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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Interaction of magnetic fields with spinons in a fractionalized state

The 4d-electron trimer lattice Ba₄Nb₁₋ₓRu₃₊ₓO₁₂ exhibits either a quantum spin liquid (QSL) or a heavy-fermion strange metal (HFSM) phase, depending on Nb content. In the QSL state, itinerant spinons act as effective heat carriers, enhancing thermal conductivity. Strikingly, applying a magnetic field up to 14 T causes an abrupt, up-to-5000% increase in heat capacity below 150 mK, disrupting the linear temperature dependence typical of both phases. Meanwhile, AC susceptibility and electrical resistivity remain nearly unchanged, while thermal conductivity drops by up to 40% below 4 K. These results suggest spinons, despite being charge-neutral, are highly sensitive to magnetic fields at low temperatures. We propose that the magnetic field could induce Anderson localization of spinons, creating emergent non-magnetic two-level systems responsible for the Schottky-like anomaly in heat capacity. These findings point to a previously unexplored regime of spinon dynamics, potentially governed by field-induced localization and distinct from conventional magnetic or transport signatures.

Condensed-matter physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Block copolymer self-assembly derived mesoporous magnetic materials with three-dimensionally (3D) co-continuous gyroid nanostructure

Magnetic nanomaterials are gaining interest for their many applications in technological areas from information science and computing to next-generation quantum energy materials. While magnetic materials have historically been nanostructured through techniques such as lithography and molecular beam epitaxy, there has recently been growing interest in using soft matter self-assembly. In this work, a triblock terpolymer, poly(isoprene-block-styrene-block-ethylene oxide) (ISO), is used as a structure directing agent for aluminosilicate sol nanoparticles and magnetic material precursors to generate organic–inorganic bulk hybrid films with co-continuous morphology. After thermal processing into mesoporous materials, results from a combination of small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) are consistent with the double gyroid morphology. Nitrogen sorption measurements reveal a type IV isotherm with H1 hysteresis, and yield a specific surface area of around 200 m 2 g −1 and an average pore size of 23 nm. The magnetization of the mesostructured material as a function of applied field shows magnetic hysteresis and coercivity at 300 K and 10 K. Comparison of magnetic measurements between the mesoporous gyroid and an unstructured bulk magnetic material, derived from the identical inorganic precursors, reveals the structured material exhibits a coercivity of 250 Oe, opposed to 148 Oe for the unstructured at 10 K, and presence of remnant magnetic moment not conventionally found in bulk hematite; both of these properties are attributed to the mesostructure. This scalable route to mesoporous magnetic materials with co-continuous morphologies from block copolymer self-assembly may provide a pathway to advanced magnetic nanomaterials with a range of potential applications.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Studies of laser stimulated photodetachment from nanoparticles for particle charge measurements

Determining nanoparticle charge is more challenging than that for microparticles due to change in the particle size during the synthesis substantial plasma property variations, and difficulties in visualizing individual particles, rendering conventional microparticle charge diagnostics ineffective in dusty plasma. In this work, we utilized laser-stimulated photodetachment (LSPD) to deduce the mean charge of nanoparticles. Nanoparticles were grown in an Ar/C 2 H 2 mixture using a capacitively coupled RF discharge and the LSPD induced changes in the electron current monitored by a cylindrical Langmuir probe. LSPD signals were obtained and analyzed across different dust growth phases. The prolonged decay of electron current pulses was attributed to the presence of residual negative ions, caused by the effective electrostatic trapping of these ions and the potential post—LSPD re-formation of new ones. The particle charge was estimated by combining the laser-stimulated photodetachment signal from the probe with the dust density obtained from laser-light extinction using the measured nanoparticle size distribution. For a nanoparticles size range of approximately 100–250 nm and mean diameter of $d$ p ∼154.37 nm, the effective mean charge was estimated to be $\langle$$Q$$\rangle$ d $≈$ 37 elementary charge units. The measured charge values are lower than those predicted by orbital motion limited theory, which may be attributed to significant electron depletion in the nanodusty plasma. LSPD results in Ar/C 2 H 2 nano-dusty plasma confirm the applicability of this method for estimating individual nanoparticle charges. However, it has also been demonstrated that electron detachment from residual background negative ions can influence the detachment current decay and must be carefully considered.

