Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “dynamic parameter estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

THE KOZAI–LIDOV MECHANISM IN HYDRODYNAMICAL DISKS. III. EFFECTS OF DISK MASS AND SELF-GRAVITY

Previously we showed that a substantially misaligned viscous accretion disk with pressure that orbits around one component of a binary system can undergo global damped Kozai–Lidov (KL) oscillations. These oscillations produce periodic exchanges of the disk eccentricity with inclination. The disk KL mechanism is quite robust and operates over a wide range of binary and disk parameters. However, the effects of self-gravity, which are expected to suppress the KL oscillations for sufficiently massive disks, were ignored. Here, we analyze the effects of disk self-gravity by means of hydrodynamic simulations and compare the results with the expectations of analytic theory. The disk mass required for suppression in the simulations is a few percent of the mass of the central star and this roughly agrees with an analytical estimate. The conditions for suppression of the KL oscillations in the simulations are close to requiring that the disk be gravitationally unstable. We discuss some implications of our results for the dynamics of protoplanetary disks and the related planet formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fully Implicit Conjugate Heat Transfer Analysis of the ARC-Class Vacuum Vessel

The coupled simulation of fusion reactor blankets including neutronics, thermal-hydraulics and thermo-mechanics is expected to speed up the design cycle of fusion reactor design concepts. In this work we demonstrate tight implicit coupling of conjugate heat transfer using the open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics software OpenFOAM for thermo-fluid mechanics and Diablo for thermo-solid mechanics. The heat transfer analysis is augmented by volumetric energy deposition from neutronic calculations using the Monte Carlo N-particle code on both solid and fluid parts of the vacuum vessel. An additional heat flux is imposed on the first wall estimated from the design power of the reactor. The tight coupling is realized through the open-source coupling library, preCICE, and tested on the vacuum vessel of the affordable, robust, compact reactor design by Commonwealth Fusion Systems. The features of the coupling and the influence of different coupling parameters such as coupling schemes, acceleration techniques and convergence criterion are discussed. The coupled simulation results are compared to a thermal-hydraulics simulation which includes only the fluid domains (the liquid immersion molten salt blanket and cooling channel) to demonstrate usefulness of a coupled simulation. Further analysis is performed to identify regions of hot spots for subsequent design improvement. This introduces the outline for integrating conjugate electromagnetics and fluid/solid mechanics (e.g., allow for deformation of the cooling channel walls) with our present approach for future analysis.

Sircar, Arpan↗
DOE OSTI2018

Global land model development: time to shift from a plant functional type to a plant functional trait approach (Final Report)

This project advanced global land models by shifting from the current plant functional type approach to one that better utilizes what is known about the importance and variability of plant traits, within a framework of simultaneously improving fundamental physiological relations that are at the core of model carbon cycling algorithms. A primary goal for Earth system modeling is to make accurate predictions of the future trajectory of the climate system, based on a mechanistic understanding of processes regulating fluxes of mass and energy among system components. Land plays an important role in modifying the Earth’s mass and energy balance, as a critical link in the global cycling of carbon, among others. Land surface models have developed to include mechanistic representations of vegetation physiology, carbon and nutrient dynamics in plants and soils, how they might respond to changing climate and chemistry, and how those changes might feedback to influence changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases themselves. Existing models represent the global distribution of vegetation types using the Plant Functional Type concept. Plant Functional Types are classes of plant species with similar evolutionary and life history with presumably similar responses to environmental conditions like CO 2 , water and nutrient availability. Fixed properties for each Plant Functional Type are specified through a collection of physiological parameters, or traits. These traits, mostly physiological in nature (e.g., leaf nitrogen and longevity) are used in model algorithms to estimate ecosystem properties and/or drive calculated process rates. In most models, 5 to 15 functional types represent terrestrial vegetation; in essence, they assume there are a total of only 5 to 15 different kinds of plants on the entire globe. This assumption of constant plant traits captured within the functional type concept has serious limitations, as a single set of traits does not reflect trait variation observed within and between species and communities. While this simplification was necessary decades past, substantial improvement is now possible. Rather than assigning a small number of constant parameter values to all grid cells in a model, we developed procedures that predict a frequency distribution of values for any given grid cell. Thus, by incorporating the mean and variance model fidelity has been improved. The trait-based approach has improved land modeling by (1) incorporating patterns and heterogeneity of traits into model parameterization, thus evolving away from a framework that considers large areas of vegetation to have near identical trait values and (2) allowing for improved treatment of physiological responses to environmental drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

