Regression-based projection for learning Mori-Zwanzig operators
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Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration
This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.
Bayesian inference↗
Numerical methods for fractional Fokker–Planck equation with multiplicative Marcus Lévy noises
The Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) is an important deterministic tool for investigating stochastic dynamical systems. In this paper, we consider the space-time fractional FPE driven by multiplicative Marcus Lévy noises. Efficient numerical schemes are presented to solve the equations. Stability and convergence of the methods are also discussed. We give some numerical experiments to validate our schemes, and examine the effects of parameters on solutions. Additionally, we analyze the maximal likely trajectories and the critical time for the change of the most probability location.
Mathematics↗
FFTX-IRIS: Towards Performance Portability and Heterogeneity for SPIRAL Generated Code
FFTX-IRIS is a dynamic system to efficiently utilize novel heterogeneous platforms. This system links two next-generation frameworks, FFTX and IRIS, to navigate the complexity of different hardware architectures. FFTX provides a runtime code generation framework for high-performance Fast Fourier Transform kernels. IRIS runtime provides portability and multi-device heterogeneity, allowing computation on any available compute resource. Together, FFTX-IRIS enables code generation, seamless portability, and performance without user involvement. We show the design of the FFTX-IRIS system along with an evaluation of various small FFT benchmarks. We also demonstrate multi-device heterogeneity of FFTX-IRIS with a larger stencil application.
Rao, Sanil↗
Toward fusion plasma scenario planning for NSTX-U using machine-learning-accelerated models
One of the most promising devices for realizing power production through nuclear fusion is the tokamak. To maximize performance, it is preferable that tokamak reactors achieve advanced operating scenarios characterized by good plasma confinement, improved magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability, and a largely non-inductively driven plasma current. Such scenarios could enable steady-state reactor operation with high \emph{fusion gain} --- the ratio of produced fusion power to the external power provided through the plasma boundary. Precise and robust control of the evolution of the plasma boundary shape as well as the spatial distribution of the plasma current, density, temperature, and rotation will be essential to achieving and maintaining such scenarios. The complexity of the evolution of tokamak plasmas, arising due to nonlinearities and coupling between various parameters, motivates the use of model-based control algorithms that can account for the system dynamics. In this work, a learning-based accelerated model trained on data from the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is employed to develop planning and control strategies for regulating the density and temperature profile evolution around desired trajectories. The proposed model combines empirical scaling laws developed across multiple devices with neural networks trained on empirical data from NSTX-U and a database of first-principles-based computationally intensive simulations. The reduced execution time of the accelerated model will enable practical application of optimization algorithms and reinforcement learning approaches for scenario planning and control development. An initial demonstration of applying optimization approaches to the learning-based model is presented, including a strategy for mitigating the effect of leaving the finite validity range of the accelerated model. The approach shows promise for actuator planning between experiments and in real-time.
machine learning↗
EUForia
EUForia is a general-purpose model checker that solves reachability problems in dynamical systems. It implements an abstraction-refinement process in which the system is iteratively approximated until it can prove or disprove that a system state is reachable. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-3020 O
Bueno, Denis↗
Master State Distributed Estimator (masde)
The MSE technology provides a distributed state estimation scheme for power utilities by making it a real time dynamic system, versus the static snapshot method used today. This will allow utilities to verify power grid readings and identify false data on the communication network. The prevailing method of estimation takes all the data from the system into a single load flow equation at the utilities command center. This becomes a large algorithm that is very time consuming to solve, providing the engineers only snap shots of the system. The MFD distributes an algorithm to devises that are already installed at various locations on the power grid. This allows for much faster computer times because the algorithms contain magnitudes less data. When each distributed estimator completes its calculation, it sends the results back to the master device to check against all other distributed estimators.
Reen, DylanW.↗
Generic Semi-Analytical Simulation Tool (GenSAS)
A generic simulation tool for power grid and general dynamic systems based on semi-analytical solutions (SAS) technology.
QUI, FENG↗
ROMNet: Neural-Network-Based Surrogates for Reduced-Order Model Dynamics
SAND2023-05829O ROMNet is a toolbox built on the Tensorflow library for training reduced-order, neural operator surrogate models. The software is used for training reduced order neural operator surrogate models for dynamical systems applications. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
SciDAC↗
pnnl/deps_arXiv2020
This software implements data-driven control and dynamic systems models using deep learning methods. The particular application is building temperature control.
Tuor, Aaron↗
pnnl/FlexyAirDeepMPC
This is a trained machine learning model written in Pytorch for automated control of the FlexyAir (https://ocl.sk/hardware/flexyair/) dynamical system control educational device. This software is to be released to support our demonstration of our deepMPC methods on embedded hardware to control a real (albeit tutorial) physical system with control actuators.
Tuor, Aaron↗
ciemss/pyciemss
Causal and probabilistic reasoning with continuous time dynamical systems
Witty, Sam [Sorbus AI]↗
Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation
The Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) is a system-dynamics model of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from mining to disposal, using user-defined deployment scenarios, fuel recipes, and recycling parameters. It is written in the PowerSim simulation environment and utilized MS Excel to manage data inputs and outputs.
Hays, RossD (0000000184587539)↗
Interplays In The Rare Earth Element Value Chain
An imbalance problem exists in the rare earth element (REE) market with cerium and lanthanum being more abundant and less valuable than REEs used in permanent magnets such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Research has been conducted on new applications for abundant REEs to improve mining economics. However, potential market impacts of these applications on individual REE commodities are unknown. A system dynamics model was built to investigate the impacts of a new aluminum-cerium (Al-Ce) alloy that can theoretically utilize three separate cerium forms: cerium carbonate, cerium oxide, or cerium metal. Cerium carbonate currently possesses the lowest price of the three available forms making it initially the most favorable choice. However, model results showed that cerium oxide could provide the best economics for future Al-Ce alloy deployment because its larger market size buffers major shocks to price.
Severson, Michael [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗
Reno
Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.
Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
Platinum Group Metals Global Economics Market Supply
Due to uncertainty in the transition away from internal combustion engines (and more importantly, the catalytic convertors these automobiles use), there is large uncertainty in the future of the PGM market. However, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers could be a new demand application for PGMs. Therefore, a model was developed which utilizes the system dynamics approach to predict supply and prices for specific demand scenarios. Results indicated that the total PGM market value sees a decline in the late 2020s due to changing automotive application demand. Market decline was due to decreasing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle demand resulting in less PGMs supplied for automotive applications. Compounding market decline was an increase in secondary supply of PGMs as more ICE automotives reach their EOL pushing PGM prices down as secondary supply increases while demand simultaneously decreases. Following the market decline, an increase in market value in the early 2030s was observed due to deployment of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and subsequent increase in PGM demand
Kulkarni, Sameer (0000000227573592)↗
BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]
The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.
Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock↗