dust particle charge↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Technical Evaluation of Self-Protection Dose Rates in U.S. Domestic Nuclear Security Policy

U.S. nuclear security policy uses radiation self-protection as a basis for reducing material attractiveness, but existing dose-rate criteria may not reflect the time scales of theft or sabotage. This report evaluates whether the commonly cited 1 Gy/h at 1 m criterion can plausibly cause adversary task failure during short-duration malicious acts.

Fritchie, Jacob Wesley [Sandia National Laboratori↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decadal-Scale Hydrothermal Alteration of Basalt: Implications for Long-Term Reactivity in Subsurface Technologies

Global demands to secure critical mineral supply chains and managing water resources require innovative resource management strategies. Subsurface basalt reservoirs offer a dual-purpose application, where CO2 enhanced critical metal recovery can be coupled with water remediation strategies for the extraction of economically important and environmentally relevant elements. This study utilizes static batch experiments conducted on Columbia River Basalt Group samples to evaluate long-term fluid–rock interactions relevant to coupled subsurface applications. Samples were reacted under elevated temperature and pressure conditions, for 296 and 4,061 days, providing a unique dataset to assess geochemical evolution, element partitioning, and aqueous chemistry over decadal timescales. The alteration was dominated by silicate, aluminosilicate, and oxide phases. Progressive hydrothermal alteration increased the cation exchange capacity through the formation of secondary minerals (e.g. clays and zeolites), influencing solute retention, ion exchange behavior, and aqueous chemistry. Grain-scale and bulk analyses revealed selective cation release and retention patterns, establishing a mechanistic baseline for predicting element mobility. These geochemical constraints inform the prospective use of CO2-enhanced metal recovery for critical resources (e.g. Co, Ni, Mn, Mg, Ti, Fe) and associated water-quality impacts, providing a foundation for the design and management of engineered fluid–rock systems in basalt reservoirs.

Gibson, Marie N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

High‐Loading Lithium‐Sulfur Batteries with Solvent‐Free Dry‐Electrode Processing

Abstract Lithium‐sulfur (Li‐S) batteries, with their high energy density, nontoxicity, and the natural abundance of sulfur, hold immense potential as the next‐generation energy storage technology. To maximize the actual energy density of the Li‐S batteries for practical applications, it is crucial to escalate the areal capacity of the sulfur cathode by fabricating an electrode with high sulfur loading. Herein, ultra‐high sulfur loading (up to 12 mg cm −2 ) cathodes are fabricated through an industrially viable and sustainable solvent‐free dry‐processing method that utilizes a polytetrafluoroethylene binder fibrillation. Due to its low porosity cathode architecture formed by the binder fibrillation process, the dry‐processed electrodes exhibit a relatively lower initial capacity compared to the slurry‐processed electrode. However, its mechanical stability is well maintained throughout the cycling without the formation of electrode cracking, demonstrating significantly superior cycling stability. Additionally, through the optimization of the dry‐processing, a single‐layer pouch cell with a loading of 9 mg cm −2 and a novel multi‐layer pouch cell that uses an aluminum mesh as its current collector with a total loading of 14 mg cm −2 are introduced. To address the reduced initial capacity of dry‐processed electrodes, strategies such as incorporating electrocatalysts or employing prelithiated active materials are suggested.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Smart Charging of Fleet and Personal Electric Vehicles through Joint Vehicle-to-Grid Optimization

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies offer advantages over unmanaged charging (V0G) by enhancing grid stability, reducing fleet operation costs, and supporting integration of variable generation resources. This research develops a day-ahead optimization framework linked with agent-based simulations to evaluate coordinated V2G participation by fleet and personal EVs under 5 energy-pricing settings in Austin, Texas. Three scenarios (V0G, fleet-only V2G, and joint-V2G) are examined, considering real-time price and grid profiles, health-damage costs, and operational constraints for both fleet and personal EVs. Results show how V2G scenarios shift fleet EV charging to mid-day while enabling strategic battery-discharge during evening peaks, mitigating grid stress and lowering EV energy costs. V2G delivers close to 80% energy-cost savings for a 2000-EV fleet in Austin on grid-stressed days, with 55% lower charging pollutant outputs. Joint-V2G amplifies system-level benefits by complementing fleet discharge, but smart-charging equipment costs can offset those benefits.