DYNAMICAL MEASUREMENTS OF THE YOUNG UPPER SCORPIUS TRIPLE NTTS 155808-2219

The young, low-mass, triple system NTTS 155808-2219 (ScoPMS 20) was previously identified as a {approx}17 day period single-lined spectroscopic binary (SB) with a tertiary component at 0.21 arcsec. Using high-resolution infrared spectra, acquired with NIRSPEC on Keck II, both with and without adaptive optics (AO), we measured radial velocities (RVs) of all three components. Reanalysis of the single-lined visible light observations, made from 1987 to 1993, also yielded RV detections of the three stars. Combining visible light and infrared data to compute the orbital solution produces orbital parameters consistent with the single-lined solution and a mass ratio of q = 0.78 {+-} 0.01 for the SB. We discuss the consistency between our results and previously published data on this system, our RV analysis with both observed and synthetic templates, and the possibility that this system is eclipsing, providing a potential method for the determination of the stars' absolute masses. Over the {approx}20 year baseline of our observations, we have measured the acceleration of the SB's center of mass in its orbit with the tertiary. Long-term, AO imaging of the tertiary will eventually yield dynamical data useful for component mass estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model: Modeling Archive

This archive contains the data and Python scripts required to reproduce the analyses and figures in the study: Gomez-Velez, J. D., Rathore, S. S., Cohen, M. J., & Painter, S. L. (2025). Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model. Submitted to Water Resources Research. The analysis utilizes the subgrid model Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrids (ADELS) implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS; https://amanzi.github.io/ats/stable/). In this case, the ATS and Amanzi versions are (1) ATS version 1.5.1_f5ba18f8 and (2) Amanzi version 1.6-dev_53444cca4. The repository includes a Jupyter Notebook and the necessary data (Pandas DataFrames stored as pickle files) to generate the figures for the manuscript. Additionally, it contains Python scripts to create ATS input files, run the ATS simulations, and post-process the results. Finally, it provides routines for parameter estimation using the Single-Station Metabolism (SSM) model with the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with ZS enhancements (DREAM-ZS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Unraveling the Interfacial Structure–Performance Correlation of Flexible Metal–Organic Framework Membranes on Polymeric Substrates

Pure metal–organic framework (MOF) layers deposited on porous supports are important candidates for molecular sieving membranes, but their performance usually deviates from theoretical estimations. Here, we combine stepwise scanning electron microscopy imaging, time-resolved synchrotron X-ray scattering, terahertz infrared spectroscopy, and density functional theory calculation to investigate the ZIF-8 membrane formation on two types (polydopamine and TiO2) of functionalized porous supports. Though molecular sieving of ZIF-8 membranes for smaller gases (He, H 2 , and CO 2 ) can be achieved with both types of functionalized supports, we unravel that the strong interaction between MOF and polydopamine can disrupt the formation of “perfect” MOF crystals at the interface, leading to a “contracted” MOF structure with partially uncoordinated imidazolate ligands. This further affects the low-frequency dynamical parameters of the framework and inhibits the effective seeded growth. Eventually, it leads to an unexpected loss of selectivity for the bulkier gases (N 2 and CH 4 ) for ZIF-8 on polydopamine-functionalized supports. This work links the dynamical aspects of MOFs with their gas transport behavior and highlights the importance of regulating the interfacial weak forces to preserve the ideal molecular sieving efficiency of MOF membranes, which a

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Modifications of Carbonate Fracture Hydrodynamic Properties by CO 2 -Acidified Brine Flow

