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Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2022

Four decades ago, construction was just beginning on experimental turbines at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Today, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) facility is the centerpiece of the laboratory's Flatirons Campus, a world-class hub for renewable energy research. The nation's shift to 100% clean electricity by 2035 will require a mix of renewable energy sources and strategies - and together, wind and solar energy could account for 60% to 80% of that clean energy resource. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, NREL scientists, engineers, and analysts contributed to these visionary goals through their wind energy research. As wind innovations push into new areas, NREL continues to play a vital role in advancing technology and addressing deployment barriers in pursuit of more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. FY 2022 wind research and development explored the potential for dramatic growth in land-based systems, the launch of the nation's first commercial-scale offshore installations, and transmission infrastructure buildout. Land-based wind energy is one of the most cost-effective electricity supply options - but utility-scale deployment will require up to 10 times the current number of turbines. An NREL plan addressed this need to accelerate U.S. wind technology rollout at distributed and utility scales. Another project conducted by NREL and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) helps position the nation's first major offshore wind corridor for success. The WETO-funded Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study is evaluating options for balancing electricity supply and demand, while supporting resilience of the grid and marine industries. WETO, NREL, and other partners are working to enable the enormous supply chain and workforce changes the U.S. wind energy industry will need to meet net-zero-carbon-emissions targets. As part of a seminal series of DOE-funded supply chain studies, NREL analysts reported on the trade-offs involved in manufacturing large volumes of wind technologies, while addressing cost, workforce, and logistics issues. All of this research is supported by NREL's outstanding research teams, tools, data, and facilities. A WETO-funded international wind energy field campaign, the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), has brought together experts from NREL, PNNL, and Sandia National Laboratories to create the world's most comprehensive set of high-resolution data on wind energy atmospheric phenomenon. This study could lead to more accurate predictions of losses from turbine-to-turbine wake interactions, eventually helping wind plants capture more energy and operators save millions of dollars. In addition, NREL researchers developed testing, modeling, and analysis tools to improve the security of power grids by identifying wind power plant dynamic stability problems. A new Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS) protects golden eagles from turbine encounters by predicting flight paths. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2022 (between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022).

accomplishments↗

AI-Driven Smart Community Control for Accelerating PV Adoption and Enhancing Grid Resilience

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has launched a Connected Communities program that supports projects that expand DOE's network of grid-interactive, efficient building communities nationwide. As an early pilot of Connected Communities, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners have developed and demonstrated a community-scale, hierarchical control solution to address the potential grid issues arising from high penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) as well as to improve grid reliability and resilience in this residential community. A field pilot study has been performed at an affordable housing development called the Basalt Vista Community, which was built for school teachers and other professionals in the local workforce and represents an autonomous energy grid with all-electric, energy-efficient homes. With no natural gas line in the community, this is the first all-electric net-zero community in rural Colorado. In the field pilot study, NREL has validated the performance of the hierarchical control solution, which consists of NREL's foresee home energy management systems (HEMS) and community aggregators, in increasing demand flexibility and self-consuming PV, reducing potential over-voltages, and supporting critical loads during emergency events. In this presentation, we will present the methodology, simulation and field pilot results, and lessons learned from the project.

all-electric community↗

Scenarios for Future Energy Systems

Energy systems in the U.S. and globally have continuously changed and expanded over the past 200 years, from animal and biomass based energy to electricity and petroleum for heat, light, transportation, and industries of all kinds. The most recent two decades have experienced a significant increase in the use of natural gas, solar, and wind energy, as well as energy efficiency, due to both technology breakthroughs and public policy. With history as a guide, we can expect on-going transformation of our energy system in future decades, including increased electrification and advanced energy technologies, ideally helping meet societal goals of reducing pollution, improving quality of human life, and preserving ecosystems. Scenario modeling is an important tool for planning energy system transformations toward specific goals - such as net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, 100% renewable energy, or energy security - particularly when there are multiple options, conflicting objectives, and significant unknowns about a path forward. This presentation will review the history of energy transitions and the future policy and societal objectives on energy. Then it will summarize multiple scenario studies of future energy systems, with a focus on "100% studies" and the challenges to meeting those objectives. It will also outline of a few of the technologies being researched now that could advance the ongoing energy transition.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY,↗

US Department of Energy Better Plants Program’s Approach to Manufacturing Workforce Development

Multiple studies suggest that by 2030, millions of jobs may go unfilled because of a significant skills gap between the current manufacturing workforce and the workforce needed to support the shift toward advanced and sustainable manufacturing. According to US manufacturers, finding the right talent is more difficult now than in previous years. Developing a well-trained workforce will play a critical role in transforming the manufacturing sector into a net-zero contributor of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. To help reduce energy, water, waste, and greenhouse gas emissions as well as build a strong, sustainable manufacturing workforce, the US Department of Energy created the voluntary Better Plants program in 2011. This study discusses the program’s various workforce development activities, including in-plant trainings, virtual in-plant trainings, and in-person bootcamps. The target audiences, training objectives, and topics designed to upskill workers for a low-carbon manufacturing future are described. Feedback that was collected (e.g., new training topics, certifications, hands-on activities) while working with more than 270 US manufacturers for the past 12 years on workforce development are discussed. Finally, some strategies are proposed to address the feedback.

