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At least 811 records · Page 45

The Theory and Practice of Estimating the Accuracy of Dynamic Flight-Determined Coefficients

Means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data are discussed. The most commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are derived and compared from both statistical and simplified geometrics standpoints. The accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data, with an emphasis on practical considerations, such as modeling error. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies due to colored noise and modeling error are presented. The corrected Cramer-Rao bound is shown to be the best available analytical predictor of accuracy, and several practical examples of the use of the Cramer-Rao bound are given. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗

Prediction and quickening in perspective flight displays for curved landing approaches

In an empirical test of various prediction and quickening display algorithms, 18 professional pilot-subjects made four curved-path landing approaches in a GAT-2 simulator using each of 18 dynamically different display configurations in a within-subject design. Results indicate that second- and third-order predictor displays provide the best lateral performance. Intermediate levels of prediction and quickening provide best vertical control. Prediction quickening algorithms of increasing computational order significantly reduce aileron, rudder, and elevator control responses, reflecting successive reductions in cockpit work load. Whereas conventional crosspointer displays are not adequate for curved landing approaches, perspective displays with predictors and some vertical dimension quickening are highly effective.

Jensen, R. S.↗

Rainfall results of the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment, 1970-76

The Florida Area Cumulus Experiment of 1970-76 (FACE-1) is a single-area, randomized, exploratory experiment to determine whether seeding cumuli for dynamic effects (dynamic seeding) can be used to augment convective rainfall over a substantial target area in south Florida. Rainfall is estimated using S-band radar observations after adjustment by raingages. The two primary response variables are rain volumes in the total target (TT) and in the floating target (FT), the most intensely treated portion of the target. The experimental unit is the day and the main observational period is the 6 h after initiation of treatment. Analyses without predictors suggest apparent increases in both the location and the dispersion characteristics of rainfall due to seeding in the FT and TT variables with substantial statistical support for the FT results and lesser statistical support for the TT results. Analyses of covariance using meteorologically meaningful predictor variables suggest a somewhat larger effect of seeding with stronger statistical support. These results are interpreted in terms of the FACE conceptual model.

Woodley, W. L.↗

Real time prediction of marine vessel motions using Kalman filtering techniques

The present investigation is concerned with the prediction of the future behavior of a vessel within some confidence bounds at a specific instant of time, taking into account an interval of a few seconds. The ability to predict accurately the motions of a vessel can reduce significantly the probability of failure of operations in rough seas. The investigation was started as part of an effort to ensure safe landing of aircraft on relatively small vessels. However, the basic principles involved in the study are the same for any offshore operation, such as carbo transfer in the open sea, structure installation, and floating crane operation. The Kalman filter is a powerful tool for achieving the goals of the prediction procedure. Attention is given to a linear optimal predictor, the equations of motion of the vessel, the wave spectrum, rational approximation, the use of Kalman filter and predictor in an application for a ship, and the motions of a semisubmersible.

Triantafyllou, M. S.↗

Crop weather models of barley and spring wheat yield for agrophysical units in North Dakota

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate barley yield and spring wheat yield from weather data for Agrophysical units(APU) in North Dakota. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU models show sight improvements in some of the statistics of the models, e.g., explained variation. These models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. The comparison will indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

Leduc, S.↗

Review of Teleoperator Research

A predictor display to overcome time lag problems with remote control systems is discussed. The video picture is a (necessarily) time-delayed picture from the remote location, generated as a coherent frame (snapshot) so that all picture elements in a single scan are delayed the same. The computer-generated graphics is a line drawing of the present configuration of the manipulator arm, vehicle or other device. The latter is generated by using the same control signals which are sent to the remote manipulator (device) to drive a computer model of it. The computer model is drawn on the video display in exactly the same location as where it will actually be after a one-way time delay and where it will be seen to be on the video after one round-trip time delay. If one waits at least one round-trip delay without moving, both the graphics model and the video picture of the manipulator (device) are seen to coincide. The predictor technque proved to work well and was shown for time delays in the 1-3 second range to reduce completion times for a variety of manipulation tasks by 50-150 percent reliably.

Sheridan, T. B.↗

Exploring the use of structural models to improve remote sensing agricultural estimates

Satellite estimates of agricultural characteristics often are not sufficiently precise for reliable use in small geographical regions. The precision of estimates of agricultural characteristics such as crop proportions and leaf area indexes can be increased by modeling ground observations as a function of satellite estimates. Linear regression models using least squares estimators of the model parameters are most often advocated as an appropriate methodology; however, least squares estimation requires that the predictor variables are measured without error, an unreasonable assumption for this application. An alternative estimation methodology which assumes that both the response variables (ground observations) and the predictor variables (satellite estimates) are measured with error involves the use of linear structural models. The application of linear structural models to the estimation of agricultural characteristics using satellite spectral measurements is examined.

Gunst, R. F.↗

Designing Estimator/Predictor Digital Phase-Locked Loops

Signal delays in equipment compensated automatically. New approach to design of digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) incorporates concepts from estimation theory and involves decomposition of closed-loop transfer function into estimator and predictor. Estimator provides recursive estimates of phase, frequency, and higher order derivatives of phase with respect to time, while predictor compensates for delay, called "transport lag," caused by PLL equipment and by DPLL computations.

Statman, J. I.↗

Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

Schweickert, Richard↗

Multiplier-continuation algorthms for constrained optimization

Several path following algorithms based on the combination of three smooth penalty functions, the quadratic penalty for equality constraints and the quadratic loss and log barrier for inequality constraints, their modern counterparts, augmented Lagrangian or multiplier methods, sequential quadratic programming, and predictor-corrector continuation are described. In the first phase of this methodology, one minimizes the unconstrained or linearly constrained penalty function or augmented Lagrangian. A homotopy path generated from the functions is then followed to optimality using efficient predictor-corrector continuation methods. The continuation steps are asymptotic to those taken by sequential quadratic programming which can be used in the final steps. Numerical test results show the method to be efficient, robust, and a competitive alternative to sequential quadratic programming.