Electric vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of Online Cross-Section Generation Capability with Depletion and Transient Solvers in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOENE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In FY25, an online crosssection generation capability based on the Self-Shielding Application Programming Interface (SSAPI) was demonstrated for TRISO-fueled reactor problems under steady-state conditions. This fiscal year, that capability was extended to support depletion and transient multiphysics calculations, enabling high-fidelity analyses that generate self-shielded cross sections on the fly from the actual evolving composition and temperature states rather than from pre-tabulated libraries. For depletion, a two-way coupling was established in which SSAPI computes compact-averaged self-shielded cross sections that the depletion solver then uses to advance the Bateman equations, with the updated compositions returned to SSAPI at each step; the depletion module was refactored to support both library-based and SSAPI-based cross sections, and additional logic was added to track daughter isotopes and to exclude minor isotopes for efficiency. For transient analysis, the SSAPI multigroup library was extended with the kinetics data required for time-dependent calculations, the Improved Quasi-Static (IQS) scheme was coupled with SSAPI, and several supporting capabilities were implemented, including a self-shielding treatment that lets control rods and drums move within a self-shielded model, which had previously been impossible and had ruled out rod- and drum-movement transients with on-the-fly cross sections altogether, a new mixing scheme for delayed-neutron precursor decay constants, a checkpoint-based restart workflow, and performance improvements such as pointwise cross-section interpolation and the bypassing of unnecessary Dancoff factor calculations. The implemented capabilities were verified against Serpent Monte Carlo solutions. For depletion, a prismatic pin-cell problem based on a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Very High Temperature Reactor benchmark showed excellent agreement, with eigenvalue differences within 200 pcm over the entire burnup range (up to 140 MWD/kgU) and fission-product and actinide inventories agreeing to within 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively; a heat-pipe microreactor assembly problem with a much higher fuel loading confirmed the same behavior and quantified the bias introduced when the multigroup equivalence effect is neglected. For transient analysis, a pin-cell problem with a step reactivity insertion and temperature feedback reproduced the analytically expected asymptotic power and showed close agreement between the direct and IQS solutions, and a two-dimensional microreactor core problem with control-drum rotation exercised the new moving-drum self-shielding treatment and demonstrated successful coupling of the online crosssection generation with both the direct and IQS transient methods. The capability was further exercised on a full-core pebble-bed problem, in which Griffin was coupled with the System Analysis Module (SAM) to simulate load-following operation of the gPBR with the Doppler feedback resolved at the TRISO fuel kernel temperature. These developments in Griffin provide a convenient, high-fidelity approach to cross-section generation for advanced thermal reactors with geometrically complex and highly heterogeneous configurations, including TRISO-fueled prismatic and pebble-bed systems, and support steady-state, depletion, and transient multiphysics calculations. They also enable self-shielded cross sections to be evaluated directly at the actual coupled state of the system, thereby establishing a foundation for high-fidelity, fully coupled multiphysics analysis of advanced reactors

Park, H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Realization of two-dimensional discrete time crystals with anisotropic Heisenberg coupling

A discrete time crystal (DTC) is an out-of-equilibrium phase of matter that spontaneously breaks discrete time-translation symmetry. Previous studies have been limited to a set of models with Ising-like couplings - and mostly only in one dimension - thus precluding our understanding of the existence (or not) of DTCs in models with more realistic interactions. In this work, by combining the latest generation of IBM quantum processors with state-of-the-art tensor network methods, we demonstrate the existence of a DTC in a two-dimensional system governed by anisotropic Heisenberg interactions. We uncover a rich phase diagram encompassing spin-glass, ergodic, and time-crystalline phases, and identify the interplay of initialization, interaction anisotropy, and driving protocols in stabilizing the DTC phase. By extending the study of Floquet matter beyond simplified models, we lay the groundwork for exploring how driven systems bridge the gap between quantum coherence and emergent non-equilibrium thermodynamics.