Acidic reactive flow in fractures is relevant in subsurface activities such as CO{sub 2} geological storage and hydraulic fracturing. Understanding reaction-induced changes in fracture hydrodynamic properties is essential for predicting subsurface flows such as leakage, injectability, and fluid production. In this study, x-ray computed tomography scans of a fractured carbonate caprock were used to create three dimensional reconstructions of the fracture before and after reaction with CO{sub 2}-acidified brine (Ellis et al., 2011, Greenhouse Gases: Sci. Technol., 1:248-260). As expected, mechanical apertures were found to increase substantially, doubling and even tripling in some places. However, the surface geometry evolved in complex ways including ‘comb-tooth’ structures created from preferential dissolution of calcite in transverse sedimentary bands, and the creation of degraded zones, i.e. porous calcite-depleted areas on reacted fracture surfaces. These geometric alterations resulted in increased fracture roughness, as measured by surface Z{sub 2} parameters and fractal dimensions D{sub f}. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted to quantify the changes in hydraulic aperture, fracture transmissivity and permeability. The results show that the effective hydraulic apertures are smaller than the mechanical apertures, and the changes in hydraulic apertures are nonlinear. Overestimation of flow rate by a factor of two or more would be introduced if fracture hydrodynamic properties were based on mechanical apertures, or if hydraulic aperture is assumed to change proportionally with mechanical aperture. The differences can be attributed, in part, to the increase in roughness after reaction, and is likely affected by contiguous transverse sedimentary features. Hydraulic apertures estimated by the 1D statistical model and 2D local cubic law (LCL) model are consistently larger than those calculated from the CFD simulations. In addition, a novel ternary segmentation method was devised to handle the degraded zones, allowing for a bounding analysis of the effects on hydraulic properties. We found that the degraded zones account for less than 15% of the fracture volume, but cover 70% to 80% of the fracture surface. When the degraded zones are treated as part of the fracture, the fracture transmissivities are two to four times larger because the fracture surfaces after reaction are not as rough as they would be if one considers the degraded zone as part of the rock. Therefore, while degraded zones created during geochemical reactions may not significantly increase mechanical aperture, this type of feature cannot be ignored and should be treated with prudence when predicting fracture hydrodynamic properties.

roughness↗
DOE OSTI2014

Blade tip clearance measurement of the turbine engines based on a multi-mode fiber coupled laser ranging system

The blade tip clearance is a parameter of great importance to guarantee the efficiency and safety of the turbine engines. In this article, a laser ranging system designed for blade tip clearance measurement is presented. Multi-mode fiber is utilized for optical transmission to guarantee that enough optical power is received by the sensor probe. The model of the tiny sensor probe is presented. The error brought by the optical path difference of different modes of the fiber is estimated and the length of the fiber is limited to reduce this error. The measurement range in which the optical power received by the probe remains essentially unchanged is analyzed. Calibration experiments and dynamic experiments are conducted. The results of the calibration experiments indicate that the resolution of the system is about 0.02 mm and the range of the system is about 9 mm.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ion Trapping Studies and Mitigation Strategies for the EIC ERL-Based Strong Hadron Cooler

An Energy Recovery Linac based strong hadron cooler was previously considered for the Electron-Ion Collider. The required electron beam parameters for variable-energy strong hadron cooling place significant constraints on ion trapping and collective effects. This paper presents initial studies of these constraints through a combination of analytical modelling and numerical simulations of ion production, trapping behaviour, and mitigation strategies. A multi-bunch tracking framework based on ELEGANT with the ionEffects module is used to simulate machine operation over millisecond time scales, corresponding to more than 3 × 10^5 electron bunches. The simulations include modelling of ionisation processes together with transverse electron–ion dynamics, allowing the evolution and accumulation of ions to be investigated. Analytical expressions based on Gaussian beam distributions are used to estimate ion trapping conditions and benchmark the simulation results. A bi-periodic bunch spacing scheme is also investigated as a possible mitigation method by detuning the ion oscillation frequency. These studies provide an initial assessment of ion trapping in the strong hadron cooler and demonstrate possible approaches for reducing beam–ion effects.