Lundberg, Bruce N.↗

Vector excitation coding with dynamic bit allocation

Vector excitation coding (VXC) has shown promise for digital transmission of fairly high communications quality speech at low bit rates, but current version of the algorithm still suffer from audible degradations, particularly at 4.8 kb/s. The authors examine the technique of dynamic bit allocation (DBA) to improve the performance of VXC for a given bit rate. The approach is based on the observation that the minimum bit rate needed to code adequately both the long-term and short-term predictors in VXC varies dynamically with time. Therefore, in frames where fewer bits suffice for the predictors, the unneeded bits can be reallocated to other coder parameter sets such as excitation vectors. By dynamically distributing available bits among the different coder parameter sets while keeping the total number of bits in each frame fixed, it is possible to improve overall coder performance without increasing bit rate.

Yong, Mei↗

Context dependent prediction and category encoding for DPCM image compression

Efficient compression of image data requires the understanding of the noise characteristics of sensors as well as the redundancy expected in imagery. Herein, the techniques of Differential Pulse Code Modulation (DPCM) are reviewed and modified for information-preserving data compression. The modifications include: mapping from intensity to an equal variance space; context dependent one and two dimensional predictors; rationale for nonlinear DPCM encoding based upon an image quality model; context dependent variable length encoding of 2x2 data blocks; and feedback control for constant output rate systems. Examples are presented at compression rates between 1.3 and 2.8 bits per pixel. The need for larger block sizes, 2D context dependent predictors, and the hope for sub-bits-per-pixel compression which maintains spacial resolution (information preserving) are discussed.

Beaudet, Paul R.↗

Global nonlinear optimization of spacecraft protective structures design

The global optimization of protective structural designs for spacecraft subject to hypervelocity meteoroid and space debris impacts is presented. This nonlinear problem is first formulated for weight minimization of the space station core module configuration using the Nysmith impact predictor. Next, the equivalence and uniqueness of local and global optima is shown using properties of convexity. This analysis results in a new feasibility condition for this problem. The solution existence is then shown, followed by a comparison of optimization techniques. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is presented to determine the effects of variations in the systemic parameters on optimal design. The results show that global optimization of this problem is unique and may be achieved by a number of methods, provided the feasibility condition is satisfied. Furthermore, module structural design thicknesses and weight increase with increasing projectile velocity and diameter and decrease with increasing separation between bumper and wall for the Nysmith predictor.

Mog, R. A.↗

Geometric programming prediction of design trends for OMV protective structures

The global optimization trends of protective honeycomb structural designs for spacecraft subject to hypervelocity meteroid and space debris are presented. This nonlinear problem is first formulated for weight minimization of the orbital maneuvering vehicle (OMV) using a generic monomial predictor. Five problem formulations are considered, each dependent on the selection of independent design variables. Each case is optimized by considering the dual geometric programming problem. The dual variables are solved for in terms of the generic estimated exponents of the monomial predictor. The primal variables are then solved for by conversion. Finally, parametric design trends are developed for ranges of the estimated regression parameters. Results specify nonmonotonic relationships for the optimal first and second sheet mass per unit areas in terms of the estimated exponents.

Mog, R. A.↗

Digital codec for real-time processing of broadcast quality video signals at 1.8 bits/pixel

The authors present the hardware implementation of a digital television bandwidth compression algorithm which processes standard NTSC (National Television Systems Committee) composite color television signals and produces broadcast-quality video in real time at an average of 1.8 b/pixel. The sampling rate used with this algorithm results in 768 samples over the active portion of each video line by 512 active video lines per video frame. The algorithm is based on differential pulse code modulation (DPCM), but additionally utilizes a nonadaptive predictor, nonuniform quantizer, and multilevel Huffman coder to reduce the data rate substantially below that achievable with straight DPCM. The nonadaptive predictor and multilevel Huffman coder combine to set this technique apart from prior-art DPCM encoding algorithms. The authors describe the data compression algorithm and the hardware implementation of the codec and provide performance results.

Shalkhauser, Mary JO↗

January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗

Mechanical response tissue analyzer for estimating bone strength

One of the major concerns for extended space flight is weakness of the long bones of the legs, composed primarily of cortical bone, that functions to provide mechanical support. The strength of cortical bone is due to its complex structure, described simplistically as cylinders of parallel osteons composed of layers of mineralized collagen. The reduced mechanical stresses during space flight or immobilization of bone on Earth reduces the mineral content, and changes the components of its matrix and structure so that its strength is reduced. Currently, the established clinical measures of bone strength are indirect. The measures are based on determinations of mineral density by means of radiography, photon absorptiometry, and quantitative computer tomography. While the mineral content of bone is essential to its strength, there is growing awareness of the limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially osteoporosis. Other experimental methods in clinical trials that more directly evaluate the physical properties of bone, and do not require exposure to radiation, include ultrasound, acoustic emission, and low-frequency mechanical vibration. The last method can be considered a direct measure of the functional capacity of a long bone since it quantifies the mechanical response to a stimulus delivered directly to the bone. A low frequency vibration induces a response (impedance) curve with a minimum at the resonant frequency, that a few investigators use for the evaluation of the bone. An alternative approach, the method under consideration, is to use the response curve as the basis for determination of the bone bending stiffness EI (E is the intrinsic material property and I is the cross-sectional moment of inertia) and mass, fundamental mechanical properties of bone.

Arnaud, Sara B.↗