Guo, Wei↗

Heat pumps in the United States: Market potentials, challenges and opportunities, technology advances

The US heat pump market has been affected by the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Biden administration’s goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 through electrification and clean energy technologies is accelerating the research, development, and deployment of heat pumps in the United States for improved energy performance, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and wider adoption. The US heat pump market has experienced steady growth since 2010. In 2020, heat pumps surpassed gas furnace shipments for the first time, and the trend maintains through 2022. The current priority is to improve the affordability of energy and equitable access to heat pump technologies through cost reductions and further accelerate this trend. In addition, current R&D includes emphases on alternative refrigeration technology and lower–global warming potential refrigerants to reduce direct emissions. Heat pump market share is expected to grow as regulatory policies and financial incentives steer the building sector toward decarbonization. This paper reviews policies and market trends, discusses the challenges and opportunities in the current policy landscape, and reviews current research in the United States.

Malhotra, Mini↗

Influence of ESG Investing on Growth of CCS in U.S.

This presentation is being submitted as part of a sponsored session titled, "The Role of Carbon Capture & Storage in Reaching Net Zero Emissions," to the United States Association for Energy Economics (USAEE) and will be presented at the 39th USAEE/International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) North American Conference to be held October 24–26, 2022, in Houston, Texas.

Zaremsky, Connie↗

Development of Prototypical District-Scale Models: Preprint

The U.S. has set the climate goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. District-scale solutions, which include scale-specific opportunities for energy and emissions savings, can be investigated and implemented to help accelerate decarbonization and progress toward this goal. However, there is currently a lack of district-scale models of buildings and community energy systems that can be used to evaluate potential district-scale technologies and strategies across a range of representative community types. This initial work aims to define and develop prototype district models that can be adapted to support the planning, design, and operation of buildings and energy systems in districts considering the complexity and interactions of diverse building loads, weather impacts, distributed energy resources (e.g., PV, EV, electric and thermal energy storage), electric and thermal grid systems, and pricing signals. An overall workflow for developing these prototype district models is established. Stakeholders and potential users of the prototype district models provided technical feedback. The specifications of the selected high priority districts were defined and documented in a scorecard format. An example prototype district model was implemented with the URBANoptTM platform workflows. A case study was performed to demonstrate the model application.

district↗

The Global Climate Action Partnership

The Global Climate Action Partnership (GCAP; formerly the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership) is a worldwide network that accelerates ambitious climate goals and advances implementation in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Our strategic approach emphasizes country-driven implementation actions to achieve resilient, just, and inclusive low-emission and net-zero economies. As an incubator for scalable knowledge and solutions, GCAP is leading the way to equitable, climate-resilient, low-emission development.

African Climate Action Partnership↗

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Energy Efficiency's Role in Industrial Decarbonization

Around the world, efforts are increasing to drastically reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold the increase in global average temperature rise to below 2°C as compared with preindustrial levels, specifically aiming to limit it to 1.5°C. As of 2017, the global average temperature rise reached approximately 1°C. It is expected to hit the 1.5°C mark by 2040 if current trends continue. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require reaching net zero emissions in the latter half of the 21st century; GHG emissions would need to reach a near-zero value by 2050 to limit the rise to 1.5°C.

Sundaramoorthy, Senthil↗

Energy Systems Decarbonization: Perspectives on Electric Vehicles and Grid Integration

The imperative for strong and rapid emissions reductions to mitigate global warming and enhance air quality necessitates a transition to net-zero emissions. This shift requires significant changes throughout the entire energy supply-demand ecosystems, tailored to various sectors. Transportation stands as the least-diversified energy sector and the largest source of U.S. GHG emissions. As the primary catalyst for vehicle decarbonization when paired with clean electricity, electric vehicles (EVs) will play a pivotal role in the future. EVs are poised to drive substantial growth in electricity demand and presents a unique opportunity to provide demand-side flexibility that is crucial for future renewable-dominated electricity systems. Smart integration of EVs can strengthen the grid, reducing costs and enhancing resilience. At NREL, laying the scientific groundwork to actualize this vision: our research is finding ways for EVs to support grid planning and operations across several timescales and to fully exploit the synergies between EVs and renewables.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

Estimating the Value of Nuclear Integrated Hydrogen Production and the Dependency of Electricity and Hydrogen Markets on Natural Gas