Bi, R. [Lancaster University, Cockcroft Institute]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimality and Noise Resilience of Critical Quantum Sensing

We compare critical quantum sensing to passive quantum strategies to perform frequency estimation, in the case of single-mode quadratic Hamiltonians. We show that, while in the unitary case both strategies achieve precision scaling quadratic with the number of photons, in the presence of dissipation this is true only for critical strategies. We also establish that working at the exceptional point or beyond threshold provides suboptimal performance. This critical enhancement is due to the emergence of a transient regime in the open critical dynamics, and is invariant to temperature changes. When considering both time and system size as resources, for both strategies the precision scales linearly with the product of the total time and the number of photons, in accordance with fundamental bounds. However, we show that critical protocols outperform optimal passive strategies if preparation and measurement times are not negligible. Our results are applicable to a broad variety of critical sensors whose phenomenology can be reduced to that of a single-mode quadratic Hamiltonian, including systems described by finite-component and fully connected models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decadal carbon decomposition dynamics in three peatlands in Northern Minnesota

The uppermost portion of the peat profile, an area of active diagenetic processes, is exceedingly important for understanding peatland dynamics and the diagenesis and geochemistry of atmospherically-deposited materials. In this study, we investigated high resolution carbon (C) accrual and peat decomposition rates at two Sphagnum-rich ombrotrophic bogs and one fen in northern Minnesota, USA by analyzing 1 cm increments from 30 cm thick intact frozen blocks of peat soil. We conducted radiocarbon analysis of Sphagnum cellulose to determine peat age and net C accumulation at each depth interval. Calibrated peat ages were determined using CALIBomb and a compilation of calibration datasets for the pre-bomb period. We fit data with a negative exponential accumulation model and used model-derived parameters to estimate net primary productivity (NPP) and a peat decomposition rate constant k. FTIR spectroscopy and C:N were used to derive humification indices and to chemically characterize the peat. NPP ranged from 180 to 266 g C m -2 year -1 , k ranged from 0.015 to 0.019 year -1 . Net C accumulation rates ranged from 112 to 174 g C m -2 year -1 at 25 years and 70 to 113 g C m -2 year-1 at 50 years. Mass loss was up to 55% during the first 50 years of peat accumulation. Decomposition is greater at depth in the bogs—where 25 cm of peat correspond to 55 years of peat accumulation—than in the fen, where peat age is approximately 25 years at 25 cm depth. Lastly, information on fine-scale variations in peat mass decomposition and loss across ombrotrophic bogs and a fen help interpret other diagenetic processes in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nanoparticle Diffusion in Miscible Polymer Nanocomposite Melts

X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy measurements were used to quantify the dynamics of bare and bimodal grafted silica nanoparticles mixed with PEO melts of different molecular weights. In dilute polymer nanocomposite (PNC) samples, we find diffusive NP behavior as described by the Stokes–Einstein relationship so long as the adsorbed PEO polymer layer is taken into account in determining both the effective NP size and its role on composite viscosity. The size of this bound layer was found to be approximately 2R g , where R g is the chain radius of gyration. We also expanded our system to investigate how the dynamics of grafted NPs differ from bare NPs with an adsorbed layer. We showed that the dynamics again can be determined by an effective NP radius at a scale smaller than the effective interparticle spacing; however, at larger length scales, the morphology and grafting parameters play a major role in the system dynamics. These results allow us to quantify NP ordering driven by polymer crystallization. It has previously been speculated that behavior is controlled by the relative ratio of time scale of crystal growth and the diffusive time scale of the NPs, a Peclet number. When the former time scale is longer, then the NPs are expected to be segregated into the interlamellar amorphous zones, while the NPs are too slow to be reorganized in the opposite case. We show here that this conjecture is quantitatively correct and the demarcation in behavior occurs for Pe = 1. Thus, we provide a way to estimate a critical spherulite growth rate for any semicrystalline PNC, at which a given NP can be ordered. Together, the results of this study permit us to tunably design PNCs through directed dispersion of NPs in a polymer matrix.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

COMPARATIVE COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF AIRFLOWS AND VAPOR DOSIMETY IN THE RESPIRATORY TRACTS OF RAT, MONKEY, AND HUMAN