Phase transitions and critical phenomena↗
DOE OSTI2025

In‐Plane Anisotropy in van der Waals NiTeSe Ternary Alloy

Abstract The anisotropic properties of materials profoundly influence their electronic, magnetic, optical, and mechanical behaviors and are critical for a wide range of applications. In this study, the anisotropic characteristics of Ni‐based van der Waals materials, specifically NiTe 2 and its alloy NiTeSe, utilizing a combination of comprehensive scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), angle‐resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), and density functional theory (DFT) calculations, are explored. Unlike 1T‐NiTe 2 , which exhibits trigonal in‐plane symmetry, the substitution of Te with Se in NiTe 2 (resulting in the NiTeSe alloy) induces a pronounced in‐plane anisotropy. This anisotropy is clear in the STM topographs, which reveal a distinct linear order of charge distribution. Corroborating these observations, ARPES measurements and DFT calculations reveal an anisotropic Fermi surface centered at the point, which is notably elongated along the k y direction, leading to directional variations in in‐plane carrier velocities. Consequently, the Fermi velocity is highest along the k x direction where the linear charge distribution aligns in real space and is lowest along the k y direction. These findings offer valuable insights into the tunability of anisotropic properties in ternary transition metal dichalcogenide systems, highlighting their potential applications in the development of anisotropic electronic and optoelectronic devices.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overcoming the Entropy Penalty of Direct Air Capture for Efficient Gigatonne Removal of Carbon Dioxide

Atmospheric carbon poses an existential threat to civilization via global climate change. Hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon dioxide must be removed from earth’s atmosphere in the next three decades, necessitating a low-cost, energy-efficient process to extract low concentrations of carbon dioxide for conversion to a stable material permanently stored for thousands of years. In this work, the challenge of removing gigatonnes of CO 2 is described via the scale of effort and the thermodynamics of collecting and reducing this diffuse chemical, the accumulation of which imparts a substantial entropy penalty on any atmospheric carbon capture process. The methods of CO 2 reduction combined with upstream direct air capture (DAC) including absorption, membrane separation, and adsorption are compared with biomass torrefaction and permanent burial (BTB). A Monte Carlo model assesses the mass, energy, and economics of the full process of biomass torrefaction from biomass collection and transport to stable carbon burial to determine that 95% of scenarios could remove carbon for less than $200 per CO 2 -tonne-equivalent. Torrefied carbon is further discussed for its long-term stability and availability at the scale required to substantially mitigate the threat of climate change.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting thermodynamic phase transition via explainable machine learning of photoemission spectroscopy

Identifying thermodynamic signatures of electronic phases, such as superconductivity, is challenging in low-dimensional materials due to strong fluctuations and low probing volume. Spectroscopic methods are often used to identify new bulk phases, but their main measurable quantity—electronic energy gaps—is no longer an effective order parameter in low-dimensional and fluctuating systems. Combining angle-resolved photoemission with a domain-adversarial neural network, we report a data-driven method to identify thermodynamic phase transitions solely based on single-particle spectra. We demonstrate 97.6% accuracy in cuprate superconductor Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ with strong superconducting fluctuations. This model notably compensates for the scarcity of experimental data by leveraging virtually inexhaustible simulated data. Further, its explainability reveals the crucial role of in-gap spectral weight in detecting phase fluctuations and thermodynamic transitions. Our work pinpoints the spectroscopic signatures of fluctuating orders and enables using spectroscopy for machine-learning-assisted material discovery for low-dimensional and strong coupling systems.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Imaging of a van der Waals spin-orbit torque system using spin ensembles in hBN

