas sensing technologies.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three-dimensional nucleation and growth of deformation twins in magnesium

At two-thirds the weight of aluminum, magnesium alloys have the potential to reduce the fuel consumption of transportation vehicles. These advancements depend on our ability to optimize the desirable versus undesirable effects of deformation twins, which are three-dimensional (3D) microstructural domains that form under mechanical stresses. Previously only characterized through surface or thin-film measurements, we here present 3D in situ characterization of deformation twinning inside an embedded grain over mesoscopic fields of view using dark-field x-ray microscopy supported by crystal plasticity finite element analysis. The results revealed the role of triple junctions on twin nucleation and the sequence and irregularity of twin growth and showed that twin-grain junctions, twin-twin junctions, and twin boundaries were the sites of localized dislocation accumulation.

Lee, Sangwon [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (Un↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