Coupling computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models is useful for predicting site-specific dosimetry of airborne materials in the respiratory tract and elucidating the importance of species differences in anatomy, physiology, and breathing patterns. Historically, these models were limited to discrete regions of the respiratory system. CFD/PBPK models have now been developed for the rat, monkey, and human that encompass airways from the nose or mouth to the lung. A PBPK model previously developed to describe acrolein uptake in nasal tissues was adapted to the extended airway models as an example application. Model parameters for each anatomic region were obtained from the literature, measured directly, or estimated from published data. Airflow and site-specific acrolein uptake patterns were determined under steadystate inhalation conditions to provide direct comparisons with prior data and nasalonly simulations. Results confirmed that regional uptake was dependent upon airflow rates and acrolein concentrations with nasal extraction efficiencies predicted to be greatest in the rat, followed by the monkey, then the human. For human oral-breathing simulations, acrolein uptake rates in oropharyngeal and laryngeal tissues were comparable to nasal tissues following nasal breathing under the same exposure conditions. For both breathing modes, higher uptake rates were predicted for lower tracheo-bronchial tissues of humans than either the rat or monkey. These extended airway models provide a unique foundation for comparing dosimetry across a significantly more extensive range of conducting airways in the rat, monkey, and human than prior CFD models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: MONITORING INTERSTELLAR SCATTERING DELAYS

We report on an effort to extract and monitor interstellar scintillation parameters in regular timing observations collected for the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves pulsar timing array. Scattering delays are measured by creating dynamic spectra for each pulsar and observing epoch of wide-band observations centered near 1500 MHz and carried out at the Green Bank Telescope and the Arecibo Observatory. The ∼800 MHz wide frequency bands imply dramatic changes in scintillation bandwidth across the bandpass, and a stretching routine has been included to account for this scaling. For most of the 10 pulsars for which the scaling has been measured, the bandwidths scale with frequency less steeply than expected for a Kolmogorov medium. We find estimated scattering delay values that vary with time by up to an order of magnitude. The mean measured scattering delays are similar to previously published values and are slightly higher than predicted by interstellar medium models. We investigate the possibility of increasing the timing precision by mitigating timing errors introduced by the scattering delays. For most of the pulsars, the uncertainty in the time of arrival of a single timing point is much larger than the maximum variation of the scattering delay, suggesting that diffractive scintillation remains as only a negligible part of their noise budget.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

MAGNETIC FIELD IN ATYPICAL PROMINENCE STRUCTURES: BUBBLE, TORNADO, AND ERUPTION

Spectropolarimetric observations of prominences have been obtained with the THEMIS telescope during four years of coordinated campaigns. Our aim is now to understand the conditions of the cool plasma and magnetism in “atypical” prominences, namely when the measured inclination of the magnetic field departs, to some extent, from the predominantly horizontal field found in “typical” prominences. What is the role of the magnetic field in these prominence types? Are plasma dynamics more important in these cases than the magnetic support? We focus our study on three types of “atypical” prominences (tornadoes, bubbles, and jet-like prominence eruptions) that have all been observed by THEMIS in the He i D{sub 3} line, from which the Stokes parameters can be derived. The magnetic field strength, inclination, and azimuth in each pixel are obtained by using the inversion method of principal component analysis on a model of single scattering in the presence of the Hanle effect. The magnetic field in tornadoes is found to be more or less horizontal, whereas for the eruptive prominence it is mostly vertical. We estimate a tendency toward higher values of magnetic field strength inside the bubbles than outside in the surrounding prominence. In all of the models in our database, only one magnetic field orientation is considered for each pixel. While sufficient for most of the main prominence body, this assumption appears to be oversimplified in atypical prominence structures. We should consider these observations as the result of superposition of multiple magnetic fields, possibly even with a turbulent field component.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