Recently, optically active spin defects embedded in two-dimensional (2D) van der Waals (vdW) crystals have emerged as a transformative quantum sensing platform to explore cutting-edge materials science. Taking advantage of excellent solid-state integrability, this new class of spin defects can be readily arranged in nanoscale proximity to target materials, showing great promise for realizing in-situ quantum sensing of microscopic spin and charge behaviors in vdW heterostructures. Here we report hexagonal boron nitride-based quantum imaging of field-free deterministic magnetic switching and electric current distributions in an all-vdW spin-orbit torque (SOT) system. By visualizing variations of nanoscale magnetic stray field profile of room-temperature 2D magnet Fe 3 GaTe 2 under different SOT conditions, we show how the magnetic switching evolves from deterministic to stochastic behavior due to the interplay between spin orientations, anisotropy and Joule heating. Micromagnetic simulations rationalize our results well, revealing the role of field-like SOT in inhibiting thermal fluctuation driven stochastic switching and chaotic multi-domain competition. This understanding, which is otherwise difficult to access by conventional transport measurements, offers valuable insights into material design, testing, and performance evaluation of next-generation vdW spintronic devices.

Imaging techniques↗
DOE OSTI2025

Next-Generation Energy Technologies for Connected and Automated On-Road Vehicles (NEXTCAR) - Predictive Data-Driven Vehicle Dynamics and Powertrain Control: from ECU to the Cloud (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed and demonstrated a predictive, data-driven vehicle control system designed to improve energy efficiency and driving performance. The team created intelligent self-driving car technology that optimizes fuel and electricity use by proactively planning vehicle actions. By combining Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity, the system enables vehicles to adjust speed and change lanes in response to traffic signals, surrounding vehicles, and road conditions, reducing unnecessary stops and delays. In testing, the system improved vehicle fuel economy by more than 30% and reduced travel time by approximately 10%, compared to a conventional adaptive cruise control baseline. These results demonstrate the technical effectiveness of using predictive, V2X-enabled strategies, such as traffic light timing and surrounding traffic awareness, to inform real-time vehicle powertrain control and driving behavior. Additionally, a supporting cloud platform was developed to provide dispatch and route recommendations as well as to log vehicle data, demonstrating the economic feasibility of this approach at the fleet level. By optimizing dispatching and routing operations, this technology enables electric fleet operators to use their vehicles more efficiently and reduce reliance on diesel backups, lowering both operating costs and energy consumption. Overall, this project’s technology advances the future of clean, energy-efficient transportation, enabling vehicles and fleets to reduce energy waste, cut costs, and lower emissions through intelligent automation and connectivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recrystallization, cracking, and erosion of dispersoid-strengthened tungsten materials during exposure to divertor plasmas

In this study, we investigated the effects of combined intense particle and heat flux exposure on advanced tungsten plasma-facing materials within the DIII-D fusion facility. Our test matrix included two types of dispersoid-strengthened tungsten (containing either 100 nm diameter TiO 2 or Ni particles), along with high-purity polycrystalline tungsten as a reference. This experiment relied on a sample geometry angled at 15° relative to the divertor surface, thereby allowing the surfaces to intercept steady-state perpendicular heat fluxes (q ⟂ ) ranging from 10.1 to 19.6 MW/m 2 . During each shot, the samples were exposed to 42 Hz edge-localized modes (ELMs), allowing us to test the material response to transient heating. We correlated the exposure conditions with extensive post-test surface composition analysis and microscopy to determine how the plasma modified each surface. The angled specimens closest to the strike point received the highest combined heat and particle flux and melted midway through the experiment. EBSD analysis revealed they were completely recrystallized throughout, with an average grain size >100 µm. On the other hand, the specimens that received a lower steady state heat flux survived with more superficial surface damage. Whereas the high-purity polycrystalline tungsten exhibited a higher surface roughness, the dispersoid-strengthened material exhibited more extensive shallow inter-granular cracking. In addition, the surface was depleted of dispersoids following plasma exposure, possibly because of evaporation and/or sputtering. The results described here provide insights into the performance of these materials in a fusion environment which can guide further optimization for use in long-pulse devices.

Kolasinski, Robert D. [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