Producing low carbon Hydrogen at a competitive price is one of the challenges to hydrogen being part of the solution to reach net-zero emission targets set by the U.S. DOE by 2050. With projected near-term improvements in technology, hydrogen production via solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) / high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) integrated with existing light water reactor (LWR) Nuclear Power Plants (NPP-HTSE) can produce carbon-free hydrogen competitively. In the near term, a 10-year production tax credit (PTC) found in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been passed, which will catalyze the development and improvement of hydrogen production technology to be competitive. The “1-1-1” target set by the U.S. DOE is to reduce the cost of carbon-free hydrogen by 80% to $1 per kilogram in 1 decade. Several models are available to analyze the profitability, opportunity, and technical capability of NPP-HTSE systems. In order of complexity from most complex to least complex some of these models include: RAVEN/HERON, process models using Aspen HYSYS and capital expense estimations using Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) calculation using the H2A model (Hydrogen Analysis Model), and custom spread sheets built by the interested party. Though some of the more advanced existing models provide detailed analysis to complex grid integrated problems, they also can take considerable time to setup and run. These advanced models are well suited to complex grid integrated analysis and the consideration of flexibility and variability of regulated and de-regulated electricity price and advanced estimation of capital and operating expenses and heat and material balances.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Release of a High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) Steady State Multiphysics Model to the Virtual Test Bed

In response to climate change, global governments and private industry have established a common goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 \cite{osti_1865910}. This goal requires a reassessment of current energy demands and production methods. Reducing emissions at an affordable cost while maintaining grid reliability requires a nationwide collaborative effort among government and industry in the United States. Nuclear power is the leading low-carbon electricity generation method. In the past 50 years, the use of nuclear power has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by over 60 gigatons and has played a crucial role in the security of energy supply~\cite{IEA}. In the U.S., nuclear power accounts for 20\% of the electrical supply and provides energy reliably. Advanced reactors will operate at higher temperatures, operate more efficiently, utilize more energy stored within fuel, and reduce the amount of waste produced \cite{osti_1616270}. To face these challenges and goals, the U.S. Department of Energy has created an initiative to focus on the modeling and simulation tools to support future nuclear power plant design, licensing, and operations. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB)~\cite{vtb2023} was launched by the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) in collaboration with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to support the advanced nuclear reactor community. The VTB involves teams from both Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory and aims to provide example models for a broad range of both current and future advanced reactor designs. A feature of the VTB is the automatic testing of these models to ensure continued functionality as simulation tools are further developed. The VTB and the advanced reactor models documented there are important resources for this initiative. This work describes the inclusion of a new model on the VTB---a High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) steady-state model \cite{LABOURE2023109838}.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Step toward Process Electrification: Microwave-Assisted Co-Gasification of Waste Plastics and Biomass to Produce Clean Energy

Barely 9% of the 353 million metric tons of plastic waste produced worldwide over the last two decades has been recycled, with the majority of it being either landfilled or incinerated. Recycling and upcycling plastic waste is thus essential in mitigating environmental pollution. Gasification is the thermochemical conversion of solid carbon feedstock at high temperatures using a gasifying agent to produce hydrogen-rich syngas. Existing gasification technologies are energy-intensive and require high operating temperatures (>1000 °C), leaving them uncommercial. Microwave heating has sparked attention in a variety of chemical processes due to its specific advantages over traditional heating technologies, such as rapid and selective heating to improve process efficiency. NETL’s research team recently investigated the synergistic advantages of corn stover and mixed plastics in producing hydrogen-rich syngas via microwave heating. As a continuation of the research, this study provides an outlook over the non-catalytic versus catalytic effects of plastic-corn stover gasification via process electrification to enhance H2 production, minimize undesired tar, and improve process efficiency. Our aim is to provide complete electrification of the existing gasification process by using waste plastics as a starting block to produce valuable fuel and support the nation’s net zero goals.

Abedin, Ashraf↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

An Open-Source Decarbonization Analytics Framework: Designing for Low-Carbon Emission Districts and Communities: Preprint

This paper introduces an open-source analytics framework designed to assist in creating low or net-zero carbon buildings and urban districts. Integrated within URBANopt, an open-source platform for energy analysis in districts and communities, this framework equips researchers, architects, engineers, and other stakeholders with tools to evaluate the carbon footprint implications of their design choices. The framework enables the analysis of various scenarios, incorporating both historical and future emission factors, and can span across different climate zones, each with distinct grid and emissions characteristics. The results showcase the framework's capability to evaluate the impact of design upgrades and control strategies on carbon emissions in districts and communities. An illustrative analysis using a hypothetical district in Denver, Colorado, shows reduced emissions from energy efficiency upgrades and control strategies, highlighting the sensitivity in their effects on emissions and energy use.

buildings energy efficiency↗

National Park Service: Spotlight on Partnerships

This presentation covers the National Park Service net zero vision and related technical analysis. The NPS/NREL/FEMP partnership include: (1) Partnership spanning more than a decade; (2) Technical support encompasses renewable energy analysis, audit support, fleet technical analysis, resilience assessments, and more.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