WBS 4.1.2.31 Bioproduct Transition System Dynamics

Bioproducts are chemicals derived from a biomass feedstock; they can be produced on their own or as co-products of a biorefinery that also produces biofuels. Bioproducts have historically been difficult to scale up and bring to market, despite a broad understanding developed within BETO of the various conversion processes that can be used to produce bioproducts. Expanding the bioproducts industry by bringing more bioproducts to market would have a variety of positive impacts. Growth in the bioproducts industry would support the biofuels industry by enabling biorefinery co-products that yield additional revenue streams, allowing biofuel selling prices to be reduced and expanding the biofuels market. A larger bioproducts industry also has the potential to reduce carbon and other emissions associated with the U.S. chemical sector and contribute to increased price stability in some areas of the chemical market by shifting portions of the chemical sector away from reliance on fossil feedstocks. The key barrier to realizing these positive impacts is a lack of knowledge around the factors that prevent or enable bioproducts to reach the commercial market. To date, there has been essentially no research done on how successful bioproducts (commercially produced bioproducts that have captured market share) become successful, why failed bioproducts fail, and what the similarities and differences are between successful and failed bioproducts. The current project addresses this knowledge gap with a decision support tool that can be used by investors, technology developers and government agencies to bring more bioproducts to market, thereby simultaneously growing the bioproducts and biofuels industries. Development of the decision support tool was based on research on the technology development process and success rates in analogous industries, data gathered during previous BETO-funded projects, and a series of interviews with subject-matter experts within BETO, the bioproducts industry, and the investment community. This information formed a knowledge base around how bioproducts are developed from applied research to commercial scale was assembled, which was used to build the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model, a system dynamics (SD) model that tracks bioproduct development projects from applied research through the 'valley of death' of piloting and demoing to commercial scale production. The end-of-project goal is to release the BTD, along with supporting documentation, as a transparent open-source model that will inform decisions around bioproduct development and investments and enable more bioproducts to reach the market. The BTD takes as inputs techno-economic data on specific bioproducts, behavioral parameters for developers and investors, expectations around government support, and exogenous market factors. Model outputs include bioproduct technological progress over time, a cash flow statement for the development project, and market share estimates. Following initial model development, a sensitivity analysis was performed on a subset of model inputs to determine, first, if the BTD could be used to answer analysis questions of interest to BETO, and second, which of the inputs considered were most influential on bioproduct success. Results indicate that the BTD can be used to identify scenarios that enable bioproduct development, and that 'soft' or semi-quantitative factors play a large role in determining if a bioproduct will reach the market. A workshop was also held for subject-matter experts and prospective BTD users in July 2018. The workshop covered BTD model logic, input data and assumptions as well as the sensitivity analysis results and a discussion of potential use cases. Workshop feedback was used to identify additional model development tasks and was incorporated into a draft technical report completed in September 2018. BTD model development, validation and application will continue through 2019.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Statistical analysis of historic hydrocarbon production data from Gulf of Mexico oil and gas fields and application to dynamic capacity assessment in CO 2 storage

Numerical modeling of CO 2 injection and reservoir flow is typically performed to forecast the number of wells, sustainable injection rates, and total storage volume (or mass). A critical determination for CO 2 storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is characterization of reservoir compartmentalization which informs boundary conditions in simulating injection scenarios. Constraining boundary conditions during CO 2 injection into geological formations is a key factor for feasible deployment project. Production history data from 616 wells in 100 oil and gas fields from Gulf of Mexico (GOM) offshore basin can be used to evaluate boundary conditions and total production (oil and gas) and therefor constrain the capacity for potential carbon storage. In general, the combination of decline curve analysis and statistical analysis (to specify constraining boundary conditions) allows the determination of the range of reservoir performance if existing inactive production wells in GOM area of study are used reversibly for CO 2 injection. To constrain the mass of CO 2 which can be injected, it is useful to consider estimates of cumulative bulk (hydrocarbon + brine) production (CBP), which can be converted to equivalent CO 2 mass considering reservoir conditions. Summary CBP statistics are presented as a probability of non-exceedance (PNE), providing a forecast of likely injection rates and masses for other located CO 2 storage projects with similar geology and boundary conditions in the future. The 50% PNE for Equivalent CO 2 is a novel quantitative approach to investigate the possible injection capacity in CO 2 storage projects. The PNE sensitivity analysis shows that reservoir age, drive mechanism, reservoir trap, and reservoir porosity are the key controlling parameters for productivity and consequently optimum CO 2 storage capacity. Furthermore another key finding is the negligible correlation between CBP with reservoir transmissivity and porosity, which implies that other factors than just petrophysical parameters should be studied as constraining factors for CO 2 storage statistical analